Tuesday September 30, 2003

TODAY'S POSTING

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Late breaking news.....

BULLPEN BEATS BRONX BOMBERS

ALDS Game 1

Twins 3, Yankees 1

Eddie Guardado made us all way too nervous! I have no fingernail left! I almost lost my lunch, but as always, Guardado got the job done!

The story of the game was the Twins bullpen. I wrote yesterday that I thought the Twins had an advantage in the bullpen:

If the starters can go 7 innings, I will take the Twins over any other team in the playoffs. That would put them in a position to throw LaTroy Hawkins in the 8th and Eddie Guardado in the 9th.

Well, starter Johan Santana was only able to go 4 innings. And for those 4 innings, he was great. 3 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, and most importantly no runs! Unfortunately for the Twins, Santana then had to leave the game with cramps in his leg.

When Rick Reed came into the game for the start of the 5^th inning, with the Twins holding on to a slim 1-0 lead, I admit that my confidence wavered! But he got the first two batters he faced before giving up a 2 out double to Alfonso Soriano. With the Yankees lefties coming up, Ron Gardenhire went right to lefty J.C. Romero who got Nick Johnson to ground out to 1B to end the inning.

In the top of the 6^th, things got interesting. Matthew Lecroy led off with a single to left. After a Jacque Jones strikeout, Torii Hunter hit a liner into center. But somehow, it skipped right by Yankees center fielder Bernie Williams for a triple that scored Lecroy from first base. Williams threw the ball to the cut-off man, Soriano, who airmailed the throw over 3B Aaron Boone’s head, and Hunter scored the Twins 3^rd run.

Now the Twins had a 3-0 lead and I could breathe again, even with JC Romero still pitching. Despite erratic control, Romero was able to keep the Yankees scoreless in the bottom half of the 6^th.

The Twins went 1-2-3 in the 7^th inning. In the bottom of the 7^th, Romero walked the left-handed Hideki Matsui, which brought The Hawk, LaTroy Hawkins into the game. After giving up a seeing-eye single to Aaron Boone, Hawkins dominated! Pinch-hitter Ruben Sierra grounded weekly back to Hawkins and they got a force-out at 2^nd. The Hawk then proceeded strike out both Alfonso Soriano and Nick Johnson with some serious gas to end the inning!

The Twins had bases loaded in the 8^th inning with one out, but reliever Felix Heredia got AJ Pierzynski to ground into a 1-2-3 double play.  In the bottom of the 8^th, Hawkins went through the heart of the Yankees lineup and made it look easy. Derek Jeter grounded weakly to 2B for the first out. Jason Giambi was blown away with fastballs for the second out. And on an 0-2 pitch to Jorge Posada, Hawk threw the hammer to him and got him for the 3^rd out of the inning.

The Twins went scoreless in the top of the 9^th, and Eddie Guardado was summoned in to the game. Bernie Williams led off with a sharp single to right. Hideki Matsui flew out to the fence in left. Actually Shannon Stewart made a very nice leaping catch. That was very fortunate because Aaron Boone doubled to left, moving Williams to 3B. Guardado got Ruben Sierra to hit a very high pop up to RF. Alfonso Soriano then topped a ball over Guardado’s head that Luis Rivas made a great play on but despite a strong throw was just late at first. Soriano was safe, and Williams had scored the Yankees first run. Finally, after a number of pitches, Eddie G got Nick Johnson to ground out to 3B to end the game.

Game Notes -

·         It is believed that Johan Santana will be able to make his next scheduled start, in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

·         I hate to bash a potential future Hall of Famer, but is it possible that Bernie Williams is done? He has had number shoulder injuries that have really diminished his throwing arm, to a level below even Johnny Damon. It worked for the Twins as Cristian Guzman was able to score the Twins run on a shallow fly ball off the bat of Luis Rivas. He also used to be a Gold Glove caliber outfielder, but his speed and instincts are clearly not as good.

·         If you check out Aaron’s Baseball Blog’s preview of the Twins/Yankees series, he mentioned that putting the ball in play and making the Yankees make plays was vital to the Twins. Yesterday, the Twins did strike out 7 times, but when they did put the ball in play, the Yankees made some mistakes. The Twins (and specifically Cristian Guzman’s) aggressiveness on the basepaths also created opportunities for misplays by the Yankees. Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui and Alfonso Soriano all made mistakes that the Twins were able to capitalize on.

·         Gerry Davis, the umpire who made a lot of bad calls in each of the Twins crucial four game series at Chicago, was at 3B in today’s game. He made 2 calls that affected the game at the time. In the 3^rd inning, Shannon Stewart singled to left and Cristian Guzman (who was off with the pitch) went all the way to third. The play was close. The ball actually beat Guzman, but Aaron Boone clearly missed the tag ,and by the time he actually tagged Guzman, it was too late. A good call. The second was with the bases loaded in the 8^th inning and 1 out, AJ Pierzynski was hit by the first pitch from Felix Heredia, which would have, of course, scored another run for the Twins. Gerry Davis said that Pierzynski actually swung at the pitch, making it a strike and taking a run off the board. I know some Twins fans may think that Davis has it out for the Twins, but he did make the correct call.

·         WP - LaTroy Hawkins, LP - Mike Mussina, S - Eddie Guardado

·         Twins hitters - Shannon Stewart 2-5, 2B, Corey Koskie 2-4, Torii Hunter 1-2, RBI triple, 2 BB’s, AJ Pierzynski 0-2, 2 BB’s.

·         Yankees hitters - Soriano, Jeter, Williams and Bone each had 2 hits.

·         What’s up Next?  Game 2 is on Thursday night at 7:06 from New York. The Twins will have Brad Radke on the mound, opposing the Yankees Andy Pettite.

·         Going into Yankees Stadium, I think we all had the idea that we should win one of the two games. After winning Game 1, the goal might as well change to winning both games!

·         Wouldn’t it be nice to know the times of Games 3 and 4?  Imagine those people who are traveling to Minneapolis for the game. It’d be nice to have an idea of when the games might be!

·         I’m guessing that tomorrow’s New York Newspapers should be plenty entertaining!  Here are a couple of links:

·         Newsday

·         New York Daily News

·         New York Post

·         NY Times

Game 1 goes to the Twins!  Gotta love that in Minnesota, and well, any other small markets! Game 2 coming Thursday night!  Might as well win that one too, right?

And the MVP Awards Go To…

Yesterday, I handed out my choices for the 2003 Managers of the Year, Rookies of the Year and Cy Young Award winners as if I actually had a vote (Check those out here). Today, I finally will give you my choices for AL and NL MVP. But in order to do that, I have to briefly explain my thoughts on what it takes to be a good MVP candidate. I agree with Aaron Gleeman that for the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards, the question to ask yourself  is, “Who is the best rookie/pitcher in the league?” For MVP, I think it is, and should be, a lot more complicated. More than just statistics should be used to evaluate a player’s “value”.  Here are my criteria for making my selections:

1.)     Statistics - I absolutely believe that statistics are important in evaluating a player’s value. An MVP needs to put up some numbers. A utility infielder provides “value” to his team, but that doesn’t make him an MVP-caliber player. Statistics are important. I won’t say they aren’t. They are really the way that a player is judged by those outside the team. But they don’t always tell the whole story.

2.)     Team Success - This is argued among SABR-metricians because they will tell you that a player on a terrible team can be as valuable as a player who has important at bats right through the end of the season. The purpose of the game is to win, not to put up individual numbers! I definitely would not say that the MVP needs to be on a playoff team, not at all. However, I do think that a player should be from a team that is in contention for a playoff spot for most of the year. Why? Because it’s easier to “pad” your stats and play for the numbers when you’re out of the playoffs early.

3.)     Playing Time - I think that the player should play in the majority of a team’s games. That doesn’t mean a specific number, just a majority. If a catcher catches 125 of more games, that’s pretty full-time. If a DH plays in 125 games, that, to me, isn’t enough to be an MVP. I don’t think starting pitchers should be considered for MVP unless their numbers are so incredible. I think a closer would be more of an MVP candidate than a starter because they pitch and contribute in more games.

4.)     Intangibles - What are the little things that happen to make a player more or less valuable? Is the player a problem in the clubhouse? Does the person play a role every day? Is the player considered a leader? Did the player’s turnaround or arrival boost the team’s play in any way?  There are numerous intangibles that are equally important as some of the known things.

So, here’s how we’re going to look at it. I know that each writer who votes for the MVP Awards votes for 10 players in each league. Based on those results, the points are added up and the player with the highest point total wins the MVP award. Well, what I’m going to do is vote for 10 players in each league, as if I had a vote. I will present them starting at #10 and working down to #1 for each league.

(For those that read this site and don’t know, when I type that a player hit .300/.400/.500, that means that the player had a .300 batting average, a .400 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage.)

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP VOTE -

#10 - Jeff Bagwell - 1B - Houston Astros

                Played in 160 games and hit .278/.373/.524. He had 28 doubles, 2 triples and 39 home runs, and chipped in 100 RBI.

#9 - Sammy Sosa - OF - Chicago Cubs

                Sosa had a controversial year because of his corked-bat incident. It took him a while to get into gear, but check out his 2003 numbers. .279/.358/.553. 22 doubles, 40 home runs, 103 RBI. He was still the best hitter on the NL Central Division champion Cubs. Played in just 137 games though.

#8 - Edgar Renteria - SS - St. Louis Cardinals

                The All-Star shortstop put together a full season. He hit .330/.394/.480 with 47 doubles, 13 homers and 100 RBI. 65 walks and 54 strikeouts. And, he plays a great SS.

#7 - Preston Wilson - OF - Colorado Rockies

                An RBI machine, Wilson led the league with 141 RBI. He definitely took advantage of runners getting on in front of him as well as playing in the thin air of Denver. He hit .281/.343/.537 with 43 doubles and 36 home runs. Had “just” 139 strikeouts, a vast improvement from previous years.

#6 - Todd Helton - 1B - Colorado Rockies

                Helton and his .358 batting average missed out on the batting title by mere percentage points to Albert Pujols. He had another amazing statistical season. .358/.458/.630 with 49 doubles, 5 triples, 33 home runs and 117 RBI. Yes, he plays in Colorado, which helps, but Helton is a great hitter as shown also by his 111 walks to just 72 strikeouts.

#5 - Jim Thome - 1B - Philadelphia Phillies

                Thome didn’t have a great, by his standards, season, but he came on strong when it mattered most, in September. No the Phils didn’t make the playoffs, but Thome hit 10 home runs and drove in 30 runs in September. For the season, Thome hit .266/.385/.573 with 30 doubles and 47 home runs with 131 RBI. Pretty impressive numbers. The one number with Thome that I don’t like is his 182 strikeouts. But, when he does put the ball in play, Thome is a dangerous hitter.

#4 - Gary Sheffield - OF - Atlanta Braves

                Sheffield had a HUGE season for the Braves this year, ironically with his free agency pending! Sheffield hit .330/.419/.604 with 37 doubles, 39 homers and 132 RBI. He was arguably the best hitter in the Braves potent lineup. Another great hitter based on his 86 walks and just 55 strikeouts!

#3 - Javy Lopez - C - Atlanta Braves

                Lopez played in just 129 of the Braves games, but as a catcher, he had a year like no other catcher in baseball history had. He hit .328/.378/.687 with 29 doubles, 43 homers and 109 RBI! Not bad for a guy the Braves were willing to basically give away early in the season because of a couple of disappointing seasons. But Lopez too is a free agent in the offseason and came up huge. 42 of his 43 homers came as a catcher, breaking the record for most homers by a catcher in a season! And, just look at that .687 slugging percentage!That’s remarkable for anyone!

#2 - Albert Pujols - OF/1B - St. Louis Cardinals

                If it weren’t for the greatest player of all-time, Albert Pujols’ season would garner a 100% 1^st place vote in the MVP race. He hit .359/.439/.667 with 51 doubles, 43 home runs and 124 RBI for the Cards. He played in 157 games and had 591 at bats. He walked 79 times and struck out just 65 times. The Cardinals season was disappointing, but they were in to playoff race until the final weekend, and Albert Pujols was a huge part of that.

And the 2003 SethSpeaks National League MVP is….

BARRY BONDS - OF - San Francisco Giants

                Barry Bonds only played in 130 of the Giants 161 games. He only had 390 at bats. How can he be the league MVP? Pure dominance. There isn’t a better, more valuable player in the game of baseball this year, this decade, maybe ever. No batter has been as feared as Bonds. He had 148 walks, with just 58 strikeouts. He hit .341/.529/.749 with 22 doubles, 45 home runs and 90 RBI. Some will say that he can’t win it without driving in 100 runs. Well, he was intentionally walked most of the time he came up with any runners on base. It’s truly amazing what Barry Bonds does. Let’s also not forget that Bonds missed time to spend with his father. Not that that gives him extra points. But remember that the Giants actually lost 6 games that Bonds didn’t play in so that he could be with his father. When he came back, he hit 2 game winning home runs in three games against the Braves. His father then passed away, and the Giants lost more games. Since he’s been back, they’ve been great again. And, remember that Bonds doesn’t exactly have much of a supporting cast around him. All that put together comprise the reasons I believe Barry Bonds is this year’s NL MVP.  If he does win it, it will be his 6^th MVP award.

AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP VOTE -

#10 - Aubrey Huff - OF - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

                Maybe a surprise to the list, but if you look at his raw numbers, they are as good as anyone on this list.  He hit .311/.367/.555 with 47 doubles, 3 triples, 34 home runs and 107 RBI. He played in all 162 games. If the Devil Rays record was at all good, he would be much further up on this list!

#9 - Garrett Anderson - OF - Anaheim Angels

                At first when I was hearing Anderson mentioned as an MVP candidate, I couldn’t believe it. His numbers aren’t that great, and the Angels aren’t much better than even the Rangers. Or, that’s what I thought. Anderson had a very solid season. He hit .315/.345/.541 with 49 doubles, 4 triples, 29 home runs and 116 RBI in 159 games. Sure, he just walked 31 times, but that’s ok when a guy hits for as high an average as Anderson. Again, had he been on a good team, his stats alone warrant a higher spot.

#8 - Shannon Stewart - OF - Minnesota Twins

                No, I don’t think Stewart is a real MVP candidate, but I do think that he deserves votes. His arrival in Minnesota directly related to the Twins resurgence. He brought a new life to a lethargic Twins team. His numbers don’t jump out at you, he hit .307/.364/.459 with 44 doubles and 13 homers to go with 73 RBI. But, he had many multi-hit games and was the spark in the Twins winning the AL Central Division championship.

#7 - David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

                Ortiz deserves a lot of credit for bringing all of the big-time egos of the Red Sox together! You see the players high-fiving, and hugging now, you see a togetherness in the Red Sox that had never been seen before. Sure, he played in just 128 games with the Red Sox (which I acknowledge keeps him lower on this list). Sure, he’s primarily a DH (which also keeps him down on this list). But check out his stats. .288/.369/.592, with 39 doubles, 31 home runs and 101 RBI. (numbers that most players would LOVE for their full-season!) And, 2 triples, which may be the biggest surprise for Twins fans. All of the 4 mentioned to this point should not win the MVP award, but definitely should be considered and receive votes.

#6 - Jorge Posada - C - New York Yankees

                The Yankees catcher played in 142 games for the Yankees. He hit .281/.405/.518 with 24 doubles, 30 home runs and 101 RBI.

#5 - Vernon Wells - OF - Toronto Blue Jays

                Before the season, the Blue Jays gave Wells a 5 year deal to take him through his arbitration eligible years. It was worth the investment this year! Wells broke out! He hit .317/.359/.550, with 49 doubles, 5 triples and 33 homers with 117 RBI! All while playing a very strong centerfield!

#4 - Alex Rodriguez - SS - Texas Rangers

                And, let the controversy begin! As I’ve said on numerous occasions, if I needed to name the Most Outstanding Player this season, Rodriguez would be my choice. But ‘Valuable’? I just can’t say that. I’ve written “when was his last important at bat, Memorial Day?” Here are his numbers: .298/.396/.600 with 30 doubles, 6 triples, 48 home runs and 118 RBI. All great numbers, just not so great to warrant, in my opinion, a spot above the top 3. (and no, his ‘value’ in my opinion is not at all based on his contract!!)

#3 - Manny Ramirez - OF - Boston Red Sox

                It kills me to put Ramirez this high on the list. Because from all accounts, as great as David Ortiz is in a clubhouse, Ramirez is just the opposite. But his numbers are so good that I couldn’t justify him being any lower than #3 on this list. .325/.427/.587, with 36 doubles, 37 homers and 104 RBI. The Red Sox had a great year, and Ramirez had the best year of any of them.

#2 - Bret Boone - 2B - Seattle Mariners

                No, the Mariners didn’t win the division, but again, they were in it until the final week. And Bret Boone led that team throughout the season. Overall, he hit .294/.366/.535 with 35 doubles, 5 triples, 35 homers and 117 RBI. All from the 2B position, where he is a Gold Glover!

And the 2003 SethSpeaks American League MVP is….

CARLOS DELGADO - 1B - Toronto Blue Jays

                His numbers, to me, are equal to those of Alex Rodriguez. Yes, the Blue Jays were 10+ games behind the New York Yankees in the East. But the team won 86 games and Delgado kept the team in the ‘unwinnable’ race far longer than I’m sure most would have expected. For the year, Delgado hit .302/.426/.593, with 38 doubles, 42 home runs and 145 RBI. He played in 161 games and recorded 570 at bats. He walked 109 times (something the Blue Jays appreciate, I’m sure) and struck out 137 times. Delgado had a great year, and in my opinion deserves to be named the American League MVP.

Let’s let the debating begin! I would love to hear your thoughts on my thought on the MVP awards. I’m sure that not everyone will agree with my choices. I know that Alex Rodriguez has a huge following by SABR-metricians, although again, looking at just the numbers, Delgado’s are very similar. So, send me an e-mail or two on this topic. I’ll probably have to have a Mailbag edition using some of your comments later in the week or early next week! Also, be sure to look back to my Managers of the Year, Rookies of the Year and Cy Young Award choices from yesterday and feel free to comment on them as well!

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS -

The playoffs start today with three games. I don’t have the time or the energy to go into some sources and develop a real detailed look at the matchups.  But, I will put my thoughts on them and make some predictions on the playoffs.  For some real good statistics and analysis on the series’, I would strongly encourage everyone to check out Aaron’s Baseball Blog, Will Young’s Page and Ben Jacobs’ Universal Baseball Blog. They all provide some incredible, in-depth analysis. So, I’ll be quick and brief. I’ll show a position-by-position breakdown, a key to the series and finally a prediction of the winner of the series.

So here are my thoughts:

TWINS VERSUS YANKEES

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Key to the Series:

Experience will be important in this series. The Yankees three starting pitchers have pitched a lot of playoff games. Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse will be making their first post-season starts. How they handle that will go far in determining how far the Twins go. I think the Twins pitchers are as talented as the Yankees. And, if Johan can get off to a good start, post a couple of 0’s the first few innings, and keep his pitch count down, I would take him any day! If things go poor in Game 1, Brad Radke is the perfect compliment to Santana! His composure could be huge in Game 2. The Twins really need to play well in Game 1 and win one of the first two games of the series to have a chance (I know, statement of the obvious).

Offensively, on paper, the Twins have more holes than the Yankees, but overall they’re close enough that if they get starting pitching, they have a chance! Shannon Stewart has had some success against some of the Yankees pitchers. Most of the rest of the Twins really don’t have a lot of at bats against the Yankees. I think, as with Santana, that the Twins need to put together some base hits and get off to a good start, maybe even posting a couple of early runs to take the lead.

If the starters can go 7 innings, I will take the Twins over any other team in the playoffs. That would put them in a position to throw LaTroy Hawkins in the 8th and Eddie Guardado in the 9th.

Who will win?

I may be going out on a limb, but I have confidence in this group of Twins players. I think they will shock the world and win the series. Twins in 5 games!

A’S VERSUS RED SOX

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Key to the series:

Ted Lilly. Will he give them a shot in what will probably be a pivotal game 3? Hudson and Zito are as good as anyone, but can Lilly control the potent Red Sox lineup? Will the A’s lineup be able to keep up with the Red Sox?

Who will win?

I don’t think it’s really an upset, but I say Red Sox in 4 games.

BRAVES VERSUS CUBS

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Key to the series:

The Cubs starters are great, but have struggled with the Braves hitters (as have most teams). But, can they all come up big in the 5 game series? We know the Braves will hit, can the Cubs score runs?

Who will win?

Braves in 5 games.

GIANTS VERSUS MARLINS

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Key to the series:

Can the Marlins run continue? Will they be able to compete with the Giants, who have the experience of being in the World Series just a year ago?

Who will win?

Giants in 3 games.

So there you have it. My predictions and opinions on the players in the Divisional Championship Series which start today.  Here is the schedule for today (times Central):

12:06 on ESPN - Twins vs. Yankees

3:06 on ESPN - Marlins vs. Giants

7:18 on Fox - Cubs vs. Braves

What do you think of my predictions or ratings. Send me an e-mail. Let me know what you think?

NFL “EXPERTS” PICKS

The FB Picks page has been updated to include the results from Week 4’s games as well as the up-to-date standings. It was a rough week for me, but Week 5 is just around the corner!!! Check them out here!

Have a great Tuesday and enjoy all the baseball!  I’ll be back tomorrow to discuss the games that were played!

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