Wednesday, November 17, 2004
BASEBALL THOUGHTS (GUZZY'S GONE / AL MVP VOTING)
NBA THOUGHTS (WOLVES WIN / KRIS HUMPHREYS)
Technical Difficulties
Good morning! I have to apologize to those who are looking for the Top 100 Centerfielders today. We had some technical difficulties that have to be addressed before I will be able to post them. It should be available tomorrow! Thank you for your patience!
But that is OK. There is actually plenty to talk about today, so I'll just address a number of topics in a hurry and would love to hear your thoughts on any of these topics. If you've missed any of the Top 100 lists, check these out:
All-Time Top 100s: First Basemen
All-Time Top 100s: Second Basemen
All-Time Top 100s: Third Basemen
All-Time Top 100s: Left Fielders
First things first, I do have a website that I would like to plug for a good friend named Jay Deboer. He has been developing it for months and would like for more people to take a look at it. You can find it at www.christmas-list.org. Check it out, it is getting close to Christmas and this tool could be quite helpful! It is a place where you can actually make Christmas lists. I have seen it in action, and it is really remarkable. (Jay would also love your thoughts on it. If you have any, please e-mail me and I will forward them to him.) Now, let me use his words to describe it:
This is a free site to allow families to be able to share their Christmas lists with each other easily...
Once you have signed up and joined or created a family you will be able to add items to your wish list, view other family members lists, and join other families. You will also be able to mark items on other family member lists as purchased so they will not receive two of one item. Note: The way this works is you can not see what has been purchased for yourself, only other family members. What fun would it be to know what you are getting for Christmas!If you have any questions for me, or if you have any questions for Justin Ahern, who did the work, please e-mail me, and I will be sure to forward your thoughts to him.
Last off-season was a rough one for Twins fans. The Twins lost Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins without much effort. Terry Ryan masterfully traded AJ Pierzynski and Eric Milton for guys who contributed to the major league club and guys that will in the near future along with saving a lot of money. During the season, Doug Mientkiewicz was traded to make room for Justin Morneau.
The Twins (wisely) have made their #1 priority this off-season to sign Brad Radke. They have offered him a 2 year, $15 million deal. I think we all know that he will have multiple offers for more money from other teams. So, how high will the Twins go to keep their veteran pitcher (who, by the way, was statistically the 3rd best pitcher in the American League behind Johan Santana and Curt Schilling)? And, will that decision cost them the #2 guy they'd like to retain, Corey Koskie? Although, Koskie is certainly testing the waters.
Yesterday, the next guy down the ladder decided to take the best offer and signed elsewhere, before the Twins even really talked to him. It is very similar to the Hawkins situation last year. The Twins never offered The Hawk a thing, so he signed early with the Cubs.
Now, I was upset that the Twins lost Hawkins without making him so much as a decent offer to consider. I am thrilled that the Twins did not sign Guzman for a number of reasons.
It became very obvious that that Twins would not pick up Guzman's option for $5.25 million during the season. But Sunday, when the San Francisco Giants (for some reason) decided that Omar Vizquel (who will be 38 years old next season) was worth a 3 year, $12.25 million contract. That is an absolutely ridiculous contract for many reasons that I won't get into here (Aaron Gleeman did a great job of analyzing Vizquel's deal yesterday!)
But that was like the first domino, and what it did was set the market value for shortstops. The question was if a 38 year old SS who doesn't really do much offensively and whose defense has diminished drastically receives a 3 year deal for over $4 million a year, what would a 26 year old shortstop who doesn't hit much but is actually a very good defender receive. Well, Jim Bowden, the GM of the Washington Whatever-Their-Names-Will-Be's (Gleeman has a good name for them today!) decided that Guzman was worth about $4.2 million a year for four seasons. That's right, Guzman signed a 4 year, $16.8 million deal and will (possibly) be playing his home games in our nation's capital.
Now, before I rip Guzman (which I won't do), I do have to say that I really would like to see him do well. I mean that. When he was an All-Star in 2001, he was a fun player to watch. He'd hit the ball all over the field, hit line drives and run. After a couple injuries, it seems the team determined that he should no longer swing hard and he started slapping at everything. In recent years, his speed has seemed to drop. I want him to be able to go to DC and hit well and see him utilize his speed more! He never has been an on-base guy and likely never will be. But I do believe he can still be at least an average major league shortstop, and I hope he can be again!
That said, the Twins were completely right in letting him go. There is no way to justify that kind of money for a guy who gets on base less than 3 out of 10 times. Not for over $4 million!
So, what are the SS options?
Well, I have read recently that the team might consider moving Luis Rivas over to SS from 2B. Rivas is a natural SS, so defensively, I believe he would be fine by the end of spring training. However, the Twins have to ask themselves if Rivas, at a new position, would be worth the $2.5 million he will likely command in arbitration. Seth Says - No More Rivas!
Augie Ojeda or Nick Punto - First, Augie Ojeda's career batting average is below .200. So, even though he did great for the Twins the last six weeks of the season, he is not a guy who should be an every day player. He's just fine in a utility role! Same thing with Punto, although I do believe his upside is far higher than Ojeda's (which is actually more of a slam on Ojeda than a positive for Punto). Both of these guys are professional players and should make the team next spring, but not as every day players.
Jason Bartlett - OK, anyone who has read this site for much time knows that my choice would certainly be Jason Bartlett. No, he isn't very good defensively yet. But he is nowhere near as bad as everyone seems to want to think. Offensively, he can be so much better than Guzman. Bartlett is fast, and is a legitimate top of the order hitter. He takes pitches, works counts, takes walks, and last year, he did hit .330 at AAA. He won't hit for power, but will get on base, something Guzman never did. In other words, with Bartlett (compared to Guzman), the defense would certainly take a step backward. But offensively, it would be a huge improvement (and don't look at his 1-12 with the Twins in September means anything).
Strib writer Lavelle E. Neal wrote a great series of articles on the Arizona Fall League and specifically on the Twins impressive representation (Jason Bartlett, Kevin West, Scott Baker, JD Durbin, Jesse Crain; exception - Rob Bowen). He wrote an article on Jason Bartlett that is well worth the read.
Free agents - I have read a few names and mentioned some here. Guys I wouldn't mind for one year - Barry Larkin or Pokey Reese. Larkin would be a good mentor and if he stays healthy could be just fine. Reese can't hit at all, but defensively I would love to see him! Both could come cheap. I also like Julio Lugo, but I do think he would be expensive.
What are your thoughts on Guzman signing with Washington? Do you think that Brad Radke will end up in a Twins uniform next year? How about Corey Koskie? E-mail me.
Yesterday, the Angels Vlad Guerrero was named the AL MVP. It was the ninth straight season in which the AL MVP came from the AL West. I realize that is more of an anomaly than anything else, but it is really ironic it seems.
Just a couple of notes on the voting. The Yankees Gary Sheffield came in 2nd place. Alex Rodriguez came in near 12th place. Hideki Matsui received one 9th place vote. Here are their numbers:
Gary Sheffield - .290/.393/.534, 30 doubles, 36 HR, 121 RBI
Alex Rodriguez - .286/.375/.512, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 106 RBI
Hideki Matsui - .298/.390/.522, 34 doubles, 31 HR, 108 RBI
Now, you tell me how Sheffield is clearly higher in the voting than A-Rod and Matsui? Explain to me why Sheffield's numbers are better than Matsui's? Where is the discrepancy???
Twins fans, Johan Santana came in 6th place in the voting behind Guerrero, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Miguel Tejada. I know how important Johan was to the Twins this year, but it is hard to argue a pitcher (who started 34 games) is more valuable than any of those five. So, I'm very pleased with that finish. I was also happy to see Joe Nathan get some recognition, finishing 11th in voting with a fifth, a sixth and a tenth place vote. Torii Hunter came in 20th. He received just one 7th place vote. I am thrilled that Lew Ford's impressive season got notice too. He received one 9th place vote (the same as Hideki Matsui and Detroit's Carlos Guillen).
Also, I'm happy that voters noticed that Michael Young was the Texas Rangers MVP this year! He finished 8th in the voting. Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira also received votes. Interestingly, the long member of their infield that did not receive votes was Alfonso Soriano.
And finally, I have to do a quick checklist of how I did in my predictions for this year's awards. I guess six out of eight isn't too bad.
Seth's Pick Actual Winner
AL Manager Mike Scioscia Buck Showalter
NL Manager Bobby Cox Bobby Cox
AL Rookie Bobby Crosby Bobby Crosby
NL Rookie Jason Bay Jason Bay
AL Cy Young Johan Santana Johan Santana
NL Cy Young Randy Johnson Roger Clemens
AL MVP Vlad Guerrero Vlad Guerrero
NL MVP Barry Bonds Barry Bonds
Do you have any thoughts on the MVP voting or any of the other MLB Awards? E-mail me.
The Wolves got a big win over a good Miami Heat team last night. Shaquille O'Neal gets all the credit, but not a lot of people know just how good Dwayne Wade really is! He may be another excellent case sample (along with that Duncan guy that plays in San Antonio) for how four years of college can be a very good thing! The Marquette grad really may be the key to the Heat's success.
Last night, Wade led the Heat with 25 points and 6 assists. Of course, O'Neal made his presence known too with 20 points, 15 rebounds and 4 blocked shots.
Of course, the poster child for coming straight out of high school would be none other than reigning MVP Kevin Garnett. And last night, he was right up there with his best. He notched yet another double-double just seven seconds into the 2nd quarter. He ended with 25 points, 21 rebounds and 8 assists. Much of the first half, he was helped by the sharp-shooting of Wally Szczerbiak. Wally ended the game with 21 points. Maybe Sam Cassell is coming out of his funk. Last night, he had 19 points. Troy Hudson added 12 points in 16 minutes. He also had 3 assists, the same number Cassell had in 30 minutes. All the role players played their roles.
To me, again, the big bonus offered by the team's depth is their ability to give their starters more bench time throughout the regular season. Let's be honest, the Wolves are going to make the playoffs this year. Sure, every game matters, but as Phil Jackson would tell you, you also need to have your stars ready to go full speed in the playoffs. Last year, Garnett was incredible all season, but against the Lakers, you could tell that he was tired. In his rookie season, Garnett averaged just 28.7 minutes per game. In the eight seasons since then, he has averaged no less than 37.9 minutes a game. Through the season's first five games, Garnett is averaging over 41 minutes a game. I understand he's a star. I understand he doesn't want to come out of a game. But, he really needs to because in his 47 career playoff games, he has averaged almost 43 minutes a game! Eddie Griffin's development with the team will play a big role in taking some minutes from KG. Last night's win was really relatively easy. KG played 35 minutes, the only starter who played more than 30 minutes. Ten players played more than 12 minutes in the game! That's a good thing!
Any thoughts on the Wolves? E-mail me.
Kris Humphreys - I heard that Kris Humphreys was already complaining about his playing time in the Jazz's first six games, Humphreys played a total of eight minutes in four of the games. He scored 1 point and grabbed no rebounds. The 19 year old can complain all he wants, but who is he going to steal minutes from? Andrei Kirilenko is one of the best all around players in the NBA, and Carlos Boozer is one of the better power forwards in basketball (behind the likes of Duncan and Garnett, of course) and is averaging a double-double so far this season. Yesterday, the Jazz took PG Carlos Arroyo off the injured list and put Humphreys on it with knee tendonitis. Yes, that is one of those fake injuries things! (Side note for Wolves fans - Last year I talked about how much I liked when the Wolves had PG Keith McLeod. Well, he started in Arroyo's absence and in 25 minutes a game, he averaged nine points and almost 6 assists a game.)
Some may think that me writing these things would say that I think he made a mistake in entering the NBA Draft after his freshman year at the University of Minnesota. Absolutely not! First, under the tutelage of Dan Monson, he would not have improved on his season in which he led the Big 10 Conference in both scoring and rebounding. He was the lone focal point on the team. Some may argue that he was the Gophers only option. I sometimes subscribe to that point. But the real good players find ways to make the guys around him better. Kevin Garnett is the perfect example of what a player should be. He makes everyone around him better and he allows them to succeed. Humphreys never did that at Minnesota, and I don't believe he was ever asked to! All told, it was really a wasted season at Minnesota because no one got better except Humphreys and for it, the school got one year. Second, he signed a contract that will ensure he will make between $3.8 and $5.2 million (over the next three or four years). He isn't Rick Rickert who was in no way guaranteed a 1st round selection (guaranteeing a guaranteed contract). He was a known commodity who was going to go as high as the late lottery. You don't turn down that kind of assured money. And finally, the Jazz didn't necessarily take him for this year, but instead to contribute over the next few seasons. Jerry Sloan is known for not playing rookies. That said, that Boozer/Kirilenko combo will be around for awhile!
What do you think? E-mail me.
That's it for today. Please feel free to let me know what you think. Have yourself a great day! If you have any questions, comments or ideas for future topics, please e-mail me.