Friday, May 8, 2009
True or False? Over or Under? (Part 3)
Here I conclude answering your questions on the Twins and their minor league system.
1. From Thrylos - True or False: Vavra will no longer be the hitting coach by November.
a. Seth – False. The Twins certainly are loyal to their coaches. Vavra received, and deserved, a lot of credit for the success in 2006, and the BA with RISP in 2009. He probably took way too much blame for any of the failures. It’s funny because Rick Anderson is credited with being a great pitching coach because of a few successes, but people overlook some of the projects that he hasn’t been able to improve. So, I think Vavra will still be around at least through 2010 after which his contract is up. I’m definitely a big fan of Riccardo Ingram though!
2. From Thrylos - True or False: Will Gutierrez will make it to the bigs before Swarzak?
a. Seth – False – No chance. Swarzak will likely make a big league appearance sometime in 2009 whether in December or sometime earlier. Gutierrez is in high-A ball. He may get to AA yet this year. We may see him late in the 2010 season.
3. From Thrylos - True or False: This will be the last season of Redmond, Buscher, Ayala, Breslow, Harris, Dickey in the Twins' organization.
a. Seth – False – Redmond, Ayala, Breslow, Dickey – probably in their last years. Buscher, I would put his chances at about 50/50. I would think that Harris would be around. We can assume that Joe Crede won’t be back. We don’t know what we have in Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia, so I would think Buscher and Harris could be at spring training.
4. From Thrylos - True or False: Morneau hits 35 home runs and drives in 125.
a. Seth - False – He is currently on pace for 37 homers, but I would put him between 27-31 homers on the year. I do think 125 RBI is attainable but that would be close too.
5. From Tommy - T/F Either Ben Revere or Denard Span will be traded before both are in Twins uniforms.
a. Seth - False – Span is a prototypical leadoff hitter. Revere is more of a #2 type of hitter. They could both play in the same outfield. The Twins typically won’t trade top prospects, so I don’t see them trading Revere any time soon. Of course the other option is to move Revere to a different position (2B?) if it makes sense and there is depth in the OF.
6. From Tommy - T/F Swarzak will make a start for the Twins in 2009?
a. Seth – True.
7. From Tommy – T/F The middle infield of say 2011 is in the organization right now.
a. Seth – True – Although I don’t think there are any high-potential types of prospects, the Twins do have plenty of quality prospects up the middle. All they need is for two of them to take off. Between Trevor Plouffe, Steve Tolleson, Brian Dinkelman, Steve Singleton, Drew Thompson, Ramon Santana, Reggie Williams, Tyler Ladendord, and Nick Papasan are just some of the options.
8. From Tommy – T/F Bill Smith's job is safe for five years
a. Seth – True. This organization is built of longevity, and building from within, and continuity.
9. From Jonathan - Over/Under - Remaining years Gardy will manage the Twins - 5
a. Seth – Over, if his health is alright. Again, the Twins won’t fire him. He just needs to not pop any blood vessels when he gets irate.
10. From Jonathan - T/F - Denard Span will be the only one of the 4 outfielders to measure up to expectations by years end.
a. Seth - False – That’s a tough one because you have to ask, whose expectations. I expect three of the four outfielders to meet my expectations, Gomez being the lone exception.
11. From Jonathan - Over/Under - Number of call ups from the minors for the remainder of the year - 8.
a. Seth – Over – There are always injuries. As much as we like to believe certain players will pick things up, that may not be realistic. I hope it isn’t too much more than that, but it could be.
12. From Joel - Over/Under: Delmon Young hits 15 Home Runs.
a. Seth – Under, but not by a lot. I think he’ll hit 13-14 this season, again, assuming he gets consistent plate appearances.
13. From Joel - T/F: Twins send one of the starting five down to Rochester if they continue to struggle.
a. Seth – False – I think they would send them to the bullpen.
14. From Joel - Over/Under: Denard Span steals 50 bases.
a. Seth – Under, Way under, no more than 30.
15. From Joel – T/F: Gomez stays with the Twins for the entire season.
a. Seth – True – It is inexplicable that he is still on this roster. It is dumb on several levels, from 1.) he needs to play, to 2.) if they send him down, it could save them a bunch of money as early as next year.
16. From Joel - Over/Under: Twins win 90 games.
a. Seth – Under, but I would still save they could win 88. To win 90 games, they will have to go 76-56. That’s 57.6% which is impressive, but still manageable.
17. From Ruth – T/F. Chris Cates eventually makes it to the major leagues.
a. Seth – False, but it would be cool if he did..
18. From Ruth - Over/Under – 10 wins, all 5 starting pitchers
a. Seth – Under – I think four of them will get ten wins, and one of them will end up with eight or nine.
19. From Jon - Over/Under – Years until the Twins make it to a World Series - 3.
a. Seth – Under – I think that’s a reasonable time table. Who knows? They could make it this year… or next year… or the next year. With the way the organization is set up and run, they will likely compete for a playoff spot every year. Once they get to the playoffs anything can happen.
20. From Nick - Over/Under – Number of regular starter with an ERA of under 4.00 - 3.
a. Seth – Push – I still believe that Liriano, Baker and Slowey will have ERAs below 3.00 with Perkins and Blackburn both in the lower 4s.
That’s it. Thank you to all of you who sent me your questions. That was a lot of fun. Any thoughts? Leave your questions or comments here.