Thursday, November 9, 2006
Free Agents: The Lefty Relievers
Hello All! The Hot Stove is just starting to heat up. Yesterday, the Padres named Bud Black their new manager and also traded the talented Josh Barfield to the Indians for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and a reliever. So, the rumor mill tells us that the Padres next move will be a deal to acquire 2B Marcus Giles, teaming him with his brother Brian Giles. That is only the beginning!
Over the next couple of days, I would like to go through the free agent list and predict where the players may go and for how much. Yesterday, I started this by looking at the free agent starting pitchers. Like any prediction or projection, it is a glorified guess, but I would like to put my guesses out there and compare my lists to the "experts" picks and see how I do. My information comes from things I've read or heard, but mainly it is just me, trying to think like a GM and trying to place players with teams that make sense. I'd love to hear your thoughts on any of them, so let's get some Comments going.
Today, I will discuss more pitchers. 40 relievers who have signed up for free agency so far, and 14 of them are left-handed (note- they have until Saturday to do so). I am going to name the players, their former team, a couple of comments on them, my projection for where they will end up and for the contract they could receive. Finally, I will tie this into the Twins, since this is a Twins blog, and discuss if that player makes any sense for the team. I believe that the Twins should go after one lefty reliever just as insurance in case Dennys Reyes turns back into Dennys Reyes. Let's get it started:
Left-Handed Relief Pitchers (14)
Alan Embree
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - After posting ERAs of over 7.50 for both the Red Sox and the Yankees in 2005, Embree came back with a very solid 2006 season. In 73 games, he threw 52.1 innings. He struck out 53 and walked just 15. He was 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.24. Lefties hit just .240/.288/.337 against him last year.
2007 Projection - Minnesota Twins
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - I absolutely think that they should try to acquire him for this type of money.
Aaron Fultz
2006 Team - Philadelphia Phillies
Comments - The former Twins reliever pitched 71.1 innings in 66 relief appearances for the Phillies. He was 3-1 with a 4.54 ERA. While lefties did hit .277 against him in 2006, they managed just a .668 OPS. All seven of his homers allowed came against righties.
2007 Projection - St. Louis Cardinals
Contract - 1 year, $1.2 million.
Actual - Indians, 1 year, $1.65, with option
Twins Interest? - I don't think that they would bring him back.
Eddie Guardado
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - Elbow surgery in late August likely will keep Guardado from pitching Every day! He started 2006 in Seattle, but in July, he was dealt to the Reds. He was 8 of 10 in save conversions in his short time with the Reds after losing his closer job in Seattle to JJ Putz. Although righties hit for an impressive 1.029 OPS against him last year, lefties posted just a .621 OPS against Eddie.
2007 Projection - Chicago Cubs
Contract - $750,000 for 2007, with a $2 million option for 2008.
Twins Interest? - I think it would be a good signing for the Twins. They could ease Eddie back and hopefully reap the benefits of a healthy Guardado late in the year.
Ray King
2006 Team - Colorado Rockies
Comments - I've always liked Ray King, and a couple of years ago, I would have advocated the Twins going after him. He spent last year putting up league average numbers in Colorado. He is a solid lefty. However, he really only faces lefties, and he only strikes out about one every other inning, not a great number. He also walks way too many hitters.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - 1 year, $2.5 million
Twins Interest? - Probably very little. Definitely not at that money.
Steve Kline
2006 Team - San Francisco Giants
Comments - 34 year old Kline threw in 52.1 innings in 72 games for the Giants. He went 4-3 with a 3.66 ERA. However, he struck out just 33 and walked 26. Those are not good numbers and certainly not worth the $3 million he made in 2006. He did pitch quite a bit better against lefties than righties.
2007 Projection - San Diego Padres
Contract - 1 year, $1.5 million.
Twins Interest? - Hopefully not at this point.
Tom Martin
2006 Team - Colorado Rockies
Comments - Another 36 year old lefty with an ERA over 5.00 in 2006, Martin has been in the big leagues for the past nine seasons. Of course that was in Colorado and he only allowed four homers. Last year, left-handers hit better than right-handers against him. Then I looked and that is true for the past three years too.
2007 Projection - Washington Nationals
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - They probably shouldn't be.
Kent Mercker
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - Another lefty who has been around forever. Mercker is now 38 years old and has been in the big leagues since the Braves called him up in 1989. Like Guardado, Mercker's season came to an end last August when he needed elbow surgery. Over the past three years, righties and lefties have hit him about the same. In limited innings last year, lefties far out-produced righties against Mercker.
2007 Projection - Rehabbing much of the year
Contract - One year, $750,000 with incentives
Twins Interest? - None.
Darren Oliver
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - Oliver is 36 years old and you can't help but wonder how he has stayed in the big leagues from 1993 through 2004. He hadn't had an ERA under 4.2 since 1997. He was so bad that in 2005, he pitched in seven total games between the Cubs and Diamondbacks AAA affiliates, and was cut by each for pitching so poorly. And then the Mets signed him before the 2006 season and put him in the bullpen. He pitched 81 innings in 41 games and was 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA. Add in his six shutout inning performance in the World Series, and Oliver may have earned a one year Major League contract for 2007.
2007 Projection - NY Mets
Contract - 1 year, $1.2 million
Twins Interest? - None.
Arthur Rhodes
2006 Team - Philadelphia Phillies
Comments - It was a rough season for Rhodes. In 55 appearances, he went 45.1 innings. He struck out an impressive 48 hitters, but he walked an uncharacteristically high 30 hitters. It's not like he's been Greg Maddux throughout his career, but he walked too many last year. If he can pitch with better control, he could come back with a strong 2007 season. Last year, lefties also out-hit righties against him.
2007 Projection - Philadelphia Phillies
Contract - 1 year, $1.8 million
Twins Interest? - Probably not at the money and with the control issues, although I'm sure they think he is better than that too.
JC Romero
2006 Team - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Comments - The Twins got Alexi Casilla for Romero last winter. Terry Ryan and his scouts are good. JC Romero... is not! He was amazing in 2002, and he has not been good since then. With the Angels, he went 1-2 with a 6.70 ERA and they didn't pick up his 2007 option. Righties throttled him to the tune of a 1.013 OPS. Lefties, on the other hand, did very little against him, posting a .633 OPS. If used correctly, he could really help a team. He is still just 30, but four straight bad years does say a lot.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - Minor League deal
Twins Interest? - Not likely! At all!
Scott Schoenweiss
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - The 33 year old Schoenweiss has always believed he was a starter. However, he's not good enough to be a big league starter, but he is left-handed, so there is a job for him in a bullpen. After posting a 6.51 ERA in 55 appearances with the Blue Jays (37.1 innings), he was dealt to the Reds where he gave up just one run in 14.1 innings. Lefties hit just .236/.333/.292 against him.
2007 Projection - Cincinnati Reds
Contract - 1 year, $2.25 million
Twins Interest? - Hopefully none, at least not at that dollar value.
Mike Stanton
2006 Team - San Francisco Giants
Comments - Stanton is 39 years old and has been around for a long time. In 2006, he went 7-7 with eight saves and a 3.99 ERA. He pitched 67.2 innings in 82 games between the Nationals and Giants.
2007 Projection - Houston Astros
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Actual - Reds, 2 years, $5.5 million
Twins Interest? - I really don't think so.
Ron Villone
2006 Team - NY Yankees
Comments - 11 teams in 12 big league seasons for the 36 year old Villone. I wish I was a lefty! He went 3-3 with a 5.04 ERA for the Yankees in 2006. Lefties hit .189/.281/.330. Of the 121 lefties that he faced, Villone struck out an impressive 37 of them.
2007 Projection - Los Angeles Angels
Contract - 1 year, $2 million
Twins Interest? - Wouldn't it be fun to bring Villone and Justin Morneau together? I just don't see it happening.
Jamie Walker
2006 Team - Detroit Tigers
Comments - I never would have guessed that Jamie Walker was 35 years old. Obviously Twins fans have seen quite a bit of him in the last four or five years and had mixed results. Like the Tigers, he was not good a few years ago, and in 2006, he put together a very solid season. Last year, left-handers hit .238/.265/.438 against him. The .728 OPS against was slightly better than the .734 that righties put up against him.
2007 Projection - Detroit Tigers
Contract - 1 year, $1.5 million
Actual - Orioles, 3 years, $12 million
Twins Interest? - Probably not a lot of interest.
That's it for today. Hopefully you found something interesting again today! Please stop back tomorrow.