Friday, August 24, 2007
Your Turn to Chat
Hey, I realize it is mid-afternoon on Thursday, but I am again heading out of town for the rest of the week for work! I have to drive to the cities today and am in a meeting most of today tomorrow, so I figured I would come up with something fun for you to discuss. Here are a few areas for you to comment in. I will try to post Comments from time to time as well, when I am able. And if you missed it earlier today, check out my Look Back at the Twins 2005 Draft.
SEPTEMBER CALL UPS
First, we are a week away from September, and that means September call-ups. It is always fun to guess who is going to be called up, but also to see those players get an opportunity. Here are my thoughts:
I assume that Brian Buscher will be activated from the Disabled List, so he will be with the team.
I assume that the player who is sent to Rochester when Buscher is activated, Tommy Watkins or Garrett Jones, will be promoted.
I assume the veteran types that were sent down, such as Lew Ford, Luis Rodriguez and Chris Heintz, will be up.
It is likely that Darnell McDonald and Jason Miller will come back up to be further evaluated.
Kevin Slowey is a sure-thing to be promoted back to the Twins.
I think that Jose Morales will be put on the 40 man roster and promoted.
Denard Span may be called up to get an opportunity to play with Torii Hunter, and pinch run.
I would also assume that, with the exception of probably Heintz, none of them will be called up to the Twins before the Red Wings season is over.
That is already nine guys promoted. That is already a number that I don't think they will be willing to go to, so I think that will be it.
Two "snubs" - Nick Blackburn and Matt Tolbert. In order for either of those guys to get a shot, players would need to be Designated for Assignment, something that certainly could happen. In reality, it is unlikely that Ford, Rodriguez or Heintz will be with the Twins in 2008, so they could release them to make room for others. Tolbert will need to be added to the roster after the season if they don't want to lose him in the Rule V draft, so calling him up makes sense. Heintz could be DFAd to allow for Morales to be added.
Health - It is possible that Glen Perkins will be called up to pitch out of the bullpen, if he is deemed healthy.
What are your thoughts? Are there other players that you would like to see brought up for September? Any other 40 man roster scenarios? Discuss...|
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
The second topic for discussion is the Arizona Fall League. Each year, each organization can send six of their AA or AAA players to Arizona to play against some of the better prospects in baseball. Each team is also allowed one guy from A ball to attend. Last year, the players that went were Kevin Slowey, Errol Simonitsch, Jay Sawatski, Matt Moses, David Winfree and Matt Tolbert. Also important to know, players from countries that have Winter Leagues are not eligible to play. In other words, the Twins prospects in Venezuela or the Dominican Republic, etc., are not able to play. So, Jose Mijares and Julio DePaula can not participate. So, who do you think that the Twins should and/or will send to the Fall League? Here are my thoughts:
Trevor Plouffe - He has had a breakout season at New Britain and has put himself back in Top Prospect status. This experience would be a great cap to his 2007 season.
Brock Peterson - As I mentioned earlier this week, I think that Peterson has put himself into power potential prospect, and this would be a great test for him and would help the Twins determine whether to put him on the 40 man roster or not.
Garrett Guzman - Like Peterson, I think that Guzman has done a very nice job since his return from injury. He doesn't have a big name, but the competition will be a good thing for him.
Anthony Swarzak - Swarzak missed out on a lot of innings during his 50 game suspension, so the Fall League will allow him to get caught up. He has pitched himself back into Top Pitching Prospect status.
Brian Duensing - Although not quite at fellow 2005 draft guys Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, Duensing has progressed very quickly through the system. He appears completely recovered from Tommy John surgery. As long as he is healthy, he has earned this.
Tim Lahey - former catcher turned pitcher has done a very nice job in the New Britain bullpen. Innings and opportunity is what he needs. Something to help him work on reducing his walk total.
Those are my selections, if I ran things, but obviously I don't, and there are several other good options. It wouldn't be a bad thing for the likes of Denard Span, Matt Moses and David Winfree to go back. Matt Tolbert basically became a prospect last year at the Fall League. I would say that Brandon Roberts wouldn't be a bad choice with his solid second half. Bobby Korecky deserves the opportunity, but he is 27 years old, and The Cliburn's have worn out his arm! He could use the rest. Another 2005 draft pick, Ryan Mullins warrants a consideration. Of course, they could use one spot on a Ft. Myers player and if they did that guys like Jeff Manship, Jay Rainville, Kyle Waldrop, Juan Portes, Danny Valencia, Steve Tolleson, Erik Lis and Brian Dinkelman are options.
So, two parts really... who would you send to the Arizona Fall League... and secondly, who do you think that the Twins will send?|
TWINS/O's (4 GAMES)
The Twins and O's begin a four game series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight. Please use the following comments to discuss the games, matchups and any notes that you would like to point out on what happens, or any Twins notes, like what happens when Buscher comes off the DL. Talk about Erik Bedard and whether or not Johan Santana can catch him for the strikeout championship of 2007. Heading into the series, Johan is at 191 while Bedard is at 218. Here are the pitching matchups:
Thursday - 6:05 - Boof Bonser (5-10, 4.93, 1.51,.285) vs Steve Trachsel (6-7, 4.81, 1.61, .289)
Friday - 6:05 - Johan Santana (13-9, 2.88, 1.01, .214) vs Jeremy Guthrie (7-4, 3.44, 1.11, .234)
Saturday - 6:05 - Matt Garza (2-4, 3.30, 1.38, .232) vs TBD (Garrett Olson?)
Sunday - 12:35 - Scott Baker (6-6, 4.50, 1.32, .282) vs Erik Bedard (13-4, .297, 1.06, .210)
Twins Minor League Updates
Please keep minor league updates here. My backup minor league sources both are unable to help with this over the weekend, so if you follow the minor league affiliates and want to help keep this site full of updates, please post comments here.|
Brad Bettin has been reading this site for awhile. He seemed to enjoy my Fun with Numbers posting the other day, and was particularly interested in Joe Mauer's hitting by count. He used what I started and wrote up something to me in an e-mail that I thought was really well thought out and should be posted here so you can comment as well. Let Brad know what you think:
I ran the numbers (hope I remembered how to do it right) and here's what I found:
When Mauer gets to 0 - 1 & thereafter:
When Mauer gets to 0-2 & thereafter (which requires "0 - 1"):
Combine the two and you get
Versus hitting .440 / .407 / .480 when he puts the "0 - 0" pitch in play.
Now I know some of those 1st pitch swings don't put the ball in play, and therefore get him down in the count 0 - 1, after which we've seen the numbers.
Here are some "quick & dirty" numbers from 2006:
In 2006, Joe put the first pitch in play in 92 of the 140 games he played (65.7%); in 2007, it's 56 of 92 (60.9%).
Now look at the 2006 numbers for the same counts (I've got to get back to work, so I'm not going to calculate every line):
0-0 line .473/.464/.636/1.101
0-1 + .324/.350/.460/.810
0- 2 .333(!)/.324.500(!)/.824(!)
0-2 + .295/.315/.393/.713
Now, part of what we're seeing in 2007 could just be Joe being somewhat human - the 2006 numbers are nuts (hitting .333 when you're down 0-2? Who does that?).
Joe is taking that first pitch even more often than he did last year.
Getting down in the count 0-1 in 2007 has had a significant effect on results (esp. compared to 2006, where Joe's numbers are nuts good).
That's as far as I can go with it right now - it'd be interesting to compare counts from 2006 to this year (not just results, but how often he got to various counts compared to # of games played, etc.).
Though my gut tells me pitchers have a better idea of how to attack Joe, and part of that plan is "just throw a strike for strike one - he's taking."
What do you think?
If you have any further thoughts, questions, comments or ideas, please e-mail me or leave Comments below.
That is it for today. Have a great weekend!|
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