Monday, September 24, 2007
SethSpeaks Top 50
Twins Prospects
Part 2 - #11-20
Good Morning! How good was Kevin Slowey in his start yesterday? Seven innings. One run. No Walks. Nine Strikeouts. I would say that is pretty impressive! As impressive as picking the exact point spread of his beloved Steelers' win yesterday!I had to listen to much of the game on the radio as I was again traveling yesterday, but it was a good win as it sounded. As much as I'm not a big fan of Torii Hunter's, I would have been touched by the way that the fans cheered him throughout the weekend, particularly in his final at bat. I thought that Gardy did the absolute right thing by taking him out just before the first pitch of the 9th inning so that the crowd could fully could acknowledge him and what he has meant to the Twins over the last decade or so. Now, you can read other sites (I recommend The Nicks and Josh's Thoughts off hand) for much more Torii commentary, and it's all great. I will summarize my thoughts much more briefly.
I am now to the point where I don't have a problem with the Twins resigning Torii Hunter. However, that does not mean that I feel that they need to pay full market value for him. Torii says he loves Minnesota and playing here, but I have no problem with him taking full advantage of being a free agent for the first time in his career. He put up outstanding numbers this year and improved his defense over 2006 this year. He has set himself up for a huge payday. If he chooses to go with the money, that is absolutely his right. But if he truly wants to remain with the Twins, I hope he is able to feed his children on the $55-$65 million that they are likely to offer him. For yesterday though, the scene was handled perfectly, which is always nice to see.
OK, now today I am going to continue to look at my Top 50 Twins prospects. Last week, I posted my Top 10 Twins prospects and today I will be posting Numbers 11 through 20.
Again, the purposes of the Top Prospect lists are two fold. First, for me to try to make it look like I know what's going on with players in the Twins system. But secondly, it is to give deserved credit to 50 (or more) Twins minor leaguers who are all working hard to get to the big leagues. This list is strictly Seth's opinions and rankings are based on several factors including 2007 stats, career stats, background, reading a lot of box scores, other articles, and finally, I have tried to get the opinions of some people closer to the teams and games than I am. That kind of information helps me move players just a little bit up or down.
With that, let's continue our list with my selections for numbers 11-20. But please feel free to e-mail any thoughts you may have on this list, or where you believe others should rank. Leave Comments below as well. Let's get to the list:
SethSpeaks Top 10 Twins Prospects
#
20
– Brian Dinkelman –
2B – 23
2007 Team: Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 8th round pick in 2006 out of McKendree College
Dinkelman is a guy that I had some struggles ranking. He comes from a small college, which means I like him. He dominated at Beloit, which he should because of his age. He put up nearly identical numbers at Ft. Myers in his first six weeks there. Unfortunately he hit next to nothing in his final three weeks of the season, so his overall numbers don't look so great. So, do you acknowledge that he was really good 88% of the season, or do you penalize him for a slump at the end of the longest season he has ever participated in? Along with Danny Valencia and Johnny Woodard, Dinkelman helped spark what was a very lethargic offense up to that point. He has good speed, plays good defense and has a good feel for the game. I do think he will progress through the system, but to what level of quality?
2008 Projection: Probably start the season as FM's 2B. Midseason move to NB
Potential: solid #2 hitter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#
19 –
Jay Rainville – RHP – 21
2007 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2004 out of Bishop Hendrickson H.S. in Rhode Island
Rainville missed all of 2006, but he was able to stay healthy the entire 2007 season which is probably the key point of his season. But he also pitched very well. Although he had just a 9-11 record, he had a very good 3.29 ERA. In 142.1 innings, he had 110 strikeouts and just 31 walks. It was a solid season, but I believe Rainville has more upside as his velocity continues to get back to where it was. Rainville's upside is certain quite high. Hopefully he can remain healthy next year with the Rockcats and continue to make strides.
2008 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: #3 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
18 –
Brock Peterson – 1B – 23
2007 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 49th round pick in 2002 out of Chehalis (WA) high school
The former 49th round pick continues to impress! Peterson was solid in his first months with the Rockcats, but after returning from a midseason injury, he became a force in the middle of the New Britain lineup. He hit .285/.382/.476 with 21 doubles, 15 homers and 64 RBI. One of the more incredible numbers has been shared in Comments here before, but... In the first half, Peterson walked 21 times and struck out 69 times. In the second half, he walked 23 times and struck out 21 times. What adjustment did he make? Is it something that he can continue with as he (hopefully) moves up to Rochester next year? I guess time will tell, but if he has flipped a switch, he could be DHing for the Twins sometime after the All-Star break!
2008 Projection: 1B/DH in Rochester
Potential: big league bat, could DH
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008
#
17
– Kyle Waldrop – RHP – 2
2007 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of Farragut (Knoxville, TN) high school
IWaldrop's season was full of ups and downs. He started the season great with Ft. Myers and quickly earned a promotion to New Britain. In his first few starts there, he pitched well with little run support. However, after a few games, he started to get hit a little bit and uncharacteristically walked more hitters than normal. He was sent back to Ft. Myers where he had a couple of rough starts before ending the season with some really good starts. Definitely something to build upon with New Britain for the 2008 season. With Ft. Myers, he was 7-5 with a 3.40 ERA. With New Britain, he went 3-6 with a 5.34 ERA. I'm sure fans would like to see him rack up more strikeouts, but if he is able to throw more strikes and reduce his walk totals, he should be just fine.
2008 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: potential #4 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
16
– Juan Portes – IF/OF – 21
2007 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 15th round pick in 2004 out of Malden, Mass., HS
Juan Portes stayed healthy the whole season. Reports always said that Portes was a natural hitter, and he showed it this year in the non-friendly Florida State League. In 495 at bats, he hit .269/.336/.410 with 24 homers, 5 triples and 12 homers. The lone problem seems to be his lack of a position. He played some 2B, 3B and even played some CF. One the team acquired Dustin Martin, he moved around again, but continued to hit. It's all about improvement and Portes's second half showed improvement in the second half. He hit .282/.362/.463 with 12 doubles, 2 triples and 10 home runs. Portes should continue to advance a level a year meaning that the fans in New Britain will get to watch him find a position in 2008.
2008 Projection: playing several positions for New Britain
Potential: potential big bat
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#
15 –
Ryan Mullins – LHP – 23
2007 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2005 out of Vanderbilt
2006 was, in my opinion, a disappointment for Mullins. The college lanky lefty was only adequate with the Beloit Snappers. Well, it took just nine starts, and a 1.98 ERA, with Ft. Myers to be promoted to New Britain. A month later, he was moved up to Rochester to help fill a spot in the rotation. Now, the Rochester stint didn't go so well (0-3 with a 10.47 ERA in four games), but Mullins went back to New Britain and pitched well again. He has made himself the fourth college pitcher that the Twins drafted in 2005 draft that have already touched AAA. Now the question becomes whether the soft-tossing lefty can be as crafty as Tom Glavine or Jamie Moyer, or more like Dave Gassner or Errol Simonitsch?
2008 Projection: half season in New Britain, then up to Rochester
Potential: #4 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
14 –
David Winfree
– 3B – 21
2007 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 13th round pick in 2003 out of Virginia Beach (VA) H.S.The overall numbers don't look so bad. .267/.308/.426 with 27 doubles, 12 homers and 51 RBI in 460 at bats. Winfree struggled offensively for the first time in his career the first half of the 2007 season. Once August hit, Winfree started hitting. He hit .330/.354/.495. Also, his splits were much better against lefties than righties. Against right handed pitching, Winfree hit .336/.379/.579 for the season. Some may want me to put Winfree lower on this list and say that five or six good weeks doesn't make the first several months disappear. Winfree needs to cut the strikeouts just a little bit and try to find a way to take some more walks. But he has always hit and showed enough in 2007 to believe that he will hit again. I think he needs to start 2008 back in New Britain, but a promotion to Rochester is possible if he comes through.
2008 Projection: should start season back in New Britain and move up to Rochester
Potential: Potential power hitting big league hitter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#13
– Ben Revere – OF – 19
2007 Team: GCL Twins
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2007 out of Louisville, KY
Revere's selection by the Twins this past June certainly raised the eyebrows of many of the "experts" that thought the Twins reached for Revere. I, and likely the Twins scouting staff, was excited to see Revere's pro debut, and he came through with some great numbers. In 50 games or 191 at bats, he hit .325/.388/.461 with six doubles and 10 triples. He also stole 21 bases in 30 attempts. Certainly there is room for improvement, but he certainly has time on his side. He should spend next year with the Beloit Snappers in an outfield that should include Ozzie Lewis, Rene Tosoni and Mark Dolenc. It will be telling to see how he responds. He could move up this list quickly, or drop like a rock if he performance at all mirrors Denard Span's. I certainly like Revere, but it's really too early to tell either way. But based on potential, Revere definitely warrants this spot.
2008 Projection: roaming the Beloit outfield
Potential: great top of the order bat, 60+ steals
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
12
– Oswaldo Sosa – RHP – 21
2007 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins signed as free agent in 2002 out of Venezuela
Sosa was added to the Twins 40 man roster last December after a great 2007 season in Beloit. With the Miracle, he made 19 starts and went 5-5 with a great 2.23 ERA. In 105.1 innings, he struck out 82 and walked 36. After the All-Star break, he moved up to New Britain where he made nine more starts. He went 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA. In 48 innings, he struck out 35, but he also walked 22 which is too many. He is a groundball pitcher so location is very important. I would guess he will spend the entire 2008 season in New Britain. He is still very young.
2008 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: potential #4 starter, Carlos Silva-esque
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
11 –
Eduardo Morlan
–
RHP – 2
2007 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2004 out of Coral Park, FLWhen I ran my update about 5-6 weeks ago, I dropped Morlan down a ways. First, he was going through some major struggles, walking too many and giving up big home runs. Secondly, I felt I had to account for the fact that he was a reliever and the future impact of a reliever is much less than that of a starter. Then at season's end, I took a look at a couple of numbers. 65.2 and 92. That is his number of innings pitched followed by the number of strikeouts. Now that is dominant. His record was 4-3 and his ERA was 3.15. He added 18 saves. The fact that he is still just 21 years old certainly helps his prospect status. He got a late-season promotion to New Britain where he got into two games. In four innings, he struck out seven hitters. Dominant stuff! I think guys like Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek have shown just how much a relief pitcher can dominate hitters.
2008 Projection: the bullpen in New Britain
Potential: Potential to be another dominant Twins closer
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
Any thoughts
or arguments? Please
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