Monday, September 29, 2008
SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects
Part 1 - (#s 31-50)
If you haven’t
checked out this blog since Friday, you’ve missed quite a bit. There were
postings on Friday night, Saturday late afternoon and Sunday afternoon, so
scroll down to get caught up.
The time has come for me to
start my postseason Minnesota Twins Top 50 Twins prospect list. You will notice
a few things different this year. First, you will see that I have added the
players’ birthdays to their information. The age can mean a lot of things. If I
guy just recently turned 21, they will spend all of next year at 21. If they
are going to turn 22 in the next few months, they will actually spend 2009 at
age 22. A little change, but I think it is important. Part 1 will also include
20 prospects with slightly shorter descriptions. The remaining parts of this
will be posted with ten prospects each, but with much longer player profiles.
Please remember that there
are many purposes behind doing these lists. Why 50? Well, as you know, I
thoroughly enjoy following the Twins minor league system. I enjoy talking and
writing about them. I also believe that they are doing all of the same things
to prepare for a game that the big leaguers are doing. They are putting in all
of the work without 1.) the money, 2.) the nice travel, 3.) the per diem, 4.)
the 5 star hotels, and most importantly, for the most part they are doing it
without the notoriety. And that is why I go with 50. They deserve to be
noticed.
Now again, with any prospect
list, please remember that it is what it is. It is my attempt to try to
foretell the future. It is an attempt to try to figure out who will have the
biggest affect on the Twins and become the best players. Obviously we all know
that prospect ranking are anything but certain. Really we can only judge the
accuracy of these rankings in five or even ten years.
So much can happen, so a lot
of things go into my rankings. First of all, I take a look at a player’s
numbers. For hitters, I look at things like on-base percentage, doubles,
homers, walks to strikeouts. For pitchers, I also look at walks to strikeouts,
but I also consider hits and walks per inning (so obviously WHIP too), ERA,
Home Runs allowed and more. I read most of the box scores, so I try to find
some trends and hot streaks. But it has to be more than just numbers and this
year’s numbers. For players who have been in the system for awhile, it is about
showing improvement and making adjustments. But again, numbers can’t tell it
all. I have done my best to try to get opinions from various sources much
closer to these players than I am. That can tell us much more. And finally, I
think that Age to Level of Competition is important. For instance, Trevor
Plouffe played alright in his half-season at AAA Rochester. Randy Ruiz
was the International League’s Rookie of the Year and played great most of the
year. However, Plouffe was just 21 years old while Ruiz was 30, so one ranks
high on the list and the other isn’t anywhere near the list. And all of that
put together then goes into my head and out pops a list. How do I rank a 23
year old middle infielder in Ft. Myers to a 19 year old 1B in Elizabethton.
Using as much information as I can find, it then becomes just a guess job to
rank them, again trying to think through what their ceiling is and also what
the likelihood of reaching said ceiling is. It is absolutely an inexact
science, and I think it is important to admit that.
So, with all that, I will
now begin the SethSpeaks.net 2008 Post-Season Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects
list by giving you my selections for Prospects 31 through 50. Please be sure to
notice that many of the pictures of the prospects are actually baseball cards,
many signed, that you can find at TwinsCards.com!
SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects
#50
– Santos
Arias – RHP – 21 (3/17/87)
2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: signed as free agent from Dominican Republic in Feb, 2005.
Arias
began the season in Extended Spring Training, but with injuries, he got an
opportunity to start with the Snappers. He took advantage of it, starting for
most of the season. To protect from excessive innings, he moved to the bullpen
late in the year and even closed several games. Overall, he went 5-6 with a
3.27 ERA and 4 saves. He gave up less than a hit per inning. He struck out 91
in 110 innings. He is very tiny, much like Yohan Pino or former Twins pitcher
Ramon Ortiz.
2009 Projection: starting in Ft. Myers for much of the season
Potential: back of the rotation starter, lefty-reliever
Could be in Minnesota in: 2012
#49 – Tyler Ladendorf – 3B/SS – 20 (3/7/88)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2008 out of Howard College
Had a disappointing professional debut with the GCL Twins. He hit
just .204/.308/.293 with eight doubles and a homer. However, when you see his 2008
college numbers, and the tools he has, you have to see a guy with a lot of
potential. At Howard College this year, he hit 16 home runs and stole a
nation-leading 65 bases. Was signed to go to Oklahoma State but instead signed
with the Twins.
2009 Projection: Hopefully will start season at Beloit, likely E-Town.
Potential: 3B/SS with very good speed and power
Could be in Minnesota in: 2013
#48 – Estarlin de Los Santos – SS – 21 (1/20/87)
2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: signed as Free Agent from Dominican Republic in Feb. 2005.
Speedy, flashy middle infielder. He missed most of the first half
of the season with injury. Numbers were low in 2008 (.242/.304/.309, but the
potential is there for him to be a very solid middle infielder, with plenty of
arm to play SS.
2009 Projection: I think he’ll spend the whole season in Ft. Myers despite missing so much time in ‘08
Potential: utility infielder and pinch runner
Could be in Minnesota in: 2013
#46
– Ryan
Mullins – LHP – 24 (11/13/83)
2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2005 out of Vanderbilt
Once a solid prospect, Mullins struggled and missed time in his
third season with the Rockcats. That said, he was probably the team’s most
consistent pitcher. He went 9-9 with a 4.31 ERA. He struck out nine, but walked
59, in 148.1 innings. Tall lefty with little velocity, he will have to move up
to Rochester and likely have to succeed quickly.
2009 Projection: probably start in the Rochester starting staff, but could be moved to the bullpen to start that role.
Potential: LOOGY or Long Reliever
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#47 – Whit Robbins – 1B – 24 (9/25/84)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins 4th round pick in 2006 out of Georgia Tech
Fought a
back injury in 2007 and struggled with the Florida State League. Moved back to
Beloit but did not play. Spent entire 2008 season in Ft. Myers. OK Batting
Average (.268) but incredible amount of walks (52) meant he was on base a lot
(.383). Should move up to New Britain next year. If healthy, let’s not forget
that the Twins signed him after taking him out of Georgia Tech in the 2006
draft, and sent him directly to Beloit. He has a lot of talent.
2009 Projection: Season at 1B/3B/DH at New Britain
Potential: ceiling is fellow-Tech-y Mark Teixeira, but more likely a solid pinch hit, occasional DH type
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#
46
– Edward
Ovalle – OF – 23 (6/15/85)
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: signed as free agent from Dominican Republic in August 2002
In his second season at Ft. Myers, the still-young Ovalle was one of the team’s more consistent hitters all year. He played all three outfield positions, and he hit for average (.284, after .222 in ’07). He had 14 doubles, 11 triples, seven homers. He also stole 17 bases in 26 tries. 112 strikeouts is still too many. Solid in all areas, spectacular in none. But he deserves the opportunity to continue to improve.
2009 Projection: New Britain OF
Potential: solid all-around player, not great at any one thing, but won't hurt a team either in a role
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#45 – Alexander Soto – C – 21 (11/8/86)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: signed as free agent in Feb. 2005 out of Dominican Republic
Soto
showed impressive early-season home run power in the Appalachian League. He hit
five home runs in his first 21 at bats. He hit nine homers in his first 70 at
bats. He hit .333 in June. He hit .347 in July. His numbers fell down in
August, but he made his presence know, which is tough for catchers in the low
levels of the Twins system to do because playing time is split more evenly.
Soto is also known to have a very strong arm and good skills behind the plate.
2009 Projection: Should spend the year as Beloit’s primary catcher
Potential: Could be a starting catcher, depending on opportunity in the system
Could be in Minnesota in: 2013
#44
– Steve
Hirschfeld – OF – 23 (9/8/85)
2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 9th round pick in 2007 out of San Diego State
Hirschfeld is another tall (6-5) pitcher in that Beloit staff. He
started the season in the Snappers bullpen. By midseason, he was in the
rotation and one of the team’s more consistent starters. 10-5 with a 3.30 ERA.
Just 80 strikeouts in 109 innings, but opponents hit just .252 off of him.
2009 Projection: Bullpen in Ft. Myers, but by midseason could again be starting
Potential: Long Reliever
Could be in Minnesota in: 2012
#43 – Evan Bigley – OF – 21 (3/9/87)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins 10th round pick in 2008 out of Dallas Baptist U.
Another
college draft pick (from Lew Ford’s alma mater) who destroyed the Appalachian
League for the E-Twins. 14 home runs in the short-season is still impressive
and has to be noticed. Also hit .300, got on base 36% of the time and hit 13
doubles and drove in 47 runs. How will Bigley perform in the full season next
year in Beloit? I expect well!
2009 Projection: Full season in Beloit outfield.
Potential: power hitting OF
Could be in Minnesota in: 2012
#
42
– Brock
Peterson – 1B – 24 (11/20/83)
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Twins 49th round pick in 2002 out of Chehalis (WA) high school
Repeated
the season in New Britain, and didn’t show much improvement. In fact, he
actually went a little backwards. His batting average dropped .020. His OBP
dropped .050. His SLG% was down about .020. He walked less and struck out more.
He did hit 11 more doubles but hit one less home run. He did receive a
late-season promotion to Rochester and spent a couple weeks with the Red Wings.
He even got some time in left field this year. In sixth season with
organization, he was still young for AAA when he was promoted. In 40 at bats,
he hit .175 with two homers and 17 strikeouts. Solid 1B glove.
2009 Projection: 1B/LF/DH in Rochester
Potential: big league pinch hitter, role player
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#41
– Jonathan
Waltenbury – 1B – 20 (4/1/88)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins 7th round pick in 2006 out of Ontario H.S.
Another young Canadian first basemen, but don’t make the
assumption that he is the second coming of Justin Morneau even though he is
listed at 6-4, 230 pounds. That’s not really fair to put on anyone. That said,
he put up very good numbers with the E-Twins this year. He hit .319/.382/.540
with 22 doubles, three triples and 10 homers. Good extra base power that could
develop much more power.
2009 Projection: 1B for Beloit all season.
Potential: Maybe not middle of the lineup, but he could hit in the 5-7 range
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2012
#40
– Yohan
Pino – RHP – 24 (12/26/83)
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: signed as Free Agent from Venezuela in 2004
It was a
tough season for Pino. He was hurt heading into training camp then missed time
in the middle of the season. Only really got it going down the stretch for the
Rockcats. Overall, he went 7-7 with a 4.54 ERA in just 18 games this year. He
strikes out about seven per nine innings, but he walked one for every two
strikeouts. He is a control pitcher and if he can have a full offseason, he
should be fine against next year.
2009 Projection: Should stay in the New Britain rotation but could move up quickly if healthy.
Potential: long reliever
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#39
– Deibinson
Romero – 3B – 22 (9/24/86)
2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: signed by Twins as free agent from Dominican Republic
Once thought of as the
3B of the future, Romero unfortunately missed most of 2008 with injury. Early
in the season, he had to have knee surgery. He came back and just as he started
really hitting well, he broke his leg catching a pop up and falling into the
dugout. There is a lot of size and talent here, no question, but he will likely
head back to Beloit next season to reclaim that high prospect status. Great
glove and arm.
2009 Projection: 3B at Beloit again
Potential: middle of the lineup hitter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2012
#38 – Martire Garcia – LHP – 18 (3/1/90)
2008 Teams: GCL Twins
Acquired: Twins signed as free agent in Feb. 2007 out of Dominican Republic
It’s
impossible to know what to make of numbers in the Dominican Summer League, but Garcia
did well there, and then he did very well with the Twins GCL team. Went 2-2
with a 2.91 ERA in 11 starts. In 52.2 innings, he walked 22 and struck out 53.
Again, he is incredibly young, younger than the other young GCL starters, and
very talented. As he gets older, and bigger, the lefty should hopefully
continue to get better and better.
2009 Projection: Extended Spring Training, season at Elizabethton, unless an injury pushes him to Beloit sooner
Potential: so far away, but talent to be middle of the rotation starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2013
#37
– Juan
Portes – IF/OF – 22 (11/26/85)
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 15th round pick in 2004 out of Malden, Mass., HS
Second season at Ft. Myers, and the numbers were pretty similar.
He hit .270/.319/.395 with 21 doubles, 12 homers and 54 RBI. Still lacks a
position, although he did play primarily 3B down the stretch. He should make the
move to AA next year, but it will be a big year for him.
2009
Projection:
playing all over for the New Britain Rockcats
Potential: potential solid bat
Could be in Minnesota in: 2012
#36 – Philip Humber – RHP – 25 (12/21/82)
2008
Teams:
Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins
Acquired: in March 2008 trade with Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis
Guerra from the Mets for Johan Santana
Came to team from Mets. He was sent to AAA Rochester to start the
season, and things did not go well for him at all, for the first four months of
the season. He was sent to the bullpen and that didn’t help. The Red Wings
needed a starter in early August, and they gave Humber another shot, and he was
excellent in the final month. Overall, he went 10-8 with a 4.96 ERA. In 136.1
innings, he gave up 146 hits (including 21 homers) and walked another 49
hitters. In six August starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA. It earned him a
September call-up to the Twins. That said, he probably would have been called
up anyway since he is out of options next year. He has been solid in limited
time with the Twins showing a very solid curveball.
2009
Projection:
out of options, so Twins long reliever
Potential: long reliever, back of the rotation starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008
#35
– Jay
Rainville – RHP – 22 (10/16/85)
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats, Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick
in 2004 out of Bishop Hendrickson H.S. in Rhode Island
Started off horribly at New Britain. He went 1-3 with a 10.29 ERA
in April. However, just as he was starting to turn it around, he was sent back
to Ft. Myers for a couple of weeks to work on a few things. He quickly moved
back to New Britain and was much better in the second half, although altogether
a disappointing season. Will be interesting to see if he is selected in the
Rule V draft. Fastball velocity hasn’t returned since surgery. But he is a
big-time competitor who has had to learn how to pitch. Because of that, he is a
guy to continue watching if the velocity does return.
2009 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: #4-5 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#34
– Cole
DeVries – RHP – 23 (2/12/85)
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Free Agent signing in 2006 out of U. of Minnesota
Had a very solid 2008 season with the Miracle. The Eden Prairie
native was the Miracle’s most consistent pitcher throughout the whole season.
He went 10-9 with an excellent 2.93 ERA in 23 starts. In 135.1 innings, he
walked 38 and struck out 105. Will be interesting to see how AA affects him
next season. Fastball was much improved. He is a great competitor. Needs to
continue to work on the changeup.
2009 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: long relief/5th starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#33
– Brian
Dinkelman – 2B – 24 (11/10/83)
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 8th round pick in 2006 out of McKendree College
Was probably ready to be promoted to New Britain, but really
stalled once he got there. Good walk to strikeout rates in Ft. Myers, but 10
walks to 24 strikeouts in New Britain. He hit just .247/.293/369 but he did
have 18 extra base hits in 198 at bats. Solid all-around, but not spectacular
in any way. As a four-year college guy, he is already not young for his level,
even though he has been aggressively promoted.
2009 Projection: New Britain 2B all year
Potential: solid #1 or 2 hitter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#32 – Dan Osterbrook – LHP – 21 (1/27/87)
2008 Teams: Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins 7th round pick in 2008 out of U. of Cincinnati
8 walks,
104 strikeouts in 75 innings. No walks, 11 strikeouts in 7 innings in league’s
championship game. He doesn’t throw terribly hard, but the lefty had an
excellent showing in his first pro season. He was the Appalachian League’s
Pitcher of the Year. He just knows how to pitch and could advance a couple of
levels in 2009.
2009 Projection: Start season at Beloit, could move up to Ft. Myers by midseason
Potential: back of the rotation lefty starter, or long-career LOOGY
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#31 – Jason Pridie – OF – 24 (10/9/83)
2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins
Acquired: in offseason 2007 trade from Tampa Bay Rays with Delmon Young and Brendan Harris for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan
Way too
many strikeouts (152!), but despite that, take away his May numbers (hit
.142/.182/.212) and he had a terrific season (.303 batting average). He is a
tremendous athlete who can play all three positions very well. Very good
speed. Gardy was probably right and he
does project as a fourth outfielder/pinch hitter. However, in another
organization, he could easily be an every day player. He hit 21 doubles, 16 (!)
home runs and 13 homers. He also stole 25 bases. He could be the Twins #6 OF in
2009, called upon when needed. He could also be used as trade bait for a
reliever or something.
2009 Projection: all around the OF in Rochester
Potential: potential 4th or 5th outfielder
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008
With
that, you can anticipate Part 2 being posted in the next day or two. In part,
it depends on how the Twins are doing and how much time I have to get things
posted. But I welcome your questions, comments, opinions, rankings or
arguments. You can e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com
or go to the WordPress Talkin’ Twins BB site and Comment there. I hope
to discuss this ranking during my upcoming podcasts at www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SethSpeaks
as well.
I
appreciate all comments!