Thursday, August 4, 2005
JULY GRADES - Pitchers
Good morning everybody! You've probably been waiting for it, but it is time for the July grades. Again this month, I will start with the pitchers and tomorrow will grade the hitter's "performance" in July.
But first... yesterday I got my new Baseball America issue in the mail. It is their annual "Tools" issue. In it, they name the top three players in a number of categories. They also do similar rankings for each minor league level. So, where did some Twins rank in certain categories? Here you go:
Best Changeup - Johan Santana (#1) with Mark Buehrle #2 and Jamie Moyer #3.
Best Control - Brad Radke (#1), Carlos Silva (#2) with Roy Halladay #3.
Best Defensive OF - Torii Hunter (#2) with Ichiro (#1) and Mark Kotsay (#3)
Best OF Arm - Torii Hunter (#3) with Ichiro (#1) and Vlad Guerrero (#2)
Best Manager - Ron Gardenhire (#2) with Mike Scioscia (#1) and Joe Torre (#3)
Minor Leagues
International League Best Pitching Prospect - Francisco Liriano, Rochester
International League Best Fastball - Travis Bowyer, Rochester
International League Best Reliever - Travis Bowyer, Rochester
Indianapolis Manager Trent Jewett on Liriano: "He's filthy. We're talking three big league pitches, and everything looks easy. I saw him in the bullpen the day after his start and he looked like he was self-operating. He pounds the zone with all his stuff and he hold runners-well, he held our only runner- very well. He's a left with power stuff. You can't ask for too much more."
Florida State League, Best Strike-Zone Judgment - Denard Span, Fort Myers (now at New Britain)
Florida State League, Best Infield Arm - Matt Moses, Fort Myers (now at New Britain)
Florida State League, Most Exciting Player - Matt Moses, Fort Myers (now at New Britain)
Midwest League, Best Pitching Prospect - Anthony Swarzak, Beloit (now at Fort Myers)
Ok, now, let's take a look at the Twins pitchers and see how they did in the season's fourth month and please feel free to comment, even disagree:
PITCHERS
THE STARTERS
SCOTT BAKER
(2 starts, 12 Innings, 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP, 7.5 K/9)
He had pitched just one big league inning, in relief, before this month. But then he made two starts for the Twins in July, and was excellent in both. Good ERA. Decent strikeouts. Great WHIP! His first big league win! Is there anyone who has any doubt that, RIGHT NOW, he is the Twins FOURTH best starter? He has even had his best month at Rochester when he hasn't been with the Twins. OH, and he and his wife became parents for the first time! What a month!
July Grade: A-
May Grade: A
KYLE LOHSE
(6 starts, 35.2 Innings, 1-4 with a 4.29 ERA, 14 walks, 16 strikeouts, 1.74 WHIP, 4.04 K/9)
Another bad Lohse month, although, his ERA was down almost a run a game compared to June. However, the BB:K ratio is horrible; his WHIP is awful! It was just another bad month for Lohse. Why he was not traded when it appeared that there were actually teams that were interested in him is beyond me! Ship
July Grade: D+
June Grade: C-
May Grade: A-
April Grade: D
JOE MAYS
(5 Starts, 25.2 Innings, 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA, 7 walks, 15 strikeouts, 1.79 WHIP, 5.26 K/9)
Mays shows flashes, but July was NOT a good month at all for Mays. I guess his strikeout rate increased. Generally that is good, but his WHIP and ERA both took a tumble. It is really too bad because had he shown any pitching late in the month, the Twins could have traded him. But he was awful, and he's still a Twin. Will he be next month? I kind of doubt it!
July Grade: D
June Grade: C+
May Grade: B
April Grade: B
BRAD RADKE
(5 Starts, 35.1 Innings, 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA, 3 walk, 16 strikeouts, 0.93 WHIP, 4.08 K/9)
So, starting pitching has kept the Twins in most games in the last month, right? The leader of that pack is none other than Brad Radke. Just look at his numbers in July... they are remarkable. Sure, his strikeouts went down, but he gave up less than a base runner an inning. He averaged over seven innings a start. He, as usual, walked no one! This was by far Radke's best month of the year. It is unfortunate that he continues to get almost zero run support!
July Grade: A
June Grade: C-
May Grade: B+
April Grade: B-
JOHAN SANTANA
(5 Starts, 31.1 Innings, 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA, 7 walks, 23 strikeouts, 1.44 WHIP, 6.61 K/9)
Johan had another decent month. His strikeout total was well below what he normally gets. Udsually he gets more than one per inning. But part of that could be a factor of who he was pitching against. Pitching against teams like the Yankees and Angels means that you won't get as many Ks, so that doesn't bother me much. He averaged an extra base runner every other inning more than Radke. The BB:K rate is good. The ERA is well better than average. And, he actually got a few wins to show for it.
July Grade: B+
June Grade: B-
May Grade: B
April Grade: A-
CARLOS SILVA
(5 Starts, 36.1 Innings Pitched, 1-2 with a 2.72 ERA. 2 walk, 18 strikeouts, 1.05 WHIP, 4.46 K/9)
Silva got three more outs in his five starts than even Radke, so he was excellent. His walks totals are amazing. The ERA was great. The WHIP is incredible for a guy who gives up a lot of hits. Even his strikeout total was better. The only negative is that he allowed six home runs which was more than any other Twins starter in July. Silva has been great all season. Unfortunately, the Win total just isn't fair. Which is why the Win statistic is the most over-rated in baseball. Well, right there with the Save!
July Grade: A-
June Grade: B-
May Grade: B+
April Grade: A
THE BULLPEN
JESSE CRAIN
(12 Games, 10.2 Innings, 2-1 with a 9.28 ERA, 10 walks, 3 strikeouts, 2.16 WHIP, 2.53 K/9)
Going into the month, Crain's ERA was hovering around 1.00. It was his turn for his bad month, and Crain did that well. People continually discuss his lack of strikeouts and how it would catch up with him. So, is his strikeout rate the reason that he was so bad? I would absolutely disagree. I happen to think that the biggest cause of his trouble in July were those ten walks! That's one per inning, which is Romero territory! Even in a bad month, Crain somehow went 2-1 (his first loss in his career), which again makes the Win statistic meaningless.
July Grade: D
June Grade: A-
May Grade: A
April Grade: B+
MATT GUERRIER
(7 Games, 12 Innings, 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1.58 WHIP, 4.50 K/9)
I am still surprised by how little Guerrier has been used this month. This was his first off-month, and even so, it wasn't horrible. I guess it is likely because the Twins starters have been getting into the seventh inning in most cases and the other relievers should be in those situations. Obviously the BB:K rate of 1:1 is not good, but it has to be hard for him when he pitches so infrequently and inconsistently.
July Grade: C
June Grade: A-
May Grade: B
April Grade: B
TERRY MULHOLLAND
(7 Games, 11 Innings, 0-0 with a 7.36 ERA, 4 walks, 1 strikeouts, 2.00 WHIP, 0.82 K/9)
Likewise, Mulholland has been used very inconsistently, and in varying situations. One game, he comes in in the 8th inning of a tie game for one out. The next outing, he's in to eat up some innings. And it is safe to say that for the second consecutive month, Mulholland was not good in either situation. Like I said yesterday, there is a role for a guy like Mulholland on a team that is winning. Right now, the Twins aren't winnings and are essentially out of playoff contention. They should be playing for 2006 and Mulholland should not be a part of that plan. Like Mays, I would be shocked if Mulholland is in a Twins uniform this time next month.
July Grade: D
June Grade: D-
May Grade: A-
April Grade: D
JOE NATHAN
(10 Games, 11.1 Innings, 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA, 8 Saves, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts, 0.62 WHIP, 11.12 K/9)
After a couple of really rough months for Nathan, he finally got back to what we saw throughout the 2004 season. Dominance, as measured by strikeouts and WHIP and ERA. But I also think that he finally regained his control and stopped walking hitters. All of the Twins top relievers have "stuff", but when they get in hitter's counts or put runners on base for free, that is when they get in trouble. It is good to see Nathan closing the door at the end of games.
July Grade: A
June Grade: D
May Grade: C-
April Grade: A
JUAN RINCON
(13 Games, 13.2 Innings, 0-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 6 walks, 11 strikeouts, 1.39 WHIP, 7.24 K/9)
Again, the walk number is high which is not good. Surprisingly, Rincon did not strikeout nearly as many batters per inning as he normally does. His WHIP is a little high. But overally, it was a good month for Rincon. Decent ERA (Which means little for a reliever), Rincon did his job in 11 of the 13 games he came into.
July Grade: B
June Grade: B+
May Grade: C+
April Grade: B+
JC ROMERO
(12 Games, 10 Innings, 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 11 walks, 7 strikeouts, 2.00 WHIP, 6.30 K/9)
Ah, JC... where do I start. 11 walks in 10 innings? That would be a good place! If I'm reading the stats correctly, he has also allowed 15 of 32 inherited runners to score. That is awful. Of course, those runners are not charged to him, making his 1.80 ERA less impressive. That WHIP is horrible. The K/9 is awful for him. Romero's value was high before the trade deadline, for reasons I may never understand, and they did not unload him, and I may never understand why.
July Grade: C+
June Grade: B-
May Grade: B
April Grade: B+
So, there are my July Grades for the Minnesota Twins pitchers. Again, tomorrow I will post my grades for June for the Twins hitters. I would love to hear you thoughts or comments on any of them. Please feel free to agree or disagree and let me know why. Send me an e-mail.
OK, I probably shouldn't admit this, but I got chills when Michael Cuddyer hit the two-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the 7th against Kiko Calero that gave the Twins a 3-2 lead at the time. There are a number of reasons for that beyond the fact that I was worried that Twins play-by-play man Dick Bremer was hardly audible because he was yelling so loud in his excitement. First, when was the last time that the Twins hit a non-solo home run? Second, when was the last time that a Twins player hit a meaningful home run, one that changed the score from a deficit to a lead. Third, the crowd, full of Lutherans for Lutherans Night, actually got into the game and showed some life for the first time in seemingly forever.
There are plenty more reasons, but my reason was because it came off of the bat of Michael Cuddyer. It was his second home run of the game, and his third in the last two games. Why would that give me chills? Well, I have to admit that, in part, it is because it gives some credence to my continued support of Cuddyer as an offensive option. I have continued to write on this site that he needs to be in the lineup every day. Even when he was benched in June, he had the Twins third best OPS of the month. Sure, he previously had not hit many home runs and struck out far too much. However, he gets on base, hits some doubles and his previous home runs this season were all of the variety that gave me hope that there is still a lot of power potential in Cuddyer. It is also fun for me because I really feel like one of very few Cuddyer supporters. Just in the last 24 hours, I have responded to at least a half-dozen e-mails, or people in conversation, regarding Cuddyer. I told a few people that I think that Cuddyer should absolutely be an untouchable, and a guy who should play every day, a guy who should be in the 2006 plans. Of course, I also will continue to say that his best defensive position is 2B, and I think that his offense would improve with the position change. Play Punto, or Terry Tiffee, or Luis Rodriguez at 3B. They're just fine defensively at the hot corner. I have also frequently said that if there were one Twins player that I would love to sit down and have a conversation with, it would be Cuddyer. So, call me crazy, or whatever you want, but I'm going to continue to be a Michael Cuddyer fan. I just hope it is with him still being a Minnesota Twin.
Carlos Silva was incredible again last night. He went eight strong innings. He left a couple of pitches up in the zone and was really hurt by them. A pitch right down the middle to Minnesota native Dan Johnson was deposited over the baggy to give the A's a 2-1 lead. And then a pitch up to Nick Swisher was hit for a double in the 8th inning. The A's, who are against "Productive Outs", got exactly that. Mark Ellis laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt, and Jason Kendall punched a fly ball to deep right to score Swisher for the game-tying run. But again, Silva was great and deserves the "Win."
And then when Justin Morneau did his best Randy Bush slide impersonation eluding the Jason Kendall tag at the plate, the Twins won, and I again got that weird feeling in my stomach, one we just had not felt enough especially since the All-Star break. Morneau got on with a big walk. Then Lew Ford hit a tailing liner just out of the reach of Nick Swisher for a triple. It was just a good game. Another one run game. The Twins scored their runs with two outs. It was a good win. We can hope that it is the start of a little role! Right?
Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito will go against each other at 12:10 this afternoon. The Twins hope for a win to split the four game series.
Roger posted his weekly Twins Minor League Review the other day, so be sure to check that out! Francisco Liriano and Erik Lis were the pitcher and player of the month, respectively, in the Twins organization. Here is a great article by Jim Mandelaro on Francisco Liriano's prospect status.
ROCHESTER REDWINGS
Wednesday - RED WINGS - No Game Scheduled.
NEW BRITAIN ROCKCATS
Wednesday - ROCKCATS 6, Portland 8 - Luis Jimenez went 3-4 with a walk. James Tomlin was 3-4 with his 15th double. JR Taylor went 2-4 with his first AA home run. Denard Span was also 2-4. Levale Speigner got rocked. He gave up six runs on 12 hits in just 4.1 innings. Daylan Childress took the loss by giving up a solo home run, the only hit he allowed, in 2.2 innings.
FT MYERS MIRACLE
Wednesday - MIRACLE 6, Jupiter 5 - Kyle Geiger and Scott Whitrock were each 2-5 to lead the Miracle to the one-run win. Adam Harben gave up four runs (2 earned) on just two hits, but four walks, in his 5.2 innings. He struck out six. Jannio Gutierrez allowed some inherited runners to score, but gave up none of his own runs in 1.1 innings to grab the win. Jay Sawatski picked up his 10th save by pitching a scoreless ninth inning.
BELOIT SNAPPERS
Wednesday - SNAPPERS 6, West Michigan 10 - Trevor Plouffe led the offense, going 2-4 with his 11th home run. Paul Rutgers went 2-3 with a walk, a double and two RBI. Deacon Burns hit his 8th home run. Matt Garza started and went 5.1 innings. He gave up two runs on five hits and four walks. He struck out seven. Kevin Culpepper then gave up four runs in just two innings. However, JP Martinez fell to 4-1 with his sixth blown save of the year when he gave up two runs in 1.2 innings.
ELIZABETHTON TWINS
Wednesday - Game 1 - E-Town 8, Kingsport 0 - Oswaldo Sosa went the first five innings and gave up just one hit, no walks and struck out two. Alexander Smit pitched the final two innings and did not allow a base runner. Eli Tintor led the offense going 3-4. Yancarlos Ortiz went 2-3 with a walk. Erik Lis went 2-4 with a double.
Wednesday - Game 2 - E-Town 3, Kingsport 4 - Nathan Bensko went 2-3 with his first home run. Ryan Mullins gave up three runs (2 earned) on seven hits and a walk. Danny Powers went three scoreless innings before allowing an unearned run in the 8th inning.
GULF COAST TWINS
Wednesday - GCL Twins 2, GCL Pirates 4 - Paul Kelly might be getting it together offensively. He went 3-4 yesterday. John Wilson went 2-4. Brandon McConnell started and gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings. John Williams, Patrick Bryant and Aaron Craig each pitched a scoreless inning in relief.
That's it for today! Check back tomorrow for the July Twins Hitting Grades. It may not be pretty! As always, please feel free to e-mail me your thoughts on the Twins, the minor leagues, or anything you would like to discuss.