Saturday October 18, 2003

FRIDAY’S POSTING (thoughts on ALCS Game 7 and the expert FB Picks)

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS

EXCITING NEWS, and HELP?!?!?!

 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW

Game 1 of the World Series. What can be more exciting? Fans in both Miami and New York City must both be thinking: Just four more wins! Just four more wins! The Yankees would have to be the huge favorite going into the series but, as we learned in the championship series’, “Anything can (and usually does) happen in baseball.”

My concern with the World Series is that, after two amazing 7-game Championship Series, the Series may become anti-climatic. Can it possibly match the series just completed between the Cubs and the Marlins? Can it possibly come close to being as competitive and emotional as the Boston/New York series?

Probably not. It would be unfair to think that it could be. That said, at most, we’ve got seven more baseball games to enjoy. As a baseball fan, the World Series brings two emotions together. First, this is the pinnacle. This is where every team that goes to Spring Training is trying to get to. That said, when it’s over, we have to wait until Spring Training to get back to baseball. Sure, there’s basketball, football and hockey, but no major league baseball until February.

But, be sure to come back to this site daily throughout the offseason. I will try to keep you updated on Hot Stove news, transactions, free agent signings, winter ball information and the like. Yes, I will also talk football and basketball, and other things as well, but baseball is #1!

One more note I’ve been throwing around in my head since Game 7 of the ALCS ended: That was one of the best, most exciting games I have ever watched! No, it wasn’t as exciting for me personally as Game 7 of the 1991 World Series when the Braves and Twins went to the 10th inning scoreless before Gene Larkin singled in Dan Gladden, giving Jack Morris the 10-inning win and the Twins the World Series Championship. But it was a really incredible game. I bet a LOT of people became baseball fans last night. I hope that baseball can keep these fans. And, if you are a new baseball fan, I have to tell you something, “Not every baseball game is that exciting, BUT keep watching. You’ll understand after awhile that the 162 game schedule, the earlier playoff games, the earlier games in the series are all important in leading up to that conclusion.” Baseball is a great game!

I want to encourage everyone to go to Ben Jacobs’ Universal Baseball Blog and read what he wrote yesterday. Ben is one of our football expert panelists, but is a huge Red Sox fan. He wrote a great account of Game 7 and the emotions that a true fan goes through. He made an analogy that I thought really perfectly described the feelings of a real fan. The roller coaster analogy is great, but then the “I’ll be back next year” attitude is the way it should be.

Before I even really realized the inning was starting, Wakefield had delivered his first pitch to Boone and Boone had smacked it high and deep to left field. It stayed fair by plenty, it went into the stands by plenty and the Yankees won again.
Despite the fact that the Red Sox lost when they probably should have won, it was a great game. It was a game that may very well go down in history as the best non-World Series baseball game ever. I mean, come on, an extra-inning, walk-off home run by a player who wasn't even in the game when it started four hours earlier in the 26th meeting of the season between the most storied rivals in sports for a spot in the World Series? Who would ever believe it if it didn't really happen?
And, despite the fact that the story remained much the same, this was a great season to be a Red Sox fan. This season was a wildly exciting rollercoaster ride from the first game to the last. So what if last night it felt like the ride operator pulled the stop lever before we had reached the thrilling finale to the ride, leaving us momentarily disoriented as we stumbled off the ride and tried to refrain from being ill. When you choose to get on the big, exciting rides, you sometimes get sick. If you know what's good for you, though, you always come back.
And I'll be back next year, rooting just as hard for the Red Sox as ever. And the Red Sox will be back too. I guarantee that there will not be another prolonged stretch where the Red Sox don't make the playoffs or don't win in the playoffs.
How am I so sure? Hell, you might say, the fans in 1946 were probably sure that Ted Williams would get back to the World Series at least once and the fans in 1986 were probably sure that Clemens would lead Boston back to the World Series at least once. How can I be so sure, especially when the Red Sox didn't even reach the World Series this time?
Well, my faith is not in any of the players. Pedro Martinez? Nomar Gariciaparra? Manny Ramirez? You can take them all. Leave Theo Epstein in Boston, and I'll feel good about our chances. The boy wonder brought us to the brink of the World Series in his first season at the helm. Who knows what he can do from here on out? I know I'm excited to find out.

OK, enough about the previous series’, let’s get into some thoughts on the 2003 World Series:

FLORIDA MARLINS vs. NEW YORK YANKEES

How they got here?

The Florida Marlins finished 10 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, with 91 wins. However, the Marlins won the Wild Card by 4 games over the Houston Astros. In the first round of the playoffs, the Marlins knocked off the San Francisco Giants in 4 games. In the NLCS, down 3 games to 1, the Marlins came back to win the final three games, and the series in 7 games.

(By the way, be sure to check out this Rick Helling article by Mike McFeely  in today’s Fargo Forum.)

The New York Yankees won 101 games to win the AL East. In the first round, after losing Game 1, the Yankees took out my beloved Minnesota Twins in 4 games. That set up a highly anticipated ALCS matchup between the Yankees and the Red Sox, and that series was all anyone could have hoped for. The Yankees won Game 7, the series, and a trip to the World Series with an 11th inning home run by Aaron Boone.

Position-by-Position Ratings

Let’s take a look at each position and how the teams compare. I realize this really doesn’t mean anything when it comes to the small sample size of a 4-out-of-7 game series, but it’s still fun to look at. I have given an arrow to the player with the advantage (my opinion), the longer the arrow, the bigger the positional advantage. (Note - in preview series, I was able to analyze the starters in each game. Because of the pitching that the Yankees starters had to do just to get to the World Series, it is uncertain who will be starting each game for them. So, I am just lumping together the staffs’ top four starters. All we know is Game 1, tonight, will match Brad Penny of the Marlins against the Yankees David Wells.)

 

Yankees

Edge

Marlins

1B

Nick Johnson

->

Derrek Lee

2B

Alfonso Soriano

<-

Luis Castillo

3B

Aaron Boone

->

Mike Lowell

SS

Derek Jeter

<--

Alex Gonzalez

C

Jorge Posada

-

Ivan Rodriguez

LF

Hideki Matsui

<-

Jeff Conine

CF

Bernie Williams

-

Juan Pierre

RF

K.Garcia/J.Rivera

->

Miguel Cabrera

DH

Jason Giambi

<--

J Encarnacion

Starting

Mike Mussina

<--

Josh Beckett

Pitchers

Andy Pettite

 

Brad Penny

 

Roger Clemens

 

Mark Redman

 

David Wells

 

Dontrelle Willis

Closer

Mariano Rivera

<---

Ugueth Urbina

Relievers

 

<-

 

Bench

 

-->

 

Positional Question Marks

It is probably important to note a few things from the above.

First, thanks to Hank Blalock, the Yankees have home field advantage. This means that the DH will be used in games 1, 2, 6 and 7. However, for the games in Miami, when the pitchers have to hit, Joe Torre will have to decide whether to play Nick Johnson or Jason Giambi. Based on the fact that the Yankees owe Giambi about $100 million more than they have to pay Johnson, it should be clear who will be playing 1B, even though he hasn't yet in the postseason. The Marlins will use Juan Encarnacion and Jeff Conine as their DH. 

The Yankees RF situation is very interesting to me. In the four games with the Twins, Juan Rivera started all four games. In the Red Sox series, he barely saw any time, with Karim Garcia and David Dellucci splitting the time. Will Rivera get the nod when the Marlins start lefties Mark Redman and Dontrelle Willis?

I think people will find out just how good the Marlins players really are. I think the word ‘underrated’ can be used at every position, especially 1B Derrek Lee. I like their bench better too. I mean, with Mike Lowell back at 3B every game, and Jeff Conine in LF, that means Miguel Cabrera is now in RF. That means that the Marlins have the combination of Todd Hollandworth and Juan Encarnacion coming off the bench. Both are very solid major league players.

Is there any reason that Joe Torre would use Enrique Wilson in this series? My assumption is that Aaron Boone will start their every game, and he should.

Predictions-

Again, the Yankees would have to be the clear favorite heading into the series, but don’t overlook the Marlins. I hate to borrow this from Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, but, the Marlins have been referred to as "speedy", "overachievers", "gamers", "scrappy" and terms used to describe a team, but let’s also remember that this team is pretty good! Believe me, the Yankees know it too. Their lineup is balanced, with good on-base/speed guys up top, then some all-around good hitters in the middle of their lineup. Even Alex Gonzalez, their 8th hitter is a pretty decent hitter. Their pitchers? Josh Beckett showed the nation that he was worth all of the hype that accompanied him the last couple of years. Brad Penny won’t be back with them next year because of his expense, but he’s pretty good. Former Twin Mark Redman doesn’t have much, but he makes it work. A fastball that doesn’t get above about 86 mph, but a great change up and an adequate curveball make him a solid pitcher. Dontrelle Willis may be the most publicized of the bunch and the hype will probably win him the Rookie of the Year Award, but he’s the Marlins 4th best starter. That’s not a knock at Willis. He’s a quality pitcher. What it does do is just show how good their pitching can be. Ugueth Urbina is their closer, and he is good. He throws fairly hard, 93-94 with the fastball, but what makes him so tough is his changeup.

The Yankees are all well known. Every player on that roster has been thrown down our throats by not only Fox this offseason, but by all of the media! Again, that’s not taking anything away from them. Just remember that they are still human and make mistakes, even in the World Series (well, maybe not Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter, but the rest). As good as the Marlins starting pitchers are, the Yankees are even better. As solid as the Marlins lineup is 1 through 7, the Yankees are more strong 1-7.

But remember, the stronger team doesn’t always win. Sometimes the stronger team goes through a bad stretch in a seven game period. Sometimes the scrappy team makes enough breaks to pull off a few wins.

What I’m saying is that I think the Marlins stand a far better chance against the Yankees than I think anyone will really give them. As I’ve mentioned plenty of times in previous postings, I will be cheering for the Marlins. I’m a fan of the underdog. In March, I cheer for the Southern Illinois’ and Central Connecticut State’s in the NCAA basketball tournament. If this would end like I’d want, the Marlins would win the series in 7 games, with all 7 games being dramatic and emotional and fun to watch. However…

My Actual Series Prediction: Yankees in 5 games.

So there you have it. I hope everyone enjoys the game. For any in the New York or Miami areas, good luck to your teams. For everyone else, just enjoy the final games of the year!

For a really great series preview, be sure to check out Aaron’s Baseball Blog. If you would like to chime in on your World Series thoughts, feel free to e-mail me and I will respond.

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS

The Wolves lost their second consecutive pre-season game last night to the Indiana Pacers by a score of 96-93. I don’t even know why I mention that, the scores of preseason games really don’t matter. The Wolves played again without Latrell Sprewell, Michael Olowokandi and Wally Szczerbiak with injuries. Kevin Garnett led the way with 20 points and 12 boards. Sam Cassell scored 15 points while dropping 8 dimes. Gary Trent played well scoring 23 points and pulling down 7 rebounds in 28 minutes of play.

Again, the score of this game means nothing. But I do have some thoughts on the Wolves to share.

1.)     It would be nice if Sprewell, Olowokandi and Szczerbiak would be able to play soon. Along with KG, Cassell and T-Hud, these 6 will need to start logging some game time together, in order to gel! Of course, let’s not forget that since these players are all new to the team, it will take some time anyway. PLEASE don’t expect them to get a great start out of the gates, it probably won’t happen. I’d love to see it, but let’s be real. Gelling does take court time. Also, playing in the West will mean that they will need to play well every game, or could lose to any Western Conference team.

2.)     Quincy Lewis is making a strong play for a roster spot. Flip Saunders is giving him plenty of minutes on the court, which really is something Lewis never got in his three years in Utah. I’d like to see him make the team. If he’s your 12th man, that’s not too bad.

3.)     I think that the Wolves will carry 15 players on their roster. I think first-round pick, Ndudi Ebi will come up with some mysterious funny sounding injury shortly and will be put on the injured list. I think that they want to keep a few of these 12th men, and feel they can contribute if they were called upon. That includes Lewis, Kirk Penney, Keith McLoud, Reggie Slater and Jason Collier. (remember the sure thing guys to make the team are Kevin Garnett, Wally Szczerbiak, Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, Michael Olowokandi, Troy Hudson, Ervin Johnson, Gary Trent, Ndudi Ebi, Mark Madsen and Fred Hoiberg. That leaves up to four positions available should the Wolves take that many.)

So, what do you think about the upcoming Timberwolves season? I'm excited. I think they will be even better than they have been the past few 50-win seasons. I also think the rest of the Western Conference is tougher too. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Wolves, e-mail me if you would like to share what you think they'll be able to accomplish.

EXCITING NEWS, and HELP?!?!?!

OK, it may not be overly exciting for anyone but me, BUT, please check the number on the left side of this screen, under the links. You will see my ‘hit counter’ there. That shows how many times people have visited this site. 10,000. Over 10,000. That’s a big number. Just over a month ago, I remember passing the 5,000 hit count.

This site is a lot of fun for me. I enjoy writing about sports, especially baseball, and I want this site to be fun for the readers. In the last month, I have been referenced by several other baseball blogs written throughout the country, and that’s always exciting for me. Having my site mentioned in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune  was probably the highlight to date, and for a couple of days following that, the number of hits on my site really increased dramatically.

So now what? Well, it’s October 18, and I’ve had 10,000 hits in about 4 ½ months. That’s not a lot, but I’m happy with it. However, my goal is to double that amount of hits, to hit 20,000 hits by December 1. Do you think it’s possible?

That’s where I need your help. If you enjoy reading this site, please send me a quick e-mail and let me know where you’re from. I’d love to hear from readers, especially new readers, and finding out where you’re from, whether you’re a Twins fan from Minnesota or a Devil Rays fan in central Florida. Maybe you’re a Mets fan from northern California. I’d love to hear from you. Along with that, I’d love to hear what you want to read on a baseball, or sports-related, blog. What would make you go to bed saying, “Hey, I can’t wait to wake up tomorrow and read SethSpeaks?” (OK, maybe that’s a little dramatic, but you get my point.) More Discussion Questions? More stats? More opinion? More minor league information?

Secondly, I would love it if you would tell other sports fans you know about my site. Networking is a beautiful thing, right? Forward my link (http://www.sethspeaks.net/) to everyone in your address book! OK, you don’t have to do that, but please spread the word. And also, be sure to check out the Archives.

Thanks again for stopping by the website, whether you’re new to the site, or have been reading it daily, I do appreciate it!! Again, any comments you may have, please e-mail me. Have a great rest of the weekend!

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