Monday,
December 6, 2010
Winter Meetings Primer
The Winter Meetings have barely even started
yet, and already, there is a ton of news. As I’ve mentioned, each night this
week at 10:00 central time, I will be hosting a Winter Meetings
Podcast in which I will discuss the day’s transactions, rumors and
more, and try to put some Twins context to it all. Sunday
night was the first Winter Meetings Podcast, and I was joined by Jim
Crikket of Knuckleballsblog.com, and John Bonnes, aka The Twins Geek. I’m sure
there are times when my thoughts are controversial to Twins fans. I mean, not
as controversial as the Gophers’ hiring of that Kill guy as their new football
coach, but still, kind of controversial to some. We really discussed all
aspects of the Winter Meetings and what to expect or hope for from the Twins.
Winter
Meetings Podcast Schedule (all start
at 10:00 central time):
Monday – Nick Nelson, Tuesday – Aaron
Gleeman, Wednesday – Phil Mackey (live from
Orlando), Thursday – Travis Aune
to talk about the Rule 5 draft and put a bow on the Winter Meetings.
Here
are some of my thoughts on the news from Sunday:
·
I got beat up
(not literally) this past summer when I suggested that Jayson Werth would make $100 million this
offseason. However, I was shocked when he got seven years and $126 million from
the Nationals. He is a very good player, but come on,
he’s not one of those types of players.
·
Based on the Werth deal, I have no problem with Carl Crawford asking for eight years and $180 million. What will Cliff Lee get once the Yankees and
Rangers start serious talks with him?
·
What alarms me
about the Werth signing most is that if Carl Pavano
signs with the Nationals this week, the Twins would get the Nationals’ 3rd
round pick. Their first-round pick is protected. Their second round pick likely
goes to Philadelphia for Werth, so the Twins would
get their third round pick, plus a supplemental pick between the 1st
and 2nd rounds.
·
Shawn Marcum
was traded from Toronto to the Brewers last night. The Blue Jays received the
Brewers top prospect, Brett Lawrie, who is a Canadian. It seems to be a good match.
Of course, the Blue Jays are a team rumored to be interested in acquiring Zach Greinke,
so it’s possible this is a precursor to an even bigger deal. I would love to
have seen Marcum in a Twins uniform the next several years. Lawrie
is a good prospect, on par with Aaron
Hicks.
·
The White Sox
signed Adam Dunn for four years and
$56 million. They brought back AJ Pierzynski for two years and $8 million. They will
likely bring back Paul Konerko in the next couple of days for around $13
million a season. The Tigers added Victor
Martinez for four years and $50 millions to be their backup catcher and DH.
I know a lot of Twins fans are upset about the AL Centrals doing this, but
these players are certainly not players the Twins would have targeted anyway,
so I don’t quite get the reaction. The Tigers had $60 million come off the
books, so it should be no surprised that they would spend.
·
For the Twins, I
would like to see them add a starting pitcher of high caliber. Marcum would
have fit into that category. Greinke does as well. I
don’t think that I would overpay for Greinke the way
that the Royals seemingly would expect the Twins to, but he would be a good
addition. Of course, bringing back Carl Pavano for
too many years and too many dollars is also a possibility. Depending upon that
decision, the team may need to make a move involving one of their current starters.
·
The big area that
the Twins need to address is in the bullpen. With potential losses of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch
and others, they will need to add a couple of players. I just don’t think that Gardy would have enough confidence in some of the younger,
less experienced pitchers. I’ve mentioned Jose
Veras and George Sherrill and Hideki Okajima,
but there are others.
·
I will be curious
what happens with Jim Thome. I would love to see him back in a Twins uniform,
but I also agree that it is hard to have such a one-dimensional option. He is
said to be looking for two years, and he should be after last year. If the
dollars make sense, great. Otherwise, I think that Matt Diaz may make a lot more sense since the Twins need a
right-handed bench/DH bat more than a left-handed DH bat.
·
One thing I would
not like is to see JJ Hardy traded
for only a relief pitcher. I get it. Apparently the Twins don’t want to keep
Hardy around. Without saying it, it is pretty clear. I think it would be a
mistake to trade him for just a reliever, but I am not against trading him. I
think he has much more value than that.
·
That said, I have
never been a fan of signing big name
free agents to big dollar, long-term contracts because they are generally bad
contracts within a couple of years as the players get into their mid-30s. Free
agent relievers are going to make a lot of money as well. That’s why I
understand that obtaining reliever help via trade probably makes the most
sense. Otherwise, I might prefer the Twins wait another month for their
reliever help.
·
I am finding
Twins’ fans angst somewhat comical. Yes, the White Sox signed Dunn, likely will
resign Konerko and already brought back Pierzynski. The Tigers added Victor Martinez. All of those are big names, and yet they are names
that the Twins should not have been involved in. The Twins needs are in relief
pitching, and those types of signings will never garner huge excitement. I do
expect Twins fans to be disappointed during the Winter Meetings, but I’m not
certain they should be. Jayson Werth signing a ridiculous contract doesn’t mean that
the Twins are doing nothing. I’d love to have Carl Crawford roaming left field, but not at $22.5 million. (and yes, I get that we have a catcher making the same). Cliff Lee? He’s going to make way too
much for way too long too.
·
That isn’t
written to give the Twins a free pass at all. In fact, I am a little concerned.
With the dates for the various offseason decisions to be made all moving up, it
appears that more will happen at the Winter Meetings than normal. I think the
Twins are all-in on Carl Pavano, and although I don’t think that’s a good idea,
I do understand. But if they don’t get him, what is the backup plan, and who
will be left at that time? I want the Twins to get a solid reliever, like the
names I mentioned above. But after that, they’re all just names and I would
have to wonder if they’re better than the Twins internal options. I don’t
understand the urge to trade someone like JJ
Hardy who, although he is very slow running the bases, has great range
defensively and will only make $6 million next year. I wouldn’t so much be
nervous about a Nishioka/Casilla
middle infield, I’d be more worried about the next step if one got hurt or didn’t
play well.
·
All that said, I am going to sit back and enjoy the Winter Meetings. It
is fun to follow all the rumors, most of which are just that. It’s fun to
discuss and dream and hope.
With that, I’ll call it a day. Feel free to
discuss throughout the day in the Comments
as more Twins rumors and thoughts come to light. Again, be nice and respectful.