Thursday, September 21, 2006
Actual Runs Produced
Good morning everyone! Another game, another Twins win! Be sure to check out my thoughts on the game below. Before starting on baseball, I have to mention two other things. First, last night was the premiere of The Biggest Loser. Minnesota is represented in the top 14! Secondly, tonight is the first episode of Grey's Anatomy for the season. I will not be missing that!
But today, I wanted to bring back an old statistic that I really haven't seen much of lately. Today, stats such as Win Shares, and VORP, and EQA are found all over the blogosphere. I'm right there with people who don't believe that the basic, old-time stats mean everything, but I also can not completely grasp the value of the new, more elaborate statistical measurements are really telling us either. I enjoy reading them all, and think that they could have a lot of meaning. But at the same time, I think that the other numbers matter too.
Not all .300 hitters are the same, and I certainly acknowledge that. But what is a Run Producer? The object of the game is to score runs, right? For the offense, the job is to score runs, and for pitching and defense, the job is to prevent runs. So, being able to produce runs with the bat is obviously important to a hitter and to his team. So, I am going to just quickly take a look at the numbers of the hitters (through Tuesday's game) and see who has produced the most runs this year. To do so, I am returning to an old, very simple formula. I think that the results will surprise you.
Here is the formula: (Runs Scored) + (Runs Batted In) - (Home Runs)
So, instead of developing a formula to determine just how many runs a hitter should statistically account for, we will be looking at how many runs they have actually produced. We will factor in how many runs a hitter scored, and how many he drove in. It will deduct the number of home runs as it is a duplication (a hitter gets both a run scored and run batted in for a home run, yet just one run scored). Make sense? It's an easy formula. Anyone can figure it out. It doesn't take one of those intimidating scientific calculators to figure out. It won't tell us who the MVP is, although you could use it if you want. I mean, if you think that a hitter's job is to produce runs, then this formula should factor in to some degree.
I know exactly what you are thinking, "Seth, you don't really think that RBI is a very important stat." To that, I say that it isn't that they aren't important. If there is a run to be scored, it is important to drive it in. The reason that I don't really use it that often is because, unless you hit a home run, you need teammates on base to get them. So it is a factor of other players. Likewise, unless you score a run on a home run, you do not score a run unless a teammate drives you in, the defense commits an error or there is a wild pitch or passed ball.
Anyway, I just thought that the stat is somewhat interesting, fun and telling. I think that the results are interesting too, and I will post some thoughts on them after the numbers are shown. So, here are the Top 25 hitters in the American League according to "Actual Runs Produced" (again, through Tuesday night's games):
AMERICAN LEAGUE ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED
|
Rk |
Player |
R |
RBI |
HR |
RP |
|
1 |
Jeter, Derek SS NYY |
110 |
95 |
14 |
191 |
|
2 |
Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY |
106 |
116 |
34 |
188 |
|
3 |
Ortiz, David DH BOS |
107 |
129 |
49 |
187 |
|
4 |
Morneau, Justin 1B MIN |
90 |
124 |
33 |
181 |
|
5 |
Hafner, Travis DH CLE |
100 |
117 |
42 |
175 |
|
6 |
Ibanez, Raul LF SEA |
91 |
110 |
27 |
174 |
|
7 |
Dye, Jermaine RF CHW |
97 |
118 |
43 |
172 |
|
8 |
Sizemore, Grady CF CLE |
125 |
69 |
24 |
170 |
|
8 |
Young, Michael SS TEX |
89 |
95 |
14 |
170 |
|
8 |
Cuddyer, Michael 3B MIN |
92 |
100 |
22 |
170 |
|
11 |
Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA |
88 |
111 |
30 |
169 |
|
12 |
Tejada, Miguel SS BAL |
95 |
94 |
22 |
167 |
|
13 |
Damon, Johnny CF NYY |
111 |
77 |
22 |
166 |
|
13 |
Thome, Jim 1B CHW |
105 |
102 |
41 |
166 |
|
15 |
Konerko, Paul 1B CHW |
92 |
105 |
32 |
165 |
|
16 |
Giambi, Jason 1B NYY |
89 |
109 |
36 |
162 |
|
17 |
Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX |
90 |
98 |
28 |
160 |
|
17 |
Glaus, Troy 3B TOR |
99 |
96 |
35 |
160 |
|
19 |
Matthews, Gary CF TEX |
98 |
78 |
19 |
157 |
|
20 |
Youkilis, Kevin 3B BOS |
97 |
72 |
13 |
156 |
|
21 |
Wells, Vernon CF TOR |
86 |
101 |
32 |
155 |
|
22 |
Mora, Melvin 3B BAL |
92 |
78 |
16 |
154 |
|
23 |
Swisher, Nick RF OAK |
97 |
88 |
32 |
153 |
|
24 |
Ordonez, Magglio RF DET |
73 |
97 |
22 |
148 |
|
25 |
Guillen, Carlos SS DET |
91 |
75 |
19 |
147 |
|
25 |
Cabrera, Orlando SS ANA |
88 |
68 |
9 |
147 |
|
25 |
Mauer, Joe C MIN |
79 |
79 |
11 |
147 |
|
25 |
Blalock, Hank 3B TEX |
75 |
88 |
16 |
147 |
Well, if you were looking for an MVP argument for Derek Jeter, here you go. It is also a case that you don't have to hit 30 home runs to produce runs.
This list verifies that no matter what Yankees fans (or his teammates) may say about him, Alex Rodriguez is pretty good!
If you're looking for a reason (besides Justin Morneau) to not vote for Jermaine Dye, how about - he has produced less runs than Raul Ibanez.
Ibanez was certainly the surprise name on this list, but the Mariners OF has long been very underrated.
Speaking of underrated seasons, how many people outside of Minnesota area would know how great Michael Cuddyer has been this year?
When he went out with a broken bone in his hand, Travis Hafner was the best hitter in the league. It says a lot that he is still rated this high. Likewise, David Ortiz missed about a week and still ranks that high even with the subtraction of 49 points!
To no one's surprise, Joe Mauer is the top catcher by this matrix as well.
NATIONAL LEAGUE ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED
|
Rk |
Player |
R |
RBI |
HR |
RP |
|
1 |
Beltran, Carlos CF NYM |
121 |
114 |
40 |
195 |
|
1 |
Atkins, Garrett 3B COL |
108 |
114 |
27 |
195 |
|
3 |
Pujols, Albert 1B STL |
112 |
128 |
46 |
194 |
|
4 |
Cabrera, Miguel M. LF FLA |
108 |
110 |
25 |
193 |
|
5 |
Howard, Ryan 1B PHI |
100 |
140 |
57 |
183 |
|
6 |
Utley, Chase 2B PHI |
119 |
90 |
28 |
181 |
|
7 |
Abreu, Bobby RF NYY |
91 |
99 |
12 |
178 |
|
8 |
Holliday, Matt LF COL |
105 |
100 |
29 |
176 |
|
8 |
Wright, David 3B NYM |
90 |
110 |
24 |
176 |
|
10 |
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM |
117 |
77 |
19 |
175 |
|
11 |
Jones, Andruw CF ATL |
93 |
114 |
35 |
172 |
|
12 |
Lee, Carlos N. LF TEX |
96 |
109 |
34 |
171 |
|
13 |
Bay, Jason LF PIT |
97 |
106 |
34 |
169 |
|
14 |
Berkman, Lance 1B HOU |
87 |
122 |
41 |
168 |
|
15 |
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI |
115 |
73 |
22 |
166 |
|
15 |
Uggla, Dan 2B FLA |
103 |
89 |
26 |
166 |
|
17 |
Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC |
86 |
110 |
35 |
161 |
|
18 |
Soriano, Alfonso 2B WAS |
112 |
93 |
45 |
160 |
|
19 |
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS |
79 |
98 |
18 |
159 |
|
19 |
Rolen, Scott 3B STL |
89 |
91 |
21 |
159 |
|
21 |
Sanchez, Freddy 3B PIT |
83 |
81 |
6 |
158 |
|
22 |
Delgado, Carlos 1B NYM |
87 |
108 |
38 |
157 |
|
23 |
Furcal, Rafael SS LA |
107 |
62 |
15 |
154 |
|
24 |
Johnson, Nick 1B WAS |
99 |
77 |
23 |
153 |
|
25 |
Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA |
111 |
52 |
13 |
150 |
Anyone else surprised that Colorado Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins is #1 on this list? That completely threw me! He had a great rookie season a year ago and has backed it up very well in Year 2!
Maybe Carlos Beltran's name should be mentioned with Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols in MVP talk!
Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, both in their first full seasons, are making themselves quite the impact combination in Philadelphia! And having Jimmy Rollins setting the table is nice too!
Atkins and Matt Holliday are pretty good in Colorado too!
Or, how about Jose Reyes and David Wright with the $119 million man?
Or, do you go with rookies Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez in front of 'veteran' 24 year old Miguel Cabrera?
You will notice that I still have Bobby Abreu and Carlos Lee in the National League despite the fact that both were dealt to the American League. Most of their stats came in the National League. But also, I just wanted to show where they would factor into this discussion.
MINNESOTA TWINS ACTUAL RUNS PRODUCED
So, you saw that Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer were in the Top 8 in the AL in Actual Runs Produced. Joe Mauer ranked 25th in the league, but was the #1 catcher. Where did the rest of the Twins hitters come in using this equation?
|
Player |
HR |
R |
RBI |
RP |
|
Morneau, Justin 1B MIN |
33 |
90 |
124 |
181 |
|
Cuddyer, Michael 3B MIN |
22 |
92 |
100 |
170 |
|
Mauer, Joe C MIN |
11 |
79 |
79 |
147 |
|
Hunter, Torii CF MIN |
27 |
77 |
86 |
136 |
|
Castillo, Luis 2B MIN |
3 |
82 |
48 |
127 |
|
Punto, Nick 2B MIN |
1 |
68 |
43 |
110 |
|
Nevin, Phil 1B MIN |
21 |
53 |
65 |
97 |
|
Bartlett, Jason SS MIN |
2 |
43 |
28 |
69 |
|
White, Rondell LF MIN |
7 |
32 |
34 |
59 |
|
Ford, Lew OF MIN |
3 |
35 |
15 |
47 |
|
Tyner, Jason OF MIN |
0 |
28 |
17 |
45 |
|
Kubel, Jason RF MIN |
8 |
23 |
26 |
41 |
|
Batista, Tony 3B MIN |
5 |
24 |
21 |
40 |
|
Stewart, Shannon LF MIN |
2 |
21 |
21 |
40 |
|
Redmond, Mike C MIN |
0 |
17 |
23 |
40 |
|
Rodriguez, Luis O. 2B MIN |
2 |
10 |
5 |
13 |
|
Rabe, Josh OF MIN |
3 |
8 |
7 |
12 |
|
Tiffee, Terry 3B MIN |
2 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
|
Sierra, Ruben DH MIN |
0 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
|
Casilla, Alexi 2B MIN |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Do you have any thoughts on the Actual Runs Produced leaders or the Twins? Let me know what you think. E-mail me, or leave Comments below.
At 9:22 p.m., the Twins had come all the way back and were officially tied for 1st place in the division. Think about that for awhile. How far was this team behind the Tigers in mid-June, or even as recently as mid-August. Sure, the Tigers went on to beat the White Sox about 40 minutes later. Here are some quick thoughts on the game:
OK, all discussion on the Twins 8-2 win over the Boston Red Sox last night has to start with the performance of Boof Bonser. The righty continued his excellent September. Last night, he was able to go seven innings. He gave up two runs on seven hits. He walked none and struck out five. He used his defense, but at the same time, there were not a lot of hard-hit balls against him. Well, except for the long home run by David Ortiz. But even that was a first-pitch fastball at the knees. When he was recalled the final time, his ERA was 5.67. With last night's performance, it is down to 4.36.
I am hard on Torii Hunter a lot. Most of it is because of the contract. However, if that is the case, I need to point out now that he is in the midst of one of his hot streaks. I believe this is his second extended streak of the year. In his last ten games, he has gone 15-42 (.357) with five homers and 15 RBI. Now that is a guy who wants to get back to the playoffs.
Joe Mauer went 2-5 to improve a point, to .344. Derek Jeter did not play, so his average remains at .339.
Rondell White went 2-3 and has a modest seven game hitting streak going. During that stretch, he has gone 12-30 (.400). Five of the hits have gone for extra bases.
Hey, remember when Jason Bartlett was a, ahem, liability in the infield. What a joke! To think that some people thought that the team was better with Juan Castro playing the position!
With two outs and two runners on base in the bottom of the 8th inning, and Mike Lowell at bat, Pat Neshek was brought in and he struck out Lowell to end the Red Sox threat. I personally thought that, even though the Twins scored three more runs in the top of the 9th to give them a six run lead, Neshek should have been able to pitch the 9th inning as well and grab his first big league save. Instead, Juan Rincon came in and pitched a perfect ninth. Just look at that again. With the lead in doubt in the bottom of the 8th, it was Pat Neshek brought in to get the team out of a tough situation. It was then Juan Rincon who got the mop up time. Interesting, is it not?
The Hold Stat. I'm not sure how I rank it when it comes to the dumbest stats around. Is it as important as a Win for a pitcher? Is it as important as a Save. Those are both stats that are nearly meaningless in my mind. Neshek deserves a hold, or really a save, for his job in the 8th inning. But, Dennys Reyes got a Hold, and all he did was come in and walk David Ortiz. Now, I'm not mocking Reyes in this bullet point because he has been unbelievable all year. I am mocking the obviously meaningless statistic stat.
I had a reader write me yesterday and tell me that I, and the other Twins bloggers, are not thinking far enough yet. We keep talking about how the Twins should not be going for the Wild Card. I agree with that now. The team should not be going for the AL Central title. I still think that that is the goal that most matters. However, this reader told me that now I should be focusing on the Twins passing the New York Yankees for that top record, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Following last night's game, here are the top records in the AL:
New York Yankees 92-60 ----
Detroit Tigers 91-61 0.5
Minnesota Twins 90-61 1.0
I think that is the new goal! Oh, and just to rub it in:
Chicago White Sox 85-67 7.0
Tonight, Johan Santana will go for Win #19 as the Twins face Josh Beckett and the Red Sox. To this point, the Twins have gone 5-0 against the Red Sox. Josh Beckett is another example of why the Win stat for pitchers means nothing to me. The guy has 15 wins, and yet his ERA is at 5.02.
Do you have any thoughts about the Twins? Is this the craziest, most exciting season ever?! E-mail me, or leave some Comments.
On that note, I am done for today! Have a great day!
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