Thursday, September 21, 2006

Twins Thoughts

Actual Runs Produced

Good morning everyone! Another game, another Twins win! Be sure to check out my thoughts on the game below. Before starting on baseball, I have to mention two other things. First, last night was the premiere of The Biggest Loser. Minnesota is represented in the top 14! Secondly, tonight is the first episode of Grey's Anatomy for the season. I will not be missing that!

But today, I wanted to bring back an old statistic that I really haven't seen much of lately. Today, stats such as Win Shares, and VORP, and EQA are found all over the blogosphere. I'm right there with people who don't believe that the basic, old-time stats mean everything, but I also can not completely grasp the value of the new, more elaborate statistical measurements are really telling us either. I enjoy reading them all, and think that they could have a lot of meaning. But at the same time, I think that the other numbers matter too.

Not all .300 hitters are the same, and I certainly acknowledge that. But what is a Run Producer? The object of the game is to score runs, right?  For the offense, the job is to score runs, and for pitching and defense, the job is to prevent runs. So, being able to produce runs with the bat is obviously important to a hitter and to his team. So, I am going to just quickly take a look at the numbers of the hitters (through Tuesday's game) and see who has produced the most runs this year. To do so, I am returning to an old, very simple formula. I think that the results will surprise you.

Here is the formula:  (Runs Scored) + (Runs Batted In) - (Home Runs)

So, instead of developing a formula to determine just how many runs a hitter should statistically account for, we will be looking at how many runs they have actually produced. We will factor in how many runs a hitter scored, and how many he drove in. It will deduct the number of home runs as it is a duplication (a hitter gets both a run scored and run batted in for a home run, yet just one run scored).  Make sense? It's an easy formula. Anyone can figure it out. It doesn't take one of those intimidating scientific calculators to figure out. It won't tell us who the MVP is, although you could use it if you want. I mean, if you think that a hitter's job is to produce runs, then this formula should factor in to some degree.

I know exactly what you are thinking, "Seth, you don't really think that RBI is a very important stat." To that, I say that it isn't that they aren't important. If there is a run to be scored, it is important to drive it in. The reason that I don't really use it that often is because, unless you hit a home run, you need teammates on base to get them. So it is a factor of other players. Likewise, unless you score a run on a home run, you do not score a run unless a teammate drives you in, the defense commits an error or there is a wild pitch or passed ball. 

Anyway, I just thought that the stat is somewhat interesting, fun and telling. I think that the results are interesting too, and I will post some thoughts on them after the numbers are shown. So, here are the Top 25 hitters in the American League according to "Actual Runs Produced" (again, through Tuesday night's games):

AMERICAN LEAGUE ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED

Rk

Player

R

RBI

HR

RP

1

Jeter, Derek SS NYY

110

95

14

191

2

Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY

106

116

34

188

3

Ortiz, David DH BOS

107

129

49

187

4

Morneau, Justin 1B MIN

90

124

33

181

5

Hafner, Travis DH CLE

100

117

42

175

6

Ibanez, Raul LF SEA

91

110

27

174

7

Dye, Jermaine RF CHW

97

118

43

172

8

Sizemore, Grady CF CLE

125

69

24

170

8

Young, Michael SS TEX

89

95

14

170

8

Cuddyer, Michael 3B MIN

92

100

22

170

11

Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA

88

111

30

169

12

Tejada, Miguel SS BAL

95

94

22

167

13

Damon, Johnny CF NYY

111

77

22

166

13

Thome, Jim 1B CHW

105

102

41

166

15

Konerko, Paul 1B CHW

92

105

32

165

16

Giambi, Jason 1B NYY

89

109

36

162

17

Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX

90

98

28

160

17

Glaus, Troy 3B TOR

99

96

35

160

19

Matthews, Gary CF TEX

98

78

19

157

20

Youkilis, Kevin 3B BOS

97

72

13

156

21

Wells, Vernon CF TOR

86

101

32

155

22

Mora, Melvin 3B BAL

92

78

16

154

23

Swisher, Nick RF OAK

97

88

32

153

24

Ordonez, Magglio RF DET

73

97

22

148

25

Guillen, Carlos SS DET

91

75

19

147

25

Cabrera, Orlando SS ANA

88

68

9

147

25

Mauer, Joe C MIN

79

79

11

147

25

Blalock, Hank 3B TEX

75

88

16

147

NATIONAL LEAGUE ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED

Rk

Player

R

RBI

HR

RP

1

Beltran, Carlos CF NYM

121

114

40

195

1

Atkins, Garrett 3B COL

108

114

27

195

3

Pujols, Albert 1B STL

112

128

46

194

4

Cabrera, Miguel M. LF FLA

108

110

25

193

5

Howard, Ryan 1B PHI

100

140

57

183

6

Utley, Chase 2B PHI

119

90

28

181

7

Abreu, Bobby RF NYY

91

99

12

178

8

Holliday, Matt LF COL

105

100

29

176

8

Wright, David 3B NYM

90

110

24

176

10

Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM

117

77

19

175

11

Jones, Andruw CF ATL

93

114

35

172

12

Lee, Carlos N. LF TEX

96

109

34

171

13

Bay, Jason LF PIT

97

106

34

169

14

Berkman, Lance 1B HOU

87

122

41

168

15

Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI

115

73

22

166

15

Uggla, Dan 2B FLA

103

89

26

166

17

Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC

86

110

35

161

18

Soriano, Alfonso 2B WAS

112

93

45

160

19

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS

79

98

18

159

19

Rolen, Scott 3B STL

89

91

21

159

21

Sanchez, Freddy 3B PIT

83

81

6

158

22

Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM

87

108

38

157

23

Furcal, Rafael SS LA

107

62

15

154

24

Johnson, Nick 1B WAS

99

77

23

153

25

Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA

111

52

13

150

MINNESOTA TWINS ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED

So, you saw that Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer were in the Top 8 in the AL in Actual Runs Produced. Joe Mauer ranked 25th in the league, but was the #1 catcher. Where did the rest of the Twins hitters come in using this equation?

Player

HR

R

RBI

RP

Morneau, Justin 1B MIN

33

90

124

181

Cuddyer, Michael 3B MIN

22

92

100

170

Mauer, Joe C MIN

11

79

79

147

Hunter, Torii CF MIN

27

77

86

136

Castillo, Luis 2B MIN

3

82

48

127

Punto, Nick 2B MIN

1

68

43

110

Nevin, Phil 1B MIN

21

53

65

97

Bartlett, Jason SS MIN

2

43

28

69

White, Rondell LF MIN

7

32

34

59

Ford, Lew OF MIN

3

35

15

47

Tyner, Jason OF MIN

0

28

17

45

Kubel, Jason RF MIN

8

23

26

41

Batista, Tony 3B MIN

5

24

21

40

Stewart, Shannon LF MIN

2

21

21

40

Redmond, Mike C MIN

0

17

23

40

Rodriguez, Luis O. 2B MIN

2

10

5

13

Rabe, Josh OF MIN

3

8

7

12

Tiffee, Terry 3B MIN

2

4

6

8

Sierra, Ruben DH MIN

0

3

4

7

Casilla, Alexi 2B MIN

0

0

0

0

Do you have any thoughts on the Actual Runs Produced leaders or the Twins? Let me know what you think. E-mail me, or leave Comments below. 

TWINS THOUGHTS

At 9:22 p.m., the Twins had come all the way back and were officially tied for 1st place in the division. Think about that for awhile. How far was this team behind the Tigers in mid-June, or even as recently as mid-August. Sure, the Tigers went on to beat the White Sox about 40 minutes later. Here are some quick thoughts on the game:

 Do you have any thoughts about the Twins? Is this the craziest, most exciting season ever?! E-mail me, or leave some Comments.

On that note, I am done for today! Have a great day!

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