Tuesday July 6, 2004

RANDOM THOUGHTS... and REWIND

 

Hi! I hope everyone had a wonderful Fourth of July weekend. Mine was just lovely, thanks!

The Twins start a four game series with the Kansas City Royals before playing the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. It will be a big week for the Twins to play well. It would be very good to head into the All-Star break on a positive note this year! The White Sox, the Indians and the Tigers are all playing fairly well now.

Speaking of the All-Star team, as expected, only Joe Nathan will represent the team. He has been incredible all season for the Twins and is very worthy of the recognition. As always, there are questionable selection. But there are many more who people believed were snubbed. I really can't argue with any of the selections though this year. Yeah, they don't exactly match my American League or National League All-Star picks, but that doesn't mean they are wrong. It is interesting that the Tigers and Indians will each have more players in the All-Star Game than the Twins and White Sox, who are actually leading in the division, will have just one a piece. However, I selected Indians' Matt Lawton, CC Sabathia and Victor Martinez, and mentioned Ron Belliard. I selected Tigers' Ivan Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen. People will argue that Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko should have made the team, and they both are good choices, but because of the fans voting in Jason Giambi, it hurt their arguments. Especially after Carlos Beltran was traded and 1B Ken Harvey became the only legitimate Royals option.

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VOTE FOR LEWWWWWWWWWWWW

OK, as of right now, Joe Nathan is the lone Twins rep on the AL All-Star team. However, you can still get another Twin onto the team. Fans can vote for the 32nd member of the roster. Twins OF Lew Ford is one of five players who could still be voted on to the team. Ford is joined by Travis Hafner, Hideki Matsui, Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko are on the online ballot. Go here and vote for Lew Ford as many times as you can. Lets help make Lew Ford and All-Star!

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Brad Radke was awesome last night! The righty threw the team's first complete game and first complete game shutout of the season against the Kansas City Royals weak lineup. The Twins got six second-inning runs. The highlight was a two-run shot by Jacque Jones that made it 2-0. The homer came off of lefty Jimmy Gobble. Lew Ford led the Twins with three hits, and two were doubles. Joe Mauer, Doug Mientkiewicz and Nick Punto each had two hits for the Twins.

But Radke was the story. He went the distance and threw just 102 pitched, 74 of which were strikes. He gave up just four hits, walked none and struck out four.

Tonight, the Twins and Royals play again. Johan Santana faces Royals rookie Zach Greinke.

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Over the weekend, the Twins won two of three from the Diamondbacks. Joe Mauer was moved to the three-hole in the Twins lineup, with Lew Ford moving up to the second spot and Doug Mientkiewicz down to #7. Mauer continued to mash, even hitting his sixth homer of the season on Saturday night. I think it is important for Mauer to remember that he needs the same approach whether he is hitting eighth or third. I think a lot of hitters struggle with that. They move to a different place in the order and then they change the type of hitter they are. I don't think that will be a problem with Joe Mauer.

Also, we continue to hear Twins players like Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones talking about how the team and the players are different when Shannon Stewart is in the lineup. Hopefully he will be able to play again within a week or so. However, these guys have been in the league long enough that they should be able to make adjustments on their own. Lew Ford has more than replaced Stewart in the lineup. Other people's perceived failures are their own faults.

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Last night, the Rochester Redwings won. David Gassner won his 10th game of the year. Jason Kubel was 3-4, and Justin Morneau cracked his 21st homer of the season. BJ Upton hit his 11th homer for Durham.

For other Twins minor league information, please check out the Team Sites on the left.

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Welp, I am going to end this for now. I thought it would be fun to take a look back at an entry I wrote after the Twins lost to the Yankees in last year's playoffs (Oct. 9th, 2003). It was my thoughts on what the Twins should do for 2004. I was write on a couple of things. I was more than wrong on a couple of others. My roster does not look exactly like it currently stands. I like to think I was right about Lew Ford. I was definitely wrong in thinking that Joe Mauer would spend another season in the minors, as well as how much AJ Pierzynski would make in arbitration! So, here you go. I hope you enjoy:

  So… Now What?

OK, it’s been four days since the Twins’ season ended with their 3-1 series loss to the Yankees. It’s been enough time for me to be OK. Now I’m ready to give my take on what the Twins should be doing as they are planning for their 2004 season. First, I’m going to go through who I think will be on the 2004 roster. I happen to think that the Twins can maintain a budget of approximately $60 million for next season, keep a majority of the current players, and replace others with some prospects, prospects who’s ceilings may be just as high anyway. I think the team can not only compete in the AL Central, but win the weak division.  I have no way of knowing who the Twins would receive if certain players would be traded, so my roster will be comprised of players currently in the Twins organization. So, I will present who I believe the Twins should have on the roster, then I will take a look at those that I really don’t think should be back.

So, here you go, position-by-position, Seth’s Minnesota Twins 2004 Opening Day roster:

Position Players (14)

Catcher

AJ Pierzynski - ($1 million) - Obviously the question is: When will Joe Mauer be ready? There is some speculation that the Twins may trade Pierzynski this offseason, but I think it would take an amazing offer to pry him from the Twins. The reason, we’ve seen how the Twins seem to want to handle rookies and young players, so I can’t see them just giving Joe Mauer the catchers job. And, Pierzynski is a decent defensive catcher, and a very solid hitting catcher, who did increase his power numbers somewhat this season.

Matthew Lecroy - ($350,000) - Lecroy will be on the team. He was given the DH job for most of the second half of the season. With Morneau around, Lecroy should get some AB’s at the DH and 1B positions as well throughout the season. Yes, I have him listed as a backup catcher, but I can still see him playing five games a week.

First Base

Doug Mientkiewicz - (arbitration eligible - should receive between $3.5 million and $4 million). His defense is just so amazing. It saves the team so many runs throughout a season, and the pitchers extra pitches in innings. But he had another very strong offensive year. No, he will never be the 40 home run bopper at 1B that so many people seem to want, but that’s ok. With his wrist surgery the other day, I really hope he is able to stay healthy for the whole season. I really like his approach at the plate too.

Justin Morneau  - (probably $310,000) - Because of Mientkiewicz’s wrist though, I think it is important that Ron Gardenhire get Justin Morneau some time at 1B as well. Once or twice a week, Mientkiewicz should just get a day off, even if he doesn’t want it. Mientkiewicz is important and they need to keep him healthy, so treating him almost like a catcher would be smart. Morneau needs to play almost every day! We saw him play 1B some the last week of the season and see that he can make the routine play, so if he plays 1B twice a week, that’s good. He should DH the other games!

Second Base

Luis Rivas - (arbitration eligible, should receive between $750,000 and $1 million) - Remember that Rivas is still just 24. He’s still worth keeping around for a relatively cheap dollar amount. His numbers still weren’t good, even for a 2B. But from time to time, he showed flashes that show the potential we all want him to achieve. That said, 2004 is a huge year for Rivas. If he continues to play like he did last year, he will not be back. If he struggles early, he could become a utility player!

Alex Prieto - ($300,000)Really probably just the second utility infielder. He’s not a great player, but could be a good defensive replacement if anything happens to Rivas or Guzman. And, he’s cheap.

Third Base

Michael Cuddyer - (325,000) - As you probably realize, this means that the Twins would not pick up the $4.5 million option for Corey Koskie. Cuddyer showed during the final weeks of the regular season that he could do a good job at 3B. Sure, Koskie is possibly Gold Glove caliber, but Cuddyer’s got a strong arm and good instincts. Corey Koskie is one of my favorite Twins people and characters. I think he’s a very good hitter. He’s just so injury-prone. What I would like to see happen is that the Twins decline to pick up Koskie’s option, and see if he would sign for half of that!  If so, Cuddyer should then be given the RF job or the 2B job and stick with it! (Note - if he’s given the RF job, that would affect Restovich, Ryan or Ford’s spot on the roster.  If he is given the 2B job, Rivas becomes the utility infielder and either Gomez or Prieto wouldn’t be there).

Shortstop

Cristian Guzman -  ($3.5 million) - Another guy who really needs to play better in 2004. No, he won’t be a power hitter. No, he won’t drive in runs. He’s a speed guy and needs to use it. Has really improved his defense the last couple of years, at least with making the routine plays. It will be interesting for both Rivas and Guzman to see how the new turf in the Dome next year will affect them, especially defensively. I also think that Guzman needs to step up, and even if he doesn’t like leading off, he may need to do so.

Chris Gomez - ($600,000) - I don’t know if Gomez will be back, and if he is, it is very possible he could get a shot at the every day 2B job. Given actual playing time, Gomez showed he can be a valuable player to a team. He didn’t ever receive consistent playing time after knee surgery in June.

Left Field

Jacque Jones - ($4.35 million) - I think Jones will be back, and I think he will be back in left field. It was frustrating at times watching Jones play, especially against left-handers, but I mainly mean because of the lingering effects of his groin injury. I look forward to Jones coming back healthy and putting up some really great numbers next year, especially a return of the power he showed in 2002! All that said, it is time for Ron Gardenhire to admit that Jacque Jones can not hit a decent left-handed pitcher. And, he needs to give Jones the day off on those games! As I mentioned the other day, I can no longer blame Jones for his inability to hit lefties as much as I will blame Gardy for continuing to play him against them!

Michael Restovich - ($315,000) - So, against left-handers, the Twins need a platoon guy in LF. I can see that being Michael Restovich early in the season. Restovich played very well when given the opportunity those two weeks in August and deserves this opportunity, even if it means playing just two or three times per week. He’s a big, powerful hitter who may also be given an early shot at the full-time rightfield job as well. Jones is in the last year of his current contract, and Restovich could be the full-time leftfielder in 2005.

Center Field

Torii Hunter - ($6 million) - The money increases, so do the expectations. I think, especially early in the year, that Hunter was pressing. He started off poorly and really never made the adjustments, until the post-season. He started the year taking a lot of walks, but his plate-discipline really deteriorated as the year went on. That said, a poor year from Hunter still accounted for 26 homer runs and over 100 RBI. Best CF in baseball… well, outside of Andruw Jones, and that’s maybe even debatable.

Right Field

Lew Ford - (310,000) - As I see it right now, Lew Ford should be the every day RF to start the season. With Shannon Stewart not appearing on my list, I think Lew Ford is best suited to be a leadoff hitter. Defensively, he’s adequate. He’s got OK range and an average arm. But, his approach at the plate is something I raved about whenever he got plate appearances this season. He takes pitches. He swings only at good pitches. He’s got some pop and puts the ball in play. If the Twins go with Restovich as the every day right fielder, Ford would then become the 4^th outfielder and probably platoon with Jones in LF.

Michael Ryan - (310,000)- Ryan’s September showing makes him a definite candidate for either the RF job, the 4^th or 5^th outfielder and a left-handed bat off the bench. He’s pretty good defensively and can play all three OF positions. He catches what he gets to (if he can see it, that is). He showed pop in his playing time too.

Designated Hitter

Justin Morneau - (310,000) - It’s time.  He needs to play 5-6 times per week. Should DH 4 or 5 times a week and play 1B once or twice a week. His power potential is huge. He needs to be allowed to struggle and make adjustments while playing.

Matthew Lecroy - ($350,000) - Lecroy can DH a couple of times per week, and catch a couple times each week, and even play 1B from time to time.

Pitchers (11)

Starting Pitchers (5)

Johan Santana - (arbitration-eligible, should receive about $1 million, hopefully the team will sign him long-term) - Johan has shown he should have been a starter all along. His ability to strike people out and to mix three great pitches make him very tough to hit. Hopefully, he’ll be able to approach 200 innings in 2004. If so, Cy Young Awards could be in his future!

Brad Radke - ($10 million) - Radke is making huge money! He proved in the second half of the season that he is a big-game type of pitcher. Worth that kind of money?  Well, only if he can perform the whole season the way he did in the second half. I’d like to see him pitch 230 or so innings.

Eric Milton - ($9 million) - Milton, like Radke, will be in the final season of his current contract. He too will be making some big money. The work he put in to get back to the Twins in September was remarkable. Hopefully he has no set backs over the winter and can come back and approach, or hopefully exceed, where he was before the knee injury. I think he can do it. I think he can provide 220 innings and pitch some big innings for the Twins.

Kyle Lohse - ($450,000) - Lohse had a very good season this year. Take away about a 4-6 week period around the All-Star Game, and Lohse could have had a special season. We’ve seen what he can do. He throws hard, and has the change up and curve ball to go with it. He just needs to be able to control those other pitches to take his game to the next level. Not bad for a #4 starter!

Grant Balfour - ($310,000) - I think that the 5^th starter spot will be heavily contested during spring training. There are a number of good options (Balfour, Rincon, Pulido, Thomas, Durbin and others). But I would start with Balfour. I also think that the #5 starter should be a true #5 starters, meaning that he’d only get sport starts when the team didn’t have off days.

Left-Handed Relief Pitchers (2)

JC Romero - (arbitration-eligible, will probably get around $750,000) - Romero took about five steps backward in 2003. Dominant in 2002, Romero could not control any of his pitches in 2003. It’s a big year for Romero too, especially if he ever wants to make any real money!

Carlos Pulido - ($310,000) - I think that Pulido is not only a great story, but also not a bad pitcher. He had a lot of success at AAA, then did well once called to the Twins. When he pitched in relief, he pitched well!

Right-Handed Relief Pitchers (3)

LaTroy Hawkins - ($4 million) - The first of the Big 2 relievers, I think that the Twins will try their best to keep Hawkins around. His performance the past two seasons has been amazing! He’s the most dominant right-handed set up man in the league. That said, he will get a lot of huge offers from throughout the league. I hope the Twins can keep him! I see a 3 year deal worth about $15 million ($4 million in 2004, $5 million in 2005, $6 million in 2006).

Juan Rincon - ($320,000) - Juan Rincon would clearly be the Minnesota Twins 2003 rookie of the year. What a year he had! When he was called up, he pitched infrequently and sporadically. As the year went on, Rincon proved himself a pretty good pitcher. He throws 95 and has a good slider. Perfect for a set up guy! He deserves a shot as the #5 starter, but I do think he is very valuable in the role he performed in this year.

Jesse Crain - ($300,000) - Crain is a big-time prospect. A 2^nd round pick in 2002, Crain climbed through the Twins system this year, staring in Class A and getting better as he progressed to AAA. Currently, he is on the Team USA team (with Joe Mauer and JD Durbin). He throws 98 mph and seems polished. He could be brought along slowly in this role.

Closer (1)

Eddie Guardado - ($4.5 million) - Well, I think Part 2 of the Big 2 will also sign (I see contracts of approximately $4.5 million in 2004, $5.5 million in 2005 and $6.5 million in 2006). I just think that the Twins value pitching and defense so much, they will make every effort to keep their two best relievers intact if they can (although, I think the Yankees and Braves will put a strong effort to add them!) I never feel overly confident with Guardado coming in for the 9^th, but he’s been very successful in his 2 seasons as the Twins closer.

So, there you have it, my look at a potential 2004 roster. If you add up those contracts, it comes to under $54 million. But, don’t forget that the Twins will be paying injured Joe Mays $5.75 million to rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Hopefully the Twins will be able to collect some insurance on Mays contract. If Terry Ryan can convince owner Carl Pohlad that this team can win, I think he’d OK this roster.

You may be asking yourself, what would the possible lineups look like? Well here are a couple of attempts, one against righties and one against lefties:

Who’s Gone??

Corey Koskie - As I mentioned, I would love for him to be back. I really would. I think he can be so good. He just needs to stay healthy, and if he could, then the $4.5 million is really a very fair deal.

Dustan Mohr - Younger, better 5^th outfield options. I love Mohr’s hustle, and because Gardy seems to love him so much, he may be back. I hope not, and I hope he can go somewhere that he would get a chance to contribute.

Rick Reed - And not soon enough. Fortunately, he whined about injuries all year and went on the DL enough times that he didn’t reach the number of innings necessary for his $8 million option to be picked up. And there is much rejoicing in the clubhouse and among Twins fans!

Denny Hocking - I’m guessing he’ll sign a contract to play in Anaheim for next year. If not, I wouldn’t mind him staying with the Twins as a utility man, if he’s willing to sign for about $450,000.

Shannon Stewart - So important to the Twins second half run, but I just can’t see them giving him the money that I would assume he’s earned with this performance. He made $6 million this year (all paid by the Blue Jays) and I don’t think the Twins can justify him making that much with all of their outfield prospects. If they do, and I’m not saying it would be a bad thing, then they need to trade Jacque Jones and a couple of their other outfield prospects. So, to Shannon, Thank You, and good luck!

Kenny Rogers - I can’t see the Twins paying a couple million to a 5^th starter in 2004. Pitchers one through four appear set, and I hope the Twins go young with their #5 and don’t give the other starters extra days off. He would be good depth in case of injury though. Despite average (at best) numbers this season, Rogers was very valuable to the Twins.

Who’s Next??

Joe Mauer - Everyone knows about him, so I won’t go into any detail. He’s a monster catching prospect who will unseat AJ Pierzynski as the Twins catcher. When will he get the call? That is the Twins big question! 

JD Durbin - Durbin is a great pitching prospect, but I think that when he is called up, it should be to start as a regular, not as the 5^th starter. I think that both Mauer and Durbin should continue to progress upwardly together. I would start them both at AA again, and if they are ready at some point in the year, I think they should both be called up at the same time.

Rob Bowen - Got very little opportunity to play in the almost two months he was with the club. He’s in a tough spot. With AJ around, Pierzynski catches a lot. And, the next Twins catcher will be Mauer. So, Bowen will, at best, be a backup catcher, if he stays with the Twins.

Brad Thomas - May have a shot at the #5 starter spot, or as a 2^nd left-handed reliever. Thomas is old enough not to be a prospect anymore, but it was exciting to see him pitch late in the season and see the speed gun hit 98!! I didn’t realize he had that in him.

Adam Johnson - I don’t see him ever making it with the Twins. Does he have any trade value though?  I can’t imagine they could get much for him. Will another year at AAA do him any good?

Josh Rabe - Another OF prospect who will probably start at AAA and get plenty of playing time.

Jason Kubel - Another OF who is considered a top prospect. Probably will play most of 2004 in AA.

Terry Tiffee - Developed into a pretty decent 3B prospect. If the Twins chose to not have Koskie next year, Tiffee may have an opportunity to fight for the 3B job after a very solid AA season in 2003. He’s not a big-time prospect, but should get a good, fair look in spring training.

Jason Bartlett - Probably will play all of 2004 in AAA, but could be the Twins starting shortstop in 2005.

Luis Rodriguez - Played 2B for AAA Rochester all of the 2003 season. Had some success. Probably warrants at least a look in Spring Training.

So there you have it, my choices to be on the 2004 Minnesota Twins rosters, who won’t be back, and what other minor leaguers may get an opportunity to contribute. As I’ve mentioned before though, I really don’t envy the job that Terry Ryan has in front of him this winter.

That is it for me for today. I am not sure how frequently I will post entries this week. Please stop by and check. As always, if you have any questions or comments on anything, please e-mail me.

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