Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Offseason Blueprint

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants on their World Series championship. If a team ever epitomized "The Playoffs", it was the Giants. "Pitching Wins" was proven in the World Series this year. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner showed how great pitching can shut down any offense. The Giants offense was a mix-match of veterans with something to prove. Think about this. At what position would you trade the Twins starter for the Giants starter? But in the small sample size of the playoffs, a guy like Edgar Renteria can play hero despite doing nothing for two years. And the Giants had a bunch of heroes. Guys like Bumgarner, Cody Ross, Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff and former Rochester Red Wing Andres Torres all had their moments in the Giants run. Of course, they also got great performances from the few stars that they have. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain set the tone with tremendous starts in the playoffs. The team's lone offensive star, catcher Buster Posey had a lot of big hits too. And top closer Brian Wilson did a tremendous job as always closing out games.

Congratulations to the World Champion San Francisco Giants, but if ever someone needed an example of how once in the playoffs, anything can and does happen!

But with the completion of the World Series, it marks the beginning of the offseason. It is now that things start happening. Within the next five days, eligible players will need to file for free agency. That includes six-year minor league free agents like Twins relief prospect Kyle Waldrop who will need to be added to the 40 man roster within the next five days or he would become a free agent.

And then by November 20th, the Twins will also need to determine who else will go on their 40 man roster. Remember it was just days after the World Series concluded last year that the Twins and Brewers completed the JJ Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade. The Twins have 40 man roster decisions, free agents, arbitration-eligibles, and many other decisions on potential trade targets or free agents from other organizations.

The Twins front office has a lot of decisions to make, and it can be a little overwhelming. So TwinsCentric is here to help you out. With the completion of the World Series and the onset of the offseason, we are proud to announce that the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is now available by going to www.TwinsCentric.com. The electronic book walks you through all of these decisions and more. It's a one-spot stop for the biggest of Twins fans.

In the GM Handbook, the four of us each put together a hypothetical blue print of what we would do if we were the Twins GM. Obviously our ideas will be forgotten, and Bill Smith will have to live with his decisions (good or bad), but the exercise illustrates just how much information needs to be considered. You may ask, "Why would they show their blue print? Isn't that the key of the book?"

Well, in reality, the blueprints are the culmination of all of the rest of the book, but the meat and potatoes of the book are all of the content to help you through the offseason of decisions. In the end, you can put together your own blueprint and then be sure to come to this site throughout the offseason to keep updated on what the Twins actually do.

With that, I submit my blue print for your consideration, mocking and ridicule:

West Coast Help

by SETH STOHS

 

1) Add David Bromberg, Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Rene Tosoni, Kyle Waldrop, Tyler Robertson, and Steve Singleton to the 40 man roster.

 

2.) Let free agents Orlando Hudson, Brian Fuentes, Nick Punto, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Randy Flores leave.

 

3) Reach arbitration agreements with JJ Hardy ($6.5M), Delmon Young ($5.25M), Kevin Slowey ($2.75M), Alexi Casilla ($800K), Pat Neshek ($800K) and Jason Repko ($750K).

For just below $17 million, you secure your starting middle infielders, your run-producing right-handed bat, a solid starting pitcher, a reliever and an excellent defensive fourth outfielder.

 

4) Offer Carl Pavano arbitration.

Although certainly not a given, Pavano will likely decline it, hoping that he can turn back-to-back 200+ inning seasons into a multi-year contract. Since Pavano is a Type A free agent, you’ll get draft pick compensation when he signs elsewhere.

 

5) Sign Francisco Liriano to four-year, $40 million extension.

Liriano is entering his second season of arbitration eligibility and our estimates have him getting $4.5M. Liriano has ace potential and it showed again during a strong 2010 season. Let me submit to you the following chart for your consideration:

 

Zack Greinke

 

Josh Johnson

 

Francisco Liriano

ARB 1 (08)

1.4M

 

ARB 1 (09)

1.4M

 

ARB 1 (10)

1.6M

2009

3.75M

 

2010

3.75M

 

2011

4M

2010

7.25M

 

2011

7.75M

 

2012

8M

2011

13.5M

 

2012

13.75M

 

2013

14M

2012

13.5M

 

2013

13.75M

 

2014

14M

 

Yes, there is risk with Liriano physically. But Josh Johnson also had Tommy John surgery, and Greinke’s battle with depression early in his career is certainly noteworthy in this discussion of risk. Liriano returned to his 2006 form in 2010, and he is primed for a breakout 2011 season. All three of these pitchers will be 27 years old throughout the season.

 

6) Re-sign Jesse Crain for three years, $10.5 million.

In May, most of Twins Nation was ready to ship Crain off. At the time, he was a “Crain Wreck.” He has one of the best fastball velocities in baseball, but when he started throwing his slider consistently for strikes and relying upon it, he became one of baseball’s best relievers. The Twins will be losing a lot out of their bullpen and despite many good arms at Triple-A, the team does need to have a veteran presence as well. Crain seems to have figured things out, and is in line for the second three-year contract of his career.

 

7) Trade outfielder Jason Kubel, shortstop Trevor Plouffe and pitchers Kevin Slowey and Anthony Slama to Giants for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez and lefty reliever Javier Lopez.

We saw in the playoffs that the top teams have not just one but two, and often three, “Ace” types of pitchers. You have to give up something to get something, and in this proposed trade, the Twins would be giving up a power-hitting left-handed bat in Kubel (who could find McCovey Cove to be a fun target). They would also give up Kevin Slowey who, despite few quality starts, has found a way to win games and be a solid starting pitcher in his brief career. The Giants could lose both Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria in the offseason, so they could be interested in Plouffe. Bullpen is important, and Slama could do well with the Giants. Javier Lopez has been a good, but not spectacular, lefty reliever for quite some time. He was terrific in his brief stint with the Giants and is just shy of free agency meaning he would have one more year of arbitration-eligibility.

 

Clearly Sanchez is the key component to this trade. Always talented, Sanchez has been an enigma to the Giants throughout his career. He’s always had no-hit stuff, and in 2010, he did throw a no-hitter. Over his previous two seasons, Sanchez went 17-24 with ERAs of 5.01 (2008) and 4.24 (2009). However, left-handed pitching wins, and power arms with the ability to get strikeouts dominate. Sanchez knows how to miss bats. In 193.1 innings in 2010, he struck out 205 batters. In just over 600 career innings, he has a strikeout rate of 9.4 per nine innings. Even in his breakout 2010 season (during which he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA), he led the National league in walks in 96. He made $2.1 million in 2010, his first year of arbitration. I would try to extend him to a three-year, $26 million deal in which he made $5 million in 2011, $9 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, and have an option for 2014 at $13 million with a $1 million buyout.

 

8) Tender a contract to reliever Matt Capps, and then trade him and pitchers Kane Holbrooks and Anthony Swarzak to the Dodgers for reliever Kenley Jansen and shortstop Ivan DeJesus, Jr. (Or Matt Capps and a pitching prospect for Kenley Jansen.)

Matt Capps came to the Twins at the July trade deadline and did a nice job in the role of Twins closer. He was scary, but he succeeded. Scarier is the idea that he could make $8 million in his final year of arbitration. The Twins had to tender him a contract because the idea of giving up a catching prospect of the caliber of Wilson Ramos for a two-month rental is not fun. Can Capps be traded? How many teams need a closer? The Dodgers have Jonathan Broxton who was an All-Star but ended up losing the closer role to Hong-Chih Kuo who dominated left-handed batters but isn’t really the closer type either. The Dodgers may be a team interested in taking a proven closer. If the Twins send a couple more pitching prospects in the deal, could they get back a couple of very good prospects in Jansen and DeJesus?

 

DeJesus may be the Dodgers second baseman to start the 2011 season, so he may not be available. If not, I would still trade Capps for Jansen straight-up. We talk about the Twins acquiring power arms a lot. Well, Jansen is a power arm, capable of touching triple digits. He is a work in progress. You may recall that he made his name as the strong-armed catcher of Team Netherlands in the 2009 WBC. He couldn’t hit, so the Dodgers converted him to a pitcher, and he made the transition last spring. He was with the Dodgers by the end of July and pitched in 25 games. He was 1-0 with four saves. He posted an ERA of just 0.67 and a WHIP of 1.00. In 27 innings, he walked 15, but he struck out 41. 

 

9) Sign Lance Berkman for one year, $6 million.

I would love for the Twins to bring Jim Thome back. He was great on the field and provided power to the Twins lineup. He was great in the clubhouse, as a mentor to young players. In 2011, he will be chasing his 600th career home run. But in some ways, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen was right. Thome is very one-dimensional. He provides nothing defensively and no speed. He really struggles against most left-handed pitchers. Now, Berkman is certainly not a great hitter against lefties either, but with Kubel and Thome off the roster, Berkman becomes the Twins regular DH and will get many more right-handed at bats. After posting OPS+ of 130 or greater every season since his 34 game debut in 1999, Berkman struggled in 2010 and was traded by his hometown team to the Yankees. His struggles resulted in an OPS+ of 114, still well above average, but not to the expectations of Berkman. At 35, it is possible that Berkman could be happy to get a one-year, make-good contract and prove that he is not done. With the Twins, he could play daily, even spelling Justin Morneau at 1B or one of the corner outfielders occasionally. All reports would indicate that Berkman would fit well in the Twins clubhouse as well.

 

2011 Opening Day 25-Man Roster

 

STARTING LINEUP

 

C: Joe Mauer ($23M)

1B: Justin Morneau ($14M)

2B: Alexi Casilla ($800K)

3B: Danny Valencia ($450K)

SS: JJ Hardy ($6.5M)

LF: Delmon Young ($5.25M)

CF: Denard Span ($1M)

RF: Michael Cuddyer ($10.5M)

DH: Lance Berkman ($6M)

 

(Approx $67.5M)

 

BENCH

 

C: Drew Butera ($450K)

IF: Matt Tolbert ($450K)

IF: Luke Hughes ($420K)

OF: Jason Repko ($750K)

(Remember, also paying Brendan Harris $1.75M for 2011.)

 

(Approx $3.82M)

 

ROTATION

 

SP: Francisco Liriano ($4M)

SP: Jonathan Sanchez ($5M)

SP: Brian Duensing ($450K)

SP: Scott Baker ($5M)

SP: Nick Blackburn ($3M)

 

(Approx $17.45M)

 

BULLPEN

 

CL: Joe Nathan ($12.5M)

RP: Jesse Crain ($3M)

RP: Javier Lopez ($1.5M)

RP: Pat Neshek ($800K)

RP: Jose Mijares ($450K)

RP: Kenley Jansen ($450K)

RP: Jeff Manship ($450K)

 

(Approx $19.15M)

 

TOTAL 2011 PAYROLL: $108M

 

SUMMARY:

My proposed lineup would change very little from the one that last year finished fourth in the league in runs scored. A healthy Justin Morneau will help, of course. The losses would be Thome and Orlando Hudson with Alexi Casilla taking over at 2B and Berkman at DH. I would like to see Casilla win a second base competition in the spring with the likes of Luke Hughes and Steve Singleton. If not, those guys could contribute as well. There was a little effort to make the Twins a bit less left-handed dominant, although only minimally.

 

In the starting rotation, Pavano would be gone, but he would be replaced by the immensely talented Jonathan Sanchez. Between Sanchez and Liriano, they have two pitchers with ace potential. But the season really relies on Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn being solid, and consistent (!), contributors throughout the season.

 

There is risk in the bullpen when you lose so many veterans, especially not knowing what to expect from Joe Nathan. I do think it is important to add some quality power arms to the mix though, and we’ve done that.

And we’ve done that for just shy of $110 million, which 1) seems like a realistic payroll number to start the season, and 2) hopefully allows the front office some wiggle room to again make moves as needed throughout the season.

What do you think? This was written 2-3 weeks ago. So, I’m sure some might change, and obviously there is no right or wrong answer, but I would love your thoughts, and your opinions. Leave your comments here. And again, if you’re interested in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, click here for much more information.

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