Friday August 1, 2003

TWINS THOUGHTS

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

Overpaying for Mediocre Pitchers (and more Deadline Day Analysis)

July is over, and with it the trade deadline has passed. As I’ve mentioned time and time again, I love transactions. I love discussing transactions. Just check out Wednesday’s and Thursday’s posts regarding recent baseball trades. And, not just with baseball, check back to my discussions on the Timberwolves’ offseason transactions (trading for Sam Cassell and Ervin Johnson, signing Michael Olowokandi, and most recently, the trade for Latrell Sprewell).

But there is something special about July 31^st each year, Major League Baseball’s trade deadline for deals without the waiver process.  Teams that are contending, or close to contending are working the phones trying to add bit pieces that can make them even better, to get them to the playoffs. Teams that are already out of contention can trade some of their higher paid players to get prospects for their future.

The question always is, how much will certain players be worth in trade? Is it worth trading away a big-time prospect to get a guy who could take you deep into the playoffs, and maybe even contribute to a World Series championship.

The general theme of the day after the trade deadline past was that it was another case of the rich getting richer.  The big winners appeared to by the Yankees and the Red Sox.  I have a slightly different take on the matter. I think it’s just a couple of very smart teams with very smart GM’s making very smart trades for their teams.

Let’s take a look at the trades of the day, starting with some small ones and working toward the bigger ones.

The Royals

Yesterday, I mentioned that I thought the White Sox and Royals would make moves to better their team. The White Sox didn’t, but the Royals did make one trade.  The acquire RHP Al Levine from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for some cash. A reliever, Levine has pitched 49 innings in 35 games. His record is 3-5 with an ERA of 2.76.  The Royals added another veteran arm to their bullpen to help Jason Grimsley get the ball to the closer, Mike MacDougal.

It is my opinion that sometimes, little trades like this end up helping a team more than getting bigger names. Levine will be able to fit into the Royals bullpen. There is still talk of the Royals getting Juan Gonzalez when he comes off the Disabled List, but a player like that will have huge expectations and more pressure.

The Red Sox

The Red Sox continue to bolster their pitching staff with a really confusing trade.

July 22 – The Red Sox received LHP Scott Sauerbeck and LHP Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates for RHP Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez). There was then controversy because the Pirates had Lyon take an MRI and found a previously undisclosed injury in his shoulder. 

July 31 – The Pirates sent Lyon and Martinez back to the Red Sox along with RHP Jeff Suppan in exchange for Gonzalez and 2B Freddy Sanchez.

Big Picture, putting those two trades together, here’s the trade:

The Red Sox receive Scott Sauerbeck and Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez.

Sanchez is a top 2B prospect, who will probably slot in as the Pirates 2B for the future, if not longer.  Sauerbeck is a left-handed reliever who really helps solidify the Sox bullpen.  Jeff Suppan was one of the top pitchers on the trading block this season.

Suppan might be a good definition of the type of mediocrity that is mentioned in today’s title.  The 28 year old had pitched 8 big league seasons (with the Red Sox, Diamondbacks and Royals) before signing with the Pirates before the 2003 season. 

In those 8 seasons, here are his won-loss records:

                1-2, 1-1, 7-3, 1-7, 10-12, 10-9, 10-14, 9-16.

His ERA’s were:

                5.96, 7.54, 5.69, 5.72, 4.53, 4.94, 4.37, 5.32.

Putting those numbers together, Suppan’s career record (heading into the 2003 season) was 49-64, with a 5.03 ERA.  His K/BB ratio was 1.68. He averaged 3.01 walks and 5.04 strikeouts per 9 innings.

From those types of numbers, calling Jeff Suppan an average, or mediocre, pitcher is probably more than fair. On a positive note, Suppan is on pace to pitch more than 200 innings for the fifth straight season.

What has Suppan done this year for the Pirates that made him such a wanted man at this time?  Well, Suppan is currently 10-7 with a 3.57 ERA. His K/BB ratio is up to 2.51. He is down a full walk per 9 innings from his career average.

When looking at who Baseball Reference lists as the pitcher most similar to Jeff Suppan is Shawn Boskie!  Enough said!

Winner – The Red Sox, by far. As good as Sanchez could be, these moves make the Sox pitching staff better for this year.

The Giants

-- San Francisco acquired right-hander Sidney Ponson from Baltimore for right-hander Kurt Ainsworth, left-hander Damian Moss and left-hander Ryan Hannaman.

Interestingly, the 9^th most similar pitcher to Jeff Suppan is Sidney Ponson.  I mean, Sir Sidney Ponson, who earlier this year was decorated as a Knight in his homeland, Aruba, by Queen Beatrix of The Netherlands.  Very impressive title, far more impressive that Ponson’s career stats coming into the 2003 season! His five big league season had been all with the Baltimore Orioles.

In those five seasons, here are his won-loss records:

                8-9, 12-12, 9-13, 5-10, 7-9.

His ERA’s were:

                5.27, 4.71, 4.82, 4.94, 4.09.

Putting his numbers together, Ponson’s career record (coming into the 2003 season) was 41-53, with an ERA of 4.74. His career K/BB ratio is 1.81, while he is averaging 3.11 BB per 9 innings and 5.65 strikeouts per 9 innings.  Let me just say this, coming into this season, the most similar pitcher to Sidney Ponson according to Baseball Reference is Todd Ritchie. Let me repeat… Todd Ritchie! 

Mediocre might be too nice a word to describe Ponson’s career. These are not exactly above-average numbers for a starting pitcher. And certainly not someone worthy of a quality 2^nd year big league pitcher (Moss), a top prospect pitcher with some success in the big leagues the last couple years (Ainsworth), and a Class A left-handed pitching prospect (Hannaman).

So, what has he done in 2003 to be worth that much to the Giants?  Well, after losing to the Twins on Wednesday night, Ponson is 14-6, with a 3.77 ERA. His K/BB ration is up to 2.32.  He is averaging ½ walk less and ½ strikeout more per 9 innings.

This is a great trade for the Orioles.  Three potentially great pitchers for a sub-par pitcher who has had a solid four months this season.  The other fact is that the Orioles have a lot of money to spend next season. When Ponson becomes a free agent at the end of this season, they could outbid other teams and bring him back.  If that happens, he, Damion Moss, and a healthy Kurt Ainsworth, along with Jason Johnson, could help the Orioles pitching improve quickly.

Winner – For this year, probably the Giants. And that’s all the Giants really care about. They’re in this to win the World Series, and assuming Ponson continues to pitch as he has so far this season, he can really help achieve that. But, long term, this is a STEAL for the Orioles!

The Yankees

The Red Sox made a deal, so that meant that the Yankees had to make a trade to get better too, and they did. As a matter of fact, they made three deals.

1.)      Again, thanks to the contract dumping by the Reds, the Yankees were able to get Aaron Boone for LHP Brandon Claussen, Charlie Manning and cash.  Claussen is a very good pitching prospect. The lefty won his only game he pitched for the Yankees earlier this season.

2.)      In what’s being called a second, separate move, the Yankees also picked up Gabe White from the Reds for a player to be named later, and more cash.  White is a solid left-handed relief pitcher that is currently rehabbing a groin injury.

3.)      The third move was to trade current 3B Robin Ventura. As expected, Ventura was traded to the Dodgers in exchange for OF Bubba Crosby and P Scott Proctor.  The Dodgers are paying Ventura for the rest of the year. With that fact, the Yankees are essentially able to then pay the cash payments due to the Reds in the above trades.

Let me start with the easiest to explain.  Gabe White is a left-handed reliever.  Left-handed relievers are very important! (I think maybe I’ve mentioned once or twice that I thought the Twins could have used another left-handed relief pitcher, haven’t I?)

In the big picture for this year’s Yankees team, this trade was essentially picking up Aaron Boone to replace Robin Ventura at 3B, with prospects moving as well.

Let’s do some statistical comparisons of the two.

I think the Yankees saw a chance to pick up an All-Star who, in the last two seasons, has really improved into a consistent extra-base hitter. Because he is just 30, they should be able to sign him long-term if the next couple of months go well for him. To me, Boone is an improvement right now over Ventura, however, if you look beyond this year, this is an even better move for Boone and the Yankees.

Last year, Boone stole 32 bases (out of 40, 80%), a skill Ventura’s legs do not allow. 

Defensively, it’s probably a wash. In the past, Ventura has won six Gold Gloves. His career fielding percentage is .957 (league 3B average- .951). His Range Factor is 2.69 (league average – 2.37).  Boone doesn’t have the Gold Gloves, but does have the ability to play three infield positions. His career fielding percentage is actually .952 (league average .951) His range factor for his career is 2.61 (league average 2.52).

From all reports, Boone is a great teammate and clubhouse guy (as is Ventura), so he should have no problem fitting in with the current Yankees roster. 

This is why I have so much respect for the Yankees.  I don’t really care how much money they spend, that’s their right, that’s Mr. Steinbrenner’s right. It doesn’t mean they’re going to win the World Series every year, it just means that they give themselves a chance. Some other teams spend excessive money too, but make dumb deals. When the Yankees make trades, they don’t just look short-term, they look long-term, and this is a perfect example of that.

To me, the big question (should the Yankees keep Boone) is what happens now with Drew Henson.  Do the Yankees keep him in the minors?  Can they trade him? Will he go to the NFL?

Winner- Definitely the Yankees.  But, also, the Dodgers. Ventura is a far better option at 3B than Adrian Beltre.

Loser – The perfect word to describe the Reds organization and their transactions of the past week!

So there you have it.  The trade deadline’s big trades!  The Twins chose not to make a move yesterday, but who knows, maybe they’ll make a deal in August.   I’d love to hear your thoughts on that possibly. Send me an e-mail.

TWINS THOUGHTS –

Well, the Twins managed to come back and beat the Baltimore Orioles last night to win 2 out of 3 in the series. The win, coupled with the White Sox defeat of the Royals, leaves the Twins just 4 ½ games out of first place in the AL Central.  That was a long, ugly, not-very-well-pitched-or-played game, but sometimes games go like that and the Twins were able to pull out the win!  LaTroy Hawkins earned another win to improve to 9-3.

That is a very big win for the Twins, as they head into a 3-game weekend series with the lowly Detroit Tigers.

I’ve got to admit, watching last night’s game was very frustrating and I was ready to either not write about them at all, or probably rant some more about them. They left in the neighborhood of 18 runners on base. They left the bases loaded at least twice. In the 9th after Luis Rivas singled and Doug Mientkiewicz worked a walk, Jorge Julio struck out Jacque Jones on 3 pitches and Torii Hunter on 4 pitches. Hitting Jorge Julio can not be easy. He throws 98 (and I saw him hit 100 to Restovich once), and his slider is still 87-89 mph! But, those were two bad at bats!!!  AJ slapped that single to left with 2 strikes, and then Restovich had a not-so-good at bat and struck out, but the 3^rd strike got back catcher Brook Fordyce and went to the backstop. Restovich didn’t even realize it got by him, so got a late start for first. Fortunately, Fordyce long-hopped 1B Jeff Conine, who couldn’t handle the throw, allowing Mientkiewicz to score the tying run.

After watching the Twins game last night, I would invite everyone to check out my Twins Rants from Monday. Some of the themes that make their way into that posting are some of the things that went on again last night. But, if you feel a little frustrated about the Twins and have a lot of negative thoughts floating around inside you, please check out Wednesday’s posting where I tried really hard to find something nice to say about all of the Twins players!

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

(Re-posted from yesterday)

I introduced this section yesterday and will keep it posted through the weekend and into next week.

I would like to start a “Question of the Week” segment of this website. I will ask a question (usually on Mondays) and would like for you to think about how you would answer it, and send me an e-mail, and let me know what you think.  At the end of the week, I will put together a “mailbag” section that will have some of the best responses I get to the question.

This week’s question comes from a loyal reader named Kirk. He asked me the below question today via e-mail and it really made me think.  This week’s question is actually a 3-part question, so here you go:

1.)     If you could go back in time and have a conversation with any former major league player, who is now deceased, who would you most want to talk to, and what questions would you ask?

2.)     If you could talk to one former big leaguer, who is still alive, who would you talk to, and what would you most want to know?

3.)     If you could talk to one current major league ball player, who would it be, and what would you ask?

I think these are really interesting questions.  I have asked a couple of friends these questions already and have had some varying, very interesting responses.  Some of the players were the same as the ones I chose, but the questions that they would ask are different than the questions I would ask.

So again, here are the “rules”:

1.)     Think through the above questions.

2.)     Send me an e-mail with your thoughts.

3.)     That’s it! It’s that simple. You can then just keep checking back to this site for an upcoming article where I will use some of the responses I get.

If I get some good feedback, I will come up with a weekly discussion question.

To everyone, have a fun and safe weekend! I’ll be back on Monday!

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