Wednesday December 17, 2003
 

TRANSACTION ACTION

SETH’S FREE AGENT LIST

WOLVES WIN

VIKINGS/PLAYOFF THOUGHTS
PHONY SITUATION

CONSPIRACY THEORY???

If you happen to go over to the Twins Fan Forum at Fanhome.com, there was an interesting thought posted by someone named “Walter.” I have notice of late that the individual is incredibly down on the Twins, Carl Pohlad and especially Terry Ryan. All of this negativity has apparently led to a conspiracy theory:

Here's a conspiracy theory for ya-Pohlad knows he's done everything possible to retract the efforts of a stadium drive in 2004, and it seems to have been performed on purpose, doesn't it? After all, this would've been the season, Carl-your one shot at getting one passed. The economy's improving, your Gov wants it done, etc. This defines logic, Carl.
I now believe the Twins weren't aggressive on orders from MLB, as one needs only to look at Milwaukee and the East Coast to summarize the imbalance that baseball just simply cannot fix. Even if a stadium bill is ever passed, the Twins and all other small markets can't compete. Look at Milw, Cinc, and Pitt for proof on this one. The stadium bill will never be the answer, and the new agreement was a joke, in terms of restricting the activity of the big markets. So why would baseball want to continue having its owners push for new stadiums in smaller markets when it's not making a difference anywhere?
Baseball understands they've created a monster that cannot be fixed, and they simply cannot keep having their owners get new stadiums and yet spend no more $ than they ever have. The system isn't working; some have to go, just as was their plan years back. The difference, however, is that in 2006 they'll be able to do so with very little restrictions. If the Twins do not sign Santana to an extension this spring, or Lohsee next year, etc, etc, you will have some proof this may indeed be on the books. MN, TB, A's, Mont-code red alert
 

SETH’S THOUGHTS

So, essentially Carl Pohlad is being told by major league baseball to do whatever is necessary to ensure that a new stadium is not built for the Twins? I think that “Walter” makes some good points. I do think that this would be a great year to really go hard after a stadium bill. The team has won two consecutive AL Central Division titles. They had developed an identity within the community with the help of good players and good people. Good people who were visible in the community and who had great charisma. So now Eddie Guardado is gone. LaTroy Hawkins is gone. AJ Pierzynski is gone. Dustan Mohr is gone. Eric Milton is gone. And the reason they are gone is because Carl Pohlad is under the instruction of Major League Baseball to not get a stadium.

And the next step would be for the team to be contracted, right? When the player’s union and the owners agreed to their new deal, part of it said that Contraction can not happen again until 2007. Since the Twins won’t get a new stadium, and they will have a really low payroll, they won’t be able to compete with the big market teams, so they would continue to be a logical choice for contraction. Sure, Bud Selig’s Milwaukee Brewers are playing a pathetic little game of limbo, trying to see how low their salaries can go. Who knows if the Montreal Expos situation will be worked out by then? So, the Twins probably still be a logical choice for contraction in 2007.

However, how could anyone right now think that Carl Pohlad doesn’t want a new stadium? Let’s be honest, Carl Pohlad is a rich billionaire for a reason. He wouldn’t be in the business of owning the Twins if he were really losing money as he claims so frequently. Would a new stadium mean additional revenues for him? Of course! But how, when we’ve seen what happened in Milwaukee?

Well, I believe that, with Terry Ryan as the GM, he has shown the ability to build a strong team. Even with all of the losses the Twins have encountered this offseason, I have no doubt that they will compete, if not run away with, the AL Central in 2004 (check out the poem saying that). The key is to have a competitive team when you enter your new stadium. The Cleveland Indians showed how that was done when they opened Jacobs Field. They had signed the likes of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Roberto Alomar, Jim Thome and other players who were able to win the division for years. The Brewers had two good players, Richie Sexson and Geoff Jenkins and a team with the ability to lose 100 games. Sure, Miller Park sold out for the first year because of the novelty of the new stadium. But at that point, you really need to build a winner to keep the fans. The same thing happened in Pittsburgh. In Cincinnati, injuries to their whole outfield also helped keep the team from winning.

The Twins Geek has written some great articles recently about the Twins, Carl Pohlad, the budget and Terry Ryan. In it, he makes the point – To make money, you have to spend money.  In other words, if Mr. Pohlad were to invest some additional funds into his team, more fans would come to games.

Look at this example that Kirk Beller and I e-mailed back and forth a while back, discussing that the Twins should try to sign Vlad Guerrero. Let’s look at the variables if he adds $5 million to the payroll (if a few changes are made in addition to his signing). Vlad Guerrero is a player who will bring in fans. He will help the team win both offensively and defensively. Let’s estimate an additional 5,000 fans per game (to go from 21,000 to 26,000 fans a game isn’t unrealistic). I may be low in my estimate that the average Twin ticket is $20. So, for each game, there is an additional $100,000 in ticket sales. There are 81 home games in a season, so that is an additional $8.1 million in tickets alone. That doesn’t factor in concessions or parking, or luxury suites or… Wait a Minute! Because the Twins play in the Metrodome, they don’t get any of that revenue.

So, they get a new stadium, they can earn all of that additional revenue from having a winning team with a new stadium. They can use that revenue to pay more in salaries because, as we discussed above, To Make Money You have to Spend Money. The additional money spent should help the team continue to contend and continue to draw crowds.

Then add in Terry Ryan’s ability to scout and judge talent. A bigger budget, along with a group of prospects to plug into the lineup, or use as trade bait, and you’re talking about doing exactly what the Indians did in the mid-‘90s.

But what is the main reason that I don’t think there is any conspiracy? Victory Sports One, the Twins-owned television network that started up in October. They are really struggling to get cable companies and satellite TV companies to purchase the rights to their station. Right now, they are giving cable companies the station for free through the Gophers basketball season, and those companies still aren’t taking them up on the offer. Why? Because they are not willing to pick up the $2+ cost per customer to carry the station. Those who are reading this site should really go to their local cable company, or e-mail them, or call them and ensure that you will get Victory Sports before the Twins season starts so you don’t miss any games!

But, why do I bring all of that up? Carl Pohlad owns that network. If he can get a stadium, develop a winning team and have a TV network, imagine how much he can get for those entities? Instead of the $150 million he would get from baseball to contract the team, he could probably get 2 or 3 times that value for the three entities!

So, no, I don’t think that there is really a conspiracy to keep the team down so as to not get a stadium. I really don’t see that as making sense.

I do think that Mr. Pohlad wants us to think that he is losing a lot of money and hence won’t anti up any more money to keep his players. I do think that the Twins have convinced its fan base that Minneapolis is a small market city (it’s the 12^th largest market in America!), and therefore, unable to compete with the likes of New York or Boston. However, there are two points to be made regarding that. First, the Marlins, with a $55 million team in a smaller market than ours won this year’s World Series. Secondly, as I have mentioned on numerous occasions on this site, I think that the Twins ceiling is higher with the players they are choosing to keep along with the prospects that will be brought up. AJ Pierzynski was replaceable by Joe Mauer. Jacque Jones, should he be traded for good, young pitching, is replaceable by the Twins depth of prospects including Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, Mike Ryan and Lew Ford (not to mention Jason Kubel, Josh Rabe and others at lower levels of the minor leagues eventually, like James Tomlin and Alex Romero). Twins fans don’t want to hear it, but Doug Mientkiewicz is replaceable by Justin Morneau.

The AL Centreal is going to be absolutely terrible. The White Sox are not getting better. The Royals are adding a bunch of average players. The Indians are probably still a year away. And the Tigers are, well, the Tigers.

So Twins fans, what should you do now and over the next couple of months. Be supportive of the Twins. Be positive. Try to understand why moves are being made. Don’t blame Terry Ryan! Call your local cable or satellite TV companies and pester them to sign up for Victory Sports to make sure we can all watch the team when the season starts! If you want, e-mail me and I can post your thoughts on here, where maybe the right people will read it. I’d love to hear from both sides on these issues. I think it is an interesting debate.
 

TRANSACTION ACTION

THE AROD SAGA CONTINUES

It looks like this trade is about to happen, maybe even as early as today. Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez, his agent and the Red Sox owner, John Henry, met with the Player’s Union in New York. The reason that would be done is because that probably means A-Rod is going to be altering his contract, probably deferring much of his salary. This meeting makes me believe that it really is about to be done. It really is a matter or WHEN, not IF, this trade will happen. The domino affect that it will create is what is really interesting.

In the deal, Alex Rodriguez will be sent from Texas to Boston in exchange for Manny Ramirez and some money to pay part of Ramirez deal. Next, Nomar Garciaparra would be sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers, possibly for Lefty Odalis Perez. Perez would then join the Red Sox rotation, joining Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield. Wow! But that isn’t it. The Rangers have a deal worked out with 2B Todd Walker that will be signed pending the completion of the trade. Michael Young would then move over to SS for the Rangers.

MARINERS GET VIZQUEL BACK

In 1993, the Seattle Mariners traded their shortstop, Omar Vizquel to the Cleveland Indians for shortstop Felix Fermin. (there’s a good name for baseball fans!) Not one of the Mariners best moves ever. Yesterday, they made a similar unwise move, but may be lucky enough to get out of it.

The Mariners dealt their shortstop Carlos Guillen to the Indians in exchange for Omar Vizquel. I can’t say that I understand this trade at all. Carlos Guillen is young and making just $2.5 million next season. He’s a solid defensive shortstop and a good hitter. Omar Vizquel is 36 years old, will make $6 million next season and is coming off a year where he missed a lot of games do to two bad knees! Great trade for the Indians. I’m totally not sure what the Mariners are thinking!

To update this deal, Omar Vizquel’s knees failed his physical yesterday, so the trade is currently on hold. I would think the Mariners would want to undo this deal and rethink it!

LOFTON AND SHEFFIELD ARE YANKEES

Bernie Williams will be the Yankees Designated Hitter next season. The Yankees will officially (finally!) announce their new RF Gary Sheffield. But they have also signed their new CF Kenny Lofton to a two-year contract. Why Kenny Lofton? I don’t know. That pretty much tells us that the Soriano for Beltran deal is off, I guess. But also, he becomes the first real leadoff hitter the Yankees have had in a long time. Clearly Alfonso Soriano is as much a leadoff hitter as Jacque Jones is. Derek Jeter doesn’t do poorly in the leadoff spot either. But Kenny Lofton is a great leadoff hitter.

Bernie Williams will be able to move to DH, which is important because with his knees and shoulders, CF was not a good place for him. Lofton is far from gold glove caliber any more, but he will at least cover more ground.

So, how does that Yankees daily lineup look now? How’s this:

C – Jorge Posada, 1B – Jason Giambi, 2B – Alfonso Soriano, 3B – Aaron Boone, SS – Derek Jeter, LF – Hideki Matsui, CF – Kenny Lofton, RF – Gary Sheffield, DH – Bernie Williams.

That’s a pretty solid lineup. The weak spot would be Boone at 3B, but he is not as bad as he looked with the Yankees last year. I think he’ll play well next year. That is a potent lineup. Oh, and this is their pitching rotation; Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras and probably David Wells (or Jon Lieber, although coming back from Tommy John surgery, it may not be bad to bring him along slowly). And yes, that bullpen of Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill, Felix Heredia and Gabe White setting up Mariano Rivera is pretty good too.

Two problems are pretty obvious though. They are not a young team. Only Soriano, at 26, is under thirty. When Kevin Brown or Mike Mussina is your 4^th starter, that’s pretty good too.

NEU PITCHER FOR MARLINS

Last night, the Marlins traded their 4^th starter, Mark Redman to the Oakland A’s for setup man, Mike Neu. This is almost an unusual trade. I can understand the Marlins letting Redman go. He had a solid season for them in 2004, but is no more than their 4^th starter. He doesn’t put up great numbers at all, however, he finds a way to win. He will probably be getting a decent raise through arbitration. That’s why I’m surprised the A’s would go after him. That said, they have lost Keith Foulke, Miguel Tejada and Jose Guillen recently, as well as another left-handed pitcher, Ted Lilly. Lilly and Redman are very comparable, not great, but they make it work. Redman will probably become the A’s #5 pitcher, behind Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Rich Harden. That’s a very solid rotation. Justin Duchsherer probably becomes a long reliever.

The Marlins receive a cheap relief pitcher in Mike Neu. He’ll help out the Marlins bullpen.

GUILLEN AN ANGEL?

Jose Guillen has always had and continually earned a bad reputation. Well, now he is an Angel, having signed a 2 year, $6 million contract with Anaheim. He finally was given a shot as a full-time outfielder and he came through big-time. He replaced players in the Reds outfield and became their best hitter. By the trade deadline, he was a very valuable commodity and the A’s traded for him. He played well for them, especially considering the broken hamate bone in his hand. Somehow he continued to play with a soft cast. I actually am surprised that Guillen signed for so little. Good signing for the Angels. They were trying to find an outfielder and Garrett Anderson had said he’d move to RF (with Tim Salmon primarily DHing). Jose Guillen will be able to play RF as he has one of the strongest arms in all of baseball.

SOX FIND SECOND BASEMAN

Mark Bellhorn hit 27 home runs in a partial season in 2002 for the Cubs. Last year, he started as the Cubs 3B and struggled before losing playing time to Lenny Harris of all people. Finally, he was traded to Colorado and the assumption was that he would regain his hitting ability in the light air of the Rocky Mountains. He still didn’t get consistent playing time there. Yesterday, he was traded from the Rockies to the Red Sox for a Player to be Names Later. This could be a huge break for Bellhorn. Best case, he could reclaim his 2001 form and replace Todd Walker at 2B full time. More likely, he will split time there with Damian Jackson or become a utility infielder/pinch hitter. Good deal for the Red Sox.

BARRETT’S TRAVELS

On Monday, Montreal catcher Michael Barrett was traded from the Expos to the Oakland A’s for a player to be named later. The A’s need a catcher so the deal made sense, especially if they could get Barrett signed to a fair extension. Billy Beane must not have seen that happening because yesterday, Barrett was traded from the A’s to the Chicago Cubs, you guessed it, for a player to be named later. I wonder if Michael Barrett has packed a big bag!

Any thoughts on the deals that have happened? Who’s left? Should the Twins try to get anyone? E-mail me your thoughts.
 

SETH’S FREE AGENT LISTS

As you can see, there has been a lot of change in this list since the last time it was updated, two weeks ago. There are still two big-name catchers available. The Twins need a veteran backup catcher. Is there a better option than Joe Girardi? First Base is another very weak position. Look at how bad the 2B position is after Todd Walker. I mean, Luis Rivas had a better season than Roberto Alomar. 3B is terrible! After Aurilia, the SS position is awful. LF and CF are really bad too. RF still has Vlad Guerrero, who has not yet signed with Baltimore. And, the DH position is not that great either.

As you can see, there are three good starting pitchers, one good left-handed reliever and one or two very solid righty relievers remaining available as free agents. After reviewing this list, I can see why Terry Ryan may want to wait until spring to find a few of these guys in a bargain bin somewhere for minor league deals.  I would certainly not overpay for any of them. Any thoughts? E-mail me.
 

WOLVES WIN BIG AGAIN

The Wolves came home last night to the Target Center where they have not played well at all so far this season. They hosted Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets, a very athletic, dangerous team.

The Wolves took an early lead and just build on it as the game continued. They won 92-75 and players were actually able to get some rest. Sam Cassell led the Wolves with 25 points on 11-15 from the field. He added 6 points and 6 rebounds. Kevin Garnett recorded his 20^th double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds (to go with 6 assists, 6 blocked shots and 3 steals), and he actually was only on the floor for 36 minutes! Latrell Sprewell added 14 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.

Next up – a home game Thursday night against the Dallas Mavericks.
 

VIKINGS/PLAYOFF THOUGHTS

PHONY SITUATION

It appears that Joe Horn is going to be fined $30,000 for his cell phone antics on Sunday night. For those that missed it, Horn had four TDs in the Saints blowout win over the Giants. On his second, a in the second quarter, Horn went to the goal post, and with the help of Michael Lewis, pulled a cell phone out and pretended to dial it and talk.
Immediately, we all knew he would be fined by the NFL. $30,000!!! That’s ridiculous! I think that taunting is terrible and I don’t understand the continual need to trash talk, but tell me what is so wrong about what Joe Horn did. He didn’t get in the opponent’s face. He didn’t taunt. He grabbed a cell phone and pretended to talk. That is fun! It’s similar to when Terrell Owens pulled the Sharpie out of his sock and autographed a touchdown ball in the end zone. It’s similar to when Terrell Owens ran through the end zone to the cheerleaders, grabbed some pom-poms and started dancing with them.

The league wants such a blah end zone celebration, I guess. Let me point out that I also like the Marvin Harrisons and Barry Sanders types who just give the ball to the referee, as if they’ve been in the end zone before. I think that’s great! But seriously, what’s wrong with the cell phone thing? Is that really any worse than the Lambeau leap?

The league has curtailed end zone celebrations, and I don’t understand why. As long as it’s not a direct taunt of the other team, I see now harm. And No Harm, No Foul!

What do you think? E-mail me.
 

Well, that’s it for today. I hope you learned lots and enjoyed it all. I’d love to hear some feed back from you. Send me an e-mail with your questions or comments.

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