Friday Night, November 9, 2007
What would it take?
Hey ya’ll, a special edition of SethSpeaks
seems more than necessary. The big talk of the week and of the GM meetings was
certain around trades. It definitely appears that there could be a lot more
trade activity than in past years. Teams all seem to be getting wise to the
fact that signing veterans through free agency is more than a little risky,
especially the big name, big money, long time commitment free agents. The big
name being bantered around in radio and print media is Johan Santana. The Twins
are certainly finding out a lot about what they can acquire for Johan. As I have
mentioned several times before, if I were GM, I would offer him a five year
extension at $101 million. If he doesn’t take it and it appears that he would
like to test the free agent market, then the only intelligent option is to
trade him. Also, his trade value now as compared to next July is far higher. I
would take bids from any team interested in Johan.
However, I think it is also important to note that with or without
Santana, the Twins should be looking to compete not only in 2009 and 2010, but
also in 2008, so the return in any trade of Johan Santana would have to be
significant. In other words, I think that the Twins will receive several great
offers for Santana, but they need to go with the one the blows them away most,
from the team that is willing to help the Twins fill holes in 2008 but fill
even more holes over 2009, 2010 and beyond. We have been over the Twins needs
several times. The big ones are in CF, at 3B and at DH. 2B is another area
worth exploring if they can find a really good hitter. And, in trading Santana,
I would also ask that at least one high-level pitching prospect be included in
the trade. So, then I started thinking about what teams would have interest in
Santana and be willing to give him huge money over the next five to seven
years. The Mets, Angels, Dodgers and Yankees are the names most frequently
mentioned. Which teams have the best mix of prospects and young players to make
a great offer to the Twins? And finally, I would also tell teams that if they
really want Santana, they will also have to take Nick Punto and his salary. The Twins have
plenty of utility infield types.
Well, let’s take a look at a bunch of teams that could deal for
Santana for any number of reasons. I will mention the type of trade offer that
I would need from that team if I were to deal them Johan Santana, baseball’s
best pitcher. I would love to hear your comments, so please e-mail me or leave
comments below. Enjoy, and have a great weekend!
·
Los
Angeles Angels of Anaheim – I believe that they will go hard after Alex
Rodriguez. If they get him, the team is clearly trying to make a statement and
would also have the bats to compete. However, if they do not acquire A-Rod, I
think that they will go even stronger after Santana.
1.
Brandon
Wood – 3B – huge power potential
2.
Howie
Kendrick – 2B – just an incredible all-around hitter.
3.
Reggie
Willits – CF – older young player (if that makes sense), but his on-base
skills and speed are impressive.
4.
Nick
Adenhart – P – probably a year
or two away, but he has tremendous upside
No
way the Angels would give up this much for Santana,
but then again, I said I needed to be blown away, and this is where I would
start negotiations. This trade would answer all of the Twins needs in a trade,
plus the players would not be eligible for free agency for at least five years.
·
New
York Mets – The Mets need pitching. They likely will lose Tom Glavine, and who knows what Pedro Martinez or El Duque will do. The
team needs pitching, and why not go after the best
pitcher in the game? A-Rod is another option here.
1.
Jose
Reyes – The Mets shortstop is already signed to a very fair long term
deal. His speed on the Metrodome’s turf would be something
to watch. Jason Bartlett could move
to 2B.
2.
Mike
Pelfrey or Philip Humber – a pitcher in return.
3.
Carlos
Gomez or Lastings Milledge –
Five-Tool prospects that are pretty much ready to take over CF.
Again,
this is a starting point. The Mets would certainly balk at anything more than
Reyes, but the Twins might as well ask. A-Rod could move back to SS. The Mets
could then let go of a pitching prospect. And they still have their outfield
set.
·
Los
Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers now have Joe Torre and like the
GM, Ned Colleti,
he is a fan of veterans.
1.
Matt
Kemp – The talents former hoops star is the guy who can take over CF,
hit for power and run.
2.
Andy
LaRoche – He has good power. He’s
probably ready for the big leagues now.
3.
Clayton
Kershaw – Baseball’s top pitching prospect, the 19 year old lefty ended
his 2007 season in AA.
4.
Jonathan
Broxton – Power arm in the bullpen, Broxton is huge and will fully
solidify the Twins bullpen again. If the Twins lose Joe Nathan, Broxton, Neshek, Crain or Guerrier could all close.
A
king’s ransom but again, I’d rather ask for too much than not enough. This deal
fills two needs and strengthens an already strong bullpen.
·
Boston
Red Sox – They already have Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka,
Wakefield, Lester and others ready to start, but getting the top pitcher (and
keeping him from the Yankees) makes them mentionable.
1.
Jacoby
Ellsbury – Red Sox starter
already in the NLCS after being called up late in the season.
2.
Clay
Buccholz – He threw a no-hitter
in just his second big league start. Could be an ace.
This
isn’t happening. There is no way that the Red Sox would deal both of these
guys. But the Twins need to find out.
·
New
York Yankees – They actually really want Santana (for
themselves, not just so that the Red Sox don’t get him). They are at a
crossroads as an organization. GM Brian Cashman did a
great job of keeping his young players at the deadline this year. However, we
are now talking about baseball’s best pitcher, a near sure-thing. I’m sure he
would much rather trade a top prospect for Santana than for some random veteran
last July. So, they need to be in the discussion.
1.
Robinson
Cano – After a slow start, Cano seems legit. Average and power. Not
bad with the glove. He’s still about four years from free agency, but he could
get somewhat expensive in arbitration already.
2.
Phil
Hughes or Joba Chamberlain – understanding that
getting both is just not an option, I would still insist on at least one of
them.
3.
Ian
Kennedy – Not as highly rated as the above two, Kennedy was incredible in
2007 at four levels.
I
think that the Yankees will be real players in the Santana Sweepstakes, should
there be one. It doesn’t hurt to ask for the moon. You just never know.
·
Seattle
Mariners – You have to mention a dark horse, right? The Mariners might be
that team. They have money and they have some talent!
1.
Adrian
Beltre – Is he overpaid and
overrated? Probably. But his Gold Glove selection was legitimate. He has had
the one monster season, but if the M’s were willing to eat some of his salary
(or take Punto and Dennys Reyes), it wouldn’t be so bad.
2.
Adam
Jones – Not Pacman! Probably don’t need to
say that, but I feel I should. Power, speed, great CF defense. He is more than
ready, but Jose Guillen
is already gone and Raul Ibanez may
be next.
3.
Jeff
Clement – The Twins drafted him before he went to USC. He’s a catcher. He
could be the #3 catcher, but he could also be the nearly every day DH. The man
can hit and hit for power.
4.
Brandon
Morrow – The 2006 1st round pick spent the season in the M’s
bullpen. He is another bullpen guy with future closer written all over him.
Probably not for each of those last three, but again, at least
worth having the discussion.
·
Tampa
Bay Rays – Completely unlikely as they are a team that usually looks to
unload salary. However, they definitely have the talent to acquire Santana.
1.
BJ
Upton – He’s not available, they’re saying, but in the right deal, who
knows?
2.
Evan
Longoria – I always laugh at posters/commenters
on other blogs who seem to think that Longoria is available. He’s not, but
again, special circumstances…
This
isn’t happening, so it’s not worth putting too much thought into it. Other
names that are worth asking about would be Delmon Young and Scott Kazmir.
So, there are seven teams that could have the
players to acquire Johan Santana. I
could add the Diamondbacks or Rockies or even the Brewers to the list, but they
each seem even more unlikely. The reality is that if Santana is traded, it
would be to a team that would be able to sign him to a long-term deal. That
actually means probably the first six teams I mention could all be in the hunt,
could all put in their bids for Santana. They could build up strong offers.
Will any of them offer the Twins a deal that they simply can not refuse? For
the Twins long-term good, we can only hope so. If not, Twins fans need to enjoy
Santana’s 2008 season and hope that he is willing to resign with the team!
Any thoughts?