Wednesday October 8, 2003

ALCS PREVIEW (YANKEES/RED SOX)

NLCS GAME 1 (MARLINS 9, CUBS 8)

WILD PREVIEW

As I mentioned yesterday, today I will be getting some much needed help! This writing something every day is so much more difficult than I ever imagined. So, from time to time, especially in baseball’s offseason, I may have other people write up some postings. Maybe the writer will be someone from another site. Maybe it’ll be a friend who just has something to say. Maybe it’ll be some frequent reader of the website who wants a chance to write something.  I don’t know what the process will be for this, but we’ll figure it out as we go. So, that leads us to today’s guest columnist.

Kirk Beller refers to himself as “a desk jockey and Minnesota native who currently resides in Fargo, ND as an unwitting hostage of the Peace Garden State.”  He's “a Twins junkie, avid SethSpeaks reader, and a constant annoyance to Seth”. (NOTE – Kirk’s words… NOT Seth’s!)  

Kirk and I went to high school together in Perham, MN. I never realized until he sent me an e-mail through this website just how big a baseball fan he was, which is really unfortunate. However, Kirk is also a huge hockey fan. So, I asked him if he might be interested in writing up a preview to the Minnesota Wild season, and thankfully, he was willing to. I think he did a great and thorough job. If you have any questions or comments you would like to address to Kirk, just send me an e-mail, and I will be sure he gets them.  So, without further ado, here is Kirk Beller’s preview of the 2003-04 Minnesota Wild season, starting with a brief recap of last season.

2002-03 Season Recap

The 02-03 season was the third in the NHL for the Minnesota Wild.  For the better part of the year, the Wild maintained a small lead in the Western Conference’s Northwest Division, before being passed by the Colorado Avalanche and the eventual division champions, the Vancouver Canucks.  The Wild did manage to survive a second-half scoring drought by the team’s only real star, Marian Gaborik, and were able to lock up the 6^th seed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  The magical run that followed has been well documented:  a dramatic game-seven goal by Andrew Brunette on Patrick Roy in overtime propelled the Wild to the second round after trailing in the series 3-1 (and propelled Roy into retirement).  This was followed by a another game-seven victory over the Vancouver Canucks, making the Wild the first team in NHL history to rally to win two series in the same postseason after trailing three games to one.

The playoff run ended in a four game sweep at the hands of Jean-Sebastien Giguere and the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, marking the second time in less than a year that a Minnesota team was knocked out of the playoffs by a team from Anaheim. 

Considering the age of the franchise and the level of talent currently on the roster, such a deep playoff run can only be considered a resounding success. 

Team Strengths

Undoubtedly, the success of last year’s team can be traced to the organization’s executives and their philosophy on team-building.  General Manager Doug Risebrough has followed through on the team’s “build-a-contender over a period of years” theory, rather than jumping into the free-agent fray in an attempt to “win now” with a patched-together group of players.  The resulting team chemistry is partially due to his roster decisions. 

Coach Jacques Lemaire deserves the lion’s share of the credit in the chemistry department, however.  He has instituted a higher speed version of the trap that he used in his previous coaching stint in New Jersey.   While this system is usually very unpopular among players--Mario Lemieux once criticized the Wild after a loss in Minnesota as “playing a style of hockey we’re not trying to promote”--Lemaire has managed to get an incredible amount of buy-in to this system from his team, largely because of the success the Wild has seen under it.  The fact that Lemaire has his name on the Stanley Cup nine times probably doesn’t hurt matters either.  Lemaire is regarded as a real teacher of the game who demands solid two-way play from all of his players.  The commitment on the part of players to his system can best be summed up in a quote from Vancouver GM Brian Burke which was repeated ad nauseum during last year’s playoff run:  “[The Wild] is not a hockey team, it is a cult.”  Cult or no, the rest of the league recognized his efforts by selecting him for the Jack Adams award for coach of the year. 

On the ice, the Wild have just one player you need to know; after being selected number three overall out of the Slovak Republic in the Wild’s entry draft, Marian Gaborik has gradually elevated his game in each of his three seasons.  He was on pace for a 50-goal season last year when he stalled out after being named Minnesota’s first ever All-Star selection.  He remedied this in the playoffs however, when he registered 17 points over the Wild’s 18-game run.  He’s fast, he’s a sniper, and under Lemaire he has developed into a two-way player.  This year could very well be the year that he takes the step to stardom. 

2002 first-rounder (#8 overall) Pierre-Marc Bouchard joined the club for the second half of last season, and was able to log some ice-time during the playoff run.  That can only be a plus for a player who won’t see his 20^th birthday until April. 

Team Weaknesses

The downside to the Gaborik story is that he hasn’t yet signed a contract with the Wild and is unlikely to be in uniform with them when the team opens the season (tonight on ESPN) in Chicago.  The same goes for last year’s biggest surprise (and player with the name that is most fun to say) Pascal Dupuis.  Dupuis put up 48 points over the ‘02-’03 season. 

That Dupuis is mentioned in the same breath as Gaborik should say something about the roster.  It’s a team full of overachievers and cast-offs that have found new life under Lemaire.  While overachieving is a good thing, it does mean that there are times that this club is simply going to be out-talented on the ice.  Over the course of the season, there will be a fair number of blowouts of the Wild interspersed among the 2-1 and 1-0 wins.  The current talent shortage simply leaves this team with no room for error. 

Then there is the down-side to Lemaire: he sports one of the most ridiculous hairstyles imaginable.  That comb-over is absolutely unforgivable. 

Player Movement

The offseason saw the Wild severing ties with last year’s free-agent addition, center Cliff Ronning.  Ronning added a veteran presence to a lineup of raw players.  His production fell once the team was in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and ultimately he was a healthy scratch in a few of the games.  As of the end of September, Ronning had not signed on with another club, so a return, though unlikely, is still possible. 

The only notable free-agent acquisition by the Wild was RW Alexandre Daigle.  Daigle is notable not so much for his skills, as he is for the fact that his career has been regarded by most as a failure up to this point.  After being drafted number one overall by Ottawa in 1993, Daigle has bounced around the league without ever establishing himself as the player the Senators hoped they were getting.  As noted before, Lemaire has engineered turn-arounds with less-talented players in the past; Daigle could turn out to be a diamond in the rough.  

Draft/Minors

The Wild made two of the draft’s most controversial picks.  In the first round, with the 20^th overall pick, they selected Brent Burns out of Brampton of the Ontario Hockey League.  Not originally listed in the top 100 of NHL Central Scouting’s reports, Burns moved up most teams’ draft boards after a 40 point season with Brampton.  Though regarded as a stretch pick by most, the Wild apparently liked what they saw in training camp enough to keep Burns in St. Paul to start the season.

In the second round, the Wild may have gotten the steal of the draft.  Regarded by most clubs as a top-five talent, Patrick O’Sullivan fell all the way to the late second round because of concerns over potential personal problems.  O’Sullivan’s feud with an abusive, manipulative father, who at one point beat his son and left him on his grandmother’s lawn, left most teams wary of taking the talented center.  By all accounts O’Sullivan impressed the Wild’s coaches and management during the pre-season before being sent back to Mississauga, his club in the OHL.  Assuming that he doesn’t implode, O’Sullivan could be a huge addition to this club in the future, and with the 56^th pick, the Wild risked virtually nothing to get him.  This was simply a great selection.

At the same time that the Wild were making their playoff run, their AHL affiliate, the Houston Aeros made a successful run at the Calder Cup, which is awarded to the league champions.  This surely bodes well for the future of Wild. 

2003-04 Season Preview

Where can the Wild be expected to finish this season?  Most likely riding the line between getting into or being left out of the playoffs.  This is a club that, despite a very successful third year of existence, doesn’t have the talent to compete with the perennial powers in the NHL.  As such, they will have to continue to grind out wins in close-scoring games and scrap for every possible goal. 

Expect to see the three dominant teams in the West over the last 10 years, the Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, and Colorado Avalanche, finish in the top three spots.  Along with those teams, it can be expected that Vancouver and St. Louis will slip into the next two seeds, leaving only three playoff spots for the rest of the conference.  The Wild certainly have a shot at one of these spots, and a chance to make a playoff run similar to last year’s. However, a much more likely scenario has the Wild making the playoffs and being eliminated in the first round, or missing them entirely.  While fans of the team should prepare themselves for that eventuality, they should keep in mind that this is a team that should be a perennial playoff club by 2005.

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

NEW YORK YANKEES vs. BOSTON RED SOX

You didn’t think I would go a whole day without writing anything, did you?

Hmmm… How do we counter the East Coast Media Bias on this series???  How do we continue to argue the point that small market teams can still compete with New York and Boston? How do people outside of the Northeast United States get at all excited about this series?

Well, let me try to encourage you. First, baseball fans, it’s still baseball. The game itself doesn’t change just because it’s played by teams with players who make more in a season than some small countries do in a year. And remember, the game is about the players and the fans, not the bankrolls anyway!

So, let’s talk baseball, not economics. New York Yankees. Boston Red Sox. Who will win?  Let’s take a look at the position-by-position comparisons of the two teams. (Remember, the longer the arrow, the more of an advantage I would give to that particular team.)

Just from this, you can see that I feel that the Yankees have a slight advantage overall, but more of an advantage when it comes to starting pitching. And, as well all know, starting pitching is what matters. Both teams can hit, and maybe even the Red Sox would have an advantage offensively.

I really like both shortstops. They’re both great on the field, and are great off the field. They’re fun and interesting to listen to, have an appreciation for baseball’s history, and both handle themselves with class and dignity. I really hope Johnny Damon doesn’t have to miss too much time due to his concussion.

I think the Yankees have the advantage at Yankees Stadium. I think that with Pedro pitching Game 3 gives the Red Sox the advantage that game. But, I see Game 4 and 5 going to the Yankees. So there you have it.

Series Prediction – Yankees in 5 games.

For far more indepth, statistically based predictions, I would encourage everyone to check out Aaron’s Baseball Blog and the Universal Baseball Blog.

NLCS GAME 1 (MARLINS 9, CUBS 8)

What a game!  Yesterday, I wrote that if the Marlins wanted any chance in this series, they had to win Game 1. With Mark Prior and Kerry Wood looming in Games 2 and 3, last night was a big game for the Marlins. I thought it would be a pretty good pitching matchup, with Josh Beckett and Carlos Zambrano pitching. Beckett gave up 4 runs in the first inning, including a 2 run home run to Moises Alou. Zambrano struggled early too. In the third inning, Zambrano gave up the long ball. Ivan Rodriguez knocked out a 3-run homer. Miguel Cabrera and Juan Encarnacion went back-to-back later in the inning, giving the Marlins a 5-4 lead.  Both pitchers settled down some until the 6^th inning. Zambrano gave up a single run in the top half of the inning. But, in the bottom half, the Cubs Alex Gonzalez hit a 2 run homer to tie the game at 6. The bullpens took over at that point and there was no more scoring, until the 9^th inning. In the top half, Pudge Rodriguez continued his clutch hitting! He knocked in two runs with a single to right field to give the Marlins the 8-6 lead. The Marlins brought in their closer, Ugueth Urbina, to close the deal. But with 2 outs and a runner on base, Sammy Sosa came to the plate. He came through, drilling a 2-run shot over the left field fence and onto Waveland Avenue! It sent the game into overtime!  Nothing happened, until the top of the 11^th, when the Marlins sent their All-Star 3B, Mike Lowell, to the plate as a pinch hitter. Lowell was having an MVP-type season before being hit by a pitch and breaking a bone in his hand. He is on the playoff roster, but is coming off the bench because of the outstanding play of Miguel Cabrera. Well, having him coming off the bench paid off last night. He led off the 11^th with a solo home run to dead center. It proved to be the game-winner. The Marlins won the game they so desperately needed, taking the 1-0 series lead.

So, what will happen tonight? Brad Penny is pitching for the Marlins. Mark Prior will be pitching for the Cubs. Advantage – Cubs… Prediction – Cubs 4, Marlins 0.

Well, that’s it for today. Again, I’d love to thank Kirk Beller for helping me out with his Minnesota Wild preview. Again, if you have any questions or comments about it, please, just send me an e-mail and I will be sure he sees it! Also, if you would like to comment on my prediction for the ALCS, or anything else baseball, e-mail me, and I’ll be sure to get back to you!

Back to Archives           Home