Week of November 27, 2006

Friday, December 1, 2006

Friday Quick Notes

OK, I've been gone all week. I did get this week's football picks posted last night, before the NFL game started. I have to admit, I am kind of worn out, so today, I am just going to post a few thoughts. Of course, most of them will be baseball, but there will be a couple of other interesting topics, so I hope you enjoy. As always, please feel free to comment on anything, or send me an e-mail.

IOK, I am tired. I am going to have to call it a day and a week. Next week, I should have a full week of articles! As always, if you have any comments or opinions, please e-mail me or leave comments. Thank you!

Thursday, November 30, 2006

NFL "Expert" Picks

Well, I'm a little behind, but here are our Week 13 picks. If you have any questions or comments, e-mail me or leave comments below. If you would like any information on the panelists, or the updated standings, check out the Official SethSpeaks 2006 NFL "Experts" Picks page.

SUMMARY

Here is how the collective "We" picked this week:

Thursday -
Baltimore @ Cincinnati - Ravens 9-7
Sunday -
Arizona @ St. Louis - Rams 16-0
Atlanta @ Washington - Redskins 9-7
Detroit @ New England - Patriots 16-0
Indianapolis @ Tennessee - Colts 16-0
Kansas City @ Cleveland - Chiefs 16-0
Minnesota @ Chicago - Bears 16-0
NY Jets @ Green Bay - Jets 9-7
San Diego @ Buffalo - Chargers 14-2
San Francisco @ New Orleans - Saints 16-0
Houston @ Oakland - Raiders 12-4
Jacksonville @ Miami - Dolphins 9-7
Dallas @ NY Giants - Cowboys 13-3
Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh - Steelers 13-3
Seattle @ Denver - Broncos 12-4
Monday -
Carolina @ Philadelphia - Panthers 15-1

 

Let me know what you think.  Send me an e-mail, or let's talk about it in the Comments here. 

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Hey ya'll, I just got back in to town a few minutes ago. I will have something good tomorrow, at least something substantial. I will also be posting the NFL "Expert" Picks tonight. I do have most of the FB Picks e-mailed to me, I see, but I need to compile them and that just takes a few minutes. I apologize for the delay.

Unfortunately, I do have to go in to the office for the afternoon, but when I get home, I will have a busy night trying to get caught up. In the mean time, here is the article that I wrote for scout.com last weekend on Torii Hunter's option. It was a premium article meaning that if you don't have the subscription to the Twin Cities Dugout, you weren't able to read it. Enjoy and have a great day! Feel free to e-mail me or leave comments.

Torii’s Option

Throughout much of the 2006 season, there was much debate about the value of Torii Hunter. The big questions was, “Should the Twins pick up the $12 million option for 2007 on Torii Hunter’s contract?” To answer the question, a few other questions must be asked.

 1.        Is Torii Hunter really worth $12 million?

2.        Is Torii Hunter really worth $12 million on the market?

3.        Is Torii Hunter really worth 17-18% of the Twins 2007 payroll?

Let’s answer these questions in order.

 1.       Is Torii Hunter really worth $12 million?

Of course, the answer to that question is strictly relative. To those of us who live paycheck to paycheck, the concept of someone making that much money seems a little ridiculous, doesn’t it? I mean, to get paid that much money to “play a game” and “travel for free all around the country” is just silly!

However, too many people forget that Major League Baseball is doing quite well right now. Billion dollar contracts with network television and local and satellite radio outlets dictate that if owners are going to make a lot of money, players deserve a lot of money too.

In other words, the simple question of a player’s worth is really relative. But relative to what?

 2.       Is Torii Hunter really worth $12 million on the market?

This is really the key question. Compared to what other Centerfielders are making, is Torii Hunter making $12 million really out of bounds.

In August, when Hunter was going through another average offensive season, coming off an injury and not making the defensive plays that we were accustomed to, the answer was clearly “No!”

At the end of the regular season, after a September during which he hit .314/.328/.576 with nine home runs and 27 RBI, the answer became a little more cloudy to some. Hunter was a huge cog in the Twins playoff run in the last month.

Although it was still debatable if he was really worth $12 million, General Manager Terry Ryan decided to reward Hunter by picking up the 2007 option.

Well, since the end of the postseason and the beginning of the Hot Stove League, things have changed again. In the last two weeks, several signings have changed the thinking. First, it was the Chicago Cubs signing Alfonso Soriano to a very controversial eight year, $136 contract. That is an average of $17 million until Soriano is 38 years old! Offensively, Soriano is clearly much better than Hunter. Neither has much plate discipline, but Soriano is far superior in terms of power and speed. Where Hunter has the advantage is defensively where Hunter is Gold Glove caliber and Soriano is still learning to play the OF. I don’t think that anyone really has a problem with the average salary for Soriano, but eight years is a ridiculously long time.

Next, the Los Angeles Dodgers added Juan Pierre to their roster, enticing him with a five year, $45 million contract. Now, Pierre is just 29 years old, young for a free agent, but that is a lot of money for a guy with really just two qualities. First, he plays every day, 162 games each of the past four seasons. His other skill is an ability to steal bases. He has stolen no fewer than 45 bases each of the last six seasons. Of course as a leadoff hitter and a base stealer, one of the most important abilities he should have is getting on base. Only twice in his seven big league seasons has he had an on-base percentage over .361, never over .380! In his last two seasons, he has been on base just 32.8% of the time. Defensively, Pierre is about an average fielder with a weak arm. Worth $9 million a year for five years? I don’t think so!

Finally, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim gave a five year, $50 million contract to Gary Matthews, Jr. The 32 year old has spent parts of the past eight seasons in the big leagues, with seven different teams. The last two and a half have been with the Texas Rangers, and 2006 was his first year that he was a full-time player. He came through with a strong .313/.371/.495 season with 44 doubles, six triples, 19 homers and 79 RBI. In his career, he has hit .263/.336/.419 hitter. He has shown some power and steals a few bases. He is a tremendous defensive centerfielder who should have won a 2006 Gold Glove. Basically, he is Torii Hunter without the track record, coming off of a big season in his free agent year playing half of his games in hitter-friendly Arlington. Does he have the ability to earn $10 million a year? Probably, but then why hasn’t he shown it before?

Based on these three large contract centerfielder signings in the last month, I think that it is fair to say that IN THIS MARKET, Torii Hunter is worth $12 million.

That just leaves one more question to answer.

3.       Is Torii  Hunter really worth 17-18% of the Twins 2007 payroll?

That is likely the most important question out there. Well, to know the answer to that, we must know what we are talking about on the whole. The Twins will likely have a payroll in the $65-70 million range again in 2007. Even with the bigger pool of money coming in to teams right now, I don’t anticipate that the Twins will spend a large amount more in 2007. We also need to know where the rest of the money is being spent. So far, we know the values of the 2007 contracts for Hunter, Johan Santana ($12 million), Luis Castillo ($5.75 million), Joe Nathan ($5.25 million), Dennys Reyes ($1 million) and Mike Redmond ($900,000). That is $36.9 million, or already 53-57 percent of the team’s payroll, for six players. We also know that Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all due some large raises through arbitration. If we make an assumption that each will average making $4.5 million in 2007 (and this may be a little low), that is another $13.5 million. That is approximately also what Carlos Silva’s option went for. That brings us to $54.5 million or 78-82 percent of the team’s payroll for ten players. That leaves about 20% ($10.5-15.5 million) of the payroll for the other 15 spots on the roster. Juan Rincon is set to make about $3 million in arbitration, and Nick Punto will likely make about $1.5-2 million, but the remaining spots will likely be held down by pre-arbitration players meaning they will all make approximately $400,000. That is just $5.2 million.

In other words, the Twins can afford to retain Torii Hunter at $12 million in 2007. They will even have enough wiggle room within their budget to afford one or two players in the $4-5 million price range.

The key is that the Twins do not reward Hunter with a contract extension at those dollars. First, he has fought injuries the last couple of years and playing on the Metrodome’s turf does not help him at all. Let’s remember his track record, that of slightly above average offensive centerfielder and premium defensive centerfielder. Let’s then remember that as big as the raises for the likes of Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer will be in 2007, they will be almost as big in 2008 and beyond. Coupled with more players coming arbitration-eligible, and Terry Ryan will have a lot of decisions to make each year on which players to retain and which to let go.

He will need to have an adequate centerfielder available in 2008. But for 2007, the Twins have arguably done well to pick up that monstrous $12 million 2007 option on Torii Hunter’s contract. Of course, with the market for centerfielders as it is and several teams still needing one, is it possible that Hunter could be quite marketable in trade talks right now? What do you think? 

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Hello everyone! Well, I understand that Northern Minnesota had some awful winter weather yesterday. I am supposed to be flying into Minneapolis later tonight, and I’m really, really hoping that the flight goes through and that the roads are drivable!

Anyway, things are good, but long days and incredibly busy, so I am happy that it is Wild Wednesday. So, thank you to Nick Herling for writing up this weekly Minnesota Wild recap for us. Please feel free to discuss.  Have a great day!

Wild Wednesday

Right now I’m watching the Timberwolves who have looked a little bit better than the Wild lately.  The Wild have been struggling this month going 3-8 so far with only one to play.  They’ve had injuries to key players and have looked soft at times.  Marion Gaborik has missed 16 games already this season after missing 17 due to the same injury last year.  He started to skate with the team this week, but the Wild are taking it easy with him trying to assure that the injury is healed and won’t occur again.   He is key to the Wild’s success, so hopefully when he comes back it’s for the rest of the year.  Pavol Demitra is out with a head injury and Wes Walz is out with a bad hip, both are day to day.  The Wild definitely need these guys healthy to have a successful season.

To start the year, Manny Fernandez was supposed to be the mainstay at goaltender.  He has struggled lately and has found himself on the bench with Niklas Backstrom playing well.  Here are their stats for the year.  Fernandez needs to step his game up. 

                      GP    W-L      GAA     SV %
Fernandez      19      9-7        2.73       .911
Backstrom       8      4-2-1     1.92       .941

Here’s a rundown of the games played over the past week.

Loss Wed. @ Montreal  4-2

Benoit Pouliot made his NHL debut in this game for the Wild.  He was their first round pick, fourth overall in the 2005 NHL draft.  He played sparingly, but was on the ice for Pascal Dupuis goal.  The Wild went down 2-0 in the first period, but tied the game up 2-2 after the second.  Radek Bonk had the game winner for Montreal.  That’s a classic NHL name isn’t it? 

Goals for the Wild:
Veilleux 3rd (Johnnson, Smith)
Dupuis 4th (Nummelin, Johnsson)

Win Fri. vs. Phoenix 4-0

My co-worker is the uncle to the young Keith Ballard who is a defenseman for the Coyotes.  Keith is a former Gopher and a native of Baudette, MN.  He’s still not 100% after suffering a broken hand earlier in the year, but he’s been back on the ice for the last couple games.  He definitely has a bright future ahead of him.  As far as the game, Keith’s uncle Tom said there wasn’t much to cheer about unless you were a Wild fan.  Niklas Backstrom had a shutout and 28 saves in his second straight start.

Goals for the Wild:
Bouchard 4^th (White, Foster)
Parrish 5^th (White)
Dupuis 5^th (shorthanded)(Rolston)
Radivojevic 3^rd (powerplay)(Foster, Bouchard)

Loss Sat. @ Columbus 5-3

Sergei Federov had two goals and two assists ending an eight game losing skid and handing coach Ken Hitchcock his first win as coach.  Hitchcock was hired after the firing of Gerard Gallant.  Hitchcock lost his debut on Friday against Philadelphia, but got his team on track against the Wild on Saturday.  Lemaire said the Wild made way to many mistakes to win.  This was a bad loss to a bad Columbus team. 

Goals for the Wild:
Dupuis 6^th (White, Skoula)
Bouchard 5^th (powerplay)(unassisted)
Veilleux 4^th (Parrish, Rolston)

Wild Point Leaders through 23 games

Rolston  -      21 pts.  (12G, 9A)
Bouchard -    18 pts.  (5G, 13A)
White -          17 pts.  (5G, 12A)
Demitra -       15 pts.  (5G, 10A)
Koivu -          15 pts.  (5G, 10A)

The Wild need a win tonight against a tough San Jose team.  The Wild still have a lead in the Northwest division, but are tied with Edmonton at the moment.  The division is still tight with the three other teams within five points.  Hopefully this team can have a much better month in December than they did in November. 

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Good morning Everyone! As mentioned yesterday, I am not around home most of this week. I am typing this brief update from a hotel room in Arlington, Virginia. The flight from Minneapolis to Washington DC was nice. Landing next to the river is pretty cool, but almost scary. But seeing the Washington Monument, the US Capitol, the Jefferson Memorial and other sites makes it very neat. I have been to, or through, DC three previous times, but I would love to have about a week straight just to see and spend more time at all of these places. In an attempt to encourage some Comments below, let me know of some US cities that you have visited and where you would recommend I visit for a vacation. I don't know if I can afford an actual vacation, but I'm always looking for suggestions.

I can't take a lot of time tonight to do much of an update as I have to prepare for some presentations/discussions the next couple of days. I apologize for that, and I really appreciate that you continue to come to this site.

Over the weekend, I did write an article over at the Twins Cities Dugout. It was about picking up Torii Hunter's option and how it looks now considering some of the crazy free agent contracts being handed out so far this winter! Check it out, if you have a chance. I believe that it is a subscription article.
If so, I will try to post my thoughts later this week, or early next week.

I've got to go ,but have a great day!

Seth

Monday, November 27, 2006

Good Morning!  I am out of town for the week, but will be posting some thoughts throughout the week. Please check back later.  I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving!