New Page 1

Good Morning! Well, Joe Mays got lit up, but he still had a chance for a Win. Then Travis Bowyer got roughed up, bad, and the Twins couldn't come back again. I will share a couple more thoughts on the Twins, discuss the Vikings and post our NFL "Expert" Picks for Week 4. Hope you have a great day, and enjoy your weekend!

This week, I have been looking at what I consider my Top 50 Twins prospects. After looking at Prospect 36-50 on Tuesday, I looked at my selections for Prospect #21-35 yesterday. Yesterday, I announced my picks for #11-20. And finally today we are there. I will announce my Top 10 Twins Prospects.

If you have any questions or comments on any of these players or their rankings, I would love to hear your thoughts. Also, Monday, I would like to post a mailbag of any thoughts you may have on my Top 10 Twins Prospects of your thoughts on these lists. If you have thoughts, or if you have a Top 10, 20, 30, or 50 Prospect list of your own, I would love to see it and share it with other Twins fans, so please e-mail me.

By the way, if you want to read some of my thoughts on how I go about ranking these players, click here:

Before we get to the Top 10, let's got caught up on Numbers 50-11. For more detail, be sure to check it out here (36-50) , here (21-35) and here (11-20).

#50 – Josh Rabe – OF – 26

#49 – JR Taylor – SS – 23

#48 – Justin Olson – RHP – 25

#47 – Brock Peterson – 1B – 21

#46 – Erik Lis – 1B – 21

#45 – Scott Tyler – RHP – 23

#44 – Ricky Barrett – LHP – 24

#43 – Adam Hawes – RHP – 22

#42 – Colby Miller – RHP – 23

#41 – Johnny Woodard – 1B – 21

#40 – Kevin West – OF – 25

#39 – Deacon Burns – OF – 22

#38 – Jason Miller – LH RP – 23

#37 – Drew Thompson – SS – 18

#36 – Danny Matienzo – DH – 25

#35 – Brian Duensing – LHP – 22

#34 – Kyle Aselton – LHP – 22

#33 – Henry Sanchez – 1B – 18

#32 – Alexander Smit – LHP – 19

#31 – Paul Kelly – SS/2B – 18

#30 – Jose Mijares – LHP – 20

#29 – Luis Maza – 2B/3B – 25

#28 – Errol Simonitsch – LHP – 23

#27 – Trent Oeltjen – OF – 22

#26 – Pat Neshek – RH RP – 25

#25 – Garrett Jones – 1B – 24

#24 – Doug Deeds – OF – 23

#23 – Ryan Mullins – LHP – 21

#22 – JD Durbin – RHP – 23

#21 – Eduardo Morlan – RHP – 19

#20 – David Winfree – 3B – 20

#19 – Juan Portes – 2B/LF – 19

#18 – Matt Garza – RHP – 21

#17 – Boof Bonser – RHP – 23

#16 – Kyle Waldrop – RHP – 19

#15 – Justin Jones – LHP – 20

#14 – Glen Perkins – LHP – 22

#13 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 19

#12 – Nick Blackburn – RHP – 23

#11 – Travis Bowyer – RH RP – 24

And here they are, The TOP TEN TWINS PROSPECTS:

#10 – Adam Harben – RHP – 22

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 15th round pick in 2002 out of Westark Community College

While three other Miracle starters were promoted to New Britain, Harben spent the entire season at Fort Myers. He just went about his business and had a very solid year. In 25 starts, he was 10-5 with a very impressive 2.66 ERA. In 135.1 innings, he struck out 119. The problem Harben has had throughout his brief career has been with control. This year, he walked 62 hitters. His BB/9 in his three full minor league seasons have been 3.6, 4.3 and 4.1 this year. Not horrible, but certainly something that should be corrected for him to advance. At 6-5, Harben can still grow and still get stronger. As he matures, if he can get more control, he could be a very good major league pitcher!

2006 Projection: starting at New Britain

Potential: #2 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#9 – Kevin Slowey – RHP – 21

2005 Teams: Winthrop University/Elizabethton Twins/Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick out of Winthrop University

What a year it must have been for Kevin Slowey! It started at Winthrop University where as a junior he went 14-2 with a 2.18 ERA. In 136 innings, he walked just 13 and struck out 134. Sounds like the stats of a pitcher the Twins would like, huh? Well, they took him in the 2nd round. He signed quickly and reported to Elizabethton, but he didn't stay there long as he completely dominated the advanced rookie league. In four relief appearances, he went 7.2 innings. He had a 1.17 ERA. He struck out 15 and walked none! He had to move up to Beloit! He stayed in the bullpen there for four games (to keep his innings down). He then took off when he entered the rotation. All told, he went 3-2 with a 2.24 ERA. In 64.1 innings, he struck out 69 and walked just eight. In one start, he had a perfect game going until a sloop single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. He struck out the next batter to preserve the shutout. Slowey was taken in the 2nd round, after Matt Garza. Garza started his career well, but Slowey was incredible (and it's not just because he participates in my NFL Picks... you can look at those numbers again!). I expect that he will start at Fort Myers and do well. It will be interesting to see how he performs once he moves up to New Britain. Slowey just missed Baseball America's Top 20 Midwest League prospects list. Jim Callis explains, "Slowey just missed, mainly because I had 14 teams of players to consider. He has solid stuff and loads of polish, and he carved up MWL hitters."

2006 Projection: starting rotation for Fort Myers.

Potential: probably a #3 or #4 type starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#8 – Denard Span – OF – 21

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 1^st round pick in 2002

Everyone with the Twins says that Denard Span was greatly improved in 2005. It is very hard to argue with them! Coming into the season, Span struggled with a couple of things. He struggled with batting average. Some seemed to believe that he was trying to hit for too much power, rather than just use his speed. That may be true, but it certainly doesn't show in his numbers. In 530 plate appearances coming into the season (two seasons, between rookie league and Low A), he had just sixteen total extra base hits. Here are two stats that he showed in those two years that I really like. First, he walked 60 times and struck out 89 times. It isn't a great rate, but it isn't bad and it is just one struck out every six plate appearances. I also like his isolated on-base percentage of .089 (and .096 in 2004). Those are very good numbers for a leadoff hitter. His 'other' problem through two years was just staying healthy. He missed significant time each season due to injury. So, what did he do in 2005? He started the year at Fort Myers and in 49 games, he hit .339/.410/.403 with seven extra-base hits. He walked 22 times and struck out just 25 times. He was 13 of 17 in stolen base attempts. He moved up to New Britain and played well from the start. In 68 games there, he hit .285/.355/.345 with eleven extra-base hits. He walked 22 times and struck out 41 times (but in 290 plate appearances, just one in seven). I have heard the argument that for Span to be successful, he will need to have a .400+ on-base percentage. Why? Because then with a .340 slugging percentage, his OPS would still be just .750. However, he is a leadoff hitter whose job it is to get on base. So, that type of hitter should be judged only by on-base percentage. Speed is a huge part of his game. He was just ten of 18 stealing bases at AA, and was picked off a number of times, so that is one facet of his game that still needs to be worked on. Baseball America's JJ Cooper wrote, "Span has not shown he's a polished base stealer yet, despite plus-plus speed. He has struggled to get jumps at times and doesn't read pitchers particularly well. He has shown the ability to receive instruction, so the Twins believe he will become a better base stealer as he matures." 2004 was an excellent season for the young Span. Span will likely start next season back at New Britain with a Rochester promotion at any time. Depending on what happens with Torii Hunter in the offseason, Span could make his big league debut at some point next year. Cooper also wrote, comparing Span to Hunter, "Span is more of a Juan Pierre type, with a better arm, than a power and speed guy like Hunter. But unlike many of the speedy leadoff hitters, Span understands that and is more interested in working counts than trying to pop home runs."

2006 Projection: Starting at Rochester.

Potential: starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

#7 – Alex Romero – OF – 22

2005 Teams: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins signed him as a free agent from their Venezuelan Academy in 2002.

After a very slow start, Romero played wonderfully in the second half and put together a great season. Romero, who turned 22 after the season, hit .300/.354/.458 with 31 doubles, 15 homers and 77 RBI. I really have liked Romero as a prospect since seeing him be successful as a 19 year old in the Venezuelan Winter League. I also loved the fact that in his previous four minor league seasons, he had walked 137 times and struck out just 113 times. So, what we have here is a guy who is young who has hit for average, hit for extra-base (and home run) power, driven in runs and until this season, had more walks than strikeouts. Despite the bad start, he put himself back into the conversation as a similar prospect to Jason Kubel. The negative early in the year appeared to be a lack of effort, at least that is what coaches said. But at some point, he flipped a switch and became great. By August, Terry Ryan was talking about how Romero was probably the hitting prospect most ready to contribute to the Twins.

2006 Projection: Starting OF at Rochester.

Potential: a better-than-average starting OF, possible All-Star

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

#6 – Jay Rainville – RHP – 19

2005 Teams: Beloit Snappers/Fort Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins Round pick in 2004

Rainville wasn't even supposed to spend time with a full-season affiliate this year. He was supposed to stay in extended spring training and spend the summer at Elizabethton. But an injury opened a spot in the Snappers rotation. Rainville took it and ran with it! He threw so well that he was promoted to Fort Myers just days after Swarzak. At Beloit, he made 16 starts and was 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA. In 88.1 innings, he walked 27 and struck out 88. Prior to his promotion, he was really on a role. He not just got Wins, but he also brought his ERA down significantly. In nine starts in Fort Myers, he was incredible. He went 4-3 with a 2.67 ERA! It is more impressive because he did not strike out many batters. In 54 innings, he had just 35 strikeouts, but he was still able to do well, likely because he had just six walks! According to JJ Cooper of Baseball America, in his Chat regarding the Florida State League's top prospects, "Rainville impressed some people, especially with his command, pitching savvy and maturity for a 19-year-old, but his velocity was down to 88 after he was 91-92 last year. His curve is a potential plus pitch, and he was comfortable throwing it behind in the count. If he can get back the velocity he lost this year, he still has a chance to be a relatively high ceiling starter."

2006 Projection: Starting at Fort Myers.

Potential: a #1 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#5 – Matt Moses – 3B – 20

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 1^st round pick in 2003

He had a few nagging injuries throughout this season, but for the most part, Matt Moses was healthy in 2005 for the first time in his career. No one has questioned his ability to hit. He's a natural with the bat, hitting for both power and average. Like Span, Moses started the season at Fort Myers and was excellent. He kept his average near .400 for quite awhile. Of course, that came down, but in 73 games there, he hit .306/.376/.453 with 16 doubles, 7 homers and 42 RBI. He even stole 13 bases in 17 attempts. I think he would have been called up to AA at the same time as Span, but he was hit in the hand with a pitch which took him out of the lineup for a few games and then he stayed down to get his swing back. He finally was promoted to New Britain, and unlike Span, Moses really struggled with that adjustment. In 48 games, he hit .210/.275/.366 with nine doubles, six homers and 30 RBI. He had 59 strikeouts in 200 plate appearances, which isn't good. But by the season's end, he seemed to have made an adjustment. Defense has been a major question mark for Moses, but I think he showed a lot of improvement this year. He made four errors in the first three games he played at New Britain, but he wasn't bad after that.

2006 Projection: Starting 3B at New Britain.

Potential: an All-Star caliber hitter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#4 – Anthony Swarzak – RHP – 20

2005 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick in 2004

When Swarzak was ranked by Baseball America as the Twins #9 prospect before this season, it surprised me. In 2005, Swarzak proved worthy of that spot, and likely a higher spot. He started the season at Beloit and got off to a fast start. In 18 starts, he was 9-5 with a 4.04 ERA (it rose quite drastically in the three or four starts prior to his promotion to Fort Myers). In 91.1 innings, he struck out 101 and walked 32. At Fort Myers, he made 10 starts and was 3-4 with a 3.66 ERA. He struck out 55 and walked just 11 in 59 innings. That is quite the impression for a first year pro! It will be interesting to see what 2005 brings for Swarzak, Rainville and Kyle Waldrop. Will they all start the season together at Fort Myers? Which will make the big splash next year?

2006 Projection: Starting at Fort Myers.

Potential: a #2 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#3 – Jason Kubel – OF – 23

2005 Teams: Disabled List of the Twins

Acquired: Twins Round pick in 200

Arguably the most intriguing player on this list, Kubel missed the entire 2005 season after shredding his knee in the Arizona Fall League last year. Should he be on the list at all? I mean, he spent the whole 2005 season on the Twins roster, but was on the disabled list. I chose to keep him on the list for a couple of reasons. First, he is still rookie of the year eligible. That was the big reason. Also, what he can do in 2006 is vital to the Twins success. If he can come back and contribute right away, it would be a huge spark for the Twins. This ranking is also largely because of what he did in 2004 when he started hot at New Britain and quickly moved up to Rochester where he won beat out Jhonny Peralta for the International League batting title. But his knee injury was a really bad one. He tore up all three ligaments in his knee. But, his rehab was successful. He is now participating in the Twins instructional league. He is hitting without a brace, but wears it when he runs the bases. It is possible he could go somewhere to play winter ball if all goes well. John Sickel's put Kubel under his crystal ball and predicted what type of career he would have. The names of Mike Greenwell and Rusty Greer were mentioned as similar type players. Those are good names!

2006 Projection: may start the season in Rochester, but assuming healthy (big assumption), he should be the RF/DH for the Twins.

Potential: a .300 hitter with 25 homer potential in coming years

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

#2 – Scott Baker – RHP – 24

2005 Teams: Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick in 2003

One of my criteria for this prospect list is that the player must still be rookie eligible. Assuming Baker throws 2.1 innings or more in his final start on Saturday night, he will cross the 50 inning mark and will not be eligible for the 2006 rookie of the year award. However, this list is complete as of today, and he is under that limit, so I am going to still include him! (It's my list, right?) Baker was the Twins minor league pitcher of the year in 2004 when he started the season at Ft. Myers, dominated and was called up to New Britain, where he dominated, and was then promoted to Rochester. He spent most of this season at Rochester where he went just 5-8, but had an ERA of 3.01. In 134.2 innings, he walked just 26 and struck out 107. He was called up to the Twins when Juan Rincon served his suspension. He got into just one game, in relief, and threw a shutout inning. He came up two other times throughout the season and made starts against the Angels and the Tigers and pitched well in both. Finally in late August, it became apparent that Joe Mays was just not going to find it. Baker was brought up and inserted into Mays spot. Going into his final start, Baker is 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA. In 47.2 innings, he has walked just 14 and struck out 29. Baker uses two fastballs that range in velocity from 88-95. He has a very good changeup and a work-in-progress curveball. Baker has earned the spot in the 2006 Twins rotation.

2006 Projection: Twins #4 starter

Potential: a #2 starter, with All-Star ability

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

#1 – Francisco Liriano – LHP – 21

2005 Teams: New Britain Rockcats/Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

Acquired: signed by Giants from Dominican Republic, Twins got him in trade with Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for AJ Pierzynski

We all knew the Francisco Liriano threw hard and supposedly had a couple of other pretty good pitchers. I have to admit that I never expected this kind of season from him. I don't think that the Twins did, and maybe even Liriano himself didn't. His highlight from spring training 2005 was possibly allowing a grand slam to David Ortiz. He was sent down to New Britain where he went just 3-5 but had a 3.54 ERA. In 76.2 innings, he walked just 26 and struck out 92. He was moved up to Rochester where he was incredible! He went 9-2 with a 1.78 ERA. In 91 innings, he walked just 24 and struck out 112! In all, his 204 strikeouts led the entire minor leagues. Finally, on September 2, the Red Wings were eliminated from the playoffs so Liriano was called up to The Show. The first batter he faced was Gary Matthews, Jr., who hit the longest home run ball I've ever seen hit to left field at the Dome. He then struck out the next two. His next outing, he struck out Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Ronnie Belliard. When the Twins were about eliminated and Carlos Silva was removed from the rotation, Liriano took his spot. In all three of his starts, there has been rain, so it may not be fair to judge him on those. In all, he has throw 16.2 innings and walked seven batters while striking out 25 (13.5 per nine). He will start tonight against Mike Maroth. We have now seen Liriano and there are some things we can say. He does still need to work on control of his fastball as it is often up and away. But he throws it at 95. His slider comes in between 88 and 91 mph and is nasty. His changeup is also far better than I would have expected. Liriano is the real deal when it comes to pitching prospects. He is young, he throws gas, and he has two other great pitches. He has shown great poise as well. I still say that Liriano and Santana will both be All-Stars, and possible Cy Young winners.

2006 Projection: may start season at Rochester, but won’t be there long

Potential: Ace-type could combine with Santana to give the Twins the top two lefties in baseball

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

That is it! The SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins prospects. Do you have any thoughts, let me know. E-mail me.

The Vikings beat the Saints last week to record their first win of the season. This week, the team will continue their trek through the NFC South with a game in Atlanta against the Falcons. Can the Vikings even their record at 2-2?

Well, I guess it is possible. I mean, the Falcons could fumble four or five times and Michael Vick could throw another three of four interceptions. However, I just don't see that happen. Vick is not a typical drop back quarterback. He is also a very inconsistent fantasy football performer. However, he is a quarterback who knows his strengths and knows how to help his team win. This team has a great running attack. Vick is a big part of that, but Warrick Dunn continues to rack up yards both rushing and receiving, and TJ Duckett continues to get better. Michael Jenkins is emerging as a big-play option for Vick, but Alge Crumpler is still his go-to guy. This is a good offense. Fred Smoot and Antoine Winfield are great cover corners, but stopping the run is really what is going to matter.

But the Falcons will likely go as far as their defense takes them. It is a really strong defense, one of the best in football. So, what does the Vikings offense have to do to put points on the board and give themselves a chance to win? I really think that they have to play an efficient game. I know. I know. We can say that every week. But against good teams, it is especially true. The Vikings have to find a way to run the ball against Atlanta. Mewelde Moore needs to get some holes and run through them. They need to get into third-and-short situations and then convert. They need to win the time of possession and field position battles. Daunte Culpepper needs time to find an open receiver. They need to try to go deep with Troy Williamson and Koren Robinson. Hopefully that will help the run game as well as open things up for Jermaine Wiggins and Travis Taylor.

In other words, the Vikings are going to have to play a nearly flawless game to win. Can they do it? Probably. However, in the Dome, I just don't see it happening.

What do you think? Can the Vikings win? What do they need to do? Will Michael Vick be stopped? What is your prediction? E-mail me.

Everyone is still hoping to improve, some more than others. Let's see how we do in predicting the Week 4 games. We're down to just 14 games this week because four teams are on their byes. If you would like to see previous week's picks, updated standings or bios on the panelists, check out the NFL "Expert" Picks page here. Still waiting for a couple of the picks, but they will be added as I receive them.

NOTE - Unfortunately, Grant Balfour had a set back in his recovery from his Tommy John surgery. Yesterday, he was in Cincinnati and had surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and a torn labrum. He likely will miss the entire 2006 season now too. I guess I have not heard from Grant in a couple of days now. I certainly hope that the surgery went well ,and that he is doing alright both physically and mentally. This set back had to be a huge disappointment for him because I know he was very excited to get back onto the mound with the Twins next spring. We obviously wish him the best and hope for a successful recovery!

Looking at the selections of the 12 panelists, here is who the collective "We" think will win each game:

And on that note, I will call it a day and a week! I certainly hope that you have found some things that were worth reading and found the Prospect countdown enjoyable. If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.

	Seth Stohs	Stick & Ball Guy	Ben Jacobs	Aaron Gleeman	Grant Balfour	Kevin Slowey
	SethSpeaks.net	Stick & Ball Guy	Hardball Times	Aaron's BB Blog	Minnesota Twins Pitcher	Twins Pitching Prospect
Buffalo @ New Orleans	Saints	Bills	Bills	Saints		Saints
Detroit @ Tampa Bay	Lions	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs		Buccs
Indianapolis @ Tennessee	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts		Colts
San Diego @ New England	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots		Patriots
St. Louis @ NY Giants	Rams	Giants	Giants	Rams		Giants
Dallas @ Oakland	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders		Raiders
San Francisco @ Arizona	Cardinals	Cardinals	49ers	Cardinals		Cardinals
Denver @ Jacksonville	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars		Broncos
Houston @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Bengals	Bengels	Bengals		Bengals
Philadelphia @ Kansas City	Eagles	Chiefs	Chiefs	Eagles		Eagles
Seattle @ Washington	Redskins	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks		Seahawks
NY Jets @ Baltimore	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens		Ravens
Minnesota @ Atlanta	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons		Falcons
Green Bay @ Carolina	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers		Packers

	Will Young	Trevor Born	Brent Hanson	Cory Hepola	Mike Brasel	Melissa Lien
	Will's Twins Weblog	Twins Junkie	BrentNet	KTVH-TV	Fantasy FB Guru	SethSpeaks.net
Buffalo @ New Orleans	Bills	Saints	Bills	Bills	Saints	Saints
Detroit @ Tampa Bay	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs
Indianapolis @ Tennessee	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
San Diego @ New England	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
St. Louis @ NY Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Dallas @ Oakland	Cowboys	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Cowboys
San Francisco @ Arizona	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	49ers	Cardinals	49ers
Denver @ Jacksonville	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
Houston @ Cincinnati	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
Philadelphia @ Kansas City	Chiefs	Chiefs	Eagles	Chiefs	Eagles	Eagles
Seattle @ Washington	Seahawks	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
NY Jets @ Baltimore	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
Minnesota @ Atlanta	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Green Bay @ Carolina	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers