**Eric Milton traded to Phillies for IF Nick Punto, RP Carlos Silva and PTBNL

Wednesday December 3, 2003

 

TWINS LOSE HAWKINS

MATT MORRIS – NEW HERO?
NFL “EXPERT” PICKS CORRECTION
 

HALL OF FAMERS –

RETURNING PLAYERS

Yesterday, I discussed the players who will be on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. In it, I noted that my opinion is that both Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley would receive my vote. I think Joe Carter will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot, but I think the rest of the former players will receive less than 5% of the vote.

A player must have received at least 5% (and obviously less than the 75% needed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame) to remain on the ballot. The player must then be selected a Hall of Famer within 15 years or his name is removed from the Hall of Fame ballot. He then would not be eligible for induction until he is eligible to be selected by the Veteran’s Committee.

Today, I will briefly discuss those players returning to the ballot, starting with someone Twins fans will recognize and probably argue more vehemently about his Hall of Fame status. Although I do believe that at least one of the below players should be a Hall of Famer, one question does have to be asked in this discussion. What have these players done in the past year that makes them a Hall of Famer? Did they suddenly add 50 home runs or lose 0.50 on their career ERA?

Bert Blyleven - Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, California Angels

How is it possible that the 52 year old Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Famer? Two World Series Championships (’79 with the Pirates, ’87 with the Twins). 9^th on the All-Time Shutout list with 60. When Bert Blyleven retired, he was 3^rd on the All-Time strikeout list with 3,701 strikeouts. He is still 5^th place on that list:

1.)      Nolan Ryan  5,714

2.)      Steve Carlton  4,136

3.)      Roger Clemens  4,099

4.)      Randy Johnson  3,871

5.)      Bert Blyleven  3,701

6.)      Tom Seaver  3,640

7.)      Don Sutton  3,574

8.)      Gaylord Perry  3,534

9.)      Walter Johnson  3,509

10.)   Phil Niekro  3,342

11.)   Fergie Jenkins  3,192

12.)   Bob Gibson  3,117

I think we all know that Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson will be first-ballot Hall of Famers. So, no pitcher with more than 3,000 career strikeouts is NOT in the Hall of Fame… except one, Bert Blyleven. Why does that make sense? Why don’t voters vote for him? If he had not played those couple of years for bad Cleveland teams and somehow won 12 more ball games, there would be absolutely no question that Bert Blyleven would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Let’s take a quick look at the 10 players that Baseball Reference says are most similar to Bert Blyleven:

1.)      Don Sutton

2.)      Gaylord Perry

3.)      Fergie Jenkins

4.)      Tommy John

5.)      Robin Roberts

6.)      Tom Seaver

7.)      Jim Kaat

8.)      Early Wynn

9.)      Phil Niekro

10.)   Steve Carlton

From that list, all but Tommy John and Jim Kaat have already been inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame. So as I’ve asked before, someone please explain to me how Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Fame pitcher. If you know, please, e-mail me.

Dave Concepcion - Cincinnati Reds

A member of four World Series teams with the vaunted Big Red Machine. The team won championships in 1975 and 1976. Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez have already been inducted from those teams, so I’m sure that’s why he’s still on the ballot. A very solid shortstop for a lot of years, Concepcion was a nine-time All-Star. He was an above average shortstop earning five Gold Glove Awards. A solid performer for some very good teams, but the Hall is for the best of the best!

Andre Dawson - Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Florida Marlins

Hawk had a pretty solid career and you have to wonder what it could have been with two healthy knees! Dawson won eight Gold Glove Awards and was a All-Star eight times as well. He won the 1987 NL MVP despite his Chicago Cubs finishing in last place. Two other times he finished second in MVP voting. His 438 homers rank 29^th all-time and his 1,591 RBI ranks him 28^th.  Was Andre Dawson a great player? Yes! Was he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so, but he’s close enough that he will remain on the ballot for the duration.

Steve Garvey - Los Angeles, San Diego Padres

Steve Garvey actually put up some very good career numbers. He was a 10 time All-Star. He was 0-3 in his World Series appearances with the Dodgers in the 1970s, but then the team won the 1981 World Series. He then went to San Diego where his team lost in the 1984 World Series. As solid a hitter as Garvey was, he was probably a better defensive player. He won just four Gold Glove Awards, but he held a career .996 Fielding percentage. His 9.04 Range Factor was well above the 7.96 league average. Another good thing about Garvey, he played almost every day and still holds the National League record for consecutive games played!

Rich Gossage – Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners

Goose Gossage was intimidating, mustache and all!  Along with Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter, Gossage needs to be judged different than most other pitchers. They were closers before the current closer role was defined. They would pitch 2-3 innings frequently throughout the year. They would come into tie games or when the team was ahead or behind. And, of the three, I think that Gossage was the best. Fingers is already in the Hall, and Sutter is approaching receiving the necessary votes. He was a 9 time All-Star. His 310 saves are 13^th on the all-time list, and Fingers is the only pitcher from his era above him. He even won a World Series ring with the Yankees in 1978. He appeared in the 1981 World Series with the Yankees and the ’84 Series with the Padres, but his teams lost in both cases.

Keith Hernandez - St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Cleveland Indians

Keith Hernandez was a very good hitter at 1B as his .296 average and 129 OPS+ can attest, but he is most known for his defense. He also had a .994 career fielding percentage. His 9.73 Range Factor for his career is well above the league average of 8.51. he won 11 Gold Glove Awards! Hernandez was a five-time All-Star. In 1979, he hit .344/.417/513 with 11 HR and 105 RBI to win the NL MVP Award (actually, he and Pirates Hall of Fame outfielder Willie Stargell tied for the award). Hernandez was a part of two World Championship teams; the 1982 Cardinals and the 1986 Mets.

Tommy John – Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles, New York Yankees, California Angels, Oakland A’s

Tommy John is another interesting case for the Hall of Fame. He has some pretty impressive numbers, but a lot of them were accumulated because he pitched for so long. Of course, he is best known as having an arm surgery named after him. But he came back from that and continued to pitch well for almost 15 more seasons. John was named to four All-Star teams. Two times he finished second in the Cy Young Award vote. His teams lost the three World Series that John was part of (’77 and ‘78 Dodgers, ’81 Yankees). Again, just 12 more wins would probably ensure him a spot in Cooperstown, but his 288 wins still ranks 24^th all-time.

Don Mattingly - New York Yankees

There was quite a bit of discussion on this site after Don Mattingly was named the Yankees new hitting coach a month ago. A six time All-Star. Nine Gold Glove Awards. Donnie Baseball was the 1985 AL MVP, just beating out George Brett. In 1986, he finished second behind Roger Clemens in the MVP voting.  Injuries definitely hurt his career the last five or six years, but he refused to miss much playing time because of it. He was the heart and soul of some bad ‘80s Yankees teams.

Jack Morris - Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians

Twins fans want Jack Morris in the Hall of Fame simply for Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. After Josh Beckett’s Game 6 win against the Yankees in dominant fashion, many said that it was the greatest pitching performance in a World Series. Those people are either dumb, or they didn’t see Jack Morris’ 10-inning shutout against the Braves. However, a Hall of Fame plaque is earned for a career, not individual games, no matter how big. Jack Morris was the winningest pitcher in the big leagues for the decade of the ‘80s! (Note – he was also the losingest pitcher of that decade) A bulldog, Morris wanted to pitch a lot of innings. He pitched in five All-Star games. His 3.90 ERA is quite high for the Hall of Fame, and that 105 ERA+ is just slightly above average. But Morris shined on the big stage. He played on 3 World Series championship teams. First with the Tigers in 1984, then the aforementioned Twins 1991 team and again the following year with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Dale Murphy - Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies

Dale Murphy always gets talked of as a Hall of Famer. I can’t say I understand that, but he was a very good player for most of a decade with the Braves. He won the 1982 and 1983 NL MVP awards, hitting 36 home runs both years. He actually led the league in home runs the next two years with 36 and 37 homers, respectively. He was a seven time All-Star and a five time Gold Glove winning outfielder, very impressive considering he came up to the Braves a catcher. He had his great years and then his career plummeted and in a hurry. But the career numbers are very good. Maybe if he, instead of Claudell Washington was my favorite player at that time, I would be more biased toward the Murphy vote.

Dave Parker – Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland A’s, Milwaukee Brewers, California Angels, Toronto Blue Jays

Like Keith Hernandez, drug problems may have cost Parker some time, or at least a break from the media. But Dave Parker was a great all-around hitter. He played on seven All-Star teams. He won three Gold Gloves. He won the 1978 NL MVP Award and finished in the Top 5 in voting five times! He appeared in three World Series. His Sister Sledge “We Are Family” Pirates won the 1979 Series. Then he played on the 1988 and 1989 Oakland A’s teams that lost and then won the World Series.

Jim Rice - Boston Red Sox

Jim Rice always gets plenty of support from the New England media when he isn’t selected for the Hall of Fame. I agree that he was a great player as well. Good power, good average. Rice played on eight All-Star teams. He won the 1978 AL MVP and finished in the Top 5 in voting six times. He was part of the ’86 Red Sox team that lost the heartbreaking World Series to the Mets. Jim Rice has a very strong OPS+. I’m not convinced that he’s more a Hall of Famer than any of the others on this list, but I am sure he will be the one getting the most coverage by the media!

Ryne Sandberg – Philadelphia Phillies

Another interesting case is Ryne Sandberg. Maybe he’s an example of why sometimes being eligible for the Hall of Fame more than one year is good. At first look, Sandberg’s numbers are great, but not necessarily Hall of Fame caliber on their own. He played in ten straight All Star games (1984-1993) and won nine Gold Gloves at 2B. He was the 1984 NL MVP and three times he finished in the Top 5 in voting.  All very good, but Hall of Fame? Now compare his numbers against other 2B, and especially other 2B during his era. That’s where the argument arises that he could be a Hall of Fame 2B!

Lee Smith – Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, California Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos

#1 on the All-Time Saves list with 478. Here are the Top 5 in that category:

1.)      Lee Smith  478

2.)      John Franco  424

3.)      Dennis Eckersley  390

4.)      Jeff Reardon  367

5.)      Trevor Hoffman  352

Now, I’m right there with many others that say that the Save is one of the most over-rated statistics in baseball history. But, like the DH, the closer has become a big part of the game of baseball. That was Lee Smith’s role for his career and he did it well. Look at his strikeouts/IP at almost 1.0. Look at his ERA+. Lee Smith was one of the first to redefine the closer role as it is today. He led the league in Saves four times and finished in the top 5 of his league eleven time. Smith was also a seven time All-Star.

Bruce Sutter – Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves

Bruce Sutter’s career wasn’t as long as Gossage’s, but it was equally as dominant. 300 saves with a 2.83 career ERA. That 136 ERA+ shows just how strong he was.  A six-time All-Star, Sutter was named the 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner. He finished top 5 for the award four other times. He was also a member of the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals World Series championship team.

Alan Trammell - Detroit Tigers

I have to admit, I totally don’t understand why there are so many people that think that Alan Trammell is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Just look at his numbers. They’re good, but they’re far from earth-shattering. And, I’m a huge supporter of the fact that numbers and stats don’t tell the whole story. This must be a case of that! Trammell was a six time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner for the Tigers. He was also the MVP of the 1984 World Series. One more thing that really sticks in my mind as a reason he should not be a Hall of Famer is his number of games played each season. Starting with his first full season in 1978, here are the number of games Trammell played in through 1996 (139, 142, 146, 105, 157, 142, 139, 149, 151, 151, 128, 121, 146, 101, 29, 112, 76, 74, 66). If you’re a Hall of Famer, you should be averaging less time off each season. His double-play partner, Lou Whitaker, deserves just as much consideration in my mind.

Fernando Valenzuela - Los Angeles Dodgers, California Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

Fernando Mania struck southern California in the Summer of 1981. Fernando Valenzueala won both the NL Rookie of the Year and the NL Cy Young Award (and finished 5^th in the MVP vote). He went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA. He struck out 180 hitters in 192 innings. He also pitched eight shutouts. From 1981-1986, Fernando was an All-Star each year. He also threw no less than 251 innings in a season. That, combined with his screwball pitch, and you can completely understand where his arm problems came from. He struggled for a few years after that before retiring. He did make a brief comeback, but even that was short lived.
 

SUMMARY  

Again I can’t stress enough that I think all of these players were incredible! They not only stayed in the league for more than a decade, but their careers are strong enough to remain on this ballot and some of them may still end up in the Hall of Fame.  So, here are the results if I were to give a percentage that I think they will receive:

1.)      Bruce Sutter – 68%

2.)      Andre Dawson – 61%

3.)      Jim Rice – 60%

4.)      Ryne Sandberg – 48%

5.)      Lee Smith – 30%

6.)      Goose Gossage – 22%

7.)      Bert Blyleven – 21%

8.)      Dale Murphy – 20%

9.)      Steve Garvey – 19%

10.)   Don Mattingly – 18%

11.)   Jack Morris – 12%

12.)   Tommy John – 11%

13.)   Keith Hernandez – 9%

14.)   Dave Parker – 9%

15.)   Alan Trammell – 8%

16.)   Fernando Valenzuela – 5%

17.)   Dave Concepcion – 4%

In other words, I think it will be another year wait for a few of these guys. I think three or four of these players will come very close to the 75% that they need, but I don’t think any of them will get elected.
 

SETH’S HALL OF FAME VOTE

I wish I had a vote for this honor. I would really take it seriously. I would do my homework, and obviously far more than just what you see above. Again, as a voter, I would have the ability to vote for up to ten players for the Hall of Fame. Here are my choices (including first-year selections from yesterday):

1.) Paul Molitor – IF/DH

2.) Dennis Eckersley – Pitcher

3.) Bert Blyleven – Pitcher

4.) Goose Gossage – Relief Pitcher

5.) Lee Smith – Relief Pitcher

That’s it! That would be my vote, just five of them. I wouldn’t want to use all ten votes. I think if I have any second guesses about a player being a Hall of Famer, then he’s not a Hall of Famer. The Hall of Fame should be for the best of the best. It should be difficult to get into.

What do you think about my “vote”? Am I on track in my analysis and thoughts? Who am I leaving out that you would want to be included? I’d love to hear your arguments on this topic. I know many will write about their votes and tell you who they think should be selected for the Hall of Fame, so I wanted to get my thoughts out first. Please, send me an e-mail and let’s get a discussion going on this Hall of Fame topic. Voters (Baseball Writers of America) have until the end of the month to cast their votes, and the results will be announced on January 6^th. At that time, we will know who the 2004 Hall of Fame Inductees will be.

 

TWINS LOSE HAWKINS

Little is known about the specifics, but last night, the Chicago Cubs signed reliever LaTroy Hawkins to either a two or three year deal averaging $3.67 million per season.

I'm sorry to see Hawkins leave.  He became such a dominant reliever the past two seasons and it would have been nice to keep him around, but such is the economics of baseball.  And, Hawkins is going to a very good situation in Chicago where he can compete for their closers role.

The Twins receiving reliever Joe Nathan in the AJ Pierzynski trade last month certainly proves to be more important as he will now likely step into Hawkins set up role.  He is more than capable.

MATT MORRIS – NEW HERO?

Clubhouse cancer. Bad guy reps. Team chemistry. These are terms that get thrown around by baseball’s media. But if you want to see what a true leader of a team does, check out this link. St. Louis Cardinals star pitcher Matt Morris wrote a great letter to the editor in a St. Louis newspaper. In it, he defends former teammate Tino Martinez. Some writers in that paper had vilified Martinez saying that he was a big reason that the team underperformed and didn’t make the playoffs. Morris backed Martinez completely, saying he was a great teammate, a great leader and provided knowledge to his teammates during his two-year stint in St. Louis. Morris took a share of the blame for the team’s disappointment saying that he and others did not live up to their own expectations. Now, of course, Morris was hurt part of the year as was most of the Cardinals pitching staff.

I’m just impressed by Morris being willing to not only have his opinion but to be willing to put it down in words and send it to the newspaper. I think that’s great leadership!

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS CORRECTION

Someone wrote to me asking about the updated standings in our Football Picks because something didn’t look quite right. I went back through the results, week-by-week and figured out what the records should be. Turns out that I forgot to add a week’s results to the overall records. So I apologize, but here are the updated (And CORRECT) standings for the Football Picks. Aaron Gleeman maintains his one-game lead over Ben Jacobs. The two have a comfortable lead (for now) above the rest of the league!

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