Friday, November 10, 2006
Free Agents: The Righty Relievers
Hello All! Today, we've got a pretty full slate with the NFL "Expert"Picks and 26 more free agents to review and project. Are you impressed that I haven't even talked about Britney and K-Fed, or that I didn't even discuss the election, or its unfortunate results? It's been a busy week.
We started by looking at the starting pitchers, and yesterday, we looked at the Left-Handed relievers. Today, I will talk about the right-handed relievers. And be sure to come back early next week when I discuss the hitters. That's when talking contract gets really interesting! I will attempt to predict where the players may go and for how much. Like any prediction or projection, it is a glorified guess, but I would like to put my guesses out there and compare my lists to the "experts" picks and see how I do. My information comes from things I've read or heard, but mainly it is just me, trying to think like a GM and trying to place players with teams that make sense. I'd love to hear your thoughts on any of them, so let's get some Comments going.
There are 26 right-handed relievers on the market as of now. I am going to name the players, their former team, a couple of comments on them, my projection for where they will end up and for the contract they could receive. Finally, I will tie this into the Twins, since this is a Twins blog, and discuss if that player makes any sense for the team. In my opinion, the Twins don't really need to bring in a right-handed reliever as I believe they are already set. That's why the word "None" is so prevalent below in the Twins Interest section. However, in the event of a trade, it never hurts to have enough pitching. And, if some of the better relievers find out they can only land a minor league deal, why not? Let's get it started:
Right-Handed Relief Pitchers (26)
Danys Baez
2006 Team - Atlanta Braves
Comments - Baez has been a solid closer and a good set up man, so he can fit any role. He is just 29 years old and still throws the ball very well. He could still make a lot of money. He just needs to stay durable.
2007 Projection - Atlanta Braves
Contract - 2 year, $8 million.
Actual - Orioles, 3 years, $19 million
Twins Interest? - He's good, but the Twins bullpen is strong and they don't need to pay this much for quality bullpen guys. But, on the positive side, I believe he and Torii get along now.
Joe Borowski
2006 Team - Florida Marlins
Comments - Borowski was very good with the Cubs in 2002 and 2003, but then he was hurt and struggled the next two years. Last year, he became the Marlins closer and had 36 saves in 43 chances. He was 3-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Solid, but unspectacular numbers. He did have 64 strikeouts in 69.2 innings, but he also walked 33.
2007 Projection - Florida Marlins
Contract - 1 year, $1.25 million, with option year.
Twins Interest? - None.
Chad Bradford
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - At 6-5, Bradord has good size for a pitcher. You hear people talk about that high release point, and the downward trajectory that a tall pitcher can have... and then Bradford throws the ball from the ground. Many pitches, his knuckles rub on the mound's dirt. Last year, he appeared in 70 games (62 innings) for the Mets and had a 2.90 ERA.
2007 Projection - NY Mets
Contract - 2 years, $3.8 million
Actual - Orioles, 3 years, $10.5 million
Twins Interest? - How cool would it be to have Bradford and Pat Neshek in the same bullpen!?
Doug Brocail
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - Brocail has been around for a long time in the relief role, since 1992 to be exact. His best years with with Detroit in the late '90s when he posted ERAs between 2.52 and 3.23. Last year, in his return to the Padre organization that he started his career with, he pitched in just 25 games and in 28.1 innings, he went 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA. He pitched games starting in mid-July, three months after undergoing two heart angioplasties in the spring.
2007 Projection - San Diego Padres
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - none.
Mike Dejean
2006 Team - Colorado Rockies
Comments - Dejean was a solid reliever from 1997-2002, but since then, his ERA has been in the mid-to-upper fours, still not horrible. Last year, he made just two appearances for the Rockies before having season-ending shoulder surgery.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - Minor league
Twins Interest? - None.
Octavio Dotel
2006 Team - NY Yankees
Comments - Knowing that Dotel had Tommy John surgery in June of 2005, the Yankees gave Dotel $2 million knowing he would not pitch for them until late in the season. He came back in mid-August and pitched 10 innings over 14 games and had a 10.80 ERA. Before that, Dotel was one of the better set up men in baseball with nasty stuff. However, when asked to be a closer, he is another guy who struggled. For some reason, the Yankees didn't back up their risk with a second year option, so he is a free agent again at the age of 32.
2007 Projection - Chicago Cubs
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - Probably not although they showed interest last offseason despite the injury.
Ryan Franklin
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - How Franklin got a $2.6 million contract from the Phillies a year ago is beyond me. Then Franklin became one of 258 relievers acquired by the Reds. Franklin was a decent starter in Seattle, often pitching better than his W-L record would indicate, but then his final year there, he was bad.
2007 Projection - Kansas City Royals
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - No, thank you.
Eric Gagne
2006 Team - Los Angeles Dodgers
Comments - Gagne was one of the most dominant closers in baseball for about three years. Sure, before that he was a failed started who walked too many and didn't strike out even a batter an inning, but he became a dominant closer. After the 2004 season, Gagne signed a 2 year, $18 million contract. And for that, the Dodgers got 16 games and 15.1 innings over the past two years. I wouldn't have picked up his option either.
2007 Projection - Chicago Cubs
Contract - 1 year, $3 million with incentives and options.
Twins Interest? - None.
LaTroy Hawkins
2006 Team - Baltimore Orioles
Comments - Although the former Twins pitcher has never been very good as a closer, he has been very solid as a set up man. Last year, he was not as good, 3-2 with a 4.48 ERA in 60 games. However, he is just 33 years old now and has several good years left in his strong right arm.
2007 Projection - Cleveland Indians
Contract - 1 year, $2.5 million
Actual - Rockies, 1 year, $3.8 million
Twins Interest? - None.
Rick Helling
2006 Team - Milwaukee Brewers
Comments - Helling has had somewhat of a rebirth with the Milwaukee Brewers the last two seasons. He has pitched league average. However, he has only pitched in 35 games over the two years because of several injuries.
2007 Projection - Retired, or
Contract - Minor League
Twins Interest? - None.
Matt Herges
2006 Team - Florida Marlins
Comments - Herges pitched in 71 innings last year, and he walked 28 and struck out just 36. He has not had a great season since 2002.
2007 Projection - Florida Marlins
Contract - 1 year, $750,000
Twins Interest? - None.
Dustin Hermanson
2006 Team - Chicago White Sox
Comments - It has never been about talent with Hermanson, but he has fought injury much of his career. He did a great job as the White Sox closer in 2005, but he missed the final month of that season with injury and Bobby Jenks got the World Series glory. Last year, he pitched in just six games before being hurt.
2007 Projection - Retired
Contract - Minor League
Twins Interest? - None.
Roberto Hernandez
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - How much more is in the tank. 41 year old Hernandez just keeps on ticking. Combined between the Pirates and Mets, he pitched in 68 games last year, compiling an 0-3 record, but posting a solid 3.11 ERA. In 63 innings, he struck out 48, but he also walked 32.
2007 Projection - NY Mets
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Actual - Indians, 1 year, $3.5 million, and option
Twins Interest? - None
Dan Kolb
2006 Team - Milwaukee Brewers
Comments - Ah, that closers role just isn't meant for everyone, is it? Kolb was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2002 and 2003, but then he was dealt to the Braves before the 2005 season (for Jose Capellan), and he had a horrible year. The Braves sent him back to the Brewers, and Kolb, although better, just wasn't the same. He is just 31 years old, so he could find it again.
2007 Projection - Chicago Cubs
Contract - 1 year, $1 million.
Twins Interest? - None
Brian Meadows
2006 Team - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Comments - Meadows was one of several relievers given the shot to be their closer. He had eight saves, but his 5.17 ERA overall was still not impressive. At 30 years old, he still has some value, but not a lot.
2007 Projection - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Contract - 1 year, $750,000
Twins Interest? - None
Jose Mesa
2006 Team - Colorado Rockies
Comments - Mesa pitched 72.1 innings in 79 games last year for the Rockies. He had a solid 3.86 ERA and they did not pick up his option. He had 36 walks and 39 strikeouts, so clearly his age is catching up to him. He has had a solid career.
2007 Projection - Chicago Cubs
Contract - 1 year, $1.2 million
Twins Interest? - None.
Guillermo Mota
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - Well, I guess we know how he suddenly starting pitching well late in the season and in the playoffs. That 50 game suspension has to hurt his free agent value immensely. I don't think he'll make near the $3 million salary he made last year. At 33 years old, this will be an interesting offseason for Mota. he had a 4.53 ERA last year which may have dropped him dollar-wise anyway, so it will be interesting to see how the suspension affects his value.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - 1 year, $2 million (and then a little more than a quarter of that will be forfeited)
Twins Interest? - None
Jeff Nelson
2006 Team - Chicago White Sox
Comments - It may be the end of the road for the 6-8, 39 year old sidewinder. Nelson signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last year and was called up on May 24. He was put on the DL on June 5 with an elbow injury.
2007 Projection - Retired
Contract - Retired, or minor league deal
Twins Interest? - None.
Troy Percival
2006 Team - Detroit Tigers
Comments - Percival left the Angels after the 2004 season and quickly signed a nice two year contract with the Detroit Tigers. For about $16 million, the Tigers got 25 innings and eight saves. Injuries just caught up to him, even in his last couple of seasons with the Angels.
2007 Projection - Retired
Contract - Retired
Twins Interest? - No thank you.
David Riske
2006 Team - Chicago White Sox
Comments - After six years in Cleveland, Riske signed to be a part of the Red Sox bullpen. He was injured to start the year, then was traded to the White Sox. All told, he was 1-2 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He is just 30 years old, so I think there will be a market for him.
2007 Projection - Cleveland Indians
Contract - 1 year, $1.5 million
Twins Interest? - I wouldn't think so.
Rudy Seanez
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - Relievers can be a funny thing sometimes. Seanez was a journeyman type, just trying to make it from 1989 through 1996. Then he posted two-plus solid seasons with the Braves between 1998 and 2000. Then he was injured and/or pitched poorly in 2002 and 2003. But then he had a resurgence in 2004 and a terrific 2005 with the Padres. But then 2006 was a rough year, split between the Padres and the Red Sox. All together though, the hard throwing 38 year old has put together a very solid career.
2007 Projection - San Diego Padres
Contract - 1 year, $1.25 million.
Twins Interest? - None
Justin Speier
2006 Team - Toronto Blue Jays
Comments - After three solid seasons with the Rockies, Speier went to the Blue Jays with the opportunity to be their closer. He never really took that, but it is interesting to look at his numbers because the last three years of his career have been the best three seasons of his career.
2007 Projection - San Francisco Giants
Contract - 2 years, $6 million
Actual - Angels, 4 years, $18 million
Twins Interest? - If they're going to get anyone, Speier is worth considering, but to make room, they would have to let someone else go, so probably not.
Russ Springer
2006 Team - Houston Astros
Comments - Occasionally there is a relief pitcher that I have not heard of, or heard little of. I knew Springer was with the Astros and had some success, but I did not realize that he is 38 years old and had been in the big leagues since 1992. Although he has had decent strikeout numbers the last couple of years, and his control was much better last year, he is a middle reliever, so he won't fetch a premium.
2007 Projection - Houston Astros
Contract - 1 year, $850,000
Twins Interest? - None.
Tanyon Sturtze
2006 Team - NY Yankees
Comments - Although not a great pitcher, as his 5.21 ERA would attest, he did provide the Yankees with a lot of good outings in 2004 and 2005. Last year, he pitched in 18 games before going on the DL in May with shoulder problems. He has value, but he has never had an ERA under 4.40.
2007 Projection - Texas Rangers
Contract - Minor League.
Actual - Braves, 1 year,
Twins Interest? - none.
David Weathers
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - Weathers began the 2006 as the Reds closer. At 37 years of age, it was his first closers role of his career. He had a 3.54 ERA in 73+ innings, but as a closer, he had 12 saves and seven blown saves... not a good percentage. He would be a good set up man for someone.
2007 Projection - Cincinnati Reds
Contract - 1 year, $1.75 million
Actual - Reds, 2 years,
Twins Interest? - None.
Rick White
2006 Team - Philadelphia Phillies
Comments - White is another one of the under the radar reliever types that you don't realize what he can do until you've done a double-take at the fact that he's played in 10 big league seasons and is 37 years old. He pitched in 64 games last year, 64.2 innings, between the Reds and the Phillies. He went 4-1 despite a 5.15 ERA. He struck out just forty and walked twenty.
2007 Projection - Florida Marlins
Contract - Minor League deal
Twins Interest? - None.
Next week, I will continue my look at free agents with the hitters. Also next week, the major baseball awards will be handed out, and I'm sure they will frustrate us a little.. Please leave any comments below. Thanks!