Friday November 21, 2003
 

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

TELEVISION THOUGHTS

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

MINNESOTA SPORTS WEEKEND

When the Yankees ended the Twins 2003 season with their 4 game ALDS win, I wrote an article called So… Now What?. In it, I wrote what I would do if I were Terry Ryan. We knew this would be a very interesting offseason. We knew that some players would be gone. We assumed a trade or two. Well, I wrote that on October 9^th. It is now six weeks later and much has already changed. AJ Pierzysnki has been traded. There are rumors of more Twins players being traded. So, I thought it would be interesting to update my “What-the-Twins-should-do” thoughts.  I hope you enjoy, and if you have any thoughts on it, please let me know. Send me an e-mail.
 

DREAM A LITTLE DREAM WITH ME:

VLADIMIR GUERRERO SIGNS WITH TWINS!

I can’t say anything bad about Twins owner Carl Pohlad today. His wife, Eloise, died yesterday, so bashing him is not the plan. But truth tells us that he is unwilling to spend money to maintain many current players on the Twins roster. That’s part of why AJ Pierzynski was already traded. That’s why we are hearing rumors of Jacque Jones, Eric Milton and Brad Radke (among others) possibly being traded in the coming months, if not weeks.

Now I have to say, as I have frequently before, that I understand these trades from both an economic and from a making-the-team-better standpoint.  I said this when discussing the AJ Pierzynski trade on Monday:

Some may not understand how trading a guy like Pierzynski (or Milton or Jones, who could be next) can make them a better team. It has long been my opinion that the Twins current team is very good. However, they have developed such a strong minor league system that they could very well be even stronger by piecing in some of those other players with (or in place of) the current group. If Jones is traded, the likelihood of Stewart returning is more possible (although I think he'll be heading west). I also think that the likes of Cuddyer, Restovich, Ford and Ryan could fill left-field and right field and the Twins wouldn't miss a beat. (I almost hate to say that because as I've mentioned before, Jacque is probably my favorite current Twin) If the Twins trade Milton, there is $9 million available. That could secure both Guardado and Hawkins, leaving a very strong Twins bullpen. But also, JD Durbin impressed so much last season, and even more with Team USA, that he could slot into a 4th spot in the 2004 Twins rotation. A rotation of Santana, Radke, Lohse, Durbin and Balfour may be young, but I think they could be stronger than a group of veterans.

Today, I’m going to forget that Mr. Pohlad is the Twins owner and do a little dreaming with the Twins roster. To be fair, I’ll even do so, while keeping the Twins payroll under $60 million.

First, let’s address some current rumors:

Jacque Jones, and his $4.35 million contract, to the Padres for Xavier Nady and a pitching prospect. Unless that pitching prospect is a top prospect, I don’t like the deal. I feel Jones is expendable, but I don’t see Nady being a better option than any of the other young Twins outfielders. It would be a great move for Jones. He would be going back home. It would also mean a move to center field for him, which would be great for the Padres!

Brad Radke, and his $10 million contract, to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. According to the D-Rays Blog, there have been talks about Radke between the Twins and the Rays. It would be a return home for Radke. It would be a very good pitcher for the Rays. However, I think the belief is that the Rays would want Radke to sign an extension before they would make a trade. Maybe the Twins could coax Delmon Young (OK, he’s not even eligible to be traded until July!) or BJ Upton (which would be GREAT!). But the Rays also have a few very good pitching prospect that the Twins would probably love, including Chad Gaudin, Doug Waechter, and even Dewon Brazelton.

Eric Milton, and his $9 million contract, to the New York Mets. The Mets may be trying to sign Kaz Matsui and Luis Castillo. What does that mean? Maybe Jose Reyes could be available! He’s also rumored to be going to the Red Sox. They don’t have much in their minor league system. Maybe they could get The Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youklis. He could get a full year of AAA seasoning before taking over for Corey Koskie at 3B in 2005.

I think that they should only get rid of one of the two pitchers, and if I had a choice, I would rather keep Brad Radke because of his composure, although I’m also excited to see the new and improved (and healthy) Eric Milton. OK, if it is Milton that goes along with Jacque Jones, there is $14.5 million off the books. Why try to go after Shannon Stewart?  Let’s get Vlad Guerrero!!  Yeah, he’ll cost probably $14 million next season, and he’d probably sign a contract at least 5 years long. So, annual raises of $1 million means a 5 year, $80 million deal.

Now, I know, that doesn’t fall in line with much of what the Twins (usually) try to do. However, think about it. The Twins have been looking for a big, right handed bat (along with a new stadium and an audience for their new TV station) for a long time. Aside from Alex Rodriguez, there may not be a bigger right-handed bat in all of baseball! Check out Guerrero’s career statistics for a few minutes:

Now, look at them again. They are incredible. He’s a potential 40/40 player. He did have some back problems this season, but previously he had no injury problems. For a big power hitter, Guerrero really doesn’t strike out very much. A five-tool talent, Guerrero is also intimidating defensively. His rocket arm used to lead the league in assists, but now, it’s infrequent that anyone tries to take an extra base on him. I think it is pretty well known that Guerrero is probably not made for the big cities like New York or Chicago, so where better for him to play? Minneapolis!

So, continuing the dream, let’s take a look at the standard lineup this would present for the Twins:

Hey, since we’re dreaming, why not go after Fernando Vina? I think he would be reasonably priced. But take a second and just look at those two lineups. Lew Ford has a great approach at the plate and will get on base. Doug Mientkiewicz has always been an ideal #2 hitter. Good bat control, and hits a lot of doubles. If you’ve got a couple of on-base type guys at the top of the order with Vlad Guerrero coming up, that’s a very exciting situation! Whether Morneau or Lecroy at DH, there is a power threat. I know a lot of people are down on Morneau because of his struggles, but the man can hit, and he can hit the ball a long ways! Yes, he will strike out a bit, but he’ll also hit a lot of home runs. I also think he’ll be able to hit lefties and Lecroy will do plenty of catching throughout the season too. Torii Hunter can’t hit much worse than he did in 2003, but he should be able to pick up plenty of RBI in the 5 hole. Corey Koskie now hasn’t hit left-handed pitching for a couple of years, and with his injury history, it may be a good idea to platoon him at 3B. Michael Cuddyer needs to play. 3B, LF, 1B, DH. He needs to finally get a real chance to play. Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas should not be next to each other in the lineup, and maybe occassionally Guzman can get on for Joe Mauer. Hitting 8^th, there will be less pressure on Mauer. Some people think he’ll really struggle in the big leagues, but I think he’ll do just fine. I think .280/.360/.430 would be a very good rookie year for him and just the start of huge things. Luis Rivas will still be cheap. He can play 2B against lefties and otherwise be a utility middle infielder. Again, I think Fernando Vina will be very affordable and an excellent pick up!

So, I think the offensive lineup will be very solid, the questions becomes What about the pitching? Losing Eric Milton will leave a huge, gaping hole, but the Twins have a couple of very good starting pitchers to replace them at the top of the rotation. Johan Santana can be as good as any pitcher in the American League. Kyle Lohse took a step forward last season and may be ready for another leap in 2004. Brad Radke will probably be solid again. I would like to see him put together a full season of solid pitching and see what he is capable of. But after those three, then come the question marks. My opinion, let’s go with JD Durbin in that 4^th spot in the rotation. I don’t want to see him come up and be a 5^th starter, who gets missed when there are off days. He needs to be a regular part of the rotation. Then, for the 5^th starter, the likes of Grant Balfour and Brad Thomas should get a chance, although picking up some veteran pitcher for the league minimum should also be considered.

In the bullpen, I don’t see the Twins keeping LaTroy Hawkins, and I don’t think that resigning Eddie Guardado is as big a deal as many may think. Here is my thought with the bullpen, assuming neither player is resigned. Closer - Jesse Crain. I’ve read that they don’t know that he would be ready. Well, he is 22 years old. Throws hard, and has pretty good control. He was successful at 3 levels of the minor leagues last year as well as with Team USA. Right Handed relievers - Joe Nathan isn’t LaTroy Hawkins, but he’s pretty close and throws very hard. Juan Rincon had a very strong rookie season and is a very good second set up man. Left-Handed relievers - JC Romero needs to be better next season than he was in 2003, but I think that’s possible. I would like to see Carlos Pulido as the second lefty in the pen.  That leaves one or two bullpen spots up for grabs. Grant Balfour, Brad Thomas, Adam Johnson, Michael Nakamura and others can battle for those spots.

In other words, the Twins would have a very strong offensive attack including one of the best overall players in baseball, giving them the right-handed power hitter they’ve wanted for so long. The starting staff has 3/5^th of itself back from last year with JD Durbin given his first shot. And I think even if Hawk and Eddie Guardado leave, the bullpen can still be very strong!

I think the Twins would win the AL Central again in 2004, and with another year under their belt, this team could legitimately compete for a World Series championship in 2005! As I’ve said before, I think the current team has shown how good it can be. Now, sprinkle in some of these other players and the potential is far higher!  That is what I am very excited for!
 

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

So, what do you think? Could it happen? Should it happen? Is it ok to dream? Look at the economics. I think it is more feasible than many want to think! Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated. Am I way off base? What do you want to see the Twins do?  What  would your dream transactions for the team be? OK, that’s our Discussion Question for next week! E-mail me your thoughts on these questions. Next Thursday, I’ll post the findings!

TELEVISION THOUGHTS

Here are the rundowns of a few of the shows that I am watching and enjoying these days. If you have any comments or questions on any of them, send me an e-mail and let’s discuss them.

Days of our Lives - if there are any others out there who watch Days and have any idea what’s going on, PLEASE e-mail me and let me know. Every time I start figuring out who the serial killer might be, then something happens so that it can’t be that person. I need your help!!!

The Bachelor - I refrained from posting my thoughts yesterday, to give those of you who were unable to watch the season finale of The Bachelor on Wednesday night, taped it and watched it last night. If you are watching it this weekend, please don’t continue!

I have to admit, going into Wednesday night, I would have easily favored Kelli Jo. I was not a big Estella fan throughout the show. She wasn’t that attractive. She seemed very emotional and maybe a little too psycho! But on Wednesday night, that really changed. She actually looked good. She interacted with Bob and his family so well. She just presented herself well. Kelli Jo really was fine too, but I thought that Estella really starred with his parents.

By the time we saw Kelli Jo getting out of the limo first, knowing she wasn’t going to win, I wasn’t that surprised. She was! I haven’t really seen that reaction in previous Bachelor shows. She was completely shocked, and I can’t really blame her.

Also, I really liked that Bob didn’t propose to Estella. I like that he gave her the ring and asked her to put it on her right hand. Sure, she would have said yes anyway, but I think that how he handled that was much more fair. I think it is smart for them to date for awhile in the “real world”, not on a TV show. They need to get to know each other away from the cameras before they make that kind of commitment. It will be an interesting story to follow, and I’m sure that the magazines will keep us updated.

Average Joe - Now this was a very creative reality show! 15 “normal”, average guys all vying for the heart of a gorgeous woman. Guys who are nerds, skinny, fat or dorky all have the chance to meet Malena. On Monday, she dropped three more guys, so she had just three left. But then came the twist to the show that will make it very interest. Three “hunks” were brought onto the show, so again, there are six men left in the house. Will Malena continue the relationships that she has developed or will she go after the hunks? Should be very interesting!

Boston Public - It continues to be my favorite drama. However, it is frustrating that it had to move to Friday night! It’s hard to remember that it is on then. And, it’s not like I’m home every Friday night to watch it.

Survivor - It’s just a show that you have to watch every second. The competitions are all so great. And figuring out the strategies as you’re watching the show is fantastic. They are now down to 7 tribe members. It will only get better from here on out. Last night’s vote was somewhat surprising, but to give themselves a legitimate shot at winning, they had to remove the strongest person. And, by the way, the imagine of the snake eating the lizard was the most disturbing thing I’ve ever seen!

Ed - Ed’s proposal to Carol was very cool! They were right, only on Ed could they come up with a proposal like that! Using a paper Carol had written in elementary school on 25 things that made her happy, Ed gave her all 25 of those things as gifts. Then, when they got to the end of the list, he said he had one more gift for her. He got down on his knee and proposed. She said Yes, by the way!

Friends - The last year. Last night was their final Thanksgiving. Chandler and Monica found out that they will be adopting a baby. Phoebe and Mike are planning their wedding. But there is still more than half the season to go, and I can’t wait for every one of those episodes. When it starts counting down to those final 3 or 4 episodes, it will be very tough!

Good Morning, Miami - It was moved from Thursday to Tuesday night, but I think it has continued to get better and better. Dylon and Jake are now together. And, let’s be honest, any show that adds Tiffani Thiessen and Jillian Barberie to their cast is going to be good!

I’m With Her - This show continues to be my favorite new comedy. A regular-world, high school teacher meets a famous actress and they start to date. I think it is so funny. It shows all of the standard dating issues, but it’s just done much funnier way using the unlikely, or unusual, situation it presents.

8 Simple Rules - I think that the writers, actors and all those involved with getting 8 Simple Rules back on the air so quickly deserve a lot of credit for how well they have handled the death of John Ritter. It has to be such a difficult situation. I think the three episodes without Ritter in them have been very funny, yet very classy and respectful and does a good job of addressing the issues a family could have after a death in the family. They definitely should keep John Ritter and this storyline in every episode. However, I do fear that if they continue to put so much focus on it so much in each episode, it could quickly lose viewership.

Cancellations - I’m not sure if the shows were canceled or just put ‘on hiatus’, but a couple of shows that I was trying to watch have now been put ‘on hiatus’. Fox people have to be shocked that Skin wasn’t hugely successful considering how many times it was advertised during the baseball playoffs. Maybe baseball fans thought they had actually seen the entire season during those commercials. The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H., was also canceled by CBS. I don’t understand why more people didn’t watch this show. I thought it was funny, yet still a family drama that dealt with issues well. It was probably my new favorite drama!
 

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Well, we all did much better last week. There are 16 more games this week. Take a look at who our panelists picked, then check out my summary after the picks. Be sure to check out the FB Picks page and see the standings and also check out the bios of our great panelists! Here’s a little about what they write about:

Aaron Gleeman has been a huge Bobby Kielty fan. Yesterday, he discussed his trade to the Oakland A’s. Today, he discusses more about Kielty, answering some of his reader’s questions.

Ben Jacobs writes a great blog called Universal Baseball Blog. Although he normally only discusses baseball there, he did write a movie review on Matrix Revolutions. He also writes for the Rochester (NY) Democrat and Chronicle, including a Friday Fantasy Football column.

David Lee writes over at Braves Buzz. Obviously he writes about the Atlanta Braves, including a bit on the rumors of Doug Mientkiewicz being traded to Atlanta.

Michael Labuda writes ChiSox Daily, a great site for White Sox information, politics and more!

I guess I would have thought that people would have started not picking the Vikings, but again, 8 of the 9 panelists think the Vikings will win against the Lions. I guess I was the only one thinking that I wouldn’t pick the Vikings. Here is the summary of our collective picks:

Indianapolis @ Buffalo - Colts 9-0

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland - Browns 7-2

Carolina @ Dallas - Panthers 5-4

Detroit @ Minnesota - Vikings 8-1

Jacksonville @ NY Jets - Jets 8-1

New Orleans @ Philadelphia - Eagles 9-0

San Francisco @ Green Bay - 49ers 5-4

Seattle @ Baltimore - Seahawks 5-4 (offense vs. defense)

New England @ Houston - Patriots 8-1

St. Louis @ Arizona - Rams 9-0

Chicago @ Denver - Broncos 9-0

Cincinnati @ San Diego - Bengals 6-3 (Who would have thought the Bengals would be favored in a game?)

Oakland @ Kansas City - Chiefs 9-0 (Big game for Chiefs following the loss to the Bengals)

Tennessee @ Atlanta - Titans 9-0

Washington @ Miami - Dolphins 9-0

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay -Buccaneers 7-2 (with Keyshawn Gone, will the Buccs turn it around?)

MINNESOTA  SPORTS WEEKEND

As I mentioned the other day, tonight, the Minnesota Timberwolves are in Cleveland to play the Cavaliers including Ricky Davis, Darius Miles  and, of course, Lebron James. James leads the team with 17.5 points and with 6.7 assists per game, but also is averaging 6.5 rebounds. He’s a very well rounded player. The game is on ESPN at 7:00 (central time), so be sure to check it out.

Saturday night, the Wolves are back home to take on Elton Brand and the LA Clippers.

Kevin Garnett leads the team with 22.4 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks. He also averages 4.5 assists a game. Sam Cassell is averaging 15.9 points and 7.2 assists, while Latrell Sprewell is averaging 15.7 points and 4.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists.

The Gophers football team has a bye and will await news on where they will by playing their bowl game, which team they will play.

The Gophers hockey team plays a weekend series at Mariucci against Michigan Tech starting tonight. Check out the Gopher hockey site for an article on Baudette, MN, native Jon Waible.

The Gophers basketball team lost at Utah in the preseason NIT on Wednesday, so they don’t play this weekend. Kris Humphries played great again, scoring 20 points and grabbing 10 rebounds.

The University of North Dakota football team plays Pittsburgh St (KS) Saturday in Grand Forks, in the first round of the Division II playoffs.

The UND hockey team, the #1 team in Division I hockey, plays a weekend series at # 8 Denver.

After beating the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night and losing to the Philadelphia Flyers last night, the Minnesota Wild will host the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday night. The Wild are currently 8-8-3, and in 4^th place in the division.

The Minnesota Vikings and their four-game losing streak take on the Detroit Lions at Metrodome on Sunday at noon. Although I picked the Lions in my FB Picks, I think that the Vikings will dominate the game and blow out the Lions. (or, maybe I just hope?)

Well, there you have it for today and for this week! I hope you have a great weekend. Be sure to check out and respond to the new Discussion Question of the Week, or just e-mail me on anything you’ve read.

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