Thursday,
September 9, 2010
NFL “Expert” Picks – Week 1
·
Be sure to check out the Nine to Noon Show with Paul
Allen today on KFAN, its
affiliates and KFAN.com. I will be
joining the show at 9:20 to talk Twins. With the start of the Vikings season tonight,
PA will be live from New Orleans preparing for the Vikings/Saints game, but we
will be talking about the Twins.
TWINS ON FIRE, Sweep Royals
The Twins just finished a series at home in which they won eight out of
nine games. The only loss on the home stand was the horrible 13 inning loss to
the Detroit Tigers where many Twins fans thought the sky was falling down. Many
thought that it would be the beginning of the end for the Twins and yet, as
they have every other time they met adversity, they have gone on to sweep the
Texas Rangers and the Kansas City Royals. I don’t care if the Royals have a
lineup that could make the Eden Prairie American Legion team look big league caliber, it is still huge to get the sweep. There is a
reason such teams are called “spoilers” at this time of year… because they have
the ability to spoil playoff runs. The Twins have to bear down against the
Royals, or in the upcoming series against Cleveland, in an attempt to not let
down. Because if they continue to play good baseball, it’s
hard to envision the team not making the playoffs.
Consider this: The Twins have 22 games remaining in their season. The
White Sox have 23 games remaining. If the Twins continue on their current pace,
they should go 13-9 the rest of the way. If they do that, the White Sox would
have to go 19-4 the rest of the way in order to force a third straight Game 163
for the Twins. If the Twins play .500 ball (11-11),
the White Sox would have to go 17-6. With a Magic Number of 18, it’s hard to
imagine the Twins not winning the AL Central. Is it over yet? Of course not,
but like I wrote, if the team just plays well down the stretch, it will be
really hard for them not to.
The Twins are on pace to finish the season with a 96-66 record. It would
mark the 14th time in the team’s 50 years in Minnesota that they had
over 90 wins:
|
Year |
Record |
Win % |
|
1965 |
102-60 |
0.630 |
|
1970 |
98-64 |
0.605 |
|
1969 |
97-65 |
0.599 |
|
2006 |
96-66 |
0.593 |
|
1991 |
95-67 |
0.586 |
|
2002 |
94-67 |
0.584 |
|
2004 |
92-70 |
0.568 |
|
1963 |
91-70 |
0.565 |
|
1962,
1967, 1988 |
91-71 |
0.562 |
|
1992,
2003 |
90-72 |
0.556 |
And five of those 90 win seasons have come during the Ron Gardenhire tenure. And yet there are still Twins fans
out there that question every single move the manager makes. No, I don’t say
that I agree with everything Gardy does either, and
that’s OK, but sometimes I do think it is wise to step back and appreciate what
Gardy has done.
And I will argue that 2010 is his best work yet. I have never seen so
many injuries in a season. Yes, other teams have injuries
too, but not like this team has gone through. 2006 was an incredible
year with a most unlikely second half. I think that this year’s team has more
talent all-around, but that team had the AL MVP (Justin Morneau),
the stat-heads’ MVP (Joe Mauer), the Cy Young
Award winner (Johan Santana), a should-have-been Rookie of the Year
despite his season coming to an early end (Francisco Liriano),
and Torii Hunter talking away in centerfield.
One other thing to note about Ron Gardenhire
and Rick Anderson… Baseball Prospectus has put together a statistic on Pitcher
Abuse Points. It looks at the number of pitches that each pitcher has
thrown. Considers how many pitches they average per start. It looks at the
maximum number of pitches that starters have thrown in a game and other things.
To no one’s surprise, Edwin Jackson is #1 in pitcher abuse points. Francisco
Liriano is the first Twins pitcher to show on the
list, at #63. Next on the list for the Twins? Carl Pavano at #118. The
others are Kevin Slowey at #130, Nick
Blackburn at #157, Scott Baker at #167, and Brian Duensing at #187.
It would sure be nice to get Danny Valencia back into the lineup.
Matt Tolbert has done a nice job in his place the last five games. Valencia has
put himself into contention for AL Rookie of the Year, but behind Neftali Feliz of
the Rangers and Austin Jackson of the Tigers, so it would be great to
get him back. That said, Tolbert has done well, and
consider this: In 2009, he was the Twins starting 3B in September. In 78
September plate appearances, Tolbert hit .333/.365/.464 and played great
defense. It was such a surprise last year because coming into September, he had hit just .178 with the Twins in 129 at
bats. His 23 September hits equaled his total for the previous five months put
together.
Speaking of Baseball Prospectus and some of their cool stats, they also
look at the odds
of teams winning their division, the wild card or advancing to the playoffs.
Before last night’s win and White Sox loss, it listed the Twins as having a 89.6% chance of winning the division, and having a 90.1%
chance of making the playoffs. I imagine that those numbers will be
significantly higher when updated this morning.
The Twins should enjoy their off day today before heading back on the
road. Hopefully Valencia, Jim Thome and Brian
Fuentes will be able to get back on the field this weekend!
NFL “Expert” Picks –
Week 1
Before getting to the picks, I would like to introduce
this year's panel (Please note that others have been invited and could be
joining the weekly panel):
Jeff Manship – Jeff is in his fourth year on this panel. He was
the Twins 14th round draft pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame. He has
been promoted to the Twins five times this year, making one spot start and
otherwise pitching in long relief.
Alex Burnett – Alex joins the panel for the second time. The Twins 12th round pick in 2005 out of his California high school, Burnett surprisingly was on the Twins Opening Day roster. He showed his promise throughout the first half of the season before being sent back to Rochester. He recently returned to the Twins for September.
Matt Fox – Matt
is on this panel for the second year. He was a supplemental first round pick of
the Twins in 2004 out of Central Florida. His story has been well documented in
the last week, since I was able to break the news that he would be making his
major league debut last Friday. He pitched great against the Rangers.
Dan Osterbrock – Osterbrock was the Twins
7th round pick in 2008 out of the University of Cincinnati. He was
named the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year in 2009. After a difficult
2009, Osterbrock was as good as any pitcher in the
Twins farm system in 2010. He returned to Beloit and made five starts. He was
twice Midwest League Pitcher of the week and threw a no-hitter. He was just as
good the rest of the season with the Ft. Myers Miracle. This is his second year
on this panel.
Steve Blevins
– Blevins is also on the panel for the second year. The Snappers’ reliever was
the Twins 21st round pick in 2008 out of Marshall. He returned to
Beloit to start the season
but throughout the course of the 2010 season, he was promoted to
Ft. Myers and then to New Britain.
Kyle Gibson
– Kyle was the Twins 1st round pick in 2009 out of the University of
Missouri. He made his professional debut in 2010 with the Ft. Myers Miracle,
but he also made starts in Double-A New Britain and Triple-A Rochester. It is
likely Gibson will debut with the Twins in 2011. Gibson is on the panel for the
second year.
Chris Parmelee – Chris is competing in this panel for the first time
this year. He was the Twins 1st round pick in 2010. He began the
2010 season at New Britain but was sent back to Ft. Myers in mid-May. He
quickly returned to New Britain where he played some of the best ball of his
career. He will also be headed to the Arizona Fall League for the second
straight season
Nate Hanson
– He is from Chanhassen, went to Eden Prairie high school, moved
on to the University of Minnesota before being drafted by the Minnesota Twins.
After spending 2008 in Elizabethton and 2009 in Beloit, he moved up to Ft.
Myers in 2010. He was one of the team’s top hitters and hit 11 home runs. This
is his first year on the panel.
BJ Hermsen – Another first-timer on this panel, Hermsen had a very solid 2010 season. He began the year at
Extended Spring Training, but advanced to Beloit where he made several starts.
He eventually was moved back to Elizabethton where he pitched really well.
Dan Slowey –Dan is the man behind a very interesting website
called Blogonoscopy. This is his third
year in the panel. He will be working hard to defend his 2010 championship.
Anthony Maggio – Anthony joins the panel for the first time. He writes on the Twins for Fox Sports North and does a terrific job.
John Bonnes
– John has been involved in the world of Twins blogging longer than anyone
else. He is The Twins Geek,.
He is also one of the TwinsCentric group.
Josh Johnson – Josh has been writing at Josh’s Thoughts, an excellent Twins blog. He is on the panel for the fourth year.
Andrew Kneeland –Andrew is in his third year on the panel. He writes
about the Twins blog where you can get your Twins Target.
Travis Aune – Travis writes the Twins blog Travis Talks. He focuses a lot on the minor league system. He and I co-hosted Twins Minor League Weekly throughout the 2010 season. This will be his second year on the panel.
John Meyer – John is another very busy individual. His business is going strong into its second year and he does a great job as the Twins Most Valuable Blogger. This is his second year on the panel.
LaVelle E. Neal III – LaVelle has been on this
panel for several years now. He is a Twins beat writer for the Minneapolis
Star-Tribune which includes the blog Twins Insider. He also frequently appears on KFAN radio.
He’s always a strong competitor in this competition.
Phil Mackey – P-Mac is on the Reusse and Mackey Show from noon to 2 weekdays on 1500espn. He frequently writes on the Twins at 1500espn.com. He is also co-owner of the MNPokerMag.com. He is one of the busiest sports media types in the Twin Cities, and this is his second year on the panel.
Darren “Doogie” Wolfson –
Speaking of busy Twin Cities media types, Doogie can be found everywhere. He now works for KSTP-TV in
the Twin Cities, and is the host of Twins Wrap on 1500espn. He is joining the
panel for the second year.
Seth Kaplan –
Seth is the sports director for Fox 9 in the
Twin Cities. He often is on Sports
on Demand, a weekly Monday afternoon sports talk show on MyFox9.com.
Jack Michaels – Jack competes in this panel for the third straight year. He is the host of The Jack Michaels Show on ESPN 710 The Fan in Bismarck, ND, and has been kind enough to let me be on his show from time to time. He was the original radio play-by-play guy of the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks where he teamed with former Dodgers great Maury Wills.
Cory Hepola – Cory is currently a sports anchor for WROC-TV in
Rochester, New York. You can find much more about him on his
personal blog that includes postings and videos and much more.
Vic Quick –
Vic has been on this panel for a long time. He is currently a sports
reporter/anchor for KOTA-TV in Rapid City, South Dakota, and proclaims himself
the biggest Texas Rangers fan in South Dakota. The Dallas native is also likely
the biggest Cowboys fan in the state too! My former college roommate definitely
knows his football, at least anything about Emmitt Smith or Troy Aikman,
well, and the Concordia Cobbers!
Roger Dehring – Roger is one of the more knowledgeable people you can meet when it comes to the Twins minor league system. He writes a Weekly Minor League Report for the Twinkie Town website.
Cody Christie
– Cody writes the North Dakota
Twins Fan blog, and is competing in the panel for the first year.
Topper Anton
– Topper is on the panel for the first time. He writes the blog Curve for a Strike, and is the co-host
on Fanatic Jack’s podcast.
Kirsten Brown
– Kirsten will be making her debut on the panel this year. She writes the K-Bro Baseball blog and makes the
best brownies ever!
Shawn Berg –
On the Road with Shawn is
the name of his blog. The Minnesota native lives out in New
York and frequently gets to Twins minor league games in Rochester and
New Britain.
Emily Jipp – Emily joins the panel this year for the first time.
She writes Cheap Seats Chatter.
She’s also in charge of our Twoggers League, a
fantasy football league with 14 Twins bloggers.
Andrew Bryz-Gornia – You may have met Andrew at Target Field this year
where he enjoyed watching games while being an usher. He writes Off the Mark and is competing
in the panel for the first time.
Blake Meyer – Blake is the originator of an incredible Twins website, Twins Cards. If you go there, you can see Twins baseball cards back to the team’s inception. You can find autographs and memorabilia and much more. Blake provides us an international flavor to the panel!
Michael Brasel
– Long time friend (well over 30 years now), Mike was listed among the best players I have
played ball with. He was one of the original panelists.
The Week 1 Picks
Alright, here are our picks for the first week of the
season:
|
Minnesota @ New Orleans |
Miami @ Buffalo |
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh |
Denver @ Jacksonville |
Indianapolis @ Houston |
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay |
Carolina @ NY Giants |
Cincinnati @ New England |
Oakland @ Tennessee |
Detroit @ Chicago |
Arizona @ St. Louis |
Green Bay @ Philadelphia |
San Francisco @ Seattle |
Dallas @ Washington |
Baltimore @ NY Jets |
San Diego @ Kansas City |
||
|
Seth Stohs |
SethSpeaks.net |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Eagles |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Dan Slowey |
Blogonoscopy |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
Seahawks |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Jeff Manship |
Twins Pitcher |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
Seahawks |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Alex Burnett |
Twins Pitcher |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Broncos |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Bengals |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Matt Fox |
Twins Pitcher |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
Seahawks |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Kyle Gibson |
Twins SP
Prospect |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Bengals |
Titans |
Lions |
Rams |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Chris Parmelee |
Twins 1B
Prospect |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Steve Blevins |
Twins RP
Prospect |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Panthers |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Rams |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Nate Hanson |
Twins IF
Prospect |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Dan Osterbrock |
Twins SP
Prospect |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
BJ Hermsen |
Twins SP
Prospect |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Bengals |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
LaVelle
Neal |
Star Tribune |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Texans |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Rams |
Eagles |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Phil Mackey |
1500ESPN.com |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Bengals |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Darren Wolfson |
Twins Wrap |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Texans |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Anthony Maggio |
FSNorth.com |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Bengals |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Seth Kaplan |
Fox 9 - TV (Twin
Cities) |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Cory Hepola |
WROC-TV,
Rochester, NY |
Saints |
Bills |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Eagles |
49ers |
Redskins |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Vic Quick |
KOTA-TV Rapid
City, SD |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Raiders |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Jack Michaels |
ESPN 710am,
Bismarck |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Rams |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
John Bonnes |
Twins Geek |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Josh Johnson |
Josh's Thoughts |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Roger Dehring |
Twinkie Town |
Saints |
Bills |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Raiders |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Cody Christie |
NoDak
Twins Fan |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Travis Aune |
Travis Twins
Talk |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Browns |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Eagles |
49ers |
Redskins |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
John Meyer |
Twins MVB |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Lions |
Rams |
Packers |
Seahawks |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Topper Anton |
Curve for a
Strike |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Eagles |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chiefs |
|
Kirsten Brown |
K-Bro Baseball |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Andrew Kneeland |
Twins Target |
Saints |
Bills |
Steelers |
Broncos |
Colts |
Browns |
Panthers |
Patriots |
Titans |
Lions |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Shawn Berg |
On the Road with
Shawn |
Saints |
Bills |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
Seahawks |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Emily Jipp |
Cheap Seats
Chatter |
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Falcons |
Broncos |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Blake Meyer |
Twins Cards |
Saints |
Bills |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Andrew Bryz-Gornia |
Off the Mark |
Saints |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Missy Lien |
|
Vikings |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Broncos |
Colts |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Ravens |
Chargers |
|
Mike Brasel |
|
Saints |
Dolphins |
Steelers |
Jaguars |
Texans |
Buccs |
Giants |
Patriots |
Titans |
Bears |
Cardinals |
Packers |
49ers |
Cowboys |
Jets |
Chargers |
|
Summary |
|
Saints 27-7 |
Dolphins 29-5 |
Falcons 25-9 |
Jaguars 34-10 |
Colts 25-9 |
Buccs 22-12 |
Giants 32-2 |
Patriots 29-5 |
Titans 32-2 |
Bears 31-3 |
Cardinals 29-5 |
Packers 29-5 |
49ers 29-5 |
Cowboys 32-2 |
Jets 21-13 |
Chargers 33-1 |
Any thoughts on the Twins or the Twins minor leagues? Feel free to leave
your questions and comments here.