Monday, October 9, 2005
So..
NOW WHAT?
OK, it was just Friday afternoon that the Twins season came to an end. They lost to the A's 8-3 and were swept 3-0. The A's will advance to the ALCS where they will take on the Detroit Tigers, who beat the New York Yankees in four games.
Now, I am sure that what will happen with the Twins in the offseason may not be as dramatic as what happens with the Yankees. I mean, Joe Torre may lose his job, but I think that Ron Gardenhire is safe, no matter what your thoughts on the job he has done as the Twins skipper.
But today, it is about determining where the team goes from here. What if Carl Pohlad were to do something completely out of character for him? What if he were to fire Terry Ryan, the Twins GM, and post the job opportunity in the newspaper? What if you actually got an interview? It would be good to go into it with some plan, right?
Today, I am submitting my thoughts on what the 2007 Minnesota Twins lineup should look like:
However, I should point out that I have no way of knowing who the Twins would receive if certain players would be traded, so my roster will be comprised of players currently in the Twins organization with a couple of guesses as to other players they could (or should) acquire. But remember who the Twins were able to receive as part of trades in the last couple of years. So, I will present who I believe the Twins should have on their roster, then I will take a look at those that I really don’t think should be back.
I also need to say that I think that Terry Ryan is an excellent GM. Sure, in the last couple of years he has signed guys like Tony Batista and Juan Castro, but he has made a lot of terrific trades (Milton, Romero and especially Pierzynski) and deserves a lot of credit for the Twins successes.
I have done this same type of thing at the end of the last few Twins seasons. I'm never actually right. I would love to hear a lot of discussion on this topic though. This year, I have the Comments available down below, so please feel free to agree with me, disagree with me, submit a roster of your own, or tell me what you think. Of course, you can also e-mail me if you would rather not have your thoughts posted publicly.
So, here you go, position-by-position (14 position players, 11 pitchers), Seth’s Minnesota Twins 2007 Opening Day roster: (Note - many of the dollar value projections are estimated.) Just to let you know, tomorrow I will be back with another fun Q&A with a Twins minor league prospect, so be sure to check back. I have a few ideas for articles for the rest of this week. In case you are new to the site, I will be making new posts almost every week day, so keep stopping by every morning!
Position Players (14)
Catcher
Joe Mauer - ($3,500,000) - The knees appear to be just fine. The swing appears nearly flawless. Yes, I would like to see him turn on some inside pitches and drive them to the gaps and over the fence. That will come. There is not much more sweet in baseball than watching Mauer slap the ball to left field though. He is one of the best defensive catchers in the game and is about to make a lot of money. if I was GM, I would offer him a five year contract now to get through his arbitration years and a couple of free agent years. If the Twins don't have him on the roster when the new stadium is opened, it would be a monumental mistake, so sign him up now. I am thinking that I would start negotiations at: $3.5 million in 2007, $6 million in 2008, $7.5 million in 2009, $8.5 million in 2010, and $9 million in 2011. That adds up to five years and $34.5 million. That far exceeds the five year, $15.5 million deal that the Indians signed Victor Martinez to, but Martinez wasn't arbitration eligible yet when he signed it, so there were still a couple of cheap years in there. Mauer is one of the whatever-it-takes guys that the team must keep around.
Mike Redmond - ($1,000,000) - Here is one of Terry Ryan's best signings, and the Twins were lucky to get him. If you remember, the team had an option on Henry Blanco's 2005 contract that they picked up. However, because Blanco played so much in 2004, he was able to opt out of the deal and signed with the Cubs. The Twins quickly signed Redmond two a two year deal and he has been everything a backup catcher should be. He has a good bat, although he is not a #3 hitter. He is good with the glove. And maybe most importantly, he accepts his role and is a great bench guy! I was very happy when the Twins announced that they had signed him to a two year extension
First Base
Justin Morneau - ($3,250,000) - In late May and very early June, I was definitely questioning myself when it came to my thoughts on what Justin Morneau was capable of. Fortunately, since June 8th, he was the best hitter in baseball. He not only became the first Twins hitter in 19 years to pass 30 homers, but he also was a great run producer knocking in 130 runs to tie Larry Walker for most RBI in a season by a Canadian-born player. Of course, Walker played in the rarified air of Coors Field. I think that the biggest surprise to many may have been that he hit .320 as well. If you followed his minor league numbers at all, it should not be surprising. He is a good all-around hitter, and he finally found his comfort zone. Defensively, he is not perfect, but he has made huge strides and I believe he is a slightly above average big league first baseman with the glove. As with Mauer, I believe that the Twins should lock Morneau up for four or five years. Because they are both above average for their positions, but Mauer's defense and being a catcher, probably mean that he should make a little bit more. So, my initial offer to Justin Morneau would be five years. It would be comprised of annual salaries of $3.25 million, $5.5 million, $7.25 million, $8 million and $9 million, through 2011. So that is five years and $33 million. Get it done!
Garrett Jones - ($330,000) - Jones may be a backup 1B option, but with Morneau on the roster, his job would be sometime DH, sometime lefty power bat off the bench. Jones will not hit for a lot of average. He would strike out a lot. But he would also have the ability to hit for a lot of power. He is an intimidating presence, but I could see him moving up and down to and from Rochester, along with guys like Glen Williams and Chris Heintz depending on the needs during certain stretches. In each case, we are again talking about league-minimum salary guys.
Second Base
Nick Punto - ($1.5 million) -As you can see, I don't think that Luis Castillo should be brought back. I am in no way saying that he had a bad year, but I do think that he is very replaceable, especially considering the $5.75 million he is owed next year. Castillo simply did not run balls out to first. I don't think that the Twins could get much for Castillo, but I do think that they could get a mid-level and a low-level prospect for him. You can see that my choice for Twins opening day 2B is Nick Punto. He really played pretty well much of the season for the Twins. Once he was given every day 3B duties, he went on a big hitting streak, and his defense was average at worst. However, as well as he played, his OPS was still just .725. That's not good for a 3B, but it would be solid for a 2B. You can not question Punto's effort. As SBG says, he should be fined every time that he dives head-first into first base. Does he not understand the he actually slows himself down when he does that? Punto did enough in 2006 to maintain an every day job heading into the 2006 season. However, I don't expect that he will duplicate his 2006 numbers, and if Alexi Casilla has a good first half at Rochester, I would hope he would get a shot with the Twins in late June.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez - ($10 million) - Here is where my team gets a little bit controversial, but I think that it is something that can be done. According to Cot's Contracts, A-Rod is owed another $108 million over the next four seasons. That's $27 million a year. When he came to the Yankees, the Rangers agreed to play $67 million of the remaining $179 million. So, the Yankees, in total, would have to pay A-Rod $112 million. The Yankees probably need to trade Alex Rodriguez after the offseason. It would be dumb for them, no matter what, but for his psyche and the team's well-being, it might be best for all parties. I know that the Angels may make more fiscal sense for a trade, but I think that Minnesota could make a lot of sense too. The small market may be exactly what he needs mentally. The turf infield may allow him to relax a bit more at 3B. He has always hit well in the Dome. But, when it comes to guys to hit in front of or behind him, if you were to put him after Mauer and before Morneau, that would be a dangerous middle-of-the-order. Cuddyer could drop to 6th. The Twins offense would go from middle of the pack, to potentially one of the top offenses in baseball. Despite a bad year defensively, Rodriguez is a gold glove caliber defender. If anything, he may work even harder to prove people wrong next year. What about his poor post-season performances the last couple of years? Well, to stay true to my I Love the Regular Season mentality, I think that Rodriguez could make the Twins even more competitive and get them to the playoffs. I am fully of the belief that the playoffs are too small of a sample size to take much out of it. So, if he can get the Twins to the playoffs, let's just see what happens. So, how do we do this trade? Well, first, the Yankees would have to give the Twins enough money so that the Twins would only have to pay about $9-10 million of his contract (4 years, $36-40 million commitment for the Twins). That is a lot of money, but for the value A-Rod gives to a team, it is a wise decision. However, for the Twins to get the Yankees to send A-Rod AND millions of dollars, the Twins would have to put together a strong package. I think it would cost one of (Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins), either (Matt Moses or David Winfree), Carlos Silva and at least one more pitching prospect, if not two. It's another case where, if it is even possible, the Twins need to look into it and try to be creative to make it happen.
Luis Rodriguez - ($360,000) - L-Rod showed that even when he doesn't play very often, he has good at bats when he does get an opportunity. He is solid, although unspectacular, with the glove at three infield positions. On a team where salaries start escalating quickly as this teams will, it is important to have plenty of near-minimum salary guys. Rodriguez seems happy with this role, and hopefully at least early in the season, Gardy will find a way to get him some at bats.
Shortstop
Jason Bartlett - ($375,000) - Another case where many of the bloggers proved to be right. Jason Bartlett was ready last year. The fact that he had to spent about two months in Rochester to improve his "Leadership" was a mistake that I wish the team would just admit. Once Bartlett came up, it was good that he got off to a fast start (otherwise Gardy may have found a way to not play him even after the Castro trade). He was able to keep his batting average above .300. He took good at bats. He showed a little less power than I thought he might. He won't be a home run hitter, but I do expect that he will get plenty of doubles. The biggest surprise was his defense. He made most of the routine plays, and he showed great range and a very strong arm. No, he did not play well in the field in the playoffs, but that should not detract from the year he had. Another great salary as well.
Left Field
Jason Kubel - ($400,000) - Jason Kubel needs to work this offseason in much the same manner as he did last winter. He needs to continue to build the strength in his knees, but he also needs to make sure that he gets enough rest for them too. I think that Kubel's bat is very important to the Twins. He may never hit for the power that Justin Morneau does, but we have all predicted that he could hit .310 with 15 homers or so. That is a nice bat in the back end of any lineup. Before the All-Star game, Kubel went on a tear. He hit for average and he showed great power. But when he came back from the break with sore knees, he hobbled the rest of the season and was never able to recapture that swing or the leg-strength necessary to generate it. I absolutely believe that Kubel should be penciled in as the team's opening day left fielder in 2007, and he needs to play every day.
Center Field
Torii Hunter - ($12 million) - This one may surprise a lot of people. However, if the Twins were to work a deal for Alex Rodriguez, I think that having a personality like Hunter would be very important to making that work. Hunter loves cameras and microphones. And, in reality, there is no immediate option that is ready to replace him in CF next year. That said, this should just be the pick up of his option. Because of the injuries, his age, his defensive position and effort and the turf, the Twins should not even consider a multi-year contract unless Hunter comes way down in his demands. Ideally, the Twins would pick up Hunter's option (something they need to determine this week) and find a way to trade him in a multi-team deal that would bring Carl Crawford to the Twins to be their CF for the next several years. As much as I don't believe that the last six weeks should alter the team's thinking on Hunter's option, I don't think that his misplay in Game 2 should affect it the other way. We know what Torii is as a player. We take the good. We take the bad. We take them both, and there we have Torii Hunter.
Right Field
Michael Cuddyer - ($3.5 million) - FINALLY! I felt like the Lone Ranger when it came to supporting Michael Cuddyer as a potential big-time player if only he got a real chance. As SBG pointed out, and I then recalled, Ron Gardenhire said on his radio show in late-April that Cuddyer could not be an every day player. Then a few injuries happened and Gardy was forced to play Cuddyer. He came through big and soon was moved to the clean up spot. Despite the lack of playing time in April, Cuddyer still ended the season with 24 homers and 109 RBI. Because of how he has been jerked around and moved from position to position and been considered a super-utility type player, Cuddyer deserves the accolades he is getting now. In his second year of arbitration, I also believe that he deserves to start getting paid. I would sign him to a four year deal, again to keep him with the Twins when their is a new stadium. I also think that the team can keep their 3-4-5 hitters together. I would start by offering him $3.5 million for 2007, followed by salaries of $5 million, $6 million and $7 million over the next three years. That's a four year, $21.5 million contract.
4th OF
Jason Tyner - ($500,000) - Jason Tyner is what he is. That isn't very good, but he is a guy that, despite his lack of walks, finds a way to put together quality at bats. He hit .300 this year which really masked his lack of getting on base. He has no power. He doesn't have a great arm, but it is adequate. Again, we are only looking for a guy that can play a couple of times a week, a guy who can play all three OF positions. We are not looking for a guy who should be considered as a DH option! He would have the get on base about 38% of the time to even have an OPS of .700. However, he is cheap. He can play all three positions. And, he deserves the roster spot because of his role with the 2006 Twins. I think that if Torii Hunter comes back, the team would be wise to give him a day off every tenth game or so.
5th OF
Josh Rabe - ($350,000) - I was thrilled when Josh Rabe finally got a big league opportunity this season after spending parts of seven seasons in the Twins minor league system. Like Tyner, Rabe is not a prospect. He is older than a prospect. That is why he would be great for a 5th OF role. He can hit. He has shown that in his minor league career. He even had a lot of quality big league at bats. Because of his age and history, he would likely be thrilled to be a big league 5th outfielder. He could also spell Jason Kubel in LF against tough lefties.
Designated Hitter
Phil Nevin - ($3 million)- I have never been one to believe that a team needs a designated Designated Hitter. However, any team that has to play Jason Tyner at DH in the playoffs could use a serious upgrade! Although he didn't play very often with the Twins and only had one home run, Nevin did hit 22 homers in 129 games in 2006. Despite his .239 overall batting average, he did get on base over 32% of the time. He will be 36 years old in 2007. He did say that he enjoyed playing with this Twins team. He showed a willingness to be a part of the team rather than needing to be a star. I would be willing to offer him one year at $3 million. No more years. No more dollars. If he's not willing to do that, I would strongly consider picking up Rondell White's contract as long as he says that mentally he could hit while DHing!
Pitchers (11)
Starting Pitchers (5)
Johan Santana - ($12 million) - Best pitcher in baseball for the third straight year. His salary jumps a lot this year, but he is worth it. As a matter of fact, I would add two years to his current contract. He could become a free agent after the 2008 season. He has shown to be a very healthy pitcher and the Twins have taken care of him. I would guess that those two years would cost about $29-30 million.
Francisco Liriano - ($400,000) - The biggest X-Factor for the Minnesota Twins in 2007 and beyond. How will his elbow and shoulder come back in 2007? Will he have some exploratory surgery and will he need to miss any time because of it? When he was healthy and starting, he was the best pitcher in baseball. Yes, even better than Johan Santana. That is a guy that you take care of. You make sure that he is able to pitch again, and hopefully at that level. As of now, I am going to go under the assumption that he will be healthy in 2007.
Boof Bonser - ($360,000) - At Twins Fest and other places, the Twins coaching staff kept saying that the 5th starter job in 2006 was going to be between Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. I was happy that they kept mentioning Bonser's name, but in reality, he had no shot at starting the season with the Twins. However, where would the Twins have been without Bonser's pitching in August and September? He became the team's Game 2 starter in the ALDS, and it was earned! He did enough in my mind to be in the Twins opening day rotation.
Jeff Suppan/Cory Lidle - ($4 million) - This spot is based on a couple of criteria. I do think that the Twins should let Carlos Silva walk as a free agent and not pick up his 2007 option. I think that having another veteran starter would be a positive. As good as Liriano was, reality tells us the health is a question with him. Bonser deserves the opening day roster spot, but reality tells us that he is still young. These are two guys that I would target based on some free agent lists I have seen. Is either pitcher great? No. However, both are guys that throw strikes, and guys that know who they are as pitchers. With Lidle, I would insist on a one year deal, and preferably only $3 million. With Suppan, I would want to offer a one year contract at $4 million. I would offer a team option for 2008 at $4.5 million that would vest at 200 innings. Pitching depth and insurance is important as the Twins learned this year. If these guys are not willing to sign for the money or the years, the Twins can go very young in their rotation and shouldn't feel bad doing so.
Scott Baker - ($350,000) - This may be another choice that people can disagree with, and I don't blame them. Scott Baker has shown that he does not need any more time in Rochester. In my opinion, Matt Garza, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey should all start the season at Rochester as each probably could use a couple more months of seasoning. I watched Baker come off the mound seemingly every inning. He looked hesitant, nervous, almost scared. That isn't a good mentality for any pitcher. I think that he could put up very good numbers in the big leagues if he is just given the chance to be the starter and not have to look over his shoulder.
Left-Handed Relief Pitchers (1)
Dennys Reyes - ($1 million) - In 66 games, Reyes had an ERA of just 0.89, and that was legit. It wasn't as if he allowed inherited runners to score either. It was a truly amazing season for the lefty. Reyes has been in the Major Leagues every year since 1997, but he has never been confused with being good. So to do what he did in 2006 in incredible. It also is a bit alarming to think that he will be able to come anywhere near those numbers again. But again, he deserves the opportunity to see if he can do it, and at two years and $2 million, the risk is quite low.
Right-Handed Relief Pitchers (4)
Jesse Crain - ($400,000) - Crain was not the same pitcher in 2006 as he was in 2005. In 2005, he went 12-5 with a 2.71 ERA. This year, he was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Last year, he couldn't strike out anyone. This year, he was able to strike enough out. Last year, opponents didn't hit him. This year, he allowed more hits than innings pitched. His numbers in the early months were always thrown off by a couple of really bad outings, but for the most part, he was good again all year. He is still cheap, and he has proven he can get hitters out in the 7th inning.
Pat Neshek - ($350,000) - Neshek would appear to be the new 8th inning guy. He was amazing in his half-season at Rochester. He was more than ready when he came up to the Twins as well. He has shown an ability to get both righties and lefties out, although lefties did hit for some power against him. His delivery was able to throw hitters off, and maybe capture their attention. However, a 93-94 mph fastball and a couple of sliders at 85-87 also make him tough to hit. If he could master the changeup during the offseason, he might be completely unhittable.
Matt Guerrier - ($385,000) - Finally he got that first career win! That had to be a relief. Guerrier has pitched in long relief the last two years, and he has done very well. A good fastball and a great curveball, coupled with very good control, makes for a very good reliever. I think that Guerrier is more than ready for some more high leverage situations, and I would think that next year he will start getting them.
Willie Eyre - ($345,000) - Willie Eyre really came on well in the second half of the season. When he got more frequent opportunities, he did very well. He has a couple of pitches with a lot of movement. I think that this roster spot need to be able to give 3-4 innings once in awhile if necessary, and Eyre is able to do that. Kevin Cameron made a very strong impression on the Twins in spring training. He had a solid, steady season with Rochester this year. I think that he will be given a shot to make the roster in this role. Another guy to watch might be JD Durbin who will be out of options next spring.
Closer (1)
Joe Nathan - ($5.25 million) - A year ago, I was thinking that the Twins should consider dealing Nathan as he was starting to get expensive. I think that the Twins could get a top-level prospect and a few mid-level prospects for him. However, I now am of the opinion that Nathan is the best closer in baseball. At $5.25 million next year, he is not overpaid relative to the other closers. He is as good as it gets. Now Gardy just needs to find a way to use him in more innings.
SUMMARY
So, there you have it, my look at a potential 2007 roster. If you add up those contracts, it comes to under $64.905 million. Here is a breakdown of the salaries:Hitters (14) - $40.065 million
Starters (5) - $17.11 million
Relievers (5) - $2.48 million
Closer (1) - $5.25 million
All said, we’ve got a payroll of $64.905 million, just a bit more than last season's. What have we done? Well, we picked up Torii Hunter's option, and declined Carlos Silva's. We made one huge trade to acquire the power hitting 3B that the team needs. We then moved our 3B to 2B and traded Castillo for prospects.
You may be asking yourself, what would the possible lineups look like? Well here are a couple of attempts, one against righties and one against lefties:
Every Day Lineup (the lefties can hit lefties)
2B -Nick Punto
C - Joe Mauer
3B -Alex Rodriguez
1B - Justin Morneau
RF - Michael CuddyerCF - Torii Hunter
LF - Jason Kubel
DH - Phil Nevin
SS - Jason Bartlett
Who’s Gone??
Rondell White - The Twins don't need to pick up his option. If Nevin isn't willing to sign a fair deal, the Twins should consider bringing him back. He did hit well in the season's second half. He would need to learn to DH though.
Carlos Silva - He had a couple of decent starts in September, but that shouldn't blind management from what he was all year. Even when he was "successful" in previous season's, he was very hittable. Maybe he comes back with that sinker and gets lots of ground balls. The fact that he gave up so many homers is alarming for a sinker ball pitcher. His asking out of a few games could not have made his teammates very happy! But, the Twins would be wise to just let him go.
Brad Radke - The Twins greatest pitcher of all-time (at least for a couple more years when Johan will pass him). Radke spent a dozen seasons with the Twins, and he will be retiring. Hopefully he will enjoy his retirement and the Twins will recognize him by putting him into their Hall of Fame.
Luis Castillo - Had a solid, unspectacular season with the Twins. Lack of effort down the 1B line got a bit tiring, but he go on at a decent pace. To add the players I would like to add, some salary must come off the book. To keep Nick Punto in the starting lineup, someone needs to move.
Juan Rincon - He was the top set up man in baseball the previous two seasons. However, it was just not a good month for Rincon in September. He struggled with his control, falling behind hitters, and then he would throw too many strikes and get hit. He is a very good pitcher, and I think that he could get the Twins a very good prospect from a team needing a closer or wanting to bolster its bullpen. In arbitration this year, Rincon would likely get a little more than $2 million.
Who’s Next??
Glen Perkins - The former Gopher lefty was the Twins second first round pick in 2004. He struggled at New Britain most of the year although his record is worse than his numbers should tell us. I pitched great for Rochester in late season duty. He was added to the playoff roster. In the playoff game he pitched, I saw him hit 95 mph, something that I didn't think that he was capable of. Very impressive, but needs more AAA time before he's ready. I actually think that the same can be said for Matt Garza.
Alex Romero - Romero had an up and down season this year. He started in Rochester, but he was quickly sent back to New Britain where he dominated. He moved back up to Rochester and did hit for some average. He needs another year at Rochester, but I still contend that given an opportunity he could succeed.
Denard Span - Of course, many think that he is the heir apparent to Torii Hunter in the Twins OF. He had a solid 2006 season. He has little power and needs to be a better base stealer. Truth is, he needs a full year at Rochester, at least. Trent Oeltjen is another option.
Kevin Slowey - As impressive as Matt Garza was all year, Kevin Slowey was almost as good. Not blessed with the rocket arm that Garza is, Slowey uses his poise an pinpoint control to dominate hitters. He started at Ft. Myers, moved up to New Britain, pitched for Team USA and beat Cuba in Havana in front of 45,000 fans, and won a playoff game for Rochester. A great year, and he is the type who could be overlooked throughout a very long career.
Alexi Casilla - The Twins surprised many at the end of July they purchased Casilla's contract from New Britain. He hit all year, got on base with great at bats. He even showed a little extra base hit pop. He stole 50 bases on the year. I think he's close. I think a half-year in New Britain or Rochester and he will be ready to play 2B and lead off for the Twins.
Anthony Swarzak - There always seems to be one pitcher each season who pitches great and gets up to the big leagues. My gut tells me that Swarzak is ready to burst onto the season. He had a very strong season with Ft. Myers this year, and he could move through New Britain somewhat quickly. The Twins pitching depth allows them to be more patient.
So there you have it, my choices to be on the 2007 Minnesota Twins rosters, who won’t be back, and what other minor leaguers may get an opportunity to contribute. As I’ve mentioned before though, I really don’t envy the job that Terry Ryan has in front of him again this winter. Again, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
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