In the past, I have done analysis on starts of Brad Radke and Johan Santana. I even charted pitches for JD Durbin's first start last year. I think it is interesting to learn more about a pitcher.
The Mariners have the best pitching prospect in baseball. There is so much made of the fact that he is just 19. Is he too young to handle the big leagues? There have been so many pitchers rushed to the big leagues who were even younger and they end up fading. For every Bert Blyleven there is, there are ten David Clyde's. But I think it is even fair to say that the Mariners have really been patient with Hernandez. They could have, and maybe should have had Hernandez on their Opening Day roster. He earned it. It is legitimate to say he could have been called up last summer!
Will he win 300 games in his career? Who knows? Will he throw out his arm in two years and win 15 games in his career? Who knows? But excitement about a rookie pitcher doesn't come along this often on a big league scale. Sure, when Francisco Liriano finally moves up and makes his big league debut, there will be incredible excitement, but primarily in Minnesota. Hernandez's call up is the talk of the entire league and the subject of many articles and much debate.
So, I thought it would be fun to learn a little more about the pitcher. I hope that you enjoy this analysis.
FELIX ANALYSIS
I wanted to know more about
Felix Hernandez. What do we know about him? Well, we know he
turned 19 years old during the first week of the season. We know he
throws hard, and he is known to have at least three pitches. We know
that Seattle would not allow him to throw a slider until this year
even though it was known to be incredible. We know that he pitched
this season in Tacoma, the Mariners' AAA affiliate. We also know
that he spent some time on their disabled list with a sore arm. When
he came back, he would used out of the bullpen. He made one more AAA
start and threw four no-hit innings. Then he was called up. He lost
his major league debut 3-1 against the Tigers, in Detroit last week,
but he threw well. And last night, he made his home debut against
the Twins. I wrote about Hernandez back in
February.
I wanted to find out what exactly Felix Hernandez does. What makes him so special? I also understand that the Mariners and their catchers are trying to learn more and see how he adjusts and how he gets hitters out, and what pitches he likes to throw. I was just as curious.
And after Felix Hernandez completely dominated the Twins lineup (something that isn't exactly difficult to do these days), I wanted to know how he did it!
Anyway, what I did, as I have in the past, is tracked, pitch-by-pitch, Hernandez's pitching performance. I noted which type of pitch he threw and then jotted down the speed of the pitch given on Fox Sports Net. I realize that the radar gun speed given on the telecast is subject to debate, but it's all I had to work with. So, how did he do it?
Let's start with the high level look at Hernandez performance:
IP H R ER BB SO
Felix Hernandez 8.0 5 0 0 0 6
Of the 94 pitches that Hernandez threw, 71 of them (75.5%) were strikes. 67% is generally considered very good so Hernandez was great!
Here is a breakdown of the type of pitch that Hernandez threw.
Fastball - 59 (62.8%)
Curveball/Slider - 23 (24.5%)
Change Up - 12 (12.7%)
Here are the number of pitches he threw each inning and the type of pitch:
1st inning - 17 pitches (14 fastball, 3 curveball)
2nd inning - 10 pitches (5 fastball, 5 curveball)
3rd inning - 12 pitches (10 fastball, 2 curveball)
4th inning - 13 pitches (8 fastball, 5 curveball)
5th inning - 15 pitches (12 fastball, 2 curveball, 1 changeup)
6th inning - 11 pitches (3 fastball, 4 curveball, 4 changeup)
7th inning - 8 pitches (4 fastball, 1 curveball, 3 changeup)
8th inning - 8 pitches (3 fastball, 1 curveball, 4 changeup)
Total - 94 pitches (59 fastball, 23 curveball, 12 changeup)
It was interesting to me that
Hernandez was able to maintain the velocity on his fastball
throughout the game. The other thing that really stood out to me is
that he didn't even show his changeup until the fifth inning. Once
he used it, he relied on it to get big outs. So, last night, we saw
three better than average big league pitches; hard, heavy fastball
with movement, sharp 12 to 6 curveball, and a great changeup.
Fastball Curveball Changeup
1st inning - 96.6 84.7 N/A
2nd inning - 96.2 83.6 N/A
3rd inning - 96.4 82.0 N/A
4th inning - 96.6 83.0 N/A
5th inning - 96.1 83.5 82.0
6th inning - 96.3 82.5 83.5
7th inning - 95.8 81.0 83.7
8th inning - 95.7 82.0 79.8
Just to show how consistently hard Hernandez was throwing, here were the speeds of his fastballs:
94 mph - 3
95 mph - 7
96 mph - 22
97 mph - 23
98 mph - 4
Did Hernandez alter the pitches he threw each time through the batting order? The Twins had one hit the first time through the order (a Shannon Stewart slow roller down the third base line). They had two hits the second time through and just one hit the third time through the order. Hernandez then got the Twins top two hitters, Shannon Stewart and Nick Punto, on one pitch each in their 4th plate appearances.
Time Through Order FB FB% CB CB% CU CU% Total Pitches
1st 29 74.3% 10 25.7% 0 0.0 % 39
2nd 20 71.4% 7 25.0% 1 3.6 % 28
3rd 10 40.0% 5 20.0% 10 40.0% 25
4th (2 batters) 0 0.0% 1 50.0% 1 50.0% 2
So what does this show? In my opinion, it shows very little. Maybe the Twins did try to be more patient their first time through the order, but after that, they were more aggressive, realizing that Hernandez was on last night and throwing a lot of strikes. Putting all of this together, it really just verifies the fact that Hernandez relies primarily on his fastball, but is willing also to throw his other pitches at any time.
Hernandez was so dominant last night. He only had two 3 ball counts. Here is a quick look at the pitches he threw on each count:
FB CB CU
0-0 22 5 2
0-1 6 3 5
0-2 2 3 1
1-0 6 2 0
1-1 5 3 2
1-2 4 3 1
2-0 1 0 0
2-1 6 0 0
2-2 4 3 1
3-0 0 0 0
3-1 2 0 0
3-2 2 0 0
Do first pitch strikes matter? I would say that they matter to a pitcher who does not have control or a great fastball. However, at least last night, Hernandez had great control and threw smoke! Last night, he threw first pitch strikes to just 21 of 29 batters. Of those 29 batters, he started 22 of them off with a fastball (2 with a changeup and 5 with a curveball).
SUMMARY
I think that it is fair to say that Felix Hernandez met the hype last night. He appears to be the real deal. Sure, it was one game. Sure, it was against the Twins lineup. But not only did he put up strong numbers, but everything about the performance points to a potentially incredible future for the 19 year old. He has the low cap with his glove up to his face, a la Scott Erickson circa 1991. His motion is powerful and his arm is whip-like, however, his delivery and follow through are smooth. He throws a hard fastball that moves and appears heavy coming off hitters bats. His curveball is sharp and breaks a foot! His changeup is delivered with the same veracity of his fastball, yet flies to the plate 12-15 mph slower. Seattle fans don't have a lot to get excited about. However, the future of Felix Hernandez should make every Mariners' fan very happy!
Now, to bring this back to the Twins, I should say that I am sorry for not tracking the pitches of Twins starter Kyle Lohse who was excellent again last night! He gave up just a run in the 7th inning and really pitched every bit as well as Hernandez. Secondly, seeing these numbers and velocities makes me even more excited to see Francisco Liriano. Liriano's fastball is about the same. While listening to the Red Wings morning game yesterday, he struck out a left-handed batter on three straight sliders. Their velocities were 88, 89 and then 91 mph. He also has a strong changeup. It is fun to see a rookie, a player this young especially a pitcher, have this type of success. It will be good for the league!