Tuesday, June 9, 2008

Organizational Review,

and Draft Thoughts

Good Morning! Happy Draft Day! It's been busy here at SethSpeaks.net. Last week, I did several media-related events as well as worked on my top 50 Twins prospects. On Sunday night, I joined Justin Gaard and Phil Mackey for the final segment of Twins Weekly and talked Twins minor leaguers. It is fun to think about minor leaguers and if and how and when they will be able to help the Twins. If you were to go back and look at my top 20 Twins prospects from last week, 15 of them were drafted by the Twins, two were guys signed by the Twins as international free agents, and one (Rob Delaney) was signed as a free agent after he was not drafted by anyone in 50 rounds in 2006. Two were acquired via a trade.

Today is the first day of the 2009 Major League First-Year Players Draft. MLB.tv will again be televising the first round, and I believe the supplemental picks, so if you get a chance to, be sure to watch that. As I have done on the first day of the draft the last couple of years, I like to to take a look at the Twins system and determine where the organization has its biggest needs. That doesn’t mean that is what the Twins need to draft in the early rounds, of course, just a more global overview of the system. I will give some of my theories on the draft. Deron Johnson will again be in charge of the draft, although I am sure that he is working closely with Jim Rantz, Bill Smith, Mike Radcliff, Terry Ryan and all of the scouts in the system. Those decision makers have been meeting for over a week to make their draft boards. I would love to bein the draft room with them, watching them review all of the names on their board and listening to the determining factors for who they will select with each pick. The Twins have the 22^nd pick in the first round. They also get a supplemental first round pick for losing Dennys Reyes.

So today, I am going to look at the players in the organization by position (NOTE - I won't include players at Extended Spring Training, although it is important to remember that several players (Hicks? Hermsen? Ladendorf? Stuifbergen?) could certainly potentially be good , and discuss the needs. So please be sure to check out this analysis and offer any of your thoughts.

CATCHERS

Twins	Joe Mauer, Mike Redmond
Rochester	Jose Morales, Drew Butera
New Britain	Wilson Ramos, Jeff Christy
Ft. Myers	Danny Lehmann, Allan de San Miguel, Jair Fernandez
Beloit	Alexander Soto, Jeff Lanning

I guess that Mauer guy is pretty good, huh? So the hope should be to develop some backup catcher possibilities and have a couple of guys groomed as guys who could potentially be a regular should Mauer a.) need a DL stint or b.) (gulp) sign as a free agent with another team. The only guy in the organization right now that fits the “regular” catcher possibility is Wilson Ramos who (potentially) could be good both offensively and defensively. They have a bunch of good defensive catchers, led by Drew Butera. But realize that Jeff Christy, Danny Lehmann and Allan de San Miguel are also excellent backstops. Alexander Soto is probably the next closest to a potential regular as he has shown some power and pitchers really like throwing to him. Danny Rams, Josmil Pinto and Fred Hanvi are all worth watching in their short seasons.

Seth Draft Strategy - I certainly would not want to spend a lot of money on a guy that you hope will be a backup in 3-4 year. I wouldn't use a Top 5 round pick on a catcher, but I would probably take a college guy in the 6-10 range as they have done with Lehmann and Christy. Then I would take two or three more in the later rounds, younger guys with upside who can play in the GCL. Late rounds, I would take a couple more college guys just because catchers are needed, just because of the quantity of pitchers.

FIRST BASE

Twins	Justin Morneau
Rochester	Brock Peterson, Justin Huber
New Britain	Whit Robbins, Erik Lis
Ft. Myers	Chris Parmelee, Rene Leveret
Beloit	Jonathan Waltenbury (Hank Sanchez)

The Twins made the commitment to Justin Morneau to keep him around through the 2013 season. So again, hopefully we would be looking for a backup option out of this group. It is always important to note, for any position but specifically the 1B position, that the Twins will be in need of a DH and pinch hitting options as well. Whit Robbins certainly is hitting like a future big league. Parmelee is still all about potential, and it will be interesting to see how Waltenbury progresses.

Seth's Draft Strategy - First base is an offensive position. Although the AAA 1B situation is weak, this position has some quality prospects with some upside. However, if there are guys that they believe will be able to hit for power, they should draft them when they are available and make sense. Obviously Morneau makes this a position of power, but I don’t think the depth at this position is excellent throughout the system. I think this is a position where they may want to consider some high school or junior college guys with big upsides, looking five to seven years into the future.

SECOND BASE

Twins	Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert
Rochester	Steve Tolleson (Alejandro Machado)
New Britain	Brian Dinkelman
Ft. Myers	Steve Singleton
Beloit	Dominic de la Osa, Drew Thompson

This is a position of need at the big league level as Casilla has been a disappointment this year and Tolbert is really a utility player. Tolleson and Dinkelman have shown enough to warrant consideration as future starting 2B. I still believe that Singleton can be that as well. So, I really don’t find this to be a high priority position of need. That said, it is a position that should be considered. IF there is a Dustin Pedroia-like player available in college, he should be considered and put right into the mix with the others.

Seth's Draft Strategy - I probably wouldn't draft a high school 2B unless he was just an incredible great hitter. The reason? I would have to wonder, if he is so good, why he isn't playing SS. Bad arm? No range? Non-athletic? College 2B should also be very good hitters although at that level, there will be other guys who can play SS, so it isn't quite so bad. See the SS strategy for more. 

THIRD BASE

Twins	Joe Crede, Brian Buscher
Rochester	Luke Hughes, Matt Macri
New Britain	Danny Valencia
Ft. Myers	Deibinson Romero, Nick Romero (Yangervis Solarte)
Beloit	Nathan Hanson, Juan Richardson

Joe Crede has been a good signing so far, but you have to assume he will be with the team only this year. If he is so good, he will warrant a multi-year contract and money that the Twins should not risk. If he’s not good, and would only get a one year deal, it likely means he isn’t the right choice. We all hope the Luke Hughes/3B situation ends in the somewhat near future so that Danny Valencia can get up to AAA this year so that he can be given a legitimate shot to win the starting job for Opening Day 2010 and for many years beyond. The team is also high on Deibinson Romero who is all about tools and such because it really hasn’t shown in numbers.

Seth's Draft Strategy - Again, I don't see this as a big organizational need now or in the forseeable future, but adding depth would be a good idea. As long as the player is at the top of the Twins draft board, 3B is a position that could at least use more depth. That player should be solid with the glove and provide enough Slugging production. High upside high school guys like Bobby Borchering would make sense while college guys like Nick Romero could also work up through the system in order to develop stronger depth throughout.

SHORTSTOP

Twins	Brendan Harris, Nick Punto
Rochester	Trevor Plouffe, Steve Tolleson
New Britain	Yancarlos Ortiz
Ft. Myers	Chris Cates, (Estarlin de los Santos)
Beloit	Ramon Santana, James Beresford

This is one hurting position throughout the system. I like Brendan Harris and think he is a solid every day player. Nick Punto has turned into 2007 Punto but with poor defensive skill, so that makes for a really bad player. Trevor Plouffe still isn’t quite there, and I don’t know that Tolleson is an everyday SS. Below that, there just isn’t a strong option, and I really think this position needs help. Reggie Williams has upside. Nick Papasan is now retired. This is a position of need throughout the system, and I would not hesitate to take a

Seth's Draft Strategy - I would draft a bunch of shortstops! High school. Junior College. College. Why? First, because it is an organizational need throughout the system. But also, shortstops are generally great athletes and if you have a bunch of them, you create competition and if they need to, they have the athleticism in many cases to adjust to 2B or 3B, or even the OF. If a shortstop is long and lanky and grows and adds power, there is a natural move to 3B. This is especially true of high school shortstops. College shortstops have three or four more years of experience, so you have a little better clue of what they might be able to do. This is the position I would most focus on with both high school and college choices.

OUTFIELD

Twins	Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Rochester	Dustin Martin, Jason Pridie, Tommy Watkins, David Winfree
New Britain	Brandon Roberts, Juan Portes, Matt Moses, Rene Tosoni
Ft. Myers	Joe Benson, Ben Revere, Mark Dolenc, Evan Bigley
Beloit	Angel Morales, Michael Harrington, Ozzie Lewis (Adan Severino)

I think we know that Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span will be around for awhile. The Delmon Young/Carlos Gomez situation likely has to be figured out in the offseason. There are a couple of serviceable players at the AA and AAA levels that could likely provide The high-upside guys are lower, the Joe Benson, Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales ceilings are what is exciting. I really believe there is enough depth that once the big league situation is resolved, there are options to move forward with until those guys are ready.

Seth's Draft Strategy – The assumption is that the Twins don’t really need to focus on outfielders, and although I agree with that for the most part, if there is someone at the top of the draft board, it doesn’t hurt to draft him at all. Why? Because there are three outfield positions that need to be filled at each level, and the other obvious reason is that not all high ceiling prospects become major leaguers, much less all-stars. 

STARTING PITCHERS

Twins	Nick Blackburn, (Glen Perkins), Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Anthony Swarzak
Rochester	Brian Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Reid Santos, Jason Jones
New Britain	Ryan Mullins, Jay Rainville, Cole Devries, Jeff Manship, Matt Fox, Carlos Gutierrez
Ft. Myers	Tyler Robertson, Deolis Guerra, David Bromberg, Mike McCardell,
Beloit	Dan Osterbrock, Brad Tippett, Dan Berlind, Bobby Lanigan, Michael Allen (Shooter Hunt)

The Twins are finally going with a young rotation, well, other than Livan who will likely be gone in less than two months. There are four starters there under the age of 26. And, consider that Francisco Liriano certainly will be a big league pitcher again in the near future. Brian Duensing and Kevin Mulvey, Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship, these are starters that could be ready within the next year if needed. And Tyler Robertson and Deolis Guerra are both very young, but they have the highest upside of anyone on the list not named Liriano. The Twins always have solid pitching prospects and a strong pipeline that just keeps producing quality major league starters.

Seth's Draft Strategy - There is no such thing as too much pitching. Depth is a very positive thing. And also, the organization's philosophy is that if you have pitching, you will always have a chance, and that is hard to dispute. When the best player available is a pitcher, then get the pitcher. College or high school. Get the pitcher with the highest upside. Of the top 12 picks, I would have no problem if five or six of them were pitchers. Never too many pitchers.

RELIEF PITCHERS

Twins	Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, (Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser),
Rochester	Tim Lahey, Armando Gabino, Rob Delaney, Bobby Keppel, Juan Morillo, Ben Hendrickson
New Britain	Zach Ward, Anthony Slama, Frank Mata, Jose Lugo,Yohan Pino, Alex Burnett, (Oswaldo Sosa)
Ft. Myers	Blair Erickson, Spencer Steedley, Steve Hirschfeld, Loek Van Mil, Kyle Waldrop, Henry Arias, Santos Arias
Beloit	Matt Williams, Joe Testa, Danny Rondon, Bruce Pugh, Steve Blevins, Michael Tarsi, Curtis Leavitt, Blake Martin

The Twins bullpen is really down this year. It is amazing how the loss of Pat Neshek, that 8th inning certainty before Joe Nathan, really is having a profound affect on the team. Don't get me wrong, the bullpen is still solid. Reyes has been OK. Crain has struggled, but he is a year after his shoulder surgery and he is certainly in the Twins plans. Brian Bass and Boof Bonser are two guys that are kind of at the crossroads.  The Twins seem to always have very good relievers throughout their system. The Ft. Myers and Beloit bullpens are terrific and there are several guys in EST that are good too. It's also important to note that most big league relievers are failed starters (or at least starters without opportunity).

Seth's Draft Strategy - Unless you're talking about Jesse Crain or Pat Neshek, I probably wouldn't draft a reliever too often. The Twins took Blair Erickson and Danny Rondon last year in the Top 10-12 picks. Unless you're going to rush them up the system, I don't think that makes a lot of sense. Remember that the Twins drafted Anthony Slama in the 39th round a couple of years ago. They also were able to sign Rob Delaney and Steve Hamburger as free agents. So, I don't think I would ever intentionally draft a relief pitcher too early in the draft.

SUMMARY

So, there you have a very quick overview of the Twins organization. What does it show us? You can’t just look at the big league level. As strong as Justin Morneau is at 1B, I have to say that there is not a lot of depth at the position. As bad as second base has been at the big league level for the Twins in 2009, there are several options that could help the Twins to some degree. What do the Twins need? Shortstops and pitching.

So, my overall draft strategy? Well, it is probably very similar to that of the Twins. In my opinion, I just think that you take the best guy available for at least the first eight to twelve rounds. If you're stuck between two players, then you look at your organizational depth chart and see where your greater need is. After the 10th or 12th round, I would consider taking several shortstops. I would take some college pitching, including several junior college types. I would take a couple of catchers. And, I would take a few of outfielders. The infielders can move around for a year or two as they develop. The outfielders can do the same thing. They will weed themselves out.

I think it is also important to remember that the 2005 draft was not 'normal.' So many from that draft are already up in the big leagues whether they were drafted out of high school or college. The Big Three 3B (Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon and Ryan Zimmerman) have panned out. Those high school outfielders (Justin Upton, Jay Bruce and soon-to-be-up Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutcheon) and college outfielders like Jacoby Ellsbury. Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey have already made it and Brian Duensing is doing well in AAA. That 2005 draft was an exception, and even some of those guy that are close to coming up, have now spent three years in the minor leagues. So, expecting short-term solutions is simply not fair at all. The Twins draft 14th, 27th and 31st, and although they can get some high level talent with all three of those picks, the guys that are ready within a year or so are generally taken within the first five or so picks.

College players are generally closer to the big leagues from when they are drafted, but if you look at the Twins lineup, it is interesting. Who would you consider the top Twins hitters? Well, Joe Mauer was drafted out of high school. Justin Morneau was drafted out of high school. Michael Cuddyer? Drafted out of high school. Jason Kubel, drafted out of high school. Carlos Gomez? Well, he was signed as a free agent from the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old. So, I know we tend to be a bit frustrated, but with high school draft picks, you have to be patient.

In the end, the draft is a crap shoot of sorts. But, I think that the Twins have done a nice job in the mid-rounds picking up some sleeper types. Jason Kubel and David Winfree were taken in the 12th and 13th rounds. In 2006, Jeff Manship was taken in the 14th round and Danny Valencia was taken in the 19th round. Anthony Slama was a 39th round pick that year. People thought that the Twins reached a little for Carlos Gutierrez and Ben Revere and look at what he has done to start out his career. In reality, we will not know how well the Twins drafted in 2009 until at least 2015, so don't make too much out of it no matter what.

In reality, the Twins will likely go through who they draft, and they will determine how many they want to sign. The last three years, they have signed everyone that they wanted to with just one exception.

It's time! 

If you were the Twins Director of Scouting, Deron Johnson, what would your philosophy be going into the draft? Feel free to share your thoughts on that, or on my thoughts on the Twins organization.     

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