Friday, July
30, 2010
Moving Day!
Before we get started, I want to let people in the Twin Cities
know that I will be on Fox 9’s Primetime show tonight at about 10:15 for a few
minutes to discuss the Twins and the trade deadline. If you have a chance to
watch it, please let me know what you think. If anyone can send it to me, or youtube it, cool!
Wilson Ramos is packing and moving today. So is Joe Testa. Matt Capps is moving, and I am moving.
The two Twins minor leaguers were traded late on Thursday night for the
Nationals All Star closer. Me? After three years of living in the Twin Cities,
I am packing up and moving back up to Warroad today and throughout this
weekend. (in other words, I don’t know if I will be
able to post any updates here, but I will be on Twitter a lot, so as I hear
anything, I’ll post some quick thoughts there. So, follow me at www.Twitter.com/SethTweets.
But to the important stuff, the Twins
acquired a bullpen arm, but at what cost? I have to be honest,
my thoughts on the deal have kind of gone back and forth in the last couple of
hours since the deal was made official. When I first read the reports that
Wilson Ramos had been pulled from the Rochester Red Wings lineup and there was
speculation that the Twins were close on Capps, I didn’t think that the Twins
would give up that much.
When I heard that the deal was official,
and complete, I was in awe, shocked that the Twins would give up their most
expendable trade prospect for a reliever that, frankly, isn’t any better than
current closer Jon Rauch.
I know I’m not a good blogger in that I
tend to look at everything from various angles, players, front office, fans and
more. So, as I was driving home, my mind was all over the place on why this
trade might make sense from the Twins perspective. Over the last few hours, I
have had several conversations with people who have asked, “why
does this move make sense for the Twins?” I have had to come up with answers,
but in the end, my general opinion of the trade does not change.
So, why is this trade good for the
Twins?
To get an established All-Star reliever
for a minor leaguer makes the 2010 Twins bullpen and roster stronger.
Specifically, he will be replacing Jon Rauch as the team’s closer and
has been a little bit better than Rauch in 2010. So, the 2010 roster is better.
Many Twins fans, and even players such as Torii Hunter and Johan
Santana frequently complained and wondered aloud when this “future” would
come, when would the future be now/ From that
perspective, the Twins did make themselves a better team in 2010 by this move.
This is that kind of move where they are giving up part of the future to help
win now.
Secondly, he is just 26 years old. Most
of these prospect-for-veteran deals involve someone in his 30s, or even on his
last wind. Capps is Young and theoretically has room for improvement.
Following the 2010 season, Rauch, Matt
Guerrier and Jesse Crain will become free
agents. Capps still has one more year of arbitration remaining, so he will be
around in 2011 as well. This provides some additional insurance for the Twins
bullpen next year, specifically if Joe Nathan is unable to pitch right away.
Finally, there are a lot of similarities
between Jon Rauch and Matt Capps. Rauch is a solid bullpen arm, so adding
another solid bullpen arm is a good thing. Capps is slightly better than Rauch,
but that’s not a ringing endorsement.
So, why is this trade questionable for
the Twins?
For this, I will start with the same
answer I gave for my final reason this is a good trade; there are a lot of
similarities between Capps and Rauch.
|
|
IP |
Hits |
BB |
K3 |
HR |
Sv/Opp |
WHIP |
ERA |
BAA |
|
Capps |
46.0 |
51 |
9 |
38 |
5 |
26/30 |
1.30 |
2.84 |
.279 |
|
Rauch |
38.1 |
43 |
9 |
27 |
3 |
21/25 |
1.36 |
3.05 |
.283 |
Most of these numbers and rates are very
similar with a slight edge going to Capps. So Capps is an improvement over
Rauch, but how much?
Yes, he will be under Twins control for
2011, but after making $3.5 million in 2010, he could make upwards of $6-7
million in 2011. That is one thing if Capps is the Twins closer, but if Joe
Nathan does come back, do we really want a Rauch-esque
8th inning guy making that kind of money? This
likely means that the Twins will not keep at least two (and possibly three) of
the current bullpen of Guerrier/Rauch/Crain.
As decent as Capps has been in 2010, he
was non-tendered by the Pittsburgh Pirates after a 2009 season in which he had
an ERA of 5.80 and a WHIP of 1.66. With 45 innings pitched this year, he is
less than ten innings from exceeding his number of innings pitched each of the last
two years. That is probably not a concern, but it is worth noting.
Capps is quite hittable, but he has
struck out more than Rauch does. It allows Rauch to move back to the 8th
inning and Crain and Guerrier and Mijares
and the rest of the bullpen to fill in starting earlier in the game. But Capps
will keep ninth innings as nerve-racking as Rauch did. Rauch will make us
equally nervous in the 8th inning. Guerrier
has been having us nervous for awhile. So, the bullpen has more decent options,
but I don’t know that I will have a lot more confidence in it.
But trading Ramos?
Listen, I fully understand that Ramos
was expendable. With Joe Mauer signed for most
of the next decade, Ramos was not necessary, even if I have illustrated a way
that they could co-exist on the same time. Despite his struggles in Rochester
(hitting about .240), he remains a Top 5 prospect. He is a good defensive
catcher with a strong arm. We believe that he can hit for average and that he
has tremendous power potential. In spring training, Gardy
and nearly all of the Twins players wanted Ramos to be on the team’s Opening
Day roster. Ramos was hitting some of the longest, most impressive home runs.
And yet, Ramos has never posted an OPS of .800 in the
minor leagues. Of course, I believe that is due to development of that power
and that the still-just-22 year old will develop a lot of power. He doesn’t
walk and have particularly good plate discipline, something that could make
reaching that potential less likely.
But he is a very good prospect, to be
sure. We know that the Twins and Mariners did have a deal in the works for Cliff
Lee that centered around Ramos. Some teams seem to
think highly of Ramos. So, it makes it hard to believe that a future good defense/good
offense catcher is only worth one of the worst closers in baseball. We are not
talking about Joakim Soria
here. Again, this is not a knock on Capps as much as just being incredibly
surprised or disappointed that the Twins used their top trade chip and didn’t
get more.
As I’ve alluded to a couple of times,
the difference between Matt Capps and Jon Rauch is not very large. Last August,
the Twins acquired Rauch for Kevin Mulvey, a
pitcher who began the season last year as a bottom-of-the-Top-10 Twins
prospect. By the time that he was dealt in August, he was probably not even a
Top 20 prospect of the team. Two months ago, a Twins fan could have made an
argument that Ramos was the Twins #1 prospect (I wouldn’t have, but it could
have been made). Even with his struggles, he was still easily a Twins Top 5
prospect. It is just my opinion that the Twins could have received much more
for such a prospect.
The Nationals also receive left-handed
reliever Joe Testa in the deal. It has been a
tough year for Testa. After dominating at Beloit and
Ft. Myers in 2009, he began 2010 in AA New Britain. He struggled with control
and eventually was sent back to Ft. Myers. This is a great opportunity for him,
and he is excited about the opportunity.
SUMMARY
Matt Capps makes the 2010 Minnesota
Twins a little bit better. How much better? I don’t think he is a difference-maker,
by any means. I think Wilson Ramos is a very good prospect and that he was
expendable for the Twins. I just think they could have received something more
for him. But maybe they really couldn’t and this was the best they could
actually get for him. If that is true, I personally think they should have kept
him. The Nationals signed Capps to a one year deal after he was non-tendered by
the Pirates in the offseason and were able to turn him into a great young
catching prospect who could be a key contributor to their club for the next
decade.
Capps takes Ramos’s spot on the 40 man
roster, but whose spot will he take on the 25 man roster? Who will be sent to
Rochester to take Ramos’s roster spot there? I can’t help but think it would be
Nick Blackburn although the Red Wings may need another catcher beyond Danny
Lehmann who is there by himself now. So, it could be Jose Morales, but it also
could be Nick Blackburn (so the Twins don’t have 13 pitchers) with someone like
Allan de San Miguel heading back to Rochester.
If you have any thoughts on the trade
and its affect on the Twins, feel free to leave them
here. If there are other deals around baseball over the weekend, please
feel free to discuss them here as well. I will likely not have internet access
until Monday up north.
Here is a quick glance at what
happened on Thursday in the Twins minor league system:
Red Wings Report
Jacque Jones had two hits
including his 20th double and drove in four runs, but it wasn’t
enough in the Red Wings 13-6 loss to Gwinnett. David Bromberg started and gave
up three runs on seven hits and a walk in five innings. Brad Hennessey then
gave up three runs and got just one out. Tim Lahey
got the final two outs of the 6th inning but not before he gave up
two more runs. Jose Lugo got one out, but he gave up five more runs. Pat Neshek got the last two outs of the seventh inning. Then
Rob Delaney pitched a scoreless inning during which he struck out two (which
means that he has struck out eight of the last nine batters that he has faced).
New Britain Notes
A three run lead going into the
ninth inning was not enough and New Britain lost 8-7 to Bowie. Bobby Lanigan started and gave up four runs on eight hits in five
innings. Cole DeVries then got four outs without
allowing a run. Carlos Gutierrez went the next 1.2 innings without giving up a
run. But he started the ninth inning and gave up four runs in the ninth. He
left the game with the based loaded, and Chris Province came in and gave up two
hits and a walk to blow the save and give Gutierrez the loss. Chris Parmelee remains white hot. He was 3-4 with his 17th
double. Joe Benson had two hits including his 16th AA home run (and
his 20th overall). Steve Singleton was 2-4 with his third triple and
three RBI. Ben Revere was 2-5. Erik Lis was 2-4 with
his seventh AA homer and three RBI.
Miracle Matters
Bruce Pugh is back! The righty recorded his
fifth win of the year (in the Miracle’s 3-2 win) with nine innings of two-run
ball. He gave up just two hits, walked none and struck out eight. He left after
nine innings in a 2-2 game. But Chris Hermann drove in a run on a single in the
10th, and Dakota Watts pitched a scoreless bottom of the 10th
for the save. Brian Dozier and Nick Romero each went 3-5. Romero added his 13th
double. Angel Morales hit his second triple.
Snappers Snippets
Beloit had a nice, easy 13-1 win over Burlington. Danny
Rams was 3-5 with his 19th double and his 11th home run.
Derek McCallum was 2-5 with his 11th double. Lance Ray was 2-4.
Edgar Ibarra picks up the win. He gave up just one run on four hits in seven
innings. The lefty walked one and struck out six. Nelvin
Fuentes struck out five in two scoreless innings.
E-Twins Talkers
Elizabethton beat Johnson City 12-2. Oswaldo
Arcia went 2-5 with his 11th home run, one
of three home runs for the E-Twins. Daniel Santana hit his 6th
double and second home run in five at bats. Brian Burke was 3-5 with his
seventh double, first triple and fourth home run. Nate Roberts was 4-5 with his
third double and first triple. Jamaal Hawkins and Andy Leer were each 2-4. Martire Garcia improved to 5-0 with 5.1 strong innings. He
gave up a run on five hits and two walks. He struck out ten. Michael Tonkin
came in and gave up a run on two hits in 2.2 innings. He did not allow a walk
and struck out six. Logan Darnell pitched a scoreless ninth.
GCL Twins Topics
The GCL Twins won 7-2 over the Rays. Justin Parker gave
up one run on six hits and a walk in five innings. Steve Hirschfeld
struck out two in a perfect inning in his second rehab game. Matt Schuld gave up a run on three hits in two innings. Nick Alloway struck out two in a one-hit inning. Matt Parker was
2-3 with a walk and a double. JaDamion Williams went
2-4 with his second double. Rory Rhodes went 2-5.
Any thoughts on the trade, the Twins
or the minor league system? Feel free to leave your
questions and comments here.