Monday, September 22, 2008
More MVP Talk
As I posted earlier, the next week will be,
or at least could be, incredibly intriguing because of
the three Twins/White Sox games and the scenarios that could happen because of
whatever happens in those games. But there is also something else for Twins
fans to watch through the season’s final week, and that is the American League
MVP race.
There are a lot of hitters hitting very well
this year in the league, but none that are head and shoulders above the rest. I
think there are ten guys whose names should be in the discussion, to some
degree. In my mind, there are really only five guys that really should be in
the discussion. Interestingly, those five players come from just three teams.
Both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau from the Twins should be in the discussion. The
Red Sox have Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youklis who warrant strong consideration this year. The
other is Carlos Quentin of the White Sox who, despite missing the last
three or four weeks of the season, still has to be in the discussion. Others
that have been solid enough statistically to have their numbers mentioned
include Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees, Aubrey Huff of the
Orioles, Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Miguel Cabrera of the
Tigers and Grady Sizemore from Cleveland.
In my mind, the choice is easy. Even without
my obviously homer-ish tendencies, I think that Justin
Morneau is the choice for AL MVP. Both Phil Miller of
the Pioneer Press and LaVelle E. Neal of the Star-Tribune penned articles on Justin
Morneau’s MVP Candidacy over the weekend.
Let’s start by looking at the more typical
statistics to compare the favorites:
|
|
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
XB Hits |
RBI |
Runs |
|
Justin Morneau |
310 |
382 |
518 |
900 |
73 |
128 |
93 |
|
Dustin Pedroia |
324 |
376 |
492 |
868 |
70 |
79 |
116 |
|
Carlos Quentin |
288 |
394 |
571 |
965 |
63 |
100 |
96 |
|
Kevin Youklis |
311 |
384 |
556 |
940 |
71 |
107 |
87 |
|
Joe Mauer |
329 |
415 |
448 |
863 |
40 |
79 |
95 |
|
Alex Rodriguez |
304 |
393 |
581 |
974 |
68 |
101 |
103 |
|
Aubrey Huff |
311 |
367 |
568 |
934 |
82 |
107 |
95 |
|
Josh Hamilton |
308 |
374 |
538 |
912 |
70 |
124 |
94 |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
297 |
356 |
548 |
905 |
72 |
125 |
83 |
|
Grady Sizemore |
275 |
381 |
520 |
901 |
76 |
89 |
97 |
If you look at these more basic statistics,
you have to wonder how the two Twins are in the discussion. Morneau
leads the league in RBI, a statistic many voters put a lot of value upon.
Valuable hitters drive in runs, particularly in big spots. I think it is important
to look at more than just home runs, so I put extra base hits in the
conversation. If you go by that, you understand why Aubrey Huff is
mentioned, and again have to wonder why Joe Mauer
is included. If OPS is your favorite statistic to show value (getting on base
and total bases are important), then Alex Rodriguez is the clear winner.
Again, if you just look at these numbers, you can lump all ten of them together
and it would be impossible to really pick a winner. So, we have to look a
little deeper, at some more advanced statistical analysis.
|
|
RC |
Clutch |
WS |
WPA |
VORP |
|
Justin Morneau |
124 |
13.5 |
28 |
4.1 |
51.6 |
|
Dustin Pedroia |
105 |
-4.6 |
23 |
3.2 |
59.8 |
|
Carlos Quentin |
102 |
3.6 |
24 |
3.9 |
51.3 |
|
Kevin Youklis |
111 |
13.2 |
24 |
1.6 |
49.7 |
|
Joe Mauer |
98 |
2.6 |
27 |
4.6 |
52.5 |
|
Alex Rodriguez |
93 |
-13.2 |
23 |
0.3 |
65.7 |
|
Aubrey Huff |
117 |
2.8 |
23 |
2.4 |
62 |
|
Josh Hamilton |
114 |
2.4 |
27 |
3.8 |
57.4 |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
111 |
2.5 |
19 |
3.8 |
49.4 |
|
Grady Sizemore |
123 |
-1.1 |
27 |
3.5 |
67 |
Alright, here are some other statistics, four
at The Hardball Times, Baseball
Prospectus and Fan Graphs.
·
Runs Created shows Justin Morneau at the top of the
list, one point ahead of Grady Sizemore, and significantly ahead of the
rest of the pack.
·
Clutch is obviously something that shows value, and again, Justin Morneau is at the top of the list, with Kevin Youklis the only one even close.
·
Justin Morneau is also at the top of the Win Shares
list, which does factor in defense.
·
Win Probability Added obviously shows which hitters consistently
come up big in important situations. Morneau comes in
second in that category. Two whom? Teammate Joe Mauer
has a big lead in that category.
·
Some
will say that Value Over Replacement Player is
important to the league MVP discussion. I do think that it has to be
considered, but at the same time, the league MVP award is not a position
ranking, it’s a league award. That said, this
statistic again shows me that Grady Sizemore has been very good on a
team that has played quite well down the stretch, although too late. Really,
each of the players is doing well in this category. Of course, at 1B, there are
more players who do well, so to still have a VORP that high is very impressive.
SUMMARY
Again, I wanted to look at as many names as I
could to make sure that my belief that Justin Morneau
should be the 2008 American League Most Valuable Player. Everyone has their
favorite statistics, so I wanted to look at several that people can use to try
to get a feel for each. I don’t want to let any one statistic be the reason to
pick a player. However, in my mind, an MVP should:
·
Play most
of his team’s games. (I think that all of the above names fit this category,
you could argue that Joe Mauer and Carlos
Quentin could be deducted a little bit based on games played.)
·
Be a
hitter unless something absolutely crazy happens (I don’t care how great Cliff
Lee was, he only pitched in about one-fifth of Cleveland’s games. I don’t
care how many Saves Francisco Rodriguez racked up this season, he
pitched in less than half of his team’s games, and if you want to get into it,
he wasn’t even one of the game’s best closers).
·
Be from
a contending team, or at least a very good team. I don’t subscribe to the
thought that an MVP has to be from a playoff team or a division winner, only
that his team be in contention most of the season. (That
really eliminates the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff, Josh
Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.)
My Vote (with a week to go in the season)
1.)
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins
2.)
Kevin Youklis, Boston Red Sox
3.)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
4.)
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
5.)
Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians
6.)
Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago White Sox
7.)
Aubrey Huff, OF, Baltimore Orioles
8.)
Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers
9.)
Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians
10.)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
What do you think? Any thoughts?
With that, please feel free to e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com, or go to
the WordPress site and comment.