Thursday

Good Morning! The Twins got some late inning big hits to win 6-3 over the Royals last night. Tonight, Joe Mays will try to hold off the Royals offense, and the Twins will try to help their chances for a .500 season. For more Twins Thoughts, mostly on Johan, look below.

This week, I have been looking at what I consider my Top 50 Twins prospects. After looking at Prospect 36-50 on Tuesday, I looked at my selections for Prospect #21-35 yesterday. Today, I'll announce my picks for #11-20. And finally tomorrow, I will announce my Top 10 Twins Prospects.

If you have any questions or comments on any of these players or their rankings, I would love to hear your thoughts. Also, tomorrow, I would like to post a mailbag following my Top 10 Twins Prospects of your thoughts on these lists. If you have thoughts, or if you have a Top 10, 20, 30, or 50 Prospect list, I would love to see it and share it with other Twins fans, so please e-mail me.

By the way, if you want to read some of my thoughts on how I go about ranking these players, click here:

Let's got caught up on Numbers 50-21. For more detail, be sure to check it out here (36-50) and here (21-35).

#50 – Josh Rabe – OF – 26

#49 – JR Taylor – SS – 23

#48 – Justin Olson – RHP – 25

#47 – Brock Peterson – 1B – 21

#46 – Erik Lis – 1B – 21

#45 – Scott Tyler – RHP – 23

#44 – Ricky Barrett – LHP – 24

#43 – Adam Hawes – RHP – 22

#42 – Colby Miller – RHP – 23

#41 – Johnny Woodard – 1B – 21

#40 – Kevin West – OF – 25

#39 – Deacon Burns – OF – 22

#38 – Jason Miller – LH RP – 23

#37 – Drew Thompson – SS – 18

#36 – Danny Matienzo – DH – 25

#35 – Brian Duensing – LHP – 22

#34 – Kyle Aselton – LHP – 22

#33 – Henry Sanchez – 1B – 18

#32 – Alexander Smit – LHP – 19

#31 – Paul Kelly – SS/2B – 18

#30 – Jose Mijares – LHP – 20

#29 – Luis Maza – 2B/3B – 25

#28 – Errol Simonitsch – LHP – 23

#27 – Trent Oeltjen – OF – 22

#26 – Pat Neshek – RH RP – 25

#25 – Garrett Jones – 1B – 24

#24 – Doug Deeds – OF – 23

#23 – Ryan Mullins – LHP – 21

#22 – JD Durbin – RHP – 23

#21 – Eduardo Morlan – RHP – 19

And here are Prospects 20-11: (by the way, I have posted this topic over at John Sickel's Minor League site. It is a great site where you can add your own comments. I also posted a poll over there asking who the Twins #1 prospect is.)

#20 – David Winfree – 3B – 20

2005 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 13th round draft pick in 2003

I used to be down on the "RBI" statistic almost as much as I am on the "Win" stat. However, because the Twins so rarely score runs and haven't had a 100 RBI guy in forever, I am starting to appreciate the guys that are able to get massive amounts of RBI. In 1135 games, Winfree hit .294/.329/.452 with 31 doubles, five triples, 16 homers and 101 RBI. That led the Twins organization, by quite a bit. Winfree is a hitter at this point. He also had 34 errors this season at 3B. But natural hitters are hard to find, and I think Winfree might be just that, just like Matt Moses. Whichever becomes a better defensive player could be the Twins 3B of the future. The other could be a long-time DH.

2006 Projection: starting 3B at Fort Myers

Potential: RBI machine

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#19 – Juan Portes – 2B/LF – 19

2005 Teams: Elizabethton Twins

Acquired: Twins 14th round pick out in 2004

A lot of people are very high on Portes, and so am I. In 64 games at E-Town, he hit. 287/.353/.496 with 13 doubles, 12 homers and 39 RBI. In 267 plate appearances, he had 23 walks and 43 strikeouts, not a bad rate. I absolutely love Portes's power and power potential. I would have liked to see him hit over .300 for me to move him up this list even further. He was young even for the Appalachian League. After the Twins took both Paul Kelly and Drew Thompson, I noticed that Portes started playing more LF. I have to think that those two project very well as middle infielders, but Portes's offensive potential is even higher making him a good candidate for a corner outfield position. Roger and I have had discussions of late regarding where Portes will play next season. Roger would like to see him have a big spring and move all the way up to Ft. Myers to play 2B. I personally would like to see him play LF in Beloit. I would like to see him hit at Low A before jumping up to Fort Myers. In my opinion, he is still very young, so there shouldn't be much rush to get him to the big leagues. If he crushed Midwest League pitching early, certainly move him up to Ft. Myers. I think that by this time next year, Portes could be a Top 10 Twins prospect, maybe even Top 5.

2006 Projection: I think LF at Beloit. “Roger” thinks 2B for Fort Myers.

Potential: All-Star caliber 2B

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#18 – Matt Garza – RHP – 21

2005 Teams: Fresno State University/Elizabethton Twins/Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2005

The Twins used the 25th overall pick this year to take Garza. At Fresno State, he had gone 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 19 games. In 108 innings, he had walked 37 and struck out 120. Garza signed rather quickly and reported to Elizabethton. He made four starts there and went 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA. In 19.2 innings, he walked six and struck out 25. He moved up to Beloit where he made ten more starts. He compiled a record of 3-3 with a 3.54 ERA. In 56 innings, he walked 15 and struck out 64. So, at both levels, he was able to strike out more than one per inning while not walking very many. His numbers would probably be very impressive if you were to take out his first start at each level because they were both bad. Of course, we have to be careful with college pitchers. They generally are able to dominate the rookie league, Low A ball, and even High Class A. But I think Garza has the velocity and other 'stuff' to be successful.

2006 Projection: Starting at Fort Myers.

Potential: a solid # 3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#17 – Boof Bonser – RHP – 23

2005 Teams: Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Giants 1st round pick in 2001, traded to Twins with Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano for AJ Pierzynski in 2003

I should start by saying that in most of the other 29 organizations, Boof Bonser would be a definite Top 10 prospect. With the Twins, he couldn't even get a September call-up after leading the International League in strikeouts this year. Bonser really came on strong late in the 2004 season, and he continued to pitch well throughout the season. In 28 starts this season, he went 11-9 with a 3.99 ERA. In 160.1 innings, he walked 57 and struck out 168. The walks may be a little higher than the Twins would like, and the ERA doesn't jump out as spectacular. But he did average more than a strikeout an inning for the full season, which is very good for a starting pitcher. It is just very difficult for Bonser to get noticed when he is in the shadows of Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano. But don't let that fool you, if needed, Bonser could be ready to contribute to the Twins next season.

2006 Projection: Starting at Rochester.

Potential: a #4 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

#16 – Kyle Waldrop – RHP – 19

2005 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins third 1^st round pick in 2004

I found it really difficult to rank Waldrop this time around. He was the first of the three big high school pitchers the Twins took in 2004. He performed the best in the GCL in 2004. Then this year, he got off to a decent, but unspectacular start at Beloit. While Anthony Swarzak and Jay Rainville succeeded and were promoted to Ft. Myers, Waldrop really struggled through the season's middle months. Overall, in 27 starts, he went 6-11 with a 4.98 ERA. In 151.1 innings, he struck out 108 (low for a top pitching prospect, even a young one, at this level). But, known for his control, he walked just 23 on the year. I originally had him further down this list. But I think it is important to remember that he is still so young, and has such great control. He is tall and lanky, and I think his potential is still great as he fills out. It will be interesting to see if they keep him in Beloit to try to get him some success, or if they'll move him up to Ft. Myers in the pitcher friendly Florida State League.

2006 Projection: Starting at Fort Myers.

Potential: a #3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#15 – Justin Jones – LHP – 20

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle

Acquired: Cubs 2^nd round pick in 2003, came to Twins in 2004 for Doug Mientkiewicz

Last year, Jones did not even make my Top 30 list. In part, it may have been completely an oversight on my part. But also, he pitched very little and was very unsuccessful at Quad Cities when he came to the Twins because he was not healthy. He had arm problems all season, and the year before. He started this season rehabbing, and then made his 2005 debut at Ft. Myers. And really, he was excellent the rest of the year! In his 13 starts, he went 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA. In 77.2 innings, he walked 28 and struck out 54. Neither of those numbers is great, but in a 'comeback' type season, I thought he really showed a lot. I am very interested to see where he will pitch next year. I think that he should start at AA, but he is still very young so even if he is back at Ft. Myers, it would not be horrible. Assuming he can put in a full offseason of workouts, I am excited to see what he can become. Not to get Twins fans too excited, but remember the other example of a very young left-handed pitcher with an injury-history that the Twins traded for when he was still in the low minor leagues? That Liriano guy turned out alright, huh? (No, I'm not saying that Jones will ever reach that dominating level, but I do think that he can be a very, very good major league pitcher.)

2006 Projection: Starting at New Britain.

Potential: a #2 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#14 – Glen Perkins – LHP – 22

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins second 1^st Round pick in 2004

Last year, I ranked Perkins as the Twins #6 prospect. I have to wonder if he is ranked higher many times because of his local ties (he pitched at the University of Minnesota and hails from Stillwater, MN). That is not to say that he isn't deserving of all this credit. He is a very good prospect. After getting drafted in 2004, he made a stop at Elizabethton before moving up to Quad Cities. This year, he started at Ft. Myers and pitched in ten games (9 starts). He went 3-2 with a 2.13 ERA. In 55 innings, he walked just 13 hitters while striking out 66. And then he got the call up to New Britain. That is generally the step in the minor leagues (from A to AA) where a college pitcher first struggles. And struggle is exactly what Perkins did. In 14 starts there, he was 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA. What he struggle most with was his control, something he had never done before. In 79 innings, he struck out 67 and walked 35. I do believe that he will make the corrections and move up this chart again next season. He is going to be pitching in the Arizona Fall League this fall which will be good for him. I think that Perkins is pretty safe. In other words, Perkins may never be the All-Star or #1 type starter, but he will be able to contribute to the Twins. He is very polished (assuming his control comes back which I'm sure it will) and has three very good pitches.

2006 Projection: Starting at New Britain.

Potential: a #4 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#13 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 19

2005 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins first 1^st Round pick in 2004

If you just look at the numbers, it makes no sense for me to rank Plouffe this high. This season, in 127 games at Beloit, he hit .223/.300/.345 with 18 doubles, 13 homers and 60 RBI. He started out really slow, with his average down to .180 in late May. But he slowly worked his way back up and during August he was very good. I like that he showed some power. The main thing that puts him this high on the list is the fact that at 19, he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, and after his slow start, he was not overmatched. He only struck out 78 times the whole season, to go with 50 walks. In other words, I like his approach at the plate and think that he showed enough positives to stay positive on him. The real negative when talking about Plouffe, for me, is his defense. On the season, he committed 35 errors. I am sure that, knowing the Twins system, they will work very hard with him on it, and maybe he can become a plus-defender at some point. I remember when he was drafted out of high school, the question was whether to make him a hitter or a pitcher since most teams were scouting him as a pitcher. I think it will be exciting to see how good Plouffe can be. Reading between the lines of his Midwest League Prospect Chat, Baseball America's Jim Callis says that, offensively, Plouffe is a sure-thing.

2006 Projection: SS at Fort Myers.

Potential: a power-hitting shortstop

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#12 – Nick Blackburn – RHP – 23

2005 Teams: Fort Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats/Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Twins 29th round pick in 2001

Blackburn, for me, was as big of a surprise as anyone in the Twins system in 2004. He was a late draft pick in 2001 and was very much average coming into the 2005 season. In 2003, he was 2-9 with a 4.86 ERA in Low A. In 2004, he returned to Quad Cities and went 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 20 appearances (13 starts). He moved up to Fort Myers and was 3-3 with a 6.27 ERA. But something clicked in 2005. He started the year at Fort Myers again and was an All Star selection. In 15 starts, he was 7-5 with an ERA of 3.36. In 93.2 innings, he walked just 15 and struck out just 55. He was called up to New Britain (after Perkins and Simonitsch). He was even better there. In 7 starts, he was just 2-4 with a miniscule 1.84 ERA. In 49 innings, he walked just 10 hitters and struck out 27. When Rochester was struggling to have starters (due to injuries and promotions), it was Blackburn (not Perkins or Simonitsch) that made three starts at AAA. He did not have a decision, but in 14 innings, he walked just three and struck out seven. His ERA was 5.14, but that is much the result of a rough first outing. If he struck out more hitters, he would be thought of more highly. But after such a strong season, he deserves this spot, maybe even higher. It will be interesting to see how he follows up his breakout season.

2006 Projection: starting at New Britain with a chance for a mid-season call up

Potential: a #4 or #5 starter, probably more of a long-relief type

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#11 – Travis Bowyer – RH RP – 24

2005 Teams: Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

Acquired: Twins 20th round pick in 1999

OK, I struggled with where to rank Bowyer too. Again, I hate to rank relievers too high because even in a great major league season, they may only pitch 70 or 80 innings. However, last year, I ranked Jesse Crain very high, but I knew that he had a couple of pitches to go with his great fastball at the time. With Bowyer, the question continues to be, does he have a second pitch? On my first draft of this, I ranked Bowyer #18. But then I actually got to see him pitch quite a bit for the Twins. I saw a fastball that hits 97-98 mph and is consistently over 95. But I have also seen a changeup and a slider. Now, neither pitch is big league ready, and it is obvious that he needs to improve them, but it is a positive. Also, he has done very well even with just one great pitch and a couple of need-improvement pitches. I thought about ranking him higher, I just couldn't justify bumping any one of the Top 10 prospects. Bowyer will head to Arizona to participate in the Fall League when the Twins season ends. I do think that it would be good for him to start next season at Rochester unless one of the other pitches is ready. But I do believe that he will be up with the Twins very soon in 2006 and could be vital to the team's success, especially if any of the current bullpen members are not back.

2006 Projection: probably pitching the 7^th inning for the Twins

Potential: with some work on his slider and changeup, he could be a very good closer

Could be in Minnesota in: 2006

Any thoughts, let me know. E-mail me. Be sure to check back tomorrow for Prospects #1-10!!

And on that note, I will call it a day. I certainly hope that you have found some things that were worth reading and are finding the Prospect countdown enjoyable. I hope you'll be back tomorrow to see the Top 10 Twins prospects! If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.