Monday September 15, 2003

Check out the “Expert” Football Picks, updated through Sunday’s games. After having the best record last week, see how I’m faring this week with my picks and the up-to-date standings for all nine “experts.”

TWINS THOUGHTS

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

NFL THOUGHTS

Twins Prospects: Mauer… and More

At the end of last week, Twins prospect Joe Mauer was named the 2003 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. (If you happen to be a subscriber to the Baseball America site, check this extended Joe Mauer story out.) 

But Joe Mauer was certainly not the only bright light in the Twins organization. A number of their big prospects have moved to the major leagues. Others progressed nicely through the system. Others, well, shall we say, struggled. But that’s how it works with prospects; some make it, some don’t. Today, now that the minor league seasons are complete, I’m going to again discuss the Baseball America Top 10 Twins Prospects, as well as some other minor leaguers who may have made a name for themselves with the Twins brass.

#1 - Joe Mauer, C

The Minnesota native, Mauer appears to be major league-ready already. Just two years after being taken by the Twins first overall in the 2001 draft, Mauer is the best hitting prospect in all of baseball. Look at his offensive numbers, they’re great! But what coaches, teammates, and maybe most importantly GM Terry Ryan and Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, notice is his ability to catch; to call pitches, to intimidate base runners, to handle a pitching staff. Mauer will be headed to the Arizona Fall League in October. Expect Mauer to start the 2004 season at AAA Rochester, but if he continues to progress, he could be in the majors by midseason, forcing the Twins to make a decision on All-Star catcher AJ Pierzynski. If not for AJ, Mauer probably would be in the lineup already!

#2 - Justin Morneau, 1B/DH

The Canadian Morneau lit up Double-A ball before being summoned to the Triple-A International League. When he got to Rochester, Morneau instantly became a star, homering with incredible frequency. In early June, Morneau forced the Twins to call him up with his performance. He came up and had an immediate impact on the Twins. However, he quickly struggled and was not given a chance to make adjustments. After sitting the pine for too long, the Twins finally sent him back to Rochester where he continued to struggle.  Morneau was recalled when the rosters expanded for September. Given the chance (which, with Gardy at the helm I wonder if he will be (see here, here or here), Morneau could become one of the league’s special players!

#3 - Michael Cuddyer, OF

After being the Twins primary RF last September and into the ALCS, Cuddyer’s “question mark” was his defensive abilities out there. It was believed that all it would take to improve was playing out there in the Metrodome. His hitting has never been an issue.  Well, this spring, the Twins left spring training with Cuddyer as their starting RF. He, like the rest of the Twins, was struggling in April, and after starting for a couple weeks, he was benched. After a couple weeks of rarely playing, they finally sent him back down to AAA. He mashed the ball there before pulling his hamstring. He came back from that too quickly and re-injured the hamstring. This time they kept him out for awhile. He finally came back and continued to hit. He was called up to the Twins on August 31, so that he could be on the post-season roster.  I still see Michael Cuddyer as a future All-Star caliber player. Will it be as a Twin?  Somehow, I doubt it.

#4 - Michael Restovich, OF

Michael Restovich actually stalled this season at AAA. He had solid, but unspectacular numbers before he was called up to the Twins in July. He actually was thrown out in RF and started about 10 games in a row and in that time, he his over .300 and his on-base percentage was above .400 while his strikeout rate was actually pretty good. But, that wasn’t good enough for Gardy, so he sat Resto and had the great Scott Ullger work. That’s like the Vikings bringing back John Randle to show Daunte Culpepper how to be a QB!  Anyway, Restovich went back to AAA and did well, and on September 1, he was added to the Twins roster. Although I don’t think Restovich’s ceiling is as high as the above three, I think he could be a solid major league outfielder, given the chance.

#5 - Denard Span, OF

2002 Twins #1 pick, Span signed late last year and didn’t play at all. This season, they kept him in extended spring training until the Rookie League season started. He played pretty well for Elizabethton, unfortunately shortly into the season, Span had an injury and was out for a few weeks. As you can see by the numbers, Span will not be a power hitter. He is always compared to Kenny Lofton. If he becomes that good, the Twins should be very happy!

#6 - Scott Tyler, RHP

A second-round pick in 2001, Tyler is big and throws hard. Control has been his big problem in the low-minor leagues so far. His strikeout numbers are good, but his walk numbers are alarming. This is not unusual for big pitchers taken out of high school. IF Tyler can harness his control, he could be a good one!

#7 - JD Durbin, RHP

JD Durbin and Joe Mauer combine to be one of the most exciting pitcher/catcher combos in minor league baseball. Since Mauer became a Twin, these players have moved up the system together. Both went to this year’s Futures Game in Chicago. Durbin, who height-wise is reminiscent of Oakland’s Tim Hudson (in other words, not tall), throws gas, frequently clocked up to 98 mph. After Durbin moved up to AA, it took him a couple of starts to get going, but as you can see from his numbers, it didn’t take him long to adjust! I can see JD Durbin vying for the #5 spot in the Twins rotation next spring. He was taken in the 2^nd round of the 2000 draft out of high school in Arizona. He will be playing this fall in the Arizona Fall League (with Mauer), and I would guess that he will begin next season at AAA Rochester.

#8 - Jason Kubel, OF

Unlike Mauer and Durbin, Kubel spent the entire season at Ft. Myers. As you can see, he played quite well. He doesn’t strike out a lot, gets on base. Not a lot of power yet, but that could come.  Kubel is just another in a long line of solid outfield prospects in the Twins system. He was the 12^th round pick in 2000 out of high school in California.

#9 - Lew Ford, OF

Lew Ford is the 5^th ranked OF on this list, yet, he has been on the major league roster the longest this year. The reason he ranks this low is because he is already 26 years old. The reason he probably is on this list is because he was named as the Twins minor league player of the year last year. I have mentioned a number of times on this site how much I really like Ford’s approach at the plate. I think he’d be an ideal leadoff hitter. Depending on off-season moves, Ford is probably a 4^th outfielder option for the Twins.

#10 - Adam Johnson, RHP

Johnson has progressively gone down on this list. When he was taken 2^nd overall in the 2000 draft, he was fast-tracked for the majors. He was in the majors in 2001. After strongly disagreeing with Ron Gardenhire’s decision to start him out at AAA in 2002, he quickly got into the doghouse and has had to work hard to get out of it. Based on his numbers this season, I wonder if he is out of it. He did get called up to the majors for September this year, and has pitched just once.

Now, these are just the ten players that Baseball America chose as the Top 10 Twins Prospects before this season started.  I wanted to acknowledge a few other minor leaguer’s in the Twins organization that had great years as well. I will begin with the hitters (in alphabetical order), followed by the pitchers:

Jason Bartlett, SS

The Twins acquired Bartlett from the Padres for Brian Buchanan in 2002.  Bartlett had a great year at New Britain this year, putting himself in the “prospect” category. Just look at those numbers; extra-base hits, lots of walks, and 41 stolen bases. Bartlett will also be playing in the Arizona Fall League. AAA Rochester would seem to be in his sites for next season.

Jeff Deardorff, IF

Deardorff came to the Twins organization from the Milwaukee Brewers. He actually started the year at AAA. It wasn’t because of a lack of production that he was sent back to AA, just a matter of numbers at his positions. He took the demotion well and was quite productive at AA. Strikeout numbers are a little high, but the doubles and homers are very good! Hopefully next season, he’ll spend the whole year at Rochester. Deardorff was also a member of that 2000 USA Olympic team with Doug Mientkiewicz.

Dusty Gomon, 1B

After starting the season, and clearly struggling at low-Class A ball, Gomon was sent back to Rookie League Elizabethton where he hit for power.  Strikes out too much, but can hit the ball a long way as shown by his HR numbers.  I think the Twins would like him to spend the whole year at Quad Cities next season.

Danny Matienzo, C

At low Class-A Quad Cities, Matienzo had a solid campaign. Excellent power numbers and RBI production. I would guess the Twins would like to start him at Ft. Myers next season. Matienzo was a 23^rd round pick out of the University of Miami in 2002, so he is old for his level of play.

Matt Moses, 3B

Twins 2003 first-round pick out of high school. Before they signed him, they had him take a physical and found that he had a hole in his heart, so he had to have some surgery to correct the problem. After sitting for a few weeks, Moses had a very positive beginning to his professional career, hitting .375 at Rookie League, Elizabethton. I would think they will put him on a similar path as former first round pick Joe Mauer, which would mean a year at low Class A Quad Cities next year.

Trent Oeltjen, OF

A very young 19 year old OF, Oeltjen hit well in his first stint at A ball. He nearly hit .300, with lots of doubles and triples. It would appear that Oeltjen should spend 2004 in Ft. Myers.

Josh Rabe, OF

Jose Rabe, an 11^th round pick in 2000, played terrifically at New Britain this season. Coupled with the call-ups of Ford, Restovich, Mike Ryan and the injuries of Cuddyer, it allowed Rabe to be promoted to AAA. His average wasn’t great, but he held his own. As for next season, I would think it would be ideal for him to spend a year at AAA, but so much depends on the Twins OF situation at the major league level and how that trickles down to AAA.

Terry Tiffee, 3B

Terry Tiffee had a fantastic 2003 season, and it ended with an invitation to play in the Arizona Fall League. He went from minimal prospect value, to having a shot at being a Twin in the future. He was the MVP of the Eastern League All-Star game. But all of his numbers are great. Low walk total, but it is coupled with a low strikeout total. Very solid extra-base hits number, and 93 RBI is very impressive.  Look for him to play 3B every day at Rochester next year.  If the Twins don’t pick up Corey Koskie’s option ($4.5 million) for next season, Tiffee may vie for the Twins 3B job.

James Tomlin, OF

As with Joe Mauer, a lot of times HR numbers in the low minor league levels can be deceiving. I chose to look at 2Bs instead, and Tomlin had 17 of those. Also 24 stolen bases. Tomlin was a 7^th round pick in 2000 out of high school. I would think he would move up to AA for next season.

Jim Abbott,

Jim Abbott moved up to AA shortly after the Mauer/Durbin promotions, and didn’t miss a beat. He went from part-time starter at Ft. Myers to primarily starting at AA New Britain. I would assume he will spend the 2004 season at New Britain.

Henry Bonilla,

Bonilla is another player who will represent the Twins in the Arizona Fall League. He is yet another player who played early in the year with the Fort Myers Miracle and helped them to the first half title, then was called up to AA New Britain. The Twins used their 8^th round pick in 2000 to take the senior out of Tulane. After pitching in relief in Ft. Myers, Bonilla started a lot at AA where he was able to pitch a lot of innings. Although his numbers are far from great, he was very productive to the pitching staff. Probably slated for AAA Rochester next year.

Jesse Crain, RHP

I know Joe Mauer deserves the minor league player of the year, but I certainly hope Jesse Crain got some votes. Or, maybe there’s a minor league pitcher of the year category that he can be in. I mean, just look at his numbers. Blessed with a 98 mph fastball, the 2002 2^nd round pick from Rice, dominated three levels of minor league baseball. Look especially at his AA numbers where he allowed a hit every 3 innings and struck out almost 1.5 batters per inning!  If the Twins lose Eddie Guardado to free agency in the offseason, Crain could be the Twins closer next year.

Colby Miller, RHP

Colby Miller spent the whole season at Ft. Myers. But he averaged just over 2 BB/game and about 6.6 K/game. Millwer was the Twins 3^rd round draft choice in 2000 out of an Oklahoma high school.

Christopher Schutt, RHP

Schutt was the Twins 7^th round pick in the 2003 draft out of the Ivy League’s Cornell University. In his junior season there, Schutt was 3-5, but had a 1.85 ERA and averaged 12.8 K/9 IP. In the short-season rookie league, he averaged 11.8 K/9 IP, with an ERA under 2.00.

Errol Simonitsch, LHP

He was the Twins 6^th round draft choice this year out of Gonzaga. 1.17 BB/9 IP. 1.24 K/IP. And an ERA of 1.76.  Probably would have been drafted higher, but sat out much of the college season with shoulder tendinitis.

Alexander Smit, LHP

The 6-4, soon-to-be 18 year old from The Netherlands put up some impressive numbers this season. He did that while missing all of July playing in the European Championships. Check out his website, a site set up by him to keep his fans in The Netherlands updated on him.  It is set up in both English and Dutch.

TWINS THOUGHTS

The Twins had won two of the first three in their current four game series at Cleveland. Tonight, they will try to claim first place for themselves. The Twins go into tonight’s game still tied with the White Sox, who won 2 of 3 at Boston over the weekend). The White Sox have a off-day before heading to the Dome for a three game series against the Twins. Tonight, the Twins send Johan Santana to the mound against Jason Davis of the Indians.

To summarize the first three games of the series:  Friday night, Torii Hunter hit a 2-run homer to give the Twins the lead. But, Kenny Rogers made one bad pitch and Jhonny Peralta used it to hit a 3 run homer. The Twins tied it up and had chances, but lost to the game.

Saturday night, Kyle Lohse was the story. 7 1/3 scoreless innings and a 2-0 win. LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado finished the job. Cristian Guzman hit his first home run of the season, a shot to dead center (OK, it barely cleared, probably one Torii Hunter would have robbed!). Hunter later hit another solo homer for the second run.

Sunday, Eric Milton made his much-anticipated 2003 debut.  He pitched 4 shutout innings, but then in the 5^th inning, gave up a 2-run home run to Travis Hafner which gave the Indians a 2-1 lead. In the top of the 6^th, Doug Mientkiewicz hit a 2-run homer to take the lead back. Milton’s afternoon was done and he really pitched well!  But, Rick “I love seeing how far the ball can fly” Reed came in and gave up a home run to the first batter he faced, Jody Gerut. He gave up singles to two of the next three batters he face. Gardenhire brought in JC Romero with runners on 1^st and 3^rd and one out, and he got out of the inning, the score still tied at 3!  The Twins got a couple of single runs late on RBIs by Mientkiewicz and Dustan Mohr. LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado again shut the door and preserved the Twins win.

One more baseball note, Saturday night, the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks won the 2003 Northern League Championship.

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

 The Vikings went to 2-0 last night with a 24-13 win over the Chicago Bears.  The Vikings got off to a great start, using a 51 yard pass to Kelly Campbell on the first play and following it up with a couple of Moe Williams runs. In all honesty, the Vikings totally dominated the first half, yet had just a 17-13 lead. The Bears grabbed the momentum in the second half and really played well. However, near the beginning of the 4^th quarter, the Vikings got the ball on their own 6 yard line. The proceeded on a 9 minute and 42 second drive that culminated with an 11 yard TD pass from Culpepper to Kleinsasser (his 2^nd TD reception of the game).  Just a few notes on the game:

·         The Vikings offensive line is incredible!  No matter which RB was in the game, they had huge holes to run through!  Culpepper had time to pass.  If the Vikings are going to win a lot of games this year, it will be because of the offensive line!

·         The first TD pass to Jim Kleinsasser was just a great football play. So frequently, we see the Vikings line up with 4 WRs spread. The clears a lot of room in the middle for Daunte to run into the end zone. This time, he started as if he was going to run up the gut, and when the linebacker came off of Kleinsasser, Culpepper threw a good ball to Kleinsasser for the TD.

·         Moe Williams is probably better than a lot of us may have thought.  I said in my Vikings Preview that I thought Onterrio Smith would get most of the touches by Week 2. But, I now think what the Vikings have is a good thing.  Moe Williams hits holes well, runs hard and puts his head down and doesn’t fumble.  Last night, he led the way with 109 yards on 21 carries (5.2 yd avg.). Onterrio Smith added 47 yards on just 9 carries (also an avg of 5.2 per carry). Smith is far more explosive and quick and has the ability to break long plays. It’s a good team of runners, especially when Daunte Culpepper can run too!

·         Randy Moss had just 4 catches for 27 yards. But, that was more game plan than anything else. It was pretty clear the Vikings just wanted to run right through the Bears defense, which they did.

·         The defense looked pretty good at times.  I don’t really know if it was them, or if Kordell Stewart is just non-good!  Anthony Thomas had some nice runs, but because the Vikings got ahead, the Bears chose not to keep running him.

·         Next Week - The Vikings travel to Detroit to take on the Lions! The Lions combination of Joey Harrington to Charles Rogers should be good, but the Vikings should be able to walk all over the Lions. That said, the Vikings should have been able to walk all over the Bears too!

NFL THOUGHTS

·         Jamal Lewis told people he’d break Corey Dillon’s single-game rushing yardage record (278) on Sunday against the Browns, and then went out and did it. He had 30 carries for 295 yards and 2 TDs over 60 yards. Actually, he would have had a third long TD, but there was a holding call, so he only got 48 of those yards. 

·         How do the Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Yes, you can say the blocked extra-point attempt at the end of regulation, but it should never have got to that point!

·         Along the same lines, how does Cincinatti even hang close to the Raiders? If not for a Philip Buchanan interception late in the game, the Bengals may have pulled off the upset too!

·         Why is there even the term “Quarterback Controversy” even being used in St. Louis? Why wouldn’t Mike Martz just name Marc Bulger the starter?!!?

·         Is Arizona the worst team in the NFL?  Absolutely!  Emmitt has to be wishing he had retired!

·         Curtis Martin is done!

·         Is Donovan McNabb the most overrated player in the NFL?

·         Think Byron Leftwich will take over as the Jags starting QB next week?

Well, that’s it for today.  Have yourself a great week!

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