Tuesday, October 9, 2007
WEEK 5 Picks
Good morning, ya'll! First things first, Happy Birthday to my dad! As you are reading this, I am either 1.) getting nervous about my upcoming presentation at a meeting today, 2.) actually standing in front of people, hopefully speaking clearly and able to answer any potential questions, or 3.) about as relieved as a person can be after presenting. Anyway, seemed like a good day for a guest writer! Back at the beginning of August, Mark Zoff wrote a great article on Jason Kubel. And now, this is the follow-up.
The Suddenly Less Curious Case of Jason Kubel: AKA Kubel Part Deux-bel
Month
Avg
OBP
SLG
OPS
BABIP
BB/K
HR/PA
April/Mar
0.261
0.288
0.348
0.636
0.31
0.25
0.00%
May
0.22
0.297
0.366
0.663
0.271
0.38
2.17%
June
0.266
0.309
0.469
0.778
0.264
0.5
4.41%
July
0.225
0.288
0.437
0.725
0.214
0.54
5.00%
August
0.364
0.438
0.509
0.947
0.404
1.00
1.56%
Sept/Oct
0.325
0.404
0.584
0.989
0.379
0.65
3.37%
After writing my previous post on August 2nd, (The Curious Case of Jason Kubel), and seeing Jason Kubel finish with a blistering August and September, I feel like someone who invested in Apple in 2004. Apple's stock had entered the millennium with a good amount of momentum. However as the performance did not meet expectations and the tech bubble burst, Apple's stock took quite the drubbing from investors and barely inched for the next two years. However, at its low point in 2001, Apple introduced the iPod which portended well for the coming years and would be the bedrock of its future success. Over time Apple's, financial performance became increasingly fantastic and from 2004 until now, Apple's stock price has been one of the brightest stars on Wall St. rising almost 1500% in the last three plus years.
Similarly, Jason Kubel entered this season as the great hope for an improved offense from the Twins. As recently as 2005, before injuries ravaged his knees for the better part of two years, Jason Kubel was considered a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. LaVelle E. Neal called Jason Kubel his pick for his offensive player to click and, if memory holds, a respectable majority of commenters on his blog chose Kubel as well. Although his line drive percentage in April and May was impressive, he had a poor walk to strikeout ratio and wasn't hitting the ball out of the ball park nearly enough…or at all. However, in June and July, Jason Kubel began walking in increasing rates to strikeouts and hitting the ball out of the ball park at a 25 HR a year pace. The only problem during June and July was that balls were not falling into play anywhere near the rate his line drive percentage would predict. In many of the same ways that Ramon Ortiz' hot April couldn't be maintained due to fundamental deficiencies, it was becoming increasingly clear that Jason Kubel was a much better hitter than his Avg/OBP/SLG were showing.
Jason Kubel's August and September were beautiful reversions to the mean for Kubel-backers. While many Twins hitters faded down the stretch, Jason Kubel was the best hitter on the Twins those two months with an OPS of approximately .975. Jason Kubel's biggest problem was more often than not Ron Gardenhire. Despite Kubel's torrid performance during this time, Gardenhire would often opt for Rondelle White's slightly less blistering OPS of .571 in the 2nd Half. Although Kubel's power faded by the end of the year, his batting eye continued to improve highlighted by an August where he walked as many times as he struck out.
The $1.2 million dollar question, his approximate salary next year, is whether his performance from August and September is sustainable. Although I don't expect his average to remain that high nor his OPS to be above .950, two factors lead me to believe that Jason Kubel's performance in August and September is more iPod Nano (Springboard) than Apple Newton(High water mark). While I certainly do fault Gardenhire for opting for White and Tyner at the expense of Kubel, Gardenhire did maximize Kubel at the end of the year by putting him in the two-hole for many bats in August and September. Jason Kubel is a career .618 OPS hitter the first time he sees a pitcher, a .750 OPS hitter the 2nd time he sees a pitcher, and a whopping 1.188 OPS against a pitcher the third time he sees him. Gardenhire putting Kubel in the two-hole maximizes the chances that he will see a pitcher three times and will increase his production. For comparison, Joe Mauer's OPS only increases a mere .150 OPS points and Torii Hunter's OPS increases .100 OPS points from the first to the third time facing a pitcher. Although the sample sizes are still small for this data point, having Kubel hit in the two-hole definitely puts him in the best position to succeed based on the available data. Finally, Jason Kubel's line drive percentage was an amazing 25% during July and August which means he should have a BABIP of approximately .370. Even with some regression to the mean of his BABIP, one can reasonably expect some increase in power from his August and September numbers based on his minor league track record. Jason Kubel is still the same future cornerstone, .900 OPS hitter that he was at the beginning of the year. The only thing that has changed is that he had an awesome August and September in the process.
So, what do you think? What will the career of Jason Kubel look like?
NFL "EXPERT" PICKS (UPDATE through Week 5)
|
Final Standings |
Total |
Week |
4 |
|
Over |
All |
|
|
Name |
Site |
W |
L |
Win% |
W |
L |
Win % |
|
Stick & Ball Guy |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
41 |
21 |
66.1% |
|
|
JD Arney |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
40 |
22 |
64.5% |
|
|
Josh Taylor |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
40 |
22 |
64.5% |
|
|
7 |
7 |
50.0% |
40 |
22 |
64.5% |
||
|
Roger Dehring |
Several Blogs |
9 |
5 |
62.3% |
40 |
22 |
64.5% |
|
Howard Sinker |
8 |
6 |
57.1% |
39 |
23 |
62.9% |
|
|
LaVelle E. Neal III |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
37 |
25 |
59.7% |
|
|
Seth Stohs |
SethSpeaks.net |
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
36 |
26 |
58.1% |
|
Wes Holtsclaw |
7 |
7 |
50.0% |
36 |
26 |
58.1% |
|
|
Tim Kolehmainen |
3 |
11 |
21.4% |
36 |
26 |
58.1% |
|
|
Mike Brasel |
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
35 |
27 |
56.5% |
|
|
Cory Hepola |
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
35 |
27 |
56.5% |
|
|
Nick Nelson |
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
35 |
27 |
56.5% |
|
|
SethSpeaks Panel |
|
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
35 |
27 |
56.5% |
|
John Bonnes |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
34 |
28 |
54.8% |
|
|
Al Bethke |
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
34 |
28 |
54.8% |
|
|
Vic Quick |
3 |
11 |
21.4% |
33 |
29 |
53.2% |
|
|
Melissa Lien |
SethSpeaks.net |
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
33 |
29 |
53.2% |
|
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
33 |
29 |
53.2% |
||
|
Trevor Born |
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
32 |
30 |
51.6% |
|
|
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
32 |
30 |
51.6% |
||
|
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
32 |
30 |
51.6% |
||
|
Will Young |
6 |
8 |
42.9% |
31 |
31 |
50.0% |
|
|
Josh Johnson |
4 |
10 |
28.6% |
29 |
33 |
46.8% |
|
|
Bill Ferris |
5 |
9 |
35.7% |
29 |
33 |
46.8% |
If you have any questions, comments or ideas for future postings, please e-mail me.