Wednesday, May 10, 2005

Twins Thoughts

Twins Minor League Report

American Idol Thoughts

Mid-Week Meanderings

Good morning everybody!

The Twins sure got a nice win last night! 15-5. Good offense and, well, not so great pitching or defense, but a win is a win! I have some opinions, thoughts and rumors on the Twins below that some may find controversial, or not, but they can certainly be discussed below. There were some good Twins minor league performances last night. And of course, I have my American Idol Thoughts. We're down to the Final Four, and I have my thoughts on all eight performances below.

By the way, Delmon Young was given a 50 game suspension. That is probably about right. Many were thinking 30, which I didn't think was right. The reason was because a year ago, he was suspended for bumping an umpire (3 Games?!?!?!). Something big was needed. Hopefully he'll learn!

Let's just get to today's topics.  

TWINS THOUGHTS

Was that the Twins... OUR Minnesota Twins... that played last night? Did they really put FIFTEEN runs on the board? Weird!! Well, it is important not to make too much of a big win, much like it is important for us all not to make too much of a big loss, or a small loss. In a 162 game season, these things happen. So, how did it happen, and how can we make it happen some more? Here are some thoughts:

• First... odds are that it won't happen again, maybe once, but it certainly is not something that you can ever just plan on. It is amazing that the Twins offense, as bad as it has been so far this year, has now scored double-digit points three times this season. (check out Stick & Ball Guy for some impressive statistical analysis)

• Second, play Luis Rodriguez at 3B instead of Tony Batista. I am a believer that batting average means very little in the big scheme of things. However, after a 2-5 last night, L-Rod is now hitting .281 to Batista's .248. But to me, it is just as much about quality of at bats. It is about working counts and doing what the situation calls for. Getting on base is a big thing, and Batista is getting on just 30% of the time whereas Rodriguez gets on about 40% of the time. Also, many think that Batista is capable of hitting 25-30 home runs. Well, in 101 at bats, Batista has just two homers. Rodriguez has one in 33 at bats. Oh, and if you want to talk defense, Rodriguez is solid at third and his range is more than three feet to either side.

• Third, bat Luis Rodriguez leadoff instead of Shannon Stewart. As mini-tb said in the comments of SBG's 8 pack, "Stewart is completely washed up. He can’t hit for extra bases, his quality of ABs are mediocre at best, and he almost makes Chipper Jones look like a decent left fielder, although I don’t think anyone could achieve that task. Dump him and his contract for a warm bucket of spit now." I think some Twins fans are still living in what he did for the team when he came over from the Blue Jays in 2003. He is no longer the same hitter. At that time, he was a good, professional hitter. He took good at bats, and hit for some extra base power. That is not the hitter we have seen the last two years. Last year I wrote an article about how he was the worst leadoff hitter in the league because the leadoff hitter's job is to get on base and see pitches. Even with Stewart's hot start in April, he is now getting on base just 35% of the time. However, his on-base percentage and slugging percentage are both basically based on batting average because he doesn't work counts much and he isn't getting extra base hits. Trading Stewart now while some team might think he could provide them value would be beneficial to the team.

• Stewart to the Cardinals??? According to Cardinals Diaspora yesterday
  "Buster Olney was on KFNS’ Morning Grind and mentioned that Jock has been hot to trot on 2 Twins: Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart. In Buster’s estimation Stewart is the more likely fit and more probably, but if the Cards could re-work Hunter’s salary (around 8 million) then the Twins would play ball. I’m trying to remember the last time the Twins and Cards hooked up for a trade and none really come to mind- so I hasten to say how the talks will actually progress with Twins GM’s Terry Ryan or Bill Smith."
  Ummm... Tom Brunansky for Tom Herr in early 1988... I feel queasy just typing that!! So, who are some guys that the Cardinals have in their system that the Twins could try to acquire? Anthony Reyes would be nice. The pitcher was listed as the team's #1 prospect. I think he's a bit overrated and I would rank him similarly to Boof Bonser. Maybe the Twins could trade Stewart for a Player to be Named Later. Why the infamous PTBNL? Well, because by MLB rules, a player can not be traded for one year after he is drafted by a team. Last year in the first round, the Cardinals drafted SS Tyler Greene out of Georgia Tech. Greene has been a disappointment so far for the Cardinals as he is hitting just .228 at Hi Class A right now. However, the Twins do need middle infield depth and could probably push Greene up to AA if they did acquire him. He is ranked as the Cardinals #3 prospect by Baseball America. I realize that there is no way that Stewart is worth a quality prospect, but I figure if they can get Greene, they could get one lesser prospect as well. How about Nick Stavinoha? The OF was the Cardinals 5th round pick in 2005 out of LSU. After signing last year, he hit .344/.398/.564 with 14 homers and 53 RBI in 65 games in the Midwest League. I like him because he had 23 walks and 25 strikeouts. This year, he has played in 20 games at AA Springfield where he is hitting .311/.333/.459 with a two homers and 11 RBI. Now this year, he has just two walks and 18 strikeouts, but that jump to AA is huge, and I would expect that he will adjust quickly. He was ranked as the Cardinals #18 prospect. Adding prospects, specifically hitting prospects, would be great for Stewart. The Twins need to find hitters. 

• Either play Lew Ford in left field or call up Jason Kubel to play left field full-time. As bad a hitter as Shannon Stewart is, compared to his defense, he is a Hall of Fame hitter. Stewart might just be the worst defensive left fielder in the game. He takes poor routes, always looks to Hunter to make the plays. And let's be honest, his arm rivals Johnny Damon's for worst in baseball. Ford is not without fault, but you can never question Lew's effort. You can not question his arm strength. And, defensively, he is right up there with the best. As for Kubel, he is no defensive whiz either, but his arm more than makes up for it at times.

• Another way to score a lot of runs is to have your #3-#6 hitters combine to go 11-20 with four walks, four doubles, two homers and 11 RBI. That is getting the job done.

• Please stick with Michael Cuddyer not only in right field, but in the middle of the order. He has always shown good power, particularly in the minor leagues and in spurts in the big leagues. The problem has been that his playing time has really only come in spurts. Three doubles in three innings last night gives him 10 on the season. He also has a 10 game hitting streak. Like I said yesterday, I hope an 0-4 will not put him back on the bench!

• Justin Morneau had a two home run game. Obviously the first one, a three run shot to give the Twins a 5-0 lead was more important for the team in this game. However, don't overlook what his second homer was. Yes, it was a 2-run shot that gave the Twins a 15-5 lead with just three more outs to record. But, it was an opposite field home run against a left-handed pitcher. That should, hopefully, do wonders for his confidence. I know it means nothing, but if you take his current numbers and try to calculate how he will do over the course of the full season, he is on pace for a 39 homer, 113 RBI season.

• I have to say it... Torii Hunter is on a tear. In his last six games, he is 13-22 (.591) with three doubles, a homer and six RBI.

• Juan Castro not only can't hit (.233/.269/.281), but he is a vastly overrated defensive player. Yes, he makes all of the plays that are within a few feet of him (except that one last night), but he has very little range. And, like Cristian Guzman for his Twins tenure, it is very unlikely that you will see Castro dive, particularly up the middle. How many times in the last few weeks have you seen a ground ball up the middle where you found yourself screaming "DIVE!!!!" at the TV screen. Nick Punto is NOT the answer. Yes, this is another Free Jason Bartlett message. It is ridiculous how obvious this decision should be!

• What would we (bloggers and all Twins fans) be talking about today if the Twins had scored zero, one, two or three runs and lost? We would be talking about how, in six innings, Carlos Silva gave up five runs (4 earned) on 11 hits including two more home runs. I think Mr. Silva needs to thank the Twins hitters on this one. It also is yet another situation where a starter doesn't pitch well but is credited with a glorified Win.

• Fortunately, we get to talk about Francisco Liriano today for a couple of reasons. First, he pitched the final three innings and struck out three hitters. He was throwing his fastball consistently between 95 and 98, and his slider between 89 and 92 with that changeup between 83 and 84. That is great, excellent, wonderful, and more. However, it is miniscule when coupled with the fact that Ron Gardenhire has now said that if Kyle Lohse struggles again, Liriano could replace him in the rotation very soon. Well, as I have said the last couple of days, starting Lohse in Texas is just asking for a throttling. So, could today's start by Lohse be his last as a Twin? Twins fans have probably never hoped for a Twins bashing in a game more than they will tomorrow.  

• Does anyone else have any thoughts on the Twins, potential trade partners and deals? Send me an e-mail or leave some Comments.

TWINS MINOR LEAGUE REPORTS

ROCHESTER REDWINGS

Tuesday - REDWINGS 3, Buffalo 0 - JD Durbin needed a start like that. I mean, I don't think his job in the rotation is currently in any jeopardy, but it just had to feel good to put together a really strong start. He went 6.2 shutout innings. He gave up five hits and walked just two while striking out six. Pat Neshek came in and got his fourth save. He went the final 2.1 innings and gave up only a hit. He struck out three. The Red Wings managed just seven hits with Terry Tiffee having two of them. Tiffee also scored two of the three runs. Jason Kubel, Luis Maza and Josh Rabe (returning from a couple of days of being ill) each had an RBI.

• Check out the Diary on Pat Neshek's Sick Numbers at John Sickels' site.

NEW BRITAIN ROCKCATS

Tuesday - ROCKCATS - No Game Scheduled, which is probably good after such a long game the night before! 

    

FT MYERS MIRACLE

Tuesday - MIRACLE 7, St. Lucie 13 - Down 6-3 going into the 8th inning, the Miracle scored three runs to tie the game. However, St. Lucie came back with seven runs in the bottom of the inning to reclaim a decisive lead. Anthony Swarzak started and gave up six runs on nine hits and a walk in six innings. He struck out just two. Josh Hill then gave up five runs on four hits (2 homers) in 1.1 innings. Chris Schutt got the final two outs, but not before he gave up two additional runs. Garrett Guzman had a very nice game. The outfielder went 2-4 with his third homer and five RBI. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert both went 2-4 with a walk. Johnny Woodard was 1-2 with a walk and his second homer. 

  

BELOIT SNAPPERS

Tuesday - SNAPPERS 5, West Michigan 13 - Let's start with the positive. Tarrence Patterson went 3-5 with two stolen bases (he now has 10). Drew Thompson went 3-4 with a double and a triple. Edward Ovalle went 2-4 with a triple. Erik Lis went 1-3 with two walks. Kyle Waldrop got the start for the Snappers. In five innings, he gave up five earned runs on nine hits and a walk. He struck out three. Jose Lugo took the loss, giving up three runs on three hits (while striking out three) in just one inning. Danny Vais and Frank Mata each pitched a scoreless inning.

  

AMERICAN IDOL THOUGHTS

Down to the final four contestants, American Idol had them each sing two songs again last night. This week, the contestants flew out to Graceland, met Priscilla and Lisa Marie Pressley and worked with Tommy Mottolla. Seriously, in the music business are there any bigger executive players than Tommy? Anyway, that's not important to the competition. This week, they had two sing two Elvis songs. Immediately two things came to mind for me.

1.) Taylor Hicks had a clear advantage to the other singers. That is his style. He can't dance, but he can mimic Elvis well vocally and in actions.

2.) Katharine McPhee was at a clear disadvantage. As the lone female, vocally it was likely unfair for her. I mean, musical genre plays a big role in this competition. If we want to talk about fair though, Mandisa might still be in this competition if there wouldn't have been a 'Country' week.

With those things in mind, let's take a look at how I felt the contestants performed. I am going to analyze all eight songs individually, and then rank them all individually and see how it turns out for the contestants

Taylor Hicks - Jailhouse Rock

As I mentioned, this was an easy week for Taylor. It was his perfect genre. Leading off the show, I thought he was very smart to select a well known song that people will recognize, and that he can have a lot of fun with. He picked the perfect song. Vocally, he was very strong as would be expected. He certainly used a lot of showmanship. What he didn't do was anything new or creative to make it his own. That was smart, and safe, especially to lead off the show. When you're first, you have to make an impression and he really did. I thought it was quite good.

Chris Daughtry - Suspicious Minds

I actually didn't even realize that this was an Elvis song, but it is a great song and fun to pretend you're a background vocalist for! I thought that Chris really sang it well. He did show a softer side yet in the end, he showed some vocal strength. He was very good. Nothing exciting and no Wow factor though.

Elliott Yamin - If I Can Dream

I think that generally Elliot chooses lesser known songs. I don't think that is always smart because I think voters really like what they know. This is a lesser known song, and I thought he had a slow start. However, within a few bars, Elliot was absolutely incredible. He gives goose bumps when he sings, and of the guys remaining, he is the only one for which that can be said. He is incredible!

Katharine McPhee - Hound Dog

To counter the fact that she was at a major disadvantage, I thought that Katharine really needed to sing popular songs and do them well. Well, she did pick a popular song here, and vocally, she was good for much of it. Nothing great, like we're used to hearing from her, but not bad at all. She did make it her own, which can be good, but risky. She tried to combine two songs, but I think it confused her and she missed lyrics. That is a total no-no which has to be mentioned no matter how good she was. It was unfortunate because without that, this was a little more middle-of-the-pack than she will end up ranking.

Taylor Hicks - In the Ghetto

Part of it being a safe night for Taylor allowed him to pick a song that was a little more risky, maybe something that he just really liked or could do something with. I think that this was that song. It isn't overly exciting. However, he was excellent and even showed some range. This is a lesser known song, but he made it very good!

Chris Daughtry - A Little Less Conversation

To me, Chris vocally was actually quite good. However, through 95% of the song, he showed next to no range. It was incredibly boring and monotonous throughout. When he finally rocked it out a little at the very end, then I thought it was good. He went strong at the end, and I guess that is likely what people will remember.

Elliott Yamin - Trouble

Again, Elliot did not pick an overly popular Elvis song. That is so risky. However, I just stared at the TV as he sang. He has such amazing vocals. As good as any singer in any of the American Idol competitions have been. I know. I have been hesitant to say that because to me, Rueben Studdard was amazing. However, Elliot is a truly amazing talent. This song totally does not mix with the Elliot persona that we have seen, however, vocally it was perfect.

Katharine McPhee - Can't Help Falling In Love With You

I knew that Katharine needed to come up with a strong performance in her second song to give herself a shot. When I heard it was this song, the first thing I said out loud was, "I'm so going to start bawling." Just listening to her sing the song in her introduction, it was great and I knew it was a perfect song to end the show on. She started out great... and then she changed it. She made it her own. Normally, I think that is a good thing. But not for Katharine. Not tonight! Not when she was in so much trouble because of the genre. For this song, for this week, she needed to just sing the song and let her voice make it her own. She would have blown away the audience and Paula would have had tears. Sure, someone may have said something about it being a copy job, but it's about impressing the voters and that would have done it! Because she changed it and it didn't come out amazing, she is in big trouble.

SethSpeaks Ranking of the Top Performances (from last night)

1.) Elliot Yamin - Trouble

2.) Elliot Yamin - If I Can Dream

3.) Taylor Hicks - In the Ghetto

4.) Taylor Hicks - Jailhouse Rock

5.) Chris Daughtry - Suspicious Minds

6.) Katharine McPhee - Can't Help Falling in Love

7.) Chris Daughtry - A Little Less Conversation

8.) Katharine McPhee - Hound Dog

Who do I think will be eliminated tonight?

Katharine McPhee - As I said at the beginning, she came in with a major disadvantage. I think that she picked the right songs, but in both cases, she just tried to do too much with the songs. That is especially the case in her last song. Yes, I still have the McPheever. I think that she will have a very strong career. This was jus a bad week for her.

Last week, Elliot was in the final two, so he had to come with it last night... and he did. He was truly amazing and if the voters don't recognize that, it is unfortunate. Taylor should be safe. Chris was average at best. He is fortunate that Katharine have a really off night. 

As always, for further American Idol thoughts, be sure to check out the fine folks of curlio.com because I know we don't always see or hear things the same way. Any thoughts on my American Idol Thoughts? Who will win it all? This is where it gets fun, so if you would like, be sure to debate the merits of your favorite contestants below. Or, if you're shy, send me an e-mail. 

Thanks again for stopping by this site. If you have any questions, comments or ideas for future postings, please e-mail me.

 

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