Friday, October 19, 2007

Friday Notes

And WEEK 7 PICKS

Happy Friday everyone! Still no internet connection on my home computer so here we are. But, the football picks must continue. Here are just a few other thoughts for you today:

· Josh Beckett got another win last night for the Red Sox to take the series back to Boston for Game 6 and maybe Game 7. So, is Beckett “Clutch” in the playoffs, or is he just a really good pitcher pitching really well? Is CC Sabathia a “Choker”, or is he just a really good pitcher pitching really poorly right now?

· So, I was flipping channels and on ESPN2, there was Jeremy Schaap. He was breaking into their regular coverage to say that the Yankees were having a press teleconference, likely to announce that the team had resigned Joe Torre to an extension. The teleconference starts and we hear that the team has offered Torre a one year deal, with an option. In 2008, he would make a base salary of $5 million with million dollar bonuses for 1.) getting to the playoffs, 2.) getting to the ALCS and 3.) getting to the World Series. If he made the $8 million, the Yankees would be in the World Series and Torre’s option for 2008 would automatically be picked up. The voice continued with something like, “That was our offer. Joe Torre rejected it and now the Yankees must move ahead with their plans for the future.” I just stopped, wondering what I had heard. I bet Jeremy Schaap and others at ESPN were also in shock, uncertain of what to do. The ‘Breaking News’ notice on the bottom of the screen quickly disappeared and soon after, it had changed. It was an interesting turn of events.

· I felt bad for Joe Torre and again am very thankful that I am a Twins fan. I’ve said it before, but I am happy to be cheering for a team where getting to the playoffs brings excitement and a World Series championship is a treat, not an expectation. The fact remains, what you do during the regular season simply does not matter once you get in the playoffs. It’s all about luck and timing. They Yankees had their run in the late ‘90s and they kept getting to the playoffs. Some of those seasons, they had put together the best team, but things didn’t work out in the playoffs. The last couple of years, they have still made the playoffs even though their teams were weaker. But once in the playoffs, they had the same 12.5% chance of winning the World Series as the other seven participants. Torre had the right demeanor and the respect of his team. He is what made it work. It is not his fault he was given such a group of over-priced used-to-be’s, and injuries and age derailed an already weak pitching staff. He didn’t have a chance.

· Speaking of… it appears that Ron Guidry is being used as the scapegoat for the pitching staff’s injuries. Chien Ming Wang began the year on the DL. Mike Mussina was old and not good and yet brought back. Roger Clemens was given some crazy money to come back part time, and he was hurt. Jeff Karstens was given a shot, and he got hurt. Andy Pettitte was actually solid. Phil Hughes came up and got hurt in his second start. The Yankees showed off a lot of young pitching talent throughout the season with Tyler Clippard, Chase Wright and Ian Kennedy all getting time in the rotation. Although they were young, the Yankees chances of winning was no worse with those guys, and they were far cheaper. Ron Guidry couldn’t do anything about that.

· That said, I think that the Yankees are in a position to put themselves in the playoffs (and maybe World Series) for the next several years. Leveraging the young talents like Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens and Shelley Duncan, they may have set up their next run. If so, the decision on the team’s next manager is very important, and I think that they know who the right guy is for the job. Let’s see… someone who has a history of getting the potential out of young players… someone with ties to the Yankees winning tradition… Don Mattingly? No, although he isn’t a bad guy to have around. Joe Girardi, in my mind, is the right choice. He was named NL Manager of the Year two years ago with the young Florida Marlins team that competed in the NL East until the final weeks of the season. Secondly, Girardi, I would think, would have the respect of the veteran Yankee players like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera as he won championships with those guys in 1996, 1998 and 1999. The lone scary thing that I can think of is: how did all those young pitchers who helped Girardi win in 2005 do in 2006? Don’t know? Well, most of them had arm injuries.

· You know, people talk a lot about the Cleveland bullpen in 2007 and how the team put a lot of effort into improving it last offseason. Now it is one of the best in baseball. They went out and signed veterans Aaron Fultz, Roberto Hernandez and Joe Borowski. Fultz was solid in 49 games (2.92 ERA in 37 innings). Hernandez pitched to a 6.23 ERA in 28 games and 26 innings. Although Borowski led the league in Saves, his 5.07 ERA and 1.41 WHIP tell an entirely different story. Think about the guys who have done the job for the Cleveland bullpen late in the year and in the playoffs. It has been Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis. What do they all have in common? They were all home-grown in the Cleveland farm system. Well, Lewis was a 3^rd round pick in 2005 out of Vanderbilt (just like Ryan Mullins). Perez signed with the team in 2002. Mastny came to the Tribe when he was still in A-ball from the Blue Jays. Betancourt came to Cleveland from the Red Sox organization in 2003 when he was still in AA. Yet another example of the importance of building from within and how free agency is not always the best method. Oh, and arguably the worst offender from the 2006 Cleveland bullpen… Fausto Carmona, the team’s 19 game winner, who signed with the team in 2000.

· By the way, I heard something interesting a few mornings ago while driving to work, listening to XM Radio’s Baseball This Morning show. Buck Martinez noted that Joe Borowski had more 1-2-3 innings than Mariano Rivera did in 2007. Kind of a shocking thing at first, but it probably shouldn’t be.

· Down in Arizona, the Twins farmhands represented themselves well for their Phoenix team. Matt Macri batted fifth and played 3B. He went 2-4 with his second home runs. Trevor Plouffe and Drew Butera each hit a double. Trying not to be negative, but with Butera behind the plate, he threw out just one out of six base stealers in the game.

· Although many Twins players and former players play for the Tigres de Aragua, others are playing in Venezuela as well. El Guapo, Rich Garces, pitches for Aguilas de Zulia. Darnell McDonald patrols the outfield for that team. Ricky Barrett, Danny Rondon, and Richard Sojo play for the Bravos de Margarita. On the roster of la Cardenales de Lara are Juan Rincon, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Selwyn Langaigne, Luis Ugueto and Brad Thomas. Carlos Silva, Mike Smith and Andres Torres are on the Caribes de Oriente roster. With Leones de Caracas, Henry Blanco, Luis Castillo and Alex Prieto are listed. Luis Rivas is with Cleveland right now, but he is also on the Navegantes del Magallanes roster.

· Other Twins, Twins prospects and former Twins are listed on Dominican Winter League rosters. For Auilas Cibaenas, Armando Gabino, Tony Batista and Jose Morban are on the roster. On the roster of Gigantes del Cibao are Julio DePaula and Alexi Casilla.

WEEK 7

	Seth Stohs	Roger Dehring	Kyle Waldrop	Kevin Slowey	Jeff Manship	Joe Benson
	SethSpeaks.net	Twins Minor League Expert	Reigning champ, and Twins pitching prospect	Twins starting pitcher	Twins Pitching Prospect	Twins Outfield Prospect
Arizona @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Atlanta @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Baltimore @ Buffalo	Bills	Ravens	Ravens	Bills	Ravens	Ravens
Minnesota @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
New England @ Miami	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
San Francisco @ NY Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Tampa Bay @ Detroit	Lions	Buccs	Buccs	Lions	Lions	Lions
Tennessee @ Houston	Texans	Texans	Titans	Texans	Texans	Texans
Kansas City @ Oakland	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
NY Jets @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Jets	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Chicago @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Bears	Bears
St. Louis @ Seattle	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Pittsburgh @ Denver	Steelers	Broncos	Steelers	Steelers by 17	Steelers	Steelers
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
	John Bonnes	Stick & Ball Guy	Will Young	Nick Nelson	Josh Johnson	Josh Taylor
	Twins Geek and mngameday.com	Stick & Ball Guy	Will's Twins Blog	Nick & Nick's Twins Blog	Josh's Thoughts	Taylor's Twins Thoughts
Arizona @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Atlanta @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Baltimore @ Buffalo	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Minnesota @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
New England @ Miami	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
San Francisco @ NY Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	49ers	Giants
Tampa Bay @ Detroit	Lions	Buccs	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions
Tennessee @ Houston	Texans	Texans	Titans	Titans	Texans	Titans
Kansas City @ Oakland	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Chiefs	Raiders	Chiefs
NY Jets @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Chicago @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Bears	Bears	Eagles	Eagles
St. Louis @ Seattle	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Pittsburgh @ Denver	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Broncos	Steelers	Steelers
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
	Cory Hepola	Vic Quick	Wes Holtsclaw	Howard Sinker	Tim Kohlemainen	LaVelle E. Neal
	WENY-TV	KOTA-TV	Elizabethton Star	Section 220	Truth About Cats & Blogs	Twins Insider
Arizona @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Atlanta @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Baltimore @ Buffalo	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Bills
Minnesota @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
New England @ Miami	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
San Francisco @ NY Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Tampa Bay @ Detroit	Buccs	Lions	Buccs	Buccs	Lions	Lions
Tennessee @ Houston	Titans	Texans	Titans	Texans	Texans	Titans
Kansas City @ Oakland	Raiders	Raiders	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
NY Jets @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Chicago @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Bears	Bears	Bears	Eagles
St. Louis @ Seattle	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Pittsburgh @ Denver	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Broncos	Steelers
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville	Jaguars	Jaguars	Colts	Colts	Jaguars	Jaguars
	Al Bethke	Bill Ferris	JD Arney	Mike Brasel	Melissa Lien	Trevor Born
	Al's Ramblings	Detroit Tigers Blog	Reds Reporter	Fantasy FB Guru	SethSpeaks.net	Twins Junkie
Arizona @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Atlanta @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Baltimore @ Buffalo	Ravens	Bills	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Minnesota @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
New England @ Miami	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
San Francisco @ NY Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Tampa Bay @ Detroit	Buccs	Lions	Lions	Lions	Buccs
Tennessee @ Houston	Titans	Titans	Titans	Texans	Titans
Kansas City @ Oakland	Chiefs	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
NY Jets @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Chicago @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Bears	Eagles	Eagles
St. Louis @ Seattle	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Pittsburgh @ Denver	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville	Colts	Colts	Jaguars	Jaguars	Colts

Summary

Looking at the selections of the panelists, here is who the collective "We" think will win each game:

Sunday-

Arizona @ Washington – Redskins 23-0
Atlanta @ New Orleans – Saints 23-0
Baltimore @ Buffalo – Ravens 19-4
Minnesota @ Dallas – Cowboys 23-0
New England @ Miami – Patriots 23-0
San Francisco @ NY Giants – Giants 22-1
Tampa Bay @ Detroit – Lions 15-8
Tennessee @ Houston – Texans 12-11
Kansas City @ Oakland – Raiders 12-11
NY Jets @ Cincinnati – Bengals 21-2
Chicago @ Philadelphia – Eagles 15-8
St. Louis @ Seattle – Seahawks 23-0
Pittsburgh @ Denver – Steelers 20-3
Monday Night -
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville – Colts 17-6

 Thanks again for stopping by this site. If you have any questions, comments or ideas for future postings, please e-mail me. Have a great weekend!

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