Monday,
October 4, 2010
Head or Heart?
Twins/Yankees – Here we go again!
On Sunday night, I was a guest on MLB Roadtrip
on XM 175/Sirius 210 with host Mike Ferrin.
Then I was joined by Travis Aune and Fanatic Jack on this week’s
SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota Twins podcast. It was fun to look back at the
regular season and ahead to the playoffs. Starting now, the show will be on
Tuesday nights at 10:00 throughout the offseason.
Good morning everyone! Well, the 2010 regular season has come to an end.
The Twins lost 2-1 to the Blue Jays to fall to 94-68 on the season. They
finished 26 games over .500 and six games ahead of the Chicago White Sox in the
AL Central. The Tampa Bay Rays won home field advantage throughout the ALCS by
having the league’s best record at 96-66. The Yankees finished with the second
best record in the AL at 95-67 and are the Wild Card. The Twins have the
third-best record and will have the #2 seed. The Texas Rangers finished at
90-72 to win the AL West.
The Twins will have home field advantage against the Yankees in the ALDS.
Games 1 and 2 will be at Target Field with Games 3 and (potentially) 4 in
Yankees Stadium. If a Game 5 is necessary, it would be back at Target Field. On
the season, the Twins went 53-28 at Target Field and 41-38 on the road.
Meanwhile, the Yankees went 43-38 on the road and 52-29 at Yankees Stadium.
Today, I’ll line up for you the Yankees/Twins matchup, position by
position. Of course, on some level, this is a silly exercise as there will
never be a 2B versus 2B matchup. But at this point, it’s just fun to get a
sense of what positions the Twins have advantages or disadvantages. In the end,
you can decide what it means, if anything.
CATCHER
Twins – Joe Mauer
- .327/.402/.467 (.869) with 42 doubles, 9 HR and 75 RBI
Yankees – Jorge Posada -
.250/.358/.458 (.816) with 23 doubles, 18 HR and 57 RBI
Mauer is one of the
best players in baseball, in the prime of his career. He is playing well
offensively and defensively. Posada was a tremendous hitting catcher for a lot
of years. He is still a very good hitter, but he is someone that even the Twins
should be able to run against. (+3)
FIRST
BASE
Twins – Michael Cuddyer - .271/.336/.418 (.754) with 37 doubles, 14 HR and
81 RBI
Yankees – Mark Teixeira -
.258/.366/.484 (.850) with 36 doubles, 33 HR and 108 RBI
The notion that Cuddyer
is an MVP candidate for the Twins is silly, but his versatility in the field,
right-handed bat in the middle of the order and leader in the clubhouse and as
a voice. Teixeira has had a down season by his standards, but I encourage you
to take another look at his numbers. And recall that not only is he a Gold
Glove winning first baseman, but he is also a very good defensive first
baseman. (-3)
SECOND
BASE
Twins – Orlando Hudson -
.267/.337/.372 (.709) with 24 doubles, 6 HR and 37 RBI
Yankees – Robinson Cano -
.320/.382/.535 (.917) with 41 doubles, 29 HR and 108 RBI
In the season’s first half, Orlando
Hudson did everything the Twins had hoped. He admirably filled the #2 spot in
the Twins batting order and at second base. He is statistically at the top of
the list defensively at 2B. He really struggled in the second half though. A
very good argument could be made that he should be the AL MVP this year. He has
done it all in the middle of the Yankees lineup and worked to greatly improve
his defense. (-5)
THIRD
BASE
Twins – Danny Valencia -
.314/.354/.453 (.807) with 18 doubles, 7 HR and 40 RBI
Yankees – Alex Rodriguez -
.270/.341/.508 (.848) with 29 doubles, 30 HR and 124 RBI
Valencia was ten years old when Alex
Rodriguez made his first postseason appearance. Now, he will be playing against
the Miami native. Valencia has been everything that the Twins and their fans
could have wanted, and more. He is a clear top three candidate for the AL
Rookie of the Year. Rodriguez has over 600 career home runs and has experienced
a lot of success during his career, including in the postseason. A-Rod’s
numbers are down across the board, yet he remains a very productive hitter.
(-2)
SHORTSTOP
Twins – JJ Hardy - .269/.320/.396
(.716) with 19 doubles, 6 HR and 38 RBI
Yankees – Derek Jeter -
.259/.340/.369 (.709) with 30 doubles, 10 HR and 66 RBI
Take away the games that Hardy played in
between DL stints, when his wrist was still not healthy, and his numbers would
look significantly better. Jeter has had a very down year for himself, and yet
we will spend the entire Yankees postseason listening to how that means nothing
because he’s a great, clutch hitter in October. Defensively, there is no
comparison, Hardy is much better. (0)
LEFT
FIELD
Twins – Delmon
Young - .299/.334/.495 (.829) with 46 doubles, 21 HR and 112 RBI
Yankees – Brett Gardner -
.275/.383/.377 (.760) with 19 doubles, 5 HR and 47 RBI
These two are greatly different types of
players, so the comparison is not great. Gardner is a slap hitter who takes
pitches, gets on base and steals a lot of bases (47) while playing very good
defense. Young is an extra base machine, a run producer who is against taking
pitches and plays some really bad defense. (+1)
CENTER
FIELD
Twins – Denard
Span - .266/.333/.427 (.683) with 24 doubles, 3 HR and 58 RBI
Yankees – Curtis Granderson - .247/.325/.469 (.794) with 17 doubles, 24 HR
and 67 RBI
Granderson is a good home
run hitter. Other than that, Span is better in most categories. Defensively, Granderson makes Span look like a Gold Glove winner. Span’s
ability to put together good at bats against left-handed pitching make him a
little better all around, and yet, Span has had a year that did not come close
to what he did his first two seasons. (-1)
RIGHT
FIELD
Twins – Jason Kubel
- .250/.324/.427 (.751) with 23 doubles, 21 HR and 92 RBI
Yankees – Nick Swisher -
.288/.358/.506 (.864) with 33 doubles, 28 HR and 88 RBI
In 2009, Kubel
hit .300 with 100+ RBI. It was a breakout year. Unfortunately, he took a step
backward in 2010. Kubel had solid power numbers, but
overall it was a frustrating season. Swisher had a really strong season for the
Yankees in 2010. He hit for average, got on base at a great clip, and posted a
ton of extra base hits. Defensively, neither is going to be winning awards, but
play a solid defense. (-2)
DESIGNATED
HITTER
Twins – Jim Thome
- .280/.410/.625 (1.035) with 16 doubles, 25 HR and 59 RBI
Yankees – Marcus Thames -
.288/.352/.495 (.847) with 7 doubles, 12 HR and 33 RBI
Jim Thome has
done wonders for the Twins in 2010. He has been forced to play more than
anticipated due to the Justin Morneau injury, and he
came through. Thames and Lance Berkman will do most
of the DHing, although we could see Austin Kearns as
well.
Twins – Drew Butera,
Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto,
Matt Tolbert, Jason Repko
Yankees – Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, Ramiro Pena, Francisco Cervelli,
For Twins fans, you just have to hope
that there aren’t any more injuries to starters because this is about as weak a
bench as possible. Yes, they want speed to pinch run, but wouldn’t it be nice
to have a bat off the bench to pinch hit for a pinch runner? I guess not. Yikes!! Let’s go, Training Staff!!
GAME 1 STARTERS
Twins – Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .252 BAA)
Yankees – CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .239 BAA)
Liriano has had a
really good year, but Sabathia has again been
tremendous and durable. Yes, he gets some run support with the Yankees, but he
has really good peripherals too. Liriano has that
first inning issue, as well as needs to be calmed down frequently throughout
the game. Sabathia will be cool. (-2)
GAME 2
STARTERS
Twins – Carl Pavano
(17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .266 BAA)
Yankees – Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19
ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .244 BAA)
Pavano was tremendous
most of the season for the Twins, and despite hit recent struggles, he has
shown Twins fans the value of having a crafty veteran, capable of pitching
successfully while pitching to contact. Hughes was terrific in the first half,
but he has really struggled in the second half. So, aside from an extra win for
Hughes, Pavano has been better overall. (-1)
GAME 3 STARTER
Twins – Brian Duensing
(10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .247 BAA)
Yankees – Andy Pettitte
(11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .257 BAA)
Duensing was arguably
the Twins best pitcher in the second half, but he has really fought control
problems his last few starts. And now came this
tightness in his arm situation which has many nervous. Pettitte
has certainly pitched well in a ton of playoff games and has the Twins number,
but he is less than 100% as well. This should be a very good matchup.
GAME 4 STARTER
Twins – Nick Blackburn (10-12,
5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .306 BAA)
Yankees – CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .239 BAA)
The Twins will not push Liriano, so it would shock me if, regardless of the
situation, Nick Blackburn was not the Game 4 starter. Since his return from
AAA, he has been terrific. With AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez both pitching so
poorly, and the fact that the Yankees would not use Ivan Nova in an elimination
game, it is likely that Sabathia would have to be
pushed ahead a day from his normal rest.
GAME
5 STARTER
Twins – Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .252 BAA)
Yankees – Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19
ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .244 BAA)
So, if it came to it, the Twins would
send Liriano with full rest to the mound against
Hughes on short rest. Liriano has struggled some of
late, but not as much as Hughes has.
CLOSER
Twins – Matt Capps
Yankees – Mariano Rivera
Rivera remains baseball’s best, most
intimidating closer. Capps is good for a couple of base runners per outing, but
he has typically been successful. Clearly the advantage here is with the
Yankees.
BULLPEN
Twins – Brian Fuentes, Jesse
Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares,
Jon Rauch, Scott Baker
Yankees – Joba
Chamberlain, Kerry Wood, Damaso Marte,
David Robertson, Chad Gaudin
The Twins may not have the shut-down
types in the bullpen, but they have terrific depth to get the ball to their
closer. The Twins depth is definitely an advantage.
SUMMARY
So, there you have it, a look at the Twins/Yankees series and all of the
players that could be counted upon to contribute to their team’s efforts. The most
important thing to remember about all of the above, all of the regular season
numbers, is that they mean nothing. The playoffs are a crap shoot. Anything can
happen in a Best of Five series. No-hit #9 hitters can play hero for three or
four games. Starts can go three games without a big hit. You just never know.
And that’s what makes it equal parts fun and frustrating.
My head tells me that the Yankees have enough offensive weapons to
overcome the Twins pitching depth and strength. This is still a tremendously
talented team who won the World Series just one year ago. They have the
advantage at most of the positions. Due to Target Field’s revenue streams, the
Twins have been able to add payroll as needed and increase payroll. They have
added significant pieces. They easily won their division and got significant
rest of their key personnel who needed it.
I will say: Twins in Four Games.
So, what do you think? Where do the Twins have advantages? Can the Twins
overcome the mystique of the Yankees in the playoffs? It will be fun to watch. It’s your turn. What
are your predictions? Who wins the series? Why? And, what will the storylines
be? Leave
your comments here.