Tuesday, December 13, 2004

NFL "Expert" Picks

THE SETHSPEAKS

HALL OF FAME BALLOT

 

Good morning! Today, I have plenty of data, stats and opinion on the 29 people who are on this year's Hall of Fame ballot. But just quickly beforehand, I need to point out a couple of things.

OK, that is enough seriousness. Let's get to the baseball talk!

 

It is that time of year again. A couple of weeks ago, Major League Baseball  published the names of all of the players on the Hall of Fame ballot. Of course, every year this topic brings up so much debate. What constitutes a Hall of Famer? Is it solely about the numbers? Is it about the special numbers like 3,000 hits, 500 home runs or 300 Wins? How do you quantify dominance? This year, there are 29 players on the ballot, thirteen of them are on the ballot for the first time. To be on the ballot, the player must have logged over ten years of service time in the Major Leagues. To be inducted into baseball's Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the vote. To stay on the ballot, a player must receive votes from at least 5% of the voters. The voters are the Baseball Writers Association of American members who are the writers from around the country who have covered baseball for at least ten years. This alone makes for a series of further questions about the validity of the Hall of Fame vote. What if a player was great, but was surly with the media? How many will not vote for that guy? What if a guy played in obscurity in Montreal or somewhere and an American League reporter never got to see him play? What if there are voters who never actually saw any of these players play? No player, including greats like Willie Mays and Hank Aaron, did not receive 100% of the vote, which is ludicrous to me.

 

I really do wish that I had a Hall of Fame vote because I think it is an honor and a privilege and that it should be taken very seriously. Today, I will look at the 29 players on the ballot and discuss their careers. I should point out that for the players returning to the ballot, I have just re-posted what I wrote about them a year ago. I do that because I believe that a player is either a Hall of Fame player or not, and in the time from when they first show up on the ballot until the next year, they do nothing to improve what they did in their career. Remember last year, Wade Boggs was elected into the Hall of Fame on his first try. Ryne Sandberg had to wait a few years on the ballot before he received the necessary 75% of the vote.

 

Before you go on, please go to The Baseball Analysts site where Rich Lederer has started Bert Blyleven Week! He has already lined up a couple of guest columnists for the week, so it should be great reading.

 

Let's get to it. At the end, I will have Comments and would encourage you to post there, but also feel free to send me an e-mail with your thoughts.

 HALL OF FAME BALLOT –

 The Returners

Let's first look at the guys who have been on the ballot for multiple years (the first-year ballot guys are found below). Remember that a player can be on the ballot for up to 15 years before they are removed from it. They are then eligible for the Veteran's Committee vote after five more years. Again, I would love to hear your comments on my thoughts, so please e-mail me. (Note - Updates will be noted. They only other alterations from the previous year's posting will be a player's age or updating of statistics of current players)

Bert Blyleven - Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, California Angels

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

22

692

685

4970

287

250

0

3.31

4632

2029

1830

1322

3701

118

How is it possible that the 54 year old Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Famer? Two World Series Championships (’79 with the Pirates, ’87 with the Twins). 9th on the All-Time Shutout list with 60. When Bert Blyleven retired, he was 3rd on the All-Time strikeout list with 3,701 strikeouts. He is still 5th place on that list:

1.)      Nolan Ryan  5,714

2.)      Roger Clemens  4,502

3.)      Randy Johnson  4,372

4.)      Steve Carlton  4,136

5.)      Bert Blyleven  3,701

6.)      Tom Seaver  3,640

7.)      Don Sutton  3,574

8.)      Gaylord Perry  3,534

9.)      Walter Johnson  3,509

10.)   Phil Niekro  3,342

11.)   Fergie Jenkins  3,192

12.)   Bob Gibson  3,117

13.) Greg Maddux  3,052

14.) Pedro Martinez 2,861

(UPDATE - I added Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez who are #13 and #14 respectively because I think we know that they are first-ball Hall of Fame pitchers as well.) I think we all know that Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson will be first-ballot Hall of Famers.  So, no pitcher with more than 3,000 career strikeouts is NOT in the Hall of Fame… except one, Bert Blyleven. Why does that make sense? Why don’t voters vote for him? If he had not played those couple of years for bad Cleveland teams and somehow won 13 more ball games, there would be absolutely no question that Bert Blyleven would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Let’s take a quick look at the 10 players that Baseball Reference says are most similar to Bert Blyleven:

1.)      Don Sutton

2.)      Gaylord Perry

3.)      Fergie Jenkins

4.)      Tommy John

5.)      Robin Roberts

6.)      Tom Seaver

7.)      Jim Kaat

8.)      Early Wynn

9.)      Phil Niekro

10.)   Steve Carlton

From that list, all but Tommy John and Jim Kaat have already been inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame. So as I’ve asked before, someone please explain to me how Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Fame pitcher. If you know, please, e-mail me.

Please remember to check out both Bert Blyleven's website and the wonderful Blyleven for Hall of Fame article by Rich Lederer from a year ago! (UPDATE - and add the site Bert Belongs to your favorites as well!)

Dave Concepcion - Cincinnati Reds

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

19

2488

8723

993

2326

389

48

101

950

736

1186

0.267

0.322

0.357

321

88

A member of four World Series teams with the vaunted Big Red Machine. The team won championships in 1975 and 1976. Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez have already been inducted from those teams, so I’m sure that’s why he’s still on the ballot. A very solid shortstop for a lot of years, Concepcion was a nine-time All-Star. He was an above average shortstop earning five Gold Glove Awards. A solid performer for some very good teams, but the Hall is for the best of the best!

Andre Dawson - Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Florida Marlins

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

21

2627

9927

1373

2774

503

98

438

1591

589

1509

0.279

0.323

0.482

314

119

Hawk had a pretty solid career and you have to wonder what it could have been with two healthy knees! Dawson won eight Gold Glove Awards and was a All-Star eight times as well. He won the 1987 NL MVP despite his Chicago Cubs finishing in last place. Two other times he finished second in MVP voting. His 438 homers rank 29th all-time and his 1,591 RBI ranks him 28th.  Was Andre Dawson a great player? Yes! Was he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so, but he’s close enough that he will remain on the ballot for the duration.

Steve Garvey - Los Angeles, San Diego Padres

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

19

2332

8835

1143

2599

440

43

272

1308

479

1003

0.294

0.329

0.446

83

116

Steve Garvey actually put up some very good career numbers. He was a 10 time All-Star. He was 0-3 in his World Series appearances with the Dodgers in the 1970s, but then the team won the 1981 World Series. He then went to San Diego where his team lost in the 1984 World Series. As solid a hitter as Garvey was, he was probably a better defensive player. He won just four Gold Glove Awards, but he held a career .996 Fielding percentage. His 9.04 Range Factor was well above the 7.96 league average. Another good thing about Garvey, he played almost every day and still holds the National League record for consecutive games played!

Rich Gossage – Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

22

1002

37

1809.3

124

107

310

3.01

1497

670

605

732

1502

126

Goose Gossage was intimidating, mustache and all!  Along with Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter, Gossage needs to be judged different than most other pitchers. They were closers before the current closer role was defined. They would pitch 2-3 innings frequently throughout the year. They would come into tie games or when the team was ahead or behind. And, of the three, I think that Gossage was the best. Fingers is already in the Hall, and Sutter is approaching receiving the necessary votes. He was a 9 time All-Star. His 310 saves are 13th on the all-time list, and Fingers is the only pitcher from his era above him. He even won a World Series ring with the Yankees in 1978. He appeared in the 1981 World Series with the Yankees and the ’84 Series with the Padres, but his teams lost in both cases.

Tommy John – Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles, New York Yankees, California Angels, Oakland A’s

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

26

760

700

4710.3

288

231

4

3.34

4783

2017

1749

1259

2245

111

Tommy John is another interesting case for the Hall of Fame. He has some pretty impressive numbers, but a lot of them were accumulated because he pitched for so long. Of course, he is best known as having an arm surgery named after him. But he came back from that and continued to pitch well for almost 15 more seasons. John was named to four All-Star teams. Two times he finished second in the Cy Young Award vote. His teams lost the three World Series that John was part of (’77 and ‘78 Dodgers, ’81 Yankees). Again, just 12 more wins would probably ensure him a spot in Cooperstown, but his 288 wins still ranks 24th all-time.

Don Mattingly - New York Yankees

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

14

1785

7003

1007

2153

442

20

222

1099

588

444

0.307

0.358

0.471

14

127

There was quite a bit of discussion on this site after Don Mattingly was named the Yankees new hitting coach two years ago. A six time All-Star. Nine Gold Glove Awards. Donnie Baseball was the 1985 AL MVP, just beating out George Brett. In 1986, he finished second behind Roger Clemens in the MVP voting.  Injuries definitely hurt his career the last five or six years, but he refused to miss much playing time because of it. He was the heart and soul of some bad ‘80s Yankees teams.

Willie McGee - St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland A's, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox

UPDATE - Wade Boggs was the only first-year guy to make the Hall of Fame last year. McGee was the only other first-year player to get the necessary 5% vote to remain on the ballot another year.

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

18

   2,201

7,649

1,010

   2,254

   350

       94

   79

   856

448

   1,238

0.295

0.333

0.396

352

100

Not much was more painful to watch than seeing Willie McGee hobble and struggle to find his way to the batter's box. But once he got into the box, he was an excellent hitter! And even later in his career as a part-timer and pinch hitter, he was a professional hitter. In 1985, he led the National League with a .353 batting average and was named league MVP. Best known for his years with the speedy Cardinals lineup, McGee left the team in 1990, but came back in 1996 for his final four seasons. McGee played in four All-Star games. He won three Gold Gloves in the outfield. He led the league in batting average twice. And he stole a lot of bases! He also played on the Cardinals World Series championship team in 1982. He was on the Cardinals teams that lost to the Royals in 1985 and the Twins in 1987 in the World Series. He also was on the A's team that lost the 1990 World Series. McGee may be an underrated player. Even his OPS+ is 100, meaning very average! But fans know what he did, and even though it didn't mean he hit for a lot of power, he contributed a lot to some winning teams! 

Jack Morris - Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

18

549

527

3824

254

186

0

3.90

3567

1815

1657

1390

2478

105

Twins fans want Jack Morris in the Hall of Fame simply for Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. After Josh Beckett’s Game 6 win against the Yankees in dominant fashion a few years ago, many said that it was the greatest pitching performance in a World Series. Those people are either dumb, or they didn’t see Jack Morris’ 10-inning shutout against the Braves. However, a Hall of Fame plaque is earned for a career, not individual games, no matter how big. Jack Morris was the "winningest" pitcher in the big leagues for the decade of the ‘80s! (Note – he was also the "losingest" pitcher of that decade) A bulldog, Morris wanted to pitch a lot of innings. He pitched in five All-Star games. His 3.90 ERA is quite high for the Hall of Fame, and that 105 ERA+ is just slightly above average. But Morris shined on the big stage. He played on 3 World Series championship teams. First with the Tigers in 1984, then the aforementioned Twins 1991 team and again the following year with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Dale Murphy - Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

18

2180

7960

1197

2111

350

39

398

1266

986

1748

0.265

0.346

0.469

161

121

Dale Murphy always gets talked of as a Hall of Famer. I can’t say I understand that, but he was a very good player for most of a decade with the Braves. He won the 1982 and 1983 NL MVP awards, hitting 36 home runs both years. He actually led the league in home runs the next two years with 36 and 37 homers, respectively. He was a seven time All-Star and a five time Gold Glove winning outfielder, very impressive considering he came up to the Braves a catcher. He had his great years and then his career plummeted and in a hurry. But the career numbers are very good. Maybe if he, instead of Claudell Washington was my favorite player at that time, I would be more biased toward the Murphy vote.

Dave Parker – Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland A’s, Milwaukee Brewers, California Angels, Toronto Blue Jays

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

19

2466

9358

1272

2712

526

75

339

1493

683

1537

0.290

0.339

0.471

154

121

Like Keith Hernandez, drug problems may have cost Parker some time, or at least a break from the media. But Dave Parker was a great all-around hitter. He played on seven All-Star teams. He won three Gold Gloves. He won the 1978 NL MVP Award and finished in the Top 5 in voting five times! He appeared in three World Series. His Sister Sledge “We Are Family” Pirates won the 1979 Series. Then he played on the 1988 and 1989 Oakland A’s teams that lost and then won the World Series.

Jim Rice - Boston Red Sox

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

16

2089

8225

1249

2452

373

79

382

1451

670

1423

0.298

0.352

0.502

58

128

Jim Rice always gets plenty of support from the New England media when he isn’t selected for the Hall of Fame. I agree that he was a great player as well. Good power, good average. Rice played on eight All-Star teams. He won the 1978 AL MVP and finished in the Top 5 in voting six times. He was part of the ’86 Red Sox team that lost the heartbreaking World Series to the Mets. Jim Rice has a very strong OPS+. I’m not convinced that he’s more a Hall of Famer than any of the others on this list, but I am sure he will be the one getting the most coverage by the media!

Lee Smith – Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, California Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

18

1022

6

1289.3

71

92

478

3.03

1133

475

434

486

1251

132

#1 on the All-Time Saves list with 478. Here are the Top 6 in that category:

1.)      Lee Smith  478

2.)      Trevor Hoffman  436

3.)      John Franco  424

4.)      Dennis Eckersley  390

5.)   Mariano Rivera 379

6.)   Jeff Reardon 367

Now, I’m right there with many others that say that the Save is one of the most over-rated statistics in baseball history. But, like the DH, the closer has become a big part of the game of baseball. That was Lee Smith’s role for his career and he did it well. Look at his strikeouts/IP at almost 1.0. Look at his ERA+. Lee Smith was one of the first to redefine the closer role as it is today. He led the league in Saves four times and finished in the top 5 of his league eleven time. Smith was also a seven time All-Star.

Bruce Sutter – Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

12

661

0

1042.3

68

71

300

2.83

879

370

328

309

861

136

Bruce Sutter’s career wasn’t as long as Gossage’s, but it was equally as dominant. 300 saves with a 2.83 career ERA. That 136 ERA+ shows just how strong he was.  A six-time All-Star, Sutter was named the 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner. He finished top 5 for the award four other times. He was also a member of the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals World Series championship team.

Alan Trammell - Detroit Tigers

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

20

2293

8288

1231

2365

412

55

185

1003

850

874

0.285

0.352

0.415

236

110

I have to admit, I totally don’t understand why there are so many people that think that Alan Trammell is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Just look at his numbers. They’re good, but they’re far from earth-shattering. And, I’m a huge supporter of the fact that numbers and stats don’t tell the whole story. This must be a case of that! Trammell was a six time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner for the Tigers. He was also the MVP of the 1984 World Series. One more thing that really sticks in my mind as a reason he should not be a Hall of Famer is his number of games played each season. Starting with his first full season in 1978, here are the number of games Trammell played in through 1996 (139, 142, 146, 105, 157, 142, 139, 149, 151, 151, 128, 121, 146, 101, 29, 112, 76, 74, 66). If you’re a Hall of Famer, you should be averaging less time off each season. His double-play partner, Lou Whitaker, deserves just as much consideration in my mind.

The First-Timers

I like to separate those on the ballot for the first time from the other guys. The reason is that some of these names should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Hall of Fame. However, remember that the criteria to be listed on the ballot is that the player must have accumulated over ten years of big league service time. In other words, these guys all had excellent careers and deserve the recognition. Also, it is fun for me to research some of these players. They all played in the era that I really started enjoying the game more and more. Sometimes though, it is possible to gain a new respect for some of these players. So, in the end, maybe one or two of these guys will even stay on the ballot, but for today, they deserve to have their careers recognized.

Rick Aguilera – New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

16

732

89

1291.3

86

81

318

3.57

1233

568

512

351

1030

117

There are a few closers on the ballot for the first time this year with very similar numbers. Obviously each was good, but HOF caliber? Aguilera wanted to be a starting pitcher in the worst way. He came up with the Mets and recorded double-digit wins his first three years. He came to the Twins in 1989 and made a few starts for the team. But it was as a closer that he became a star. He was the closer on the Twins '91 WS championship team and an All-Star in 1991, 1992 and 1993. He was traded to the Red Sox in July of 1995, but came back to the Twins in 1996 with the intent to be a starter. But in the end, he went back to being a closer the rest of his career. Is he a Hall of Famer? I don't think so. But he is probably the best closer to pitch for the Twins. 

Albert Belle - Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

12

1539

5853

974

1726

389

21

381

1239

683

961

0.295

0.361

0.564

88

143

If you want proof that the Baseball Writers can hold a grudge, look no further than Albert Belle. I guess we'll see. If you look at his numbers, a very strong argument could be made that he was the best hitter in baseball for the decade of the '90s. "Joey" was tough to get along with, it seemed, for the media and sometimes even with his teammates, coaches and even the fans. However, he was a five-time All Star who finished in the Top 3 in MVP voting three times. Unfortunately, a degenerative back injury cost him the final three years of his contract and who knows what numbers he would have accumulated. In those remaining three years, he accumulated almost $38 million from the Orioles to be on their Disabled List. I do not believe Belle should be in the Hall of Fame, but when it comes to hitting, Belle ranks right up there, and to me, he should appear on the ballot for the 15 years. But will he even get to a second ballot?

Will Clark - San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals.

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

15

1976

7173

1186

2176

440

47

284

1205

937

1190

0.303

0.384

0.497

67

138

Along with Ken Griffey Jr., Clark was the owner of one of the sweetest swings in baseball. The way he followed through on a home run ball by watching it fly between his thumb and pointer finger. Clark was not considered a power hitter, but he put up strong power numbers. He had an excellent batter's eye. The 1989 NL MVP was a six time All-Star. He is a high draft pick who really fulfilled all of his promise and expectations. He had such an air of confidence about him that could have been mis-read by many. But he was also a leader, a guy who helped his teams compete for the playoffs. Even his two month stint with the Cardinals at the very end of his career was incredible. When Justin Ahern did his report for us on the Top 100 First basemen of all time, Clark came in fifth. I don't think that he will make the Hall of Fame, and I probably wouldn't vote for him, but I do think he is worthy of more than a few extra looks!

Gary DiSarcina - California and Anaheim Angels

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

12

1086

3744

444

966

186

20

28

355

154

306

0.258

0.292

0.341

47

66

I wonder what percentage of Gary "Little Old Lady from" DiSarcina's career was spent on the Disabled List? He was one of those players who really did very little offensively throughout his career... against everyone but the Twins. He was clearly in the lineup because of his defense, and he was quite good. But it was just one injury after another. He did play in the 1995 All-Star game. Very good player. Too many injuries, which is obviously unfortunate. People always talk about what a great guy, great teammate and great leader he was. He jus is nowhere near All of Fame level.

Alex Fernandez – Chicago White Sox, Florida Marlins

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

10

263

261

1760.3

107

87

0

3.74

1693

804

731

552

1252

114

The top overall pick in the 1990 draft had a very solid big league career. It surprised me to see how well he did simply because he seemed to always be hurt as well. In 1993, he went 18-9 with a 3.13 ERA in 247.3 IP. The next year, he missed some time with arm problems. Then in 1996, he went 16-10 with a 3.45 ERA in 258.7 IP. That should have been a warning sign, but that offseason, he signed a five year, $35 million deal with his hometown Florida Marlins. In 1997, he went 17-12 with a 3.59 ERA in 220.3 IP. He fought injury the next two seasons, and did not play after 2000 (but still got paid!). I feel bad for a guy like this. Many probably consider him a bust because of injuries, but those are not really his fault. When he was healthy, he was excellent, but staying healthy was his problem. Solid career. Not a Hall of Fame one though.

Gary Gaetti - Minnesota Twins, California Angels, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

20

2507

8951

1130

2280

443

39

360

1341

634

1602

0.255

0.308

0.434

96

96

The G-Man was the Twins 1st round pick in 1979 out of Northwest Missouri State and made his big league debut two years later. In his ten seasons with the Twins, he only hit above .260 twice, but he did provide some power hitting 20 or more homers six times. As his power dwindled, he started to switch teams more and play more of a bit role. Every time you thought he was about done, he would have a big year, like 1995 with the Royals when he hit 35 home runs. He was twice an All-Star and a four-time Gold Glove Award winner (all in his Twins days). He was the ALCS MVP in 1987, the year he and the Twins won the championship. Gaetti had a very solid and long career, a career with plenty of merit, just not for the Hall of Fame. He is now the hitting coach for the Astros, and his son Joe is in the Colorado Rockies minor league system.

Dwight Gooden – New York Mets, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, New York Yankees

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

16

430

410

2800.7

194

112

3

3.51

2564

1198

1091

954

2293

110

What could have been!!! New York City in the mid-'80s must have been just a crazy place, especially if you were rich and famous. Gooden won the 1984 NL Rookie of the Year award, and in 1985 won the NL Cy Young. Through his first five years, he went 91-35. Through eight years, he went 132-53. He could throw hard, but he also had an unbelievable curveball. He was a four-time All-Star and league leader in strikeouts. Late in his career, he even threw a no-hitter. But early in his career, he got caught up in the drug season, and it ended up costing him. He was suspended and missed time because of it and injuries maybe caused by it. To this day, he and Daryl Strawberry are still struggling with this. Still, if you look at Gooden's numbers and consider that he was a dominating pitcher in his league for more than a decade, he still has to be looked at. I don't consider him a Hall of Fame pitcher, but he should remain on the ballot for a few years at least.

Ozzie Guillen - Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

16

1993

6686

773

1764

275

69

28

619

239

511

0.264

0.287

0.338

169

69

As a manager, Guillen found a way to lead the White Sox to the 2005 World Series championship! Of course, this vote is judging him as a player, and as a player, he was a very typical shortstop in the '80s and early '90s. He was a solid fielding, light hitting shortstop. Look at his OPS+. That is horrible. And that on-base percentage is down-right embarrassing. However, he lasted in the league a long time, and was even a three-time All-Star and the 1985 AL Rookie of the Year. Late in his career, he was a solid contributor as a role player. As a hitter, I remember him for one at bat. It was in the NLCS with the Braves in 1999. I can't remember who came in to pitch for the Mets, but it was a real hard-thrower. The Braves had a power hitter on the bench, but I said to my dad that they should have Guillen pinch hit because he would put the ball in play and all they needed was a single. He hit the first pitch, a fastball away, into left field, driving in a run. That was the type of hitter he was. He was a decent SS for his era, but far from Hall of Fame.

Orel Hershiser – Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

18

510

466

3130.3

204

115

5

3.48

2939

1366

1211

1007

2014

112

Although he is likely best known for his remarkable 1988 season in which he almost single-handedly led the Dodgers to the World Series title, and had his 59 consecutive scoreless innings and was basically unhittable. He was 23-8 that year with a 2.26 ERA. He won the Cy Young and was named MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series. He even won the Gold Glove that year. But did you remember that he was 19-3 in 1985? Did you know he had double-digit wins 13 times? I would probably not have guessed that he had over 200 wins and 64% win percentage. He was very good, and deserves to have his numbers looked at a few extra times, but he is probably not a Hall of Famer.  

Gregg Jefferies - New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies, Anaheim Angels, Detroit Tigers

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

14

1465

5520

761

1593

300

27

126

663

472

348

0.289

0.344

0.421

196

106

Gregg Jefferies was probably the first guy I realized was a "prospect." With his 1988 Topps Future Stars card release, he was the talk of Beckett Baseball card magazine. He was supposed to be the next big thing. He never really lived up to all of that hype, and I actually think that it followed him throughout his career. But then you look at his numbers and realize that even if he was never a big star (and is nowhere near Hall of Fame caliber), he had a very solid career. He played in a couple of All-Star games and garnered a few MVP votes sometimes. Look again at his walk to strikeout rate. That is incredible. In other words, he was a better than average player and had a very solid career. Maybe it is because he never hit more than 16 homers that people assume he wasn't very good. Maybe it was because he kept getting traded and switching teams? No, he is not a Hall of Fame guy, but he was very good!

Doug Jones – Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Oakland A's

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

16

846

4

1128.3

69

79

303

3.30

1155

465

414

247

909

130

Another closer who quietly put up some great numbers. His ERA+ of 130 is very good. He had an ERA+ of over 150 nine times in his career. He got a lot of saves and pitched a lot of innings. he was a five-time All-Star and frequently got MVP votes. Is he a Hall of Famer? I don't think so, but he was very good for a long time!

Hal Morris - New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

13

1246

3998

535

1216

246

21

76

513

356

548

0.304

0.361

0.433

45

106

The thing I remember was that he could not stand still in the batter's box. I was always coached to keep your back foot planted and still. Morris just walked around in there. But, he could really hit! He played a big role with those Reds teams. He was a regular, but played over 130 games just twice in this career. He was on the 1990 World Series champion Reds team, but he went just 1-14 in the World Series. He was just a good, professional hitter who helped his teams do well. Not a Hall of Fame guy though.

Walt Weiss - Oakland A's, Florida Marlins, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves

Seasons

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

SB

OPS+

14

1246

3998

535

1216

246

21

76

513

356

548

0.304

0.361

0.433

45

106

The A's had had big boppers win Rookie of the Year Awards in 1986 and 1987 and they had Weiss, who was considered by many the front-runner to win the 1988 award. But he was different. I think that he won the award because of his defense more than his .250 batting average. He had the defensive name, but in reality, his fielding percentage was only league average and his range factor was just above average. He was an All-Star for the Braves in 1998. he also fought a lot of injuries throughout his career that hurt his playing time. Like Guillen, Weiss was a quality major leaguer who did a lot of good things. He had a solid career, just not worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.

John Wetteland – Los Angeles Dodgers, Montreal Expos, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

Seasons

G

GS

IP

W

L

S

ERA

H

R

ER

BB

SO

ERA+

12

618

17

765

48

45

330

2.93

616

287

249

252

814

148

Just think, Mariano Rivera set up for Wetteland for the 1996 New York Yankees. That may be what he is best known for, but then you look at his numbers and realize just how incredible and dominant and consistent he was throughout his career. He has strikeouts, wins, saves and the ERA and other peripheral numbers that warrant a third look at his candidacy. In 1996, he won the Rolaids Relief Award and was the World Series MVP. Yet the Yankees were prepared to let him go and trust Rivera with the job. Imagine what would have happened if the current Yankees way of thinking had applied then. What would Rivera's career look like and would Wetteland be the closer of a bunch of World Series champions and be a Hall of Fame lock? I probably would not vote for him, but like others, he deserves his numbers to be checked a few times!

SUMMARY  

Again I can’t stress enough that I think all of these players were incredible (at least better than me, and unless you were a really good big leaguer too, probably you too!)! They stayed in the league for more than a decade. I was surprised with the quality of players that were eligible. I mean, Gooden and Hershiser's career numbers were far better than I though, and the relief core of Doug Jones, Rick Aguilera and John Wetteland all deserve notice. Will Clark may be one of the most underrated players in recent baseball history. This is a very good class of first-ballot guys. A Hall of Fame argument could be made for each. 

SETH’S HALL OF FAME VOTE

As I said, I really wish I had a vote for this honor. I would really take it seriously. I would do my homework, and obviously far more than just what you see above. I would also talk/e-mail with writers or other sources from around the country. Again, as a voter, I would have the ability to vote for up to ten players for the Hall of Fame. Here are my choices:

1.) Bert Blyleven – Pitcher

2.) Goose Gossage – Relief Pitcher

3.) Lee Smith - Relief Pitcher

 

So, there are three of a possible ten votes. I could add up to seven more players, but I don't think that people should vote for 10 just because you can! That said, I struggled in decisions on Bruce Sutter, Will Clark and John Wetteland!

What do you think about my “vote”? Am I on track in my analysis and thoughts? Who am I leaving out that you would want to be included? I’d love to hear your arguments on this topic. I know many will write about their votes and tell you who they think should be selected for the Hall of Fame, so I wanted to get my thoughts out first. Please, send me an e-mail or leave comments and let’s get a discussion going on this Hall of Fame topic. Voters (Baseball Writers of America) have until the end of the month to cast their votes, and the results will be announced in early January. At that time, we will know who the 2006 Hall of Fame Inductees will be.

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

It was actually another very good week for our group. Overall, we were 12-3-1. Not one of the twelve picked fewer than 11 games correctly. We had three people who went 13-3 for the weekly win. They were Trevor Born, Stick & Ball Guy and Melissa Lien. Trevor added a game to his lead meaning he has a three game lead with three weeks to go. He are our up-to-date standings!

(For more on our panel or our picks, check out the NFL "Expert" Picks page here.)

 

 

Final Standings Total Week 14   Over All  
Name Site

W

L Win% W L Win %
Trevor Born Twins Junkie 13 3 81.3% 153 55 73.6%
Cory Hepola KTVH-TV Sports 12 4 75.0% 150 58 72.1%
Seth Stohs SethSpeaks.net 11 5 68.8% 147 61 70.7%
SethSpeaks Panel   12 3 80.0% 143 57 71.5%
Aaron Gleeman Aaron's BB Blog 12 4 75.0% 143 65 68.8%
Mike Brasel Fantasy FB Guru 11 5 68.8% 141 67 67.8%
Stick & Ball Guy Stick & Ball Guy 13 3 81.3% 142 66 68.3%
Will Young Will's Twins Blog 12 4 75.0% 138 70 66.3%
Ben Jacobs Hardball Times 11 5 68.8% 136 72 65.4%
Brent Hanson BrentNet 11 5 68.8% 135 73 64.9%
Melissa Lien SethSpeaks.net 13 3 81.3% 136 72 65.4%
Grant Balfour Twins Relief Pitcher 12 4 75.0% 131 77 63.0%
Kevin Slowey Twins Pitching Prospect 11 5 68.8% 120 88 57.7%

 

And on that note, I will call it a day. Tomorrow, we should be back with another Why Baseball article. If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.

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