Monday November 24, 2003
 

Discussion Question of the Week
Twins Thoughts

Baseball Transactions

Timberwolves Thoughts

Vikings Thoughts

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS
 

GAMMONS: STATE OF THE GAME

I was reading Peter Gammon’s column from yesterday and it deals with the status of the game of baseball during this offseason. He chose four topics to discuss as situations that the league needs to prioritize. Below, I’ll give my thoughts on them as well.

1.) BUD SELIG: As Gammons writes, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, Selig doesn't own the Brewers (wink, wink).” I love Gammon’s sarcasm and willingness to tell it like it is, but it’s impossible to disagree with him on this issue. Sure, there have been management changes in Milwaukee over the past couple of years. Selig’s daughter is no longer with the team. But there is no hiding (as much as he may try) the fact that his allegiances are not only with the owners but also with the Milwaukee Brewers organization. Now, Minnesota fans all remember when Selig proposed (and Carl Pohlad went along with) the contraction of the Twins two years ago. The Twins were being smart, developing their farm system and playing within a budget. At the time, the Milwaukee Brewers were just into their new stadium, Miller Park, which was full of fans. But the Brewers clearly didn’t have an organizational plan, and within a year, their attendance plummeted. Was Milwaukee ever even allowed into the contraction talks? No.   (and, for the record, I was and am still in favor of the contraction concept) It’s no question, Major League Baseball should have a commissioner who isn’t directly related to either side, the players or the owners.

2.) THE MONTREAL(?) EXPOS: This situation needs to be resolved. It should have been resolved long ago! The other 29 owners all own this team. How is that fair? How is it fair to the Expos players? How is it fair to the other teams? Major League Baseball (re: Bud Selig) said that they would announce where the Expos would be moving to for the 2004 season during the season, then in October, and yet, we still don’t know where the Expos will end up. We now know that they will be playing in Montreal, and that 22 “home” games will be played in Puerto Rico again. So, the Expos have another year in limbo. With their talent, it would be great if they could be sold to an owner who could decide if he (or she) wants to pay those players to stay. It would be nice if the team could at least try to retain Vlad Guerrero. It would be nice if they new what who would own the team soon. These same decisions need to be made on the likes of Jose Vidro and Javier Vasquez. Portland, Las Vegas, Washington D.C. They all would be far better situations for the Expos than staying in Montreal.

3.) STEROIDS: Something like 7% of major league players tested positive for taking steroids. Because seven is more than five, it triggered a clause which automatically meant that next season there will be mandatory drug testing. Remember during the season when there was a team or two that were going to skip out on taking the test so that their results would classify as negative, helping the total percentage get over the 5% minimum. I wonder how many individuals did not take the test.  Would I be surprised if 5-7% of major league baseball players were on some sort of steroid? No. Would it bother me knowing the 5-7% of big league ballplayers were on steroids? Not really. Would it make me question any of the records that have been set in recent years? Not at all. Fact is, that any amount of steroids still won’t help a player hit a 98 mph fastball, or a sharp curve ball. Does that mean I don’t think that if MLB decides that the steroids are illegal, I wouldn’t care if players still used them? Of course not. If they become officially illegal by baseball, then I would be disappointed in anyone who still used them. I would still be impressed by anything they did with the bat.

4.) COLLUSION: The big question is: Are the owners colluding to bring down the salaries of the ball players or is the current down trend in salaries a result of the market correcting itself? I think anyone who has had any money in the stock market for more than three years fully understands the concept of market correction. The prices of stocks got far too high, so they just naturally needed to come back down. Likewise, with baseball salaries, they got too high (A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter) and the market is now working its way back down. It was starting last season, when Jim Thome got less than he probably would have the year before. But also, lesser caliber players were signing for less than they would have earlier too. That trend is starting this year already. (See Kelvim Escobar signing below) I guess I don’t even know how real collusion could even be possible in baseball. I mean, I could understand all the owners discussing their desire to lower salaries, but how can they do that while still going after the players they want? The market will bring a player’s value to what it should be. Simple as that.

A couple of weeks ago, I got the following e-mail from a reader who has contributed to this site in Discussion Questions, Tim Gibson:

Over the last couple of weeks I was involved in a discussion about the salary trends in baseball, which are largely fueled by poster child George Steinbrenner. I do not believe that a salary cap is the perfect solution, something needs to be adjusted with the system. Most likely though, nothing will change because the players union would not abide. The 'luxury tax' imposed this past year has some affect, but mostly it is a toothless ruling. To use Shannon Stewart as an example, his inflated $$ value keeps him out of the hands of the Twins & most of the league who could benefit from his presence. Other Twins affected by this are Eddie, Hawk, Mientkeiwicz, AJ .... etc.

In 1991 the high & low team salaries were the A's at $39 mil & Houston at $17 mil. This is an insane increase in 12 years to get to where things are now. I would be interested in seeing what the influence of an $85 million cap would be. This figure is still well above the median team salary, but would prevent all but the most idiotic spenders from offering $15 mil contracts. Geez, who needs $15 mil/year (or $7 mil for that matter)? It's just an ego trip & popularity contest.

So, the question is. If you were to propose something to curb this trend, what would you suggest? Or would you suggest any change at all?

I figured it’s about time for me to answer his question. No, I don’t think anything formal needs to be done to curb this trend. The Yankees crazy spending ways worked for a couple of years. It may have put them in the playoffs, but it hasn’t assured a World Championship. At some point, that spending will really come back to haunt them. I think we’ve already seen that. The Jason Giambi contract was ridiculous and he is still owed $86 million guaranteed (through 2008) plus another $6 million of his bonus. The Jeter contract was terrible (and will be for the next seven seasons as he’s still owed $135 million). Jeff Weaver is owed $15.5 million over the next two seasons. Bernie Williams is guaranteed at least $27.5 million for the next two seasons. Jorge Posada is guaranteed $27.5 million over the next three seasons, plus another $11.5 million of his bonus. If he continues to play as he has the past couple of years, that may be a bargain. Hideki Matsui is owed another $16 million over the next two seasons. Mike Mussina is guaranteed another $49.5 million over the next three years.

When there are that many bad contracts, those players have to play. When those players aren’t contributing as they should, or as they did when they warranted their contracts, it makes for a bad team. Sure, they’ll probably add Gary Sheffield to the team for too much money. They’ll probably acquire a couple more pitchers. They’ll do what it takes for them to feel as though they can win. Does it guarantee they will win? No, just look at the last two seasons. Does giving Gary Sheffield $14 million the next three years guarantee that he will live up to the contract and play as well as he has the first dozen years of his career? Not at all. Teams are sometimes able to sign players for cheaper contracts and get equivalent performances. For instance, the next two seasons, Bernie Williams will make $24 million. Juan Pierre is due $5.7 million over the same time frame. Which player, at this stage of their careers, would you rather have on your team, when factoring in the contract?

I understand the need to blame the salary situation, but I really don’t think anything radical needs to be done. I blame the owners 100% for this situation, and not just George Steinbrenner. In my mind, at least Steinbrenner kept a lot of his core players and was able to sign them long-term. Tom Hicks, owner of the Texas Rangers, obviously doesn’t know baseball. He has made some bad signings in his tenure. And, I don’t think the Rodriguez deal was the worst. Obviously the Chan Ho Park contract is one of the worst in baseball history. But I don’t blame Park for it. That’s all on Hicks!

So, to answer your question, I think the market will correct itself.  If I were a player, I would be proud to be part of a Player’s Union that is so strong. I would play the free agent market and see what offers I can get. I would play the game to get what I wanted. Is that selfish, or is that just smart? That’s not for me to decide. If I am an owner, I would look to the success of the Twins and the A’s, and other small, or mid-market organizations that have been successful. I would then alter my thinking on how to run the team on a budget. That means saying no to some free agents. That means that they need to be creative. What it doesn’t mean is that they can not be successful. That was a myth perpetuated by Bud Selig and the other owners in an attempt to slow down salaries. Maybe it worked. Maybe they got together and decided not to spend money (collusion!?). But not all the owner’s got the message. George Steinbrenner still will spend. And, from everything we hear, Baltimore Orioles owner, Peter Angelos will be spending this offseason as well. I’m sick of people feeling sorry for the Red Sox, because they have a huge payroll as well!

So, collusion? I don’t think so. Some owners making the decision to budget and be smart with their money? Absolutely.

What do you think? Am I right? Am I way off base? What are your thoughts on contracts? E-mail me.
 

TWINS THOUGHTS

A couple of Twins notes from Peter Gammons Diamond Notes from yesterday:

One deal floating out there has Eric Milton going to Boston, but the Twins would have to eat the $3.5 million coming to Ramiro Mendoza.

Depending on who else the Twins would receive, that may not be such a bad trade. I realize that Mendoza had a terrible season with the Red Sox last year, but before that, he had been great in whatever role the Yankees gave him. He could either be a long guy out of the pen, or compete for that 5^th starter spot.

The Twins have to pare payroll so they can try to re-sign Shannon Stewart and either Everyday Eddie Guardado or Hawkins. They have talked to Toronto about Orlando Hudson, as have the Indians, Red Sox and several teams.

The reason Hawkins’ name doesn’t have a link is because earlier, he had been mentioned as possibly going to the Yankees. (Surprise. Surprise). Hudson, a 2B, could be a good pickup for the Twins. Certainly not great. I wouldn’t give up too much to get him though, certainly not Jacque Jones or Eric Milton!

Speaking of the steroids issue (from above), former Twin AJ Pierzynski had to answer questions for a grand jury. They asked him a number of questions, primarily about  his relationship with one of Barry Bonds’ trainers, Greg Anderson, who AJ met while playing with Bonds in Japan last winter.  It was found that Pierzynski doesn’t know anything of any importance to the BALCO (Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative) investigation, so he was excused.

Brian Wolfe was added to the Twins 40 man roster last week. His stint in the Arizona Fall League also ended successfully. Here is his final journal entry.

Friday, I wrote that the Twins should go after Vladimir Guerrero in the free agency market. I followed that up with our Discussion Question of the Week. I had said that it would be published on Thursday, but because it is Thanksgiving week, I will wait until next week to publish your responses. Be sure to check back to the Guerrero article, then check out the question and send me your responses. Here is the question:
 

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

So, what do you think? Could it happen? Should it happen? Is it ok to dream? Look at the economics. I think it is more feasible than many want to think! Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated. Am I way off base? What do you want to see the Twins do? What would your dream transactions for the team be? OK, that’s our Discussion Question for next week! E-mail me your thoughts on these questions. Next week, I’ll post the findings!

BASEBALL TRANSACTIONS

On Friday, the long-anticipated trade between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays finally became official. Tampa native, Tino Martinez will be heading home to play 1B for the D-Rays next season. The Rays sent the Cards Evan Rust. I totally don’t understand this trade from either team’s perspective.

From the Tampa Bay side of things, I wrote that I was excited about the direction the Rays were taking, going with young players and developing their farm system. So, why get a guy who will be 37 years old next season, who has had two straight bad years? The lone thing I can think of is that Martinez will be able to provide a winning attitude having played on those Yankees championship teams.

From the Cardinals perspective, I can understand them wanting to go in a different direction at 1B. Martinez really has been a flop his two seasons with them. Martinez is due to make $7.5 million in 2004 and $8.5 million in 2005 (although the Rays can then opt-out of that contract for $1 million). So, he’s owed another $8.5 million guaranteed. The Cardinals are paying $7 million of his contract for next year! That’s where the deal makes no sense to me! Essentially, they’re paying for Martinez to play for the Devil Rays next year and a prospect. But 25 year old reliever Evan Rust is certainly not categorized as a top prospect. Last season, he split between AA Orlando and AAA Durham. At Orlando, he was 1-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 30 games. He struck out 35 batters in 34 innings. At Durham, he went 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA. In 36 innings, he struck out 26. So, maybe he can help the Cardinal bullpen, which was certainly an issue for the club last season.

The Anaheim Angels signed RHP Kelvim Escobar to a three year, $18.75 million contract. That’s a pretty fair deal for a very solid pitcher. Despite the fact that, in Toronto, Escobar was frequently moving from the bullpen to the rotation and back, Kelvim always produced. Adding Escobar to a rotation that already includes Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz greatly improves their team.
 

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS

Friday night, the Wolves played their first game against the 18 year old phenom, Lebron James, in Cleveland. Although the score may not show it (Wolves 97, Cavs 83), the Wolves really did dominate the entirety of the game. Latrell Sprewell was the show though, scoring 31 points. Kevin Garnett added 20 points, 15 rebounds and 5 assists. Sam Cassell and Fred Hoiberg each added 14 points. The Timberwolves player I was most impressed with was Keith McLoud. He didn’t play a lot, but he showed that he can handle the ball well, pass well (in a set or in transition) and he can hit an open shot or create something from nothing to score. He may just stick around when Troy Hudson comes back! Lebron James did lead the Cavaliers with 19 points, with 9 rebounds. He really didn’t play that well though, with most of his points coming near the game’s end.

Saturday night, the Wolves played without center Michael Olowokandi. He is being listed as day-to-day. He made a great effort to come back quickly from knee surgery, but in doing so, he actually ended up putting a lot of pressure on his other knee. So, he’s going to sit a few games in an attempt to heal. We have seen how good he can be at times already this season, so I’m really not worried. He just needs to get healthy first.

Now, back to Saturday’s game against the L.A. Clippers. The Wolves won the game 103-91. The Wolves didn’t have an answer for Quentin Richardson. He scored 36 for the Clippers. But they were able to control everyone else. Kevin Garnett scored 30 points, with 19 rebounds and 5 assists. Oh, he added 3 steals and 2 blocks, in case you were wondering. There is not a more complete player in the NBA than Kevin Garnett, as shown by KG leading the NBA in Efficiency Points (a statistic showing just that, complete players). Sam Cassell scored 18 points with 8 assists. Latrell Sprewell scored 14 points, while Fred Hoiberg and Gary Trent each added 12.

The Wolves next game is Tuesday night at Indiana. Thoughts on the Wolves?  E-mail me.
 

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

Yesterday, the Vikings defeated the Detroit Lions 24-14, ending their four-game losing streak. Equally important, the team stays one-game ahead of the Green Bay Packers, who beat the San Francisco 49ers.

It certainly was not a pretty game for Vikings fans in the least. I mean, let’s be honest, with 4 minutes remaining, the game was tied at 7. Minnesota struggled its way to a field goal with 4 minutes to go. After that, the defense took over, even more than it had previously in the game. They began blitzing Lions QB Joey Harrington heavily, meaning he had to make quick decisions. Rookie EJ Henderson drilled Harrington, leading to an interception by Corey Chavous (his NFL leading 8^th pick of the year). It resulted in a 32 yard touchdown return, increasing the lead to 17-7. On the first play of the next possession, Brian Williams intercepted Harrington for the third time in the game and returned it 40 yards for another touchdown. The Vikings had a 24-7 lead with just 2:16 to go in the game. That’s a pretty solid minute-forty! The Lions got a late touchdown pass from Joey Harrington to Az-Zahir Hakim. Final Score: Vikings 24, Lions 14.

Michael Bennett looked great again. On 15 carries, he ran for 73 yards and a 25 yard touchdown in the first quarter. It was important to notice, however, that in the fourth quarter, it was Moe Williams getting the touches, on the ground and on swing passes.

Any thoughts on the Vikings, e-mail me.
 

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Because he and Mike Brasel both picked Tampa Bay to beat the New York Football Giants tonight, Aaron Gleeman will be the winner of this week’s football picks. Somehow, he managed to get just two wrong, even with the upsets and surprises and close games. In doing so, he also passed Ben Jacobs in the overall standings. Me? Well, I wasn’t too good. I fell another slot in the standings. But, these things happen. There are still five weeks to go! Remember this coming week, there will be two games on Thanksgiving Thursday. So, we will be giving our picks on Wednesday, so be sure to check back for those. Here are this week’s results:

That’s it for today! It will be a short week. Thanks for stopping by the site. If you have any questions or comments, or would like to answer this week’s Discussion Question of the Week, please e-mail me.

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