Tuesday, October 12, 2004
So..
NOW WHAT?
OK, it’s been four days since the Twins’ season ended with their 3-1 series loss to the Yankees. It’s been enough time for me to be OK. Now I’m ready to give my take on what the Twins should be doing as they are planning for their 2005 season. First, I’m going to go through who I think will be on the 2005 roster. I happen to think that the Twins can maintain a budget of approximately $50 million for next season, keep some of the current players, and replace others with some prospects, prospects who’s ceilings may be even higher anyway. I think the team can not only compete in the AL Central, but win the division, a division which should be stronger next year as both the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians should improve again.
I have no way of knowing who the Twins would receive if certain players would be traded, so my roster will be comprised of players currently in the Twins organization. But remember who the Twins were able to receive as part of trades last year. Also, picking up players like Henry Blanco and Augie Ojeda and Terry Mulholland as free agents may not seem like big transactions, but each contributed to the team. So, I will present who I believe the Twins should have on their roster, then I will take a look at those that I really don’t think should be back.
At the end, you will see that I ask a Discussion Question regarding what you think that the Twins should do this offseason. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Please e-mail me.
So, here you go, position-by-position (14 position players, 11 pitchers), Seth’s Minnesota Twins 2005 Opening Day roster: (Note - many of the dollar value projections are estimated.)
Position Players (14)
Catcher
Joe Mauer - ($310,000) - Obviously the questions are: Will Mauer be completely healthy and able to catch three out of four games? I know a lot of people think he needs to prove himself in more than 120 plate appearances. I don’t disagree. Hopefully next year we’ll get to see him get 500! But based on his limited time, he did show that he was ready, even earning a promotion to the third spot in the lineup. He even showed the power that many people projected. But, equally important to the role of major league catcher, he earned the respect of the pitching staff and threw out 39% of would-be base stealers. Mauer is the real deal. If he is healthy, and I have no doubt that he will be, he will become an All-Star!
Henry Blanco - ($1 million) - Based on what Blanco did for the Twins and their pitching staff, Henry Blanco deserves to have his option picked up by the team. Sure, he can’t hit, but he did come threw with 10 homers and other big hits. Also, if he is catching just once or twice a week, he can still provide a lot of value to the team. He threw out 49% of would-be base stealers and was called the best defensive catcher in the American League by Buck Showalter. This decision should be a no-brainer. If there are injuries, the Twins also recently signed Corky Miller after he was released by the Reds. Of course, they released him because he hit .026 for them this year (1-39).
First Base
Justin Morneau - (probably $310,000) - Finally the Twins rid themselves of the defensive specialist Doug Mientkiewicz. It was really about time. Morneau crushed AAA pitching, again, and had absolutely nothing more to prove at that level. He had to be called up, and Mientkiewicz had to go! Sure, he isn’t as good (or at least not as flashy) as Mientkiewicz defensively, but he was really a surprise to me with the glove. I was rather impressed. I think he improved a lot in the past year, and is not a liability at all there. And, if he can duplicate his combined offensive numbers (40 doubles, 41 HR, 121 RBI) in coming years, the Twins will be thrilled!
Matthew LeCroy - ($700,000) - I really didn’t know where to put LeCroy. He is kind of in an awkward position for the Twins. He can play 1B, C, DH and pinch hit. Defensively, he’s a bad catcher, but a good third option. He can give Morneau a day off from time to time. He is a good, still relatively cheap hitter who could provide a lot of value to the Twins. I think he’s worth bringing back for his power potential alone.
Second Base
Michael Cuddyer - ($350,000) - The time has come. Rivas should be gone! Michael Cuddyer should be going into Spring Training next year knowing he will be the Twins starting 2B. He should be able to bring just one glove to the field every day. His defense has drastically improved over the year, with increased and consistent playing time. I think that the same will be able to be said with the bat. Already, he is a better on-base and power hitting type than Rivas, and I believe that his batting average will increase as well.
Nick Punto - ($300,000) - Showed this year that he can put together a quality at bat. He can hit a little. He can run. And I really don’t think that we will ever be able to question his effort. He can play 2B, SS, 3B and even center field. In case of injury, I would feel comfortable with him getting a starting role as well. If that would become the case, the Twins could go to AAA and bring up Jason Bartlett or Augie Ojeda to fill the utility role.
Third Base
Corey Koskie - ($3.5 million) - Corey Koskie has the ability to be as good a third baseman as anyone in the league… IF he can only stay healthy. This year, he missed 44 games yet still led the team with 25 homers. To me, that warrants the thought of bringing him back. However, if I’m the Twins, I say, "Corey, here’s what we offer you. 2 years, $7.5 million. Take it or leave it." I truly believe that the Twins want Koskie back and that he wants to be back. He is a great leader on the team and lives in Minnesota in the offseason (not that that should play any role). He would be a good guy to keep around. However, if he isn't willing to work at the Twins price, I have complete confidence in Terry Tiffee.
Terry Tiffee - ($300,000) - And that said, I think that Terry Tiffee showed in his September call up that he can be a very solid replacement should Koskie be hurt. He has hit well the last two minor league seasons, at AA and then AAA, including adding some power to his game. He also has the ability to do well at 1B too. I think that Ron Gardenhire should make himself give Koskie a day off every third or fourth day, especially early in the season. The Twins can do that, without losing much offense. Tiffee can also DH and pinch hit.
Shortstop
Cristian Guzman - ($3.5 million) - Like Koskie, the Twins have to make a big decision on Guzman. They can opt to resign him at $5.25 million. However, I would want them to tear up that option (which would be done at $200,000) and draw up a new one. I would then offer him the same deal as Koskie, with a third year option. 2004 - $3.5 million. 2005 - $4 million. 2006 - option at $4.25 million. If he is willing to do that, and I don’t believe he would get more than that on the open market, I do think he would be worth keeping. It is important to remember, and hard to believe, that Guzman is still just 26 years old. In the second half, I could actually see him getting more comfortable as a leader on the team. I saw him actually play hard and play with emotion. And, he is not a great hitter by any means, but if he can hit ninth and hit .280, and continue to play the great defense he has the last couple of years, I have no problem keeping him. If he decides he wants/needs more money, I am more than happy with the team giving the job to Jason Bartlett. He did hit .330 with good ‘other’ numbers. He could also use another year at Rochester to improve his defense.
Left Field
Lew Ford - ($350,000) - A year ago, I aid that the Twins had no need to re-sign Shannon Stewart because Lew Ford had shown that he could be a good leadoff hitter. Well, this year, he proved himself to be far more than that. He hit for average, some power, drove in runs, got on-base, and stole bases (20-22). Also, we can wall see that he is a far better defensive outfielder than Stewart with a far better arm. Basically, he became the Twins most consistent overall hitter this season and has earned an every day job in 2005.
Center Field
Torii Hunter - ($8 million) - Hunter officially becomes expensive this year. But based on his numbers this year, I really don’t have a problem with that. Actually, he missed 24 games again this year with an early-season injury. He still hit 23 homers and drove in 81. That’s not bad at all. When he moved into the #3 spot in the lineup, I think he actually became a better hitter. I know he still has some bad, frustrating at bats, but for some reason, that didn’t bother me as much this year. Maybe it is because his defense is still so incredible! He is the best defensive center fielder in baseball and plays the position with a reckless abandon. He is the other clear leader for the Twins. Having sat right behind him during the playoffs, I noticed just how much he communicates, verbally and through signs with the other outfielders. I expect him to take more strides offensively. Again, that simply means finding/learning a way to not have as many bad at bats.
Right Field
Jason Kubel - ($300,000)- Jason Kubel went from a top-level Twins prospect last year to one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball this year. He crushed the ball at New Britain and was quickly moved up to Rochester. He ended up leading the International League in hitting. Then he came up to the Twins and hit .300 with a couple more homers in 60 at bats. He has shown good plate discipline (with the exception that everyone seems to want to talk about, the one against Rivera in the playoffs). However, even Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan are speaking extremely well about Kubel, and they don’t hand out a lot of compliments, or jobs, to young players including Justin Morneau (exception Joe Mauer). I think that bodes well for Kubel’s future. His defense obviously needs work, but the only way to improve is by playing out there. He has a rocket for an arm though!
Michael Restovich - ($310,000) - Resto is out of options, so either he makes the Twins opening day roster, or he has to clear waivers (And believe me, someone will claim him and make him an every day player). He clearly has the talent to be a quality big leaguer. He can hit, especially against left-handers. I guess I would platoon Resto with Kubel. I would also try to get him one or two starts a week between right field and DH. He has shown that he is a good defensive outfielder with an adequate arm and good speed. He has been kind of jerked around by the Twins enough in the last two seasons. He deserves his chance, whether it is with the Twins or in a trade.
Designated Hitter
Shannon Stewart - ($6 million) - Because I think that Ford is clearly the better defensive outfielder, I think that Stewart needs to be the primary DH. He has been such a strong catalyst for the Twins offense the last year and a half. I thought that they should not have resigned him last year just because the Twins are strong already in the outfield. This year, I would like to see what they could get for him in trade. Not because he isn’t good, but because of his price tag AND the fact that he is injured frequently as well. In 2004, he hit .304, but missed 70 games with leg and foot injuries. I think he could get some value in return as his contract is reasonable for bigger markets. Maybe the Dodgers would still be interested!
Pitchers (11)
Starting Pitchers (5)
Johan Santana - (arbitration-eligible, should receive about $4 million, hopefully the team will sign him long-term) - "If so, Cy Young Awards could be in his future!" That is the sentence I concluded my thoughts on Santana last year at this time. I did not expect it to happen this year. I thought he’d be good, but no one could have predicted just how dominant he became. He had one of the best pitching seasons in recent history, including an incredible second half. He will win the AL Cy Young Award this year and could be the best pitcher in all of baseball right now. He is already in his second year of arbitration, so this kind of season could cost the Twins some money. I guess maybe they should have signed him long term last year at this time. I think he should be signed for a long time. I’m thinking a five year, $36.5 million deal. (annual salaries of $4 million, $6 million, $7.5 million, $9 million, $10 million). I don’t think that his agent or Santana would accept that amount, or maybe even that number of years, but it is a good starting point in negotiations.
Brad Radke - (free agent - hopefully will sign for about $7 million) - Radke is the Twins #1 free agent going into the offseason, and for good reason. He put together his best pitching season of his career. Yes, his 11-8, 3.48 ERA this year was probably better than his 20-10, 3.87 ERA season in 1997. Radke has throw more than 210 innings in eight of the last nine seasons for the Twins. I think that Radke wants to stay with the Twins as long as they don’t make him offensive offers. I guess that I would try to offer him a three year deal for about $22 million ($6.5 million in 2005, $7.5 million in 2006, $8 million in 2007). A guy as consistent as Radke, who is coming off such a remarkable season, could warrant a lot of money in the offseason. I think that the Yankees and Red Sox would both love a pitcher of this caliber to solidify their staffs. However, I do believe that the Twins will come through and that Radke will take less to stay. I hope at least!
Carlos Silva - (arbitration-eligible, could get $1.75 million) - Carlos Silva had made just one start in two big league seasons in Philadelphia. He came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade and really was great for the team. He started the season 4-0. He had his ups and downs, but then in September he was great again. It would be nice to see him continue to develop and eventually strike out more hitters, but he does get a lot of ground balls. Silva had a very solid season, and I would like to see him improve a little bit next year. He is arbitration-eligible and based on his 14 wins, I think that he could make some money next year.
Kyle Lohse - (arbitration-eligible, could warrant $1.5 million) - Lohse is also eligible for arbitration. He had a rough 2004 season, but could still make some money based on his consecutive 14 win seasons in 2002 and 2003. I think that Lohse will be given the opportunity to stay in the starting rotation at the start of next season. However, if he struggles, the Twins would be much more likely to take him out of the rotation with the likes of Durbin, Baker, Gassner, Liriano and even Joe Mays as possible replacements in the rotation). He is still young and has shown plenty of flashes that he can be good, so I’d hate to see them just give up on him.
JD Durbin - ($300,000) - I believe that 2005 will be the year of The Real Deal! He would have been called up to the Twins earlier, I’m sure, had he not missed two months with arm surgery. But he does seem fully recovered from that and earned a promotion to Rochester before coming up to the Twins in September. He is now in Arizona, pitching in the Fall League. I think starting him in the rotation from the beginning of the year will relax him and he could be very solid by May or June!
Left-Handed Relief Pitchers (2)
JC Romero - (arbitration-eligible, will probably get around $1 million) - Romero has pretty decent raw pitching numbers. I mean, he was 7-4 with a 3.51 ERA. He also had that long 26 scoreless inning streak (during which time he still allowed 9 of 16 inherited runners to score). But if we’re being honest, he was not good the whole year. He was actually sent to the minors for a few weeks because of poor performance. He also was horrible when the team could have used him the most, before and in the playoffs. It is just impossible not to see just how good he can be. Also the fact that he is left-handed makes him fairly valuable too. I want to see the team give him one more chance, but not if he asks for too much!
David Gassner - ($300,000) - Aaron Fultz could be brought back. Terry Mulholland could fit a role. But I would like to see the Twins give David Gassner a chance to be a left-handed reliever. He came to the Twins as the player-to-be-named-later in the Shannon Stewart/Bobby Kielty trade last winter. He went 16-8 with a 3.41 ERA at Rochester this year. He also walked just 30 hitters in 174.1 innings.
Right-Handed Relief Pitchers (3)
Juan Rincon - ($400,000) - Juan Rincon was the Twisn best reliever outside of Joe Nathan in 2004. Forget his meltdown in Game 4 against the Yankees. He was as good as any non-K-Rod relievers in the league much of the year. He throws hard and has a nasty slider. In 82 innings this year, he struck out 106 and walked just 32! He is dominant and should continue to be a top set up man.
Grant Balfour - ($310,000) - Just as Twins fans should not get overly excited or upset up Rincon’s rough Game 4, they need to control their excitement over Grant Balfour’s impressive two inning stint in the same game. Six up, six down. He throws 96 mph consistently. He also shows a good slider. He just has fought injuries the last couple of years. If he can be healthy, he can be another dominant power arm in the bullpen!
Jesse Crain - ($300,000) - The Twins will have a third power-arm in the bullpen. I argued that Jesse Crain should spend the 2004 season in the bullpen and become the closer in 2005. Well, with the performance of Joe Nathan this year, Crain can spend another year as the set up man. But he is another guy that can throw 96 or more. He also has a sharp 72 mph curveball. He clearly needs to work on his control in the big leagues, but part of that may be nerves, and being with the team the whole year may help that happen. These three could be the equivalent to the Angels vaunted bullpen of 2002 of Francisco Rodriguez, Brendan Donnelly and Ben Weber.
Closer (1)
Joe Nathan - ($1.5 million) - If that is the case, then Nathan is the Twins version of Troy Percival. But I don’t know that even Percival has had a year as dominant as Nathan was in 2004. 44 Saves in 47 Save Opportunities. 1-2, 1.62 ERA. 89 strikeouts in 72.1 innings. No matter how you look at his 2004 season, it was remarkable! So yeah, he met the marks needed to earn his 2005 contract extension.
SUMMARY
So, there you have it, my look at a potential 2005 roster. If you add up those contracts, it comes to under $43.6 million. But, don’t forget that the Twins will be paying injured Joe Mays $7.25 million to continue to rehab from Tommy John surgery. It sounds as though Mays may be able to start pitching in Spring Training. If he is healthy, he will make the team, if only because of his contract. Personally, I would start him as a long-reliever out of the bullpen and ease him back to more innings. If one of the starters struggles and Mays is back, he could be a good option for the rotation as well.
All said, we’ve got a payroll of $50.85 million, less than last seasons, and we have kept the majority of the key players around. It would be balanced, with pitchers earning $25.61 million and hitters getting $25.24 million. This is a team that can win now and in the future, obviously assuming healthy and typical production.
You may be asking yourself, what would the possible lineups look like? Well here are a couple of attempts, one against righties and one against lefties:
Versus Right-Hander Versus Left-Hander
DH - Shannon Stewart DH - Shannon Stewart
C - Joe Mauer LF - Lew Ford
CF -Torii Hunter C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau CF - Torii Hunter
3B - Corey Koskie 1B - Justin Morneau
LF -Lew Ford 2B - Michael Cuddyer
RF - Jason Kubel RF-Michael Restovich
2B - Michael Cuddyer 3B - Terry Tiffee
SS - Cristian Guzman SS - Cristian Guzman
Who’s Gone??
Jacque Jones - As I mentioned, I would love for him to be back. I really would. Before this year, he was a good, solid hitter. No, he doesn’t walk much and has some bad at bats, but he does have power and hit .300 the two previous seasons. He is arbitration-eligible and could warrant a lot of money next year (likely between $6 and $7 million). With the Twins organizational strength in the outfield, and $14 million already tied up between Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart, it is unjustifiable.
Terry Mulholland - He was definitely worth the $1 investment to get him. He also earned his minimal salary by pitching well in whatever role he was put into. He solidified the Twins fifth starter spot in the second half, and despite not putting up great numbers, gave the team valuable innings.
Aaron Fultz - I can see the Twins wanting to bring Fultz back for Spring Training, and maybe even for AAA. There aren’t a lot of lefties, which makes him a viable guy to try to keep in the organization. He wasn’t very good though and if the Twins can find better options, I would think they’ll go for it.
Pat Borders - Borders did all right for the Twins. Nothing great, but they weren’t hoping for anything great. They just wanted someone better than Rob Bowen! Also, all he cost was BJ Garbe! He will unfortunately be remembered for his lack of effort to block the Kyle Lohse slider that plated A-Rod from third for the go-ahead run in the 11th inning of Game 4.
Luis Rivas - Rivas is not as bad as he is made out to be. He can hit, just not very well. He can field, just not very well. But as Rivas apologists (like I used to be) like to say, "He does turn the double-play well!" He will catch on with another team. He is eligible for arbitration again this year, and would likely get a raise from his $1.5 million salary this year. That just can’t be justified when Michael Cuddyer is better and far cheaper. I wish him well!
Who’s Next??
Jason Bartlett - His 2005 future is completely dependent on what the Twins decide to do with Cristian Guzman. He could be the Twins starting shortstop. If not, he could use more defensive work at AAA. I believe that he can make the routine plays most of the time at SS, and would be better offensively than Guzman next year.
Josh Rabe - Another OF prospect who will probably start at AAA. He had a solid first full season at Rochester.
Rob Bowen - What a terrible year for Bowen! He was sent to AA to start the season and didn’t hit at all. He was called up to the Twins when Mauer was hurt, and played very little. He was called up a couple of other times throughout the year. But he barely hit .100 with the Twins and didn’t do well defensively either. Back at New Britain, he couldn’t even stay above the .200 mark all season. But the Twins must still see some future for him, since he was sent to the Arizona Fall League.
Adam Johnson - With the power arms from the right-side in the Twins bullpen, Johnson’s days as a Twin should be numbered. I believe he is out of options, so the Twins may have to trade him if they want to get anything for him.
Scott Baker - Should be the Twins minor league pitcher of the year. Baker dominated Ft. Myers and New Britian before moving up to Rochester where he leveled off, yet still showed his promise. If there are injuries in the Twins staff, he could be called up soon.
Francisco Liriano - The Twins got him in the AJ Pierzynski/Joe Nathan deal (with Boof Bonser, who could appear on this list as well). He is still just 20 years old, left-handed and throws in the upper-90s. Spent most of the season at Ft. Myers. Once he was moved up to New Britain, he did even better in a few starts. He may be another year off, but his future is unlimited, if he stays healthy, something he did for the first time in his short career.
Glen Perkins - The former Gopher lefty was the Twins second first round pick this year. He dominated younger hitters at Elizabethton and Quad Cities. I would expect him to spend part of the 2005 season at Ft. Myers before moving up to New Britain. He could be a Twins pitcher by 2006.
Kevin West - Had another huge year at New Britain. A big, powerful hitter, he was called up to Rochester for the last month of the year and continued to hit. His future in the big leagues would be as a DH, but he can hit! Between the two levels, he hit 42 double, had 29 homers and drove in 109 runs.
Luis Maza -The Twins are not deep in their system with middle infielders. That is what makes the emergence of Luis Maza so important. He mashed the ball all year at AA New Britain and should spend 2005 in Rochester.
So there you have it, my choices to be on the 2005 Minnesota Twins rosters, who won’t be back, and what other minor leaguers may get an opportunity to contribute. As I’ve mentioned before though, I really don’t envy the job that Terry Ryan has in front of him again this winter.
DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK
I’m sure you’ve got plenty of comments on my thoughts on the 2005 Twins. If so, please be sure to e-mail me. We’re going to make this into a discussion question. There are many new readers to the site since the last time we had a Discussion Question, so let me again explain how this works.
First, I will ask a question, and I would like some interaction with the readers, letting me know what they think. Second, think about the question and how you would answer it, then send me an e-mail with your answer. Finally, on Friday, I will write up a posting composed of your thoughts on the question. Hopefully I’ll get plenty of e-mails from you, so that we get some varying opinions.
Take a look at some previous Discussion Questions of the Week:
8/8/2003 - Who Do You Want To Talk To?
8/15/2003 - All-Time Best Lineups
8/29/2003 - Your Thoughts on the Twins
9/5/2003 - Is Terry Ryan "The Man" or "The Goat"?
So, here’s the Question of This Week:
"The Twins had another very good season in 2004. Terry Ryan has some very difficult roster decisions to make. IF YOU WERE TERRY RYAN, THE TWINS GM, WHAT WOULD YOU DO? WHAT WOULD YOUR ROSTER LOOK LIKE IN 2004?"
Thanks for thinking about it, and I can’t wait to hear the responses. Please be sure to e-mail me.
These are the decisions of the offseason for the Twins. They will also be looking at the list of free agents and determine if they want to go after any of them.
I would love to preview this series, as I did the Twins/Yankees series. I know that the media, particularly Fox and ESPN are thrilled that the ALCS features these two big market teams. It is what they always want. It is what they got. And, because of it, they will get huge ratings. But much of those ratings will be from the northeast. Do people around the country really care who wins this series? I mean, I realize everyone hates the Yankees (for reasons I will never fully understand). I personally can't stand the Red Sox either. They spend a lot more money than all of the other teams not from New York. Yet, they will play the salary card and other excuses in this series.
I guess what I want to know is if anyone really cares about this series, or even who wins it? Are you cheering against the Yankees? Are you cheering for the continuation of the Red Sox "Curse"? If you're from outside of the Northeast, are you even going to watch the games?
I guess I will because I know that these will be very good, very competitive games played at a high level. It could be fun to watch. But if I'm being truthful, I wish the Twins were playing. I would also watch a series between the Yankees and Angels. I guess I just try not to get too into the whole Yankees/Red Sox thing. Both teams spend and spend, and complain when they don't get certain things, and claim that the other is doing something wrong. It is just frustrating because it takes away from the rest of baseball. It will garner the majority of the media attention in the next week. Fact is, I am really excited to see the Cardinals/Astros series too.
So, I don't know about you, but of the four teams remaining, I will be cheering for the Cardinals, then the NL team to beat the team that comes out of the AL.
But, no one wants to read my rant on how much I am annoyed (yet curiously will watch) by the AL Championship series, again. You just want to know who I think will win.
The only reason I would want the Red Sox to win is so they'll shut up about the stupid Curse. I like Schilling, Ortiz, Damon, Pokey Reese, Orlando Cabrera and some of the others. I will be happy to see them win without Nomar. There are plenty of reasons for me to not like them. The big mouth of Mientkiewicz, the attitude of Manny Ramirez and more.
The only reason I want the Yankees to win would probably be to continue the Red Sox curse. Also, I figure that the Twins showed that they can compete with the Yankees and could have beaten them. So, if the Yankees go on the win the World Series, the Twins can know just how good they were. I love watching the Yankees hit. I could watch Sheffield hit all day. I like how respectful the Yankees are of the game. Don't be mad at the players for taking what George Steinbrenner offered.
OK...
Starting pitching - Advantage Red Sox (big advantage in the top two, but even after)
Relief pitching - Advantage Push (Gordon over anyone)
Closer - Advantage Yankees (assuming Rivera will be around)
Offense - Advantage Yankees (just sheer numbers, 1-8)
Defense - Advantage Red Sox (only slightly)
Manager - Advantage Yankees (Torre just manages a game so well)
Therefore, my prediction is New York Yankees in 6 games.