Friday, December 9, 2005

Winter Meeting Thoughts

More Winter Thoughts

Vikings Thoughts

NFL "EXPERT" Picks  

Found our Cleanup Hitter

Hey, Good morning everyone! I have a big plan in the coming paragraphs that I think Twins fans will be interested in, so we'll get right to it. There are a number of other topics as well. I will allow comments under a few of the sections, so please feel free to check back and post comments. I am just curious how much the Comments will be used. If you missed any days this week, please be sure to check the links at the bottom of today's entry or go to our Archives.

And please be sure to find out from the KFAN Rube Chat what a typical Torii Hunter Day is like. I haven't laughed this hard for a long time!

LET'S GET IT DONE!

So, I have commented here before that the only three players in baseball that I would give up Francisco Liriano for were Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. But I may just have to add another name to that list. How about Miguel Tejada? We'll get back to that question later.

Yesterday, it was reported that All-Star and former MVP Miguel Tejada has requested a trade from the Baltimore Orioles. I know I'm a dreamer, but I have to admit, that really got me thinking. Would there be any way possible for the Twins to acquire the still-just-29 year old Miguel Tejada? Could he become the big, power-hitting threat that the team needs to plug into their cleanup spot? In the last six years, he has hit .299 with an average of 38 doubles, 30 homers and 119 RBI. He is 29 so he will remain in his prime throughout the remainder of the contract.

I suppose before I allow myself to dream, I have to think about it in real terms. I think the most important and most real terms to the Twins organization is four more years and $48 million. That is a lot of cash, and certainly not a deal that the Twins have been known for. He is owed $10 million in 2006, $12 million in 2007, and $13 million in both 2008 and 2009. In terms of team chemistry. Well, I think we saw what kind of "leader" Torii Hunter was for the Twins last year. Miguel Tejada is a known leader, so he will be big for the team. It is also important to note the he is from Venezuela so he could be incredibly influential on many of his teammates. He has been on winning teams in Oakland and been in the playoffs.

Secondly, why does Tejada want to leave the Orioles? Well, the given reason is that "I've been with the Orioles for two years and things haven't gone in the direction that we were expecting, so I think the best thing will be a change of scenery." I am sure that when he left the A's to join the Orioles, they would have a chance to compete with the Yankees and the Red Sox. Well, that really hasn't happened and despite having an impressive lineup, they have not had the pitching to compete in the division. And now the Blue Jays are showing a willingness to spend and have put themselves ahead of the O's in terms of their chance to win. And the O's show no real direction. I mean, even the Devil Rays seem to have a plan with all of their youth.

Tejada said, "I've done many things with this team and I haven't seen results, and the other teams are getting stronger while the Orioles have not made any signings to strengthen the club." Let's be honest. He is absolutely right. What has Baltimore done this off-season? Yesterday, they signed catcher Ramon Hernandez to a four year, $27.5 million deal. They just signed catcher Javy Lopez to a big contract two years ago. What would make their management decide that they needed Hernandez. Sure, they could have one catch and one DH, but then they need to waste a roster spot on a third catcher so that they can both be in the lineup at the same time. Don't you think that the $27.5 million could have been better spent on a pitcher, maybe Jarrod Washburn or Kevin Millwood?

So Tejada certainly has made his point and is accurate. Now of course the Orioles do not need to accept his request and trade him, but what could they get for him. I mean, Tejada is one of the Top 5 hitters in baseball every year. He is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who never misses a game. Literally! He has played in all 162 games each year since the 2000 season when he played in a mere 160 games. he played in 159 games in 1999.

OK, so we have determined so far that he is absolutely incredible and a player that any team would love to have! We have shown that he plays every day, but also that he is going to be very expensive over the next four years. So the question becomes "How can we get him? What players would we have to send the Orioles to make this happen?" The Twins need to find a way to keep him out of a Red Sox uniform!

Let's go over the possibilities:

1. Torii Hunter - for the Twins to make this deal, Hunter would likely have to be included. Tejada's 2006 salary could be covered by exchanging it for Hunter's. The Twins can more than afford to lose their... ahem... leader because in Tejada, they have a guy who is actually a leader. Also, the Twins could easily replace Hunter in centerfield with Lew Ford. Ford is cheaper and just as productive as Hunter. He is as near to Hunter defensively as anyone.

2. Brad Radke - Another way to financially make this deal happen would be to send the O's Radke. I don't think that the O's would go for this because 2006 will likely be Radke's final year.

So, along with Hunter, the Orioles would want something more to make it worthwhile. But who?

1. Francisco Liriano - Of course they will ask.

2. Scott Baker - When the Twins initially say no to the Liriano request, Baker will be the next one they ask for.

3. Kyle Lohse - the O's have expressed an interest in the arbitration-eligible pitcher, and the Twins should not even hesitate.

4. JC Romero - Twins need to get rid of him, O's need to replace Steve Kline in their bullpen.

5. Jason Bartlett - The Orioles would likely need a replacement for Tejada, and since Tejada plays every day, Bartlett would be lost in the mix. Everyone knows that I think Bartlett will be very good, but we are talking about Miguel Tejada here!

6. Nick Punto - A throw-in utility infielder. The Twins have plenty of these types of players and with Tejada and Castillo, they shouldn't need two utility infielders anyway.

7. Boof Bonser, JD Durbin, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Adam Harben, Justin Jones, Errol Simonitsch, Jay Rainville, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop - The Twins could throw in one of their many pitching prospects to make the deal happen.

What is my initial offer to the Orioles for the 29 year old Miguel Tejada? How about Torii Hunter, Kyle Lohse, JC Romero, Jason Bartlett and one of the other pitchers (from #7)? I know. I think it is actually too much to give up for any player. However, to make it happen, the Twins need to be excessive. However, excessive without losing any meaningful players!

Let's just say that trade happened. The Twins lineup could look like this:

Shannon Stewart LF

Luis Castillo 2B

Joe Mauer C

Miguel Tejada SS

Mike Piazza DH

Nomar Garciaparra 3B

Justin Morneau 1B

Jason Kubel/Michael Cuddyer RF

Lew Ford CF

Think about it. By acquiring Tejada in this deal, the Twins would pick up $10 million in 2006, but with that package, they would likely save $10 million from Hunter, $4-5 million from Lohse and $2.2 million in Romero. In other words, the Twins would save about $6-7 million. If they are already planning on getting Piazza, now they can feel better about whatever his price is. Actually, they may have enough to sign Nomar Garciaparra to play 3B. Of course, the next question is how we afford to pay players in 2007? Well, Brad Radke's salary will come off the books. So will Shannon Stewart's. So, there is another $16 million saved making Tejada's $2 million increase seem like nothing.

In other words, it is something that could actually happen. It could even be done in a fiscally responsible manner. Many times, I am accused of not thinking outside the proverbial box. Well, this is something that is out there. It is a move that would make the Twins stronger. It would put the team in a position to compete with the White Sox and Indians in the AL Central and make them every bit as good as the Yankees and Red Sox and Angels. That could be a very strong lineup and in my proposal, the Twins would not lose any significant pitching. The staff would still include Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. The bullpen would still include Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain.

I know it is unlikely that the Twins will actually make a move on this. My proposal just seems to make way too much sense. In other words, maybe it would not be enough to acquire Tejada. If nothing else, I would hope that Terry Ryan would at least make a phone call to the Orioles General Manager and see. The Twins have this incredible set of prospects and they have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. This may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the Twins to acquire one of the best in baseball.

We also have to ask if this is a deal which would show Tejada that the Twins are doing the right things, moving in the right direction. I have to believe that it would. Look at that lineup. Look at that pitching staff. With Stewart, Castillo and Mauer hitting in front of him, Tejada will have a shot to give the Twins a player who can drive in 130 runs. Hitting behind Tejada and Piazza, Morneau should get plenty of pitches to hit. The bottom of this lineup is remarkable. Don't forget that, at times, Ford hit third for the Twins, and now he would be the team's 9th hitter. This is a lineup of guys that get on base. It is a lineup that will have some power. It is a team that has a chance to score a lot of runs! That has to be exciting, especially considering that the pitching staff remains essentially intact.

Please Mr. Ryan! Please! Just make that call! Try to make this happen!

Oh, and to answer my question about trading Francisco Liriano. I would trade Liriano for Tejada, but only if the Orioles took Torii Hunter off of our roster! or sent a lot of month to help pay Tejada's salary. However, I believe that the Twins have enough other chips to make the deal happen without losing Liriano or Scott Baker.

What do you think? Is it a dream, or could it be at all realistic? Am I offering enough? Send me an e-mail, or feel free to discuss in the Comments.

WINTER MEETING THOUGHTS

On Monday, in my Winter Meetings Preview, I said that there would be a lot of trades this week. Well, there were quite a few, at least more than normal! Juan Pierre was the next Marlin traded. Manny Ramirez is still a Red Sox player, for now, although rumors of him going to the Mets in a three-team deal persist. Bobby Abreu is still with the Phillies but intriguing rumors about him continue. The only name I mentioned that I was right about was Lyle Overbay being traded by the Brewers.

 

In my Twins at the Winter Meetings section, I pointed out five things that the Twins needed to do during the Winter Meetings. Briefly, let's touch on them and see how successful the week was in those terms:

• Acquire third baseman since the team is so reluctant to give Michael Cuddyer another shot. (UPDATE - Still no third baseman)

• Acquire a Designated hitter, preferably a right-handed bat. (UPDATE - although there was plenty of talk about Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas, nothing happened yet)

• Trade JC Romero. (UPDATE - He's still a Twin)

• Trade Kyle Lohse. UPDATE - He's still a Twin)

• Not trade - Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker. (UPDATE - so far, so good. They are all still Twins)

So, one out out five. That isn't good. We are left to assume that Terry Ryan set the groundwork to get some of these issues taken care of in the next couple of weeks. On the 3B front, rumors of Shea Hillenbrand coming to the Twins are frequent since the Blue Jays acquired Lyle Overbay. I would say no just because he is a bad defensive 3B and doesn't get on base and would cost a lot of money. Yes, even I prefer Hank Blalock to Hillenbrand. The Red Sox now have three 3B, so there could be something there. I still believe that Mike Piazza will be a Twin in the coming days, maybe over the weekend and I hope that we do not end up with Frank Thomas. I hope JC Romero and Kyle Lohse are traded. Terry Ryan has been quoted as saying that the team wants to keep Lohse. I really hope that this is just posturing to help trade him.

 

So, I guess in some ways you could say that the Winter Meetings were a waste because the Twins did nothing. However, one other point that I stressed was that the team needed to make smart moves. They should not just make deals to make deals. They should not overpay just to acquire mediocrity. So, on a positive note, the team did not make a bad move this week, something I was actually afraid they might do in response to the White Sox moves.

 

On another positive note, the Twins participated in the Rule V draft yesterday. In the Major League portion, the Twins selected OF Jason Pridie from the Devil Rays organization. The 22 year old was a second round pick in 2002. He has shown some power in his brief career, but he is primarily known for speed and defense. He is the brother of Twins minor leaguer Jon Pridie who pitched for New Britain from 2002 through 2004. He did not play in 2005. Back to Jason, he was injured much of the 2005 season. Also, the Devil Rays are just loaded with OF prospects, so he is very available. However, as the Twins roster is currently configured, I can not imagine Pridie making the 25 man roster and sticking with the Twins all season. Shannon Stewart and Torii Hunter are in LF and CF, and the Twins have Lew Ford, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Jason Tyner vying for three other roster spots. My hope is that the Twins will work out a deal to keep Pridie and have him spend the year in New Britain. Who knows, maybe he could help the Twins in a couple of years.

 

Then in the minor league portion of the draft, the Twins made three picks in the AAA draft. They were LHP Jose Lugo from the A's organization, OF Erold Andrus from the Yankees organization, and Alexander Farfan, a RHP from the Reds organization. These players each cost the team $12,000 and do not need to be returned. The Twins did not pick in the AA portion of the Rule V draft. For some very brief thoughts on each of these guys, be sure to check out my thoughts on the Dickie Thon Twins Fan Forum.

 

Finally, late Wednesday night, the Twins did offer salary arbitration to OF Jacque Jones. Now we all just have to hope that he signs with another team quickly and does not accept arbitration! Otherwise, it would completely mess up any offseason plans for the Twins. Rumor has it that Seattle wants him and offered a three year deal at about $5 million per season, but I have to believe that the Royals and Cardinals will counter.

 

Any thoughts on the Twins at this point? Are you disappointed in what didn't happen this week? E-mail me, or post some comments here.

 

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MORE WINTER MEETINGS HAPPENINGS

• The Braves needed a SS to replace Rafael Furcal. Yesterday, they traded top prospect Andy Marte to the Red Sox in exchange for Edgar Renterria. My initial thought is that the deal was horrible for the Braves. That is too much to give up for an overpaid shortstop. Yes, he is a bigger name, but he is not great. That said, you know what you are getting from him (or at least you hope that he doesn't stay at his 2005 level). However, Andy Marte is a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball. He could be compared to Miguel Cabrera. He is just 21. Also, the Braves do still have Wilson Betemit who finally put together a strong season last year. I still don't like the deal for the Braves, but when I read that they also are getting $11 million from the Red Sox, I realized that the Braves will basically be paying Renteria $6 million a year, which is fair. I just still would not have done it for Marte.

• Maybe part of that is because I was/am still holding out hope that the Twins could deal for Marte to play 3B. So, now the Red Sox have three third basemen? Listening to the Red Sox representative (remember, they still don't have a GM), he said it is possible that the Red Sox would have a lineup that would include Mike Lowell at 3B, Kevin Youklis at 1B and Andy Marte in LF.

• Of course that reminds us all that the Red Sox still plan to trade Manny Ramirez. Toward the end of the day, rumors spread that Manny could still go to the Mets, with Cliff Floyd going to the Cubs in a three-team deal. I have to assume that the likes of Lastings Milledge will be involved.

• Last night, it was believed that Bill Mueller had signed with the Dodgers. This is not surprising as it has been rumored for a few days. The Twins also made it clear earlier in the week that they were no longer a player. It is a good move for the Dodgers. Mueller is a solid, but unspectacular player, who will be reunited with his former manager Grady Little.

• Very late on Wednesday night, the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay to the Blue Jays for Gabe Gross, David Bush and a minor leaguer Zach Jackson. Bush hopes to someday become a league-average pitcher, but Gross could be very good in Miller Park, and Jackson is all about potential. I think that the Brewers could have gotten a little bit more, but they did pretty well. The Brewers have now decided (officially, but to no one's surprise) that they will give Prince Fielder the 1B job out of spring training. It is the right move. Fielder is ready and the Brewers were able to get quality for Overbay. From the Blue Jays perspective, it makes sense. Overbay will be a good, left-handed bat for them. However, assuming he plays 1B or DHes, just two of Eric Hinske, Shea Hillenbrand and Corey Koskie will only be able to play DH and 3B. I have to believe that Hillenbrand will likely be traded, although the other two could be too.

• The Royals signed Elmer Dessens. One AL Central team has to stay bad, right?

• A couple of former Twins signed with the Tigers yesterday. Reliever Todd Jones signed a two year, $11 million deal. Not bad for a middle reliever who happened into the Marlins closers job because Guillermo Mota couldn't handle it. The team also signed Kenny Rogers to a two year, $16 million deal. Way too much for a guy that age. (Which am I talking about... both)

• Are there any other thoughts on any of the Winter Meeting deals or non-deals that I have left out? What stood out to you? Feel free to e-mail me, or post some comments on this.     

VIKINGS THOUGHTS/PREDICTIONS

I know that I said that the Lions game last week was the type of game that the Vikings find a way to lose. That wasn't so true. The Vikings this year have done a great job of beating bad teams. Let's be a little honest with ourselves, the team has won five straight games. Against who? The Packers twice, the Lions twice and the Cleveland Browns. That isn't say much. Now, the Rams are not a real strong team, and right now, they are being led by their #3 QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick because of injuries to Marc Bulger and Jamie Martin. Stephen Jackson is the man for them on the ground. Marshall Faulk hardly plays anymore. They still have great receivers. Torry Holt is as good as any receiver. Isaac Bruce is back from injury, and Kevin Curtis is a great #3 receiver. This is a decent offense. But it is not a good defensive team. It is a game that the Vikings still should win, and really, to make the playoffs, they will need to win it. The key is the Vikings defense. Can it stop the Rams offense?

Prediction - Vikings 27, Rams 28

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

Our panel has been really good the last two weeks overall. I'm not sure how it will go this week, but hopefully we can make a few correct picks. This week, we seem to have a lot of consensus on the picks. Let's see which teams our panelists picked.

(For more on our panel or our picks, check out the NFL "Expert" Picks page here.)

And on that note, I will call it a day and a week. I'll be back on Monday hoping there is more Twins news to report.. If you have any questions or comments or ideas for future postings, please e-mail me.

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