Wednesday, October 24, 2007

World Series Predictions

Good Morning! Welcome to World Series week! The playoffs take a long time, but it is certainly exciting to have the World Series here! It will pit a team with plenty of postseason experience and success and big names against a team that has lost one time in its past 23 games. They are a youthful team that is running a hot streak. However, they are also an incredibly talented team, so in saying that they are hot, that is not to take away from just how good of a baseball team the Colorado Rockies are.

Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies

	Red Sox	Score	Rockies	Thoughts
C	Jason Varitek	=	Yorvit Torrealba	Varitek’s advantage is that he has been there before. That is the case in all the way down this list, but I’ll take talent over history. As you know, I think that Varitek is incredibly overrated, and Torrealba has been around awhile and has had some key hits for the Rockies.
1B	Kevin Youklis/David Ortiz	=	Todd Helton	Youk is hot right now. Helton, after all those years of mashing, made his first post season and you know that he has to be up for this especially after an offseason in which he was nearly dealt to the Red Sox. The questions for the Red Sox start when the teams head to Colorado and can’t use the DH. Does Ortiz play 1B? If so, do you hit Youklis, who hit about .900 in the ALCS?
2B	Dustin Pedroia	>	Kaz Matsui	Pedroia is the easy choice for rookie of the year. He has tremendous extra base pop for such a little guy, but he really does a nice job at the top of the lineup. Matsui is really a solid player, much better than what Mets fans saw for a few years, and he has done well.
3B	Mike Lowell/Kevin Youklis	=	Garrett Atkins	Youklis could just move to 3B with Ortiz at 1B, but you hate to take such a professional hitter as Mike Lowell out of the lineup. Also, the defense is much lower without Lowell at the hot corner. Twins fans know of Atkins from a distance because of occasional trade rumors at midseason. He got off to a very slow start this year but came on late. He is a very good hitter.
SS	Julio Lugo	<<	Troy Tulowitski	Offensively, there is little comparison. Tulo can flat out hit. Fortunately for the Sox, Lugo at least plays a solid defense. However, Tulo has a huge advantage there as well. He is just tremendous defensively.
LF	Manny Ramirez	=	Matt Holliday	I said previously that there are not many hitters in baseball who would get an equal sign with Matt Holliday, Manny is one of them. Like him or not (I would be in the “not” category), he can flat out hit. Neither is stellar defensively, but oh well.
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury/Coco Crisp	=	Willy Taveras	Ellsbury has taken over CF for Crisp, with Crisp coming in late for defensive purposed and Ellsbury moving to LF. Offensively, Ellsbury is going to be a star, Crisp is struggling. Taveras’ return to the Rockies lineup was controversial, but his speed can alter the course of games offensively and defensively.
RF	JD Drew/Bobby Kielty	=	Brad Hawpe	Hawpe would fit into the Red Sox lineup nicely. Drew finally came up big in Game 5, but Kielty gets to play against lefties, and the Rockies have two in their rotation and three in their bullpen.
DH	David Ortiz	>>	Seth Smith/Jeff Baker	Clearly an advantage for the Red Sox with Big Papi, even if he is less than 100% The Rockies, of course, have plenty of options. They could put Atkins at DH and play Jamey Carroll at 3B. But no matter the scenario, the Rockies option will mean one player will not be as good as Ortiz.
G1 SP	Josh Beckett	>	Jeff Francis	Francis has come up big in the playoffs. The Canadian southpaw has been good for awhile, but Josh Beckett does have a certain air about him come playoff time and he has come through again this year in each of his starts.
G2 SP	Curt Schilling	=	Ubaldo Jimenez	Stuff-wise, this one isn’t even close. Jimenez is far better. But like him or not, Schilling is smart. He gets how to pitch. The mental part of the game is what makes this an even matchup.
G3 SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	>	Josh Fogg	His contract and the money the Red Sox gave Seibu just to talk to Matsuzaka make him a target. Don’t forget, although he’s 26, he is still a rookie and in his first full big league season. Yes, he struggled down the stretch, but he can pitch, and he understands the big stage. Fogg is a journeyman starter who is just solid.
G4 SP	Jon Lester	=	Aaron Cook	Lester is a tremendous story, coming back from cancer. But he is also a tremendous, and young, pitcher. He pitched well in relief in the ALCS and with Wakefield off the postseason roster, Lester gets the start. Cook hasn’t pitched for the last three months due to injury, but he has been activated and will start Game 4 for the Rockies.
G5 SP	Josh Beckett	>	Jeff Francis
	Curt Schilling	=	Ubaldo Jimenez
	Daisuke Matsuzaka	=	Josh Fogg
Bullpen	Okajima/Gagne/Timlin	<<	Fuentes/Herges/Hawkins	The Red Sox bullpen has been exploited. Okajima is fine, but Gagne is now a non-factor. The three Rockies that I mention here are all excellent veterans, and you can add Jeremy Affeldt and the incredibly talented and dominating Franklyn Morales to this list. This isn’t even close.
Closer	Jonathan Papelbon	>	Manny Corpas	Corpas has been incredible since taking the closer’s role from Fuentes. However, Papelbon is the definition of a closer. His stuff and mentality are perfect for the job!
	7	Boston by 3	4

Summary/Prediction

This is going to be a very interesting series on so many levels. Clearly the Red Sox have the advantage of experience at many positions, but they also have Pedroia, Ellsbury, Matsuzaka, Okajima and Lester in key roles, and they were all rookies in 2007. Boston has an advantage in starting pitching, but if the strong Rockies offense can keep the game close and get to the Red Sox bullpen, that would be huge. And yes, as good as Manny and Papi are, the Rockies lineup is also very strong and can score a lot of runs. I just hope that it is a fun series to watch. I would love to see Helton and the Rockies win the championship, but I think that Mr. Curt Schilling will be strong and give the Red Sox a Game 6 win at Fenway Park to end the series and give the Red Sox another World Series championship. So there you have it, Red Sox in six games. Can the Rockies keep their hot streak going in the cold weather? Who will come up big? . What do you think?

Here are what a couple of others think will happen:

ELI TINTOR – Twins minor league outfielder:

The Rockies are taking it with Holliday being the MVP....they are either gonna sweep them or if not its going to go down to all 7 games.

HOWARD SINKER – Strib Blogger – A Fan’s View from Section 212:

Boston in 6 -- and I don't want to hear anything about the eight-day layoff as an excuse for the Rockies. The Red Sox are simply the better team and I don't think the world is ready for a Series winner from Colorado. Besides, have you heard Troy Tulowhatever give an interview? He makes Justin Morneau sound like David Letterman. I hope that at least one game is called because of snow.

JOHN BONNES – The Twins Geek and Editor for Gameday Magazine:

I'll go with the Rockies in seven, though I'm not sure if that's my heart or my head talking.  Head says that the pitching matchups say two wins for each team and three undecided, with maybe a slight edge to the Red Sox.  But my heart likes the Rockies, and sure would like to see a long, compelling series. 

Stuff I want to see?  I want to see Wakefield's knuckleball try to dance in Coors.  I want to see Todd Helton play on the biggest stage in Fenway.  But mostly I want to watch some good teams play a competive series without being so invested in either of them.  Frankly, I'd like to spend a playoff series enjoying each game instead of fidgeting on the sofa like Leo Mazzone on crank.  That would be nice.

WES HOLTSCLAW – editor of the Elizabethton Star:

I've always been a firm believer that overall, there's much more talent in the top tier American League squads than there is the National League teams. The Red Sox has spent the money to get where they are at and based on their talent -- particularly the sharp Josh Beckett and the hitting of Ortiz, Manny Ramirez -- I'll say they win in five games. With that said, I will not be rooting for them. I hope the Rockies can continue their run and pull the shocker this fall. I think it would be great for baseball.

"A fun historical fact about our town (Elizabethton): Two Rockies have played on our local diamond, Joe O'Brien Field, where the E-Twins play each summer. In 1991, after a good start in the GCL (3-2, 3,25 ERA, 35 K), current Rockies reliver and former Twin LaTroy Hawkins pitched five games in Cowtown (0-1, 3.33, 36 K) and worked his way up to the parent club. More recently, he was given a second chance in Colorado and I hope he shines this series. The other, Todd Helton, a former University of Tennessee standout. In 1994, Todd had perhaps one of his best individual college performances at Joe O'Brien Field when East Tennessee State hosted the Vols in E-Town. Helton picked up the win from the mound, throwing near flawless ball, and crushed two home runs and a double with a plethora of RBI. The following fall the two-sports standout was the starting quarterback for Tennessee against Arkansas when he got hurt, then Peyton Manning took the field and you know the rest. Todd bounced back from the football injury, returned his attention to the diamond and was the Collegiate Player of the Year in 1995, and has been a staple in Colorado ever since. Remember last offseason when there were rumors of a trade between Colorado and Boston for Helton? Funny how it worked out. Either way he would have played in the Series. I hope he has a great series.

JOSH JOHNSON – Josh’s Thoughts:

The Boston Red Sox have a ton of momentum after being down 3 games to 1 to advance to the World Series. The Colorado Rockies also have a lot of momentum after going 7-0 in the playoffs and winning 21 of the last 22 games. The Rockies have ridden very strong starting pitching thus far, and I expect that to continue. Although, I think that the long lay off will end up hurting them a little bit and the Boston Red Sox will continue their success and beat the Colorado Rockies. I will add, that I do hope the Rockies win, but I just can't count out the Red Sox.

I believe that the Boston Red Sox will win the series in 6 games.

Impact Players: Colorado Rockies
Troy Tulowitzki -  He's young, but has had a lot of success so far in the post season, he's a very good defender and they need him to be strong in this series.
Jeff Francis - He's scheduled to start game 1 against Josh Beckett at Fenway on Wednesday. If he can pitch a gem and give the Rockies a 1-0 lead, the Rockies will definitely have the upper hand for the remainder of the series.

Impact Players: Boston Red Sox
David Ortiz - Big Papi is an October monster. The Red Sox will need him to beat up on the Rockies young pitchers.
Dustin Pedroia - The rookie 2nd baseman came on very strong in the ALCS, the teams success seems to hinder on how well he does at the leadoff spot. If he can get on, they'll likely drive him in.

STICK & BALL GUY:

The Red Sox have been at or near the top of the American League for the entire season. They have Beckett, Schilling, and Dice-K. They have Manny and Papi. They are the better team and they proved that by winning a half dozen more games in the far more competitive American League.

The Rockies were nowhere until the middle of September and then they went nuclear. They're hotter than Gleeman's fantasy girls, or they were until they got stuck in the humidor for a week following their demolition of the D-Backs and Phillies. They'll rely on some young pitchers, Tulowitski at short and the (by comparison) venerable Todd Helton. They aren't as good as the Red Sox, but no one's beat 'em in a month.

I have no idea who will win, but I'm betting it's one of these two teams in somewhere between four and seven games. Have you heard that the playoffs are a crapshoot?

What, you say? There's a gun pointed to my head? Okay, Red Sox in six.

CHRIS BROWN – Former Twins Farmhand:

I'm going to have to go with the Sox in 5. Too much firepower and too much experience in the middle of the order. Manny and Beckett are the guys to watch but Youklis and Pedroia got real hot at the end of the ALCS and should carry over to the World Series. TheRockies have had 8 days off and that is never a good thing. I feel generous giving them a win but you never know what you are going to get out of Dice K.

Feel free to tell me your thoughts or predictions? Please e-mail me!! Enjoy the Series!

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