Wednesday, February 15, 2006

OTHER THOUGHTS

FANTASY PERSPECTIVE:

National League East Hitters

Good morning everyone!

Today, I will dive into the NL Eastern division hitters in Part 6 of my Fantasy Perspective series. If you would like more detail on why I want to do this series as well as some of the thoughts that go into my 2006 Projections, please click here.

If you have any questions or comments about what I write here, or regarding your league, please e-mail me. If you would be fun, feel free to ask questions or comment on anything down below in the Comments section.

Disclaimer: What you read below are simply my opinions. Obviously I have no knowledge of what will happen in the 2006 season, so please take the information for what it is worth (fun). Also, these opinions are subject to change as spring training approaches. All players listed are either projected starters, or starters based on my opinion.

To this point, I have only done my look at the:

Top 20 Impact Rookie Hitters for 2006

Top 20 Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2006

 

American League West Hitters

American League Central Hitters

American League East Hitters

National League West Hitters

National League Central Hitters

PART 6:

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST HITTERS

The National League Eastern Division should be a very competitive again this year. The Atlanta Braves have now won 14 consecutive division titles, and they should still be pretty good. They used so many young players last year, and will count on more from them this year. It is really hard for me to pick against them at this point. The Florida Marlins dismantled a team that won the World Series just a couple of years ago. They have a lot of young players, but a lot of young players with some potential. It is now Year 2 for the Washington Nationals. They surprised a lot of people last year by competing for so much of the season. The Phillies were again a bit of a disappointment, but they named Pat Gillick as their new GM. The plan was to make some moves. They really haven't. And finally, the NY Mets again added a couple of big names and gave them big money, but will it be enough to be a player in the NL East? They seem to always find a way to disappoint. Well, I am going to give my season predictions closer to the season, but I guess that’s why they play the games anyway.  So, let’s get going on some analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.

Atlanta Braves

C – Brian McCann

McCann became a household name during the Braves' playoff series against the Astros last fall when the still-21 year old hit two homers in the series, including a big one against Roger Clemens. But Braves fans have known him since he was the team's second round pick in 2002 out of Duluth High School, a city very near Atlanta. In 2005, he started the season at AA Mississippi where he hit .265/.359/.476. He came up to the Braves when injuries really decimated the big league club and he responded by hitting .278/.345/.400 with seven doubles and five homers in 180 at bats. He should be the team's primary backstop in 2006. I expect him to struggle more at the plate as his minor league numbers never included a very high batting average. But he has good on-base skills.

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

McCann  113 379 41 99 21  0 13 159  47 34 64  4  2 .261 .322 .420 .742

 

1B – Adam LaRoche

Well, LaRoche last his 1B platoon-mate this offseason when Julio Franco signed a two year deal with the Mets. I expect LaRoche to play most of the time. However, he has really struggled against lefties, so it will be interesting to see how he responds with more at bats against them. He has provided consistent doubles and a few home runs. My only problem with him is the it does not look like he cares or gives 100% effort all the time.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

LaRoche 149 491 60 129 36  0 21 228  71 47 100  0  0 .263 .327 .464 .791

  

2B – Marcus Giles

Giles is likely to replace Rafael Furcal as the Braves leadoff hitter in 2006. He has always had a high on-base percentage, so from that standpoint, he is an excellent choice for the job. However, he is just a good all-around hitter with decent pop in his bat, so he really could hit anywhere from 1 through six in the lineup and be productive. I expect him to do everything well in 2006. The only number where he could be hurt would be in the RBI category hitting after the pitching spot. 

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Giles  156 601 112 183 48  2 18 289  72 80 102 18  4 .304 .386 .481 .867

 

3B – Chipper Jones

One of the most consistent hitters over the past 10-12 years, Jones had an off year in 2004. He put up excellent numbers again in 2005, unfortunately he had to miss 53 games. He showed great power last year and his Isolated Discipline of .116 is very good! His Isolated Power was also significantly better than for his career. The question is not Jones's ability, it is only his ability to stay healthy.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jones  132 462 79 142 31  0 24 245  91 81 77  3  1 .307 .411 .530 .941

  

SS – Edgar Renteria

Renteria had what everyone called a bad year in 2005 with the Red Sox. Was it a bad year, or was it the start of a declining career? That is the big question. When the Braves decided to give up phenom Andy Marte, they are assuming the former. The scary thing for Braves fans is that his 2005 OPS of .728 is better than his career OPS of .720. He really just had the two great seasons with St. Louis in '04 and '05. I do think that Renteria will be better in '06 than '05, but I don't think he will ever get back to his .800+ OPS seasons.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Renteria 153 583 90 171 38  1 11 244  77 55 83 15  5 .293 .354 .419 .773

 

LF – Kelly Johnson/Ryan Langerhans

The 23 year old Johnson, the Braves #1 pick in 2000 out of high school, played in 87 games in 2005 for the Braves. He hit just .241, but that is more impressive when you consider he started his big league year (something like) 1-30. He does a good job of getting on base though. In his time in Richmond to start the season, Johnson's Isolated Discipline was .128. Even with the Braves it was .093. 25 year old Langerhans was the Braves 3rd round pick in 1998. He spent all of 2005 with the Braves and hit .267/.348/.426 with 22 doubles and eight homers. Both of these guys exemplify the way that the Braves have built from within. They were among the important role players called up to the Braves that helped them to another division championship. I think that both will be important to the Braves in 2006 as well.  

Player    G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Johnson   73 201 27 54 13  1  5  84  24 22 49  4  2 .269 .341 .418 .759
Lngrhns  112 312 49 87 21  1  8 134  39 32 78  3  2 .279 .346 .429 .775

 

CF – Andruw Jones

Is this what the Braves and their fans have been hoping for from Jones for all these years? He still hit just .263, but he took some walks, and as everyone knows, he hit a lot of home runs. 51 to be exact. Now, can he duplicate that number in 2006? I don't think so, but if he can increase his batting average even just a little, and be willing to take a couple more walks, he can be equally productive. Notice his .916 projected OPS is just lower than the .922 he put up last year, even with 11 less home runs. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jones  158 556 89 152 31  2 40 307 109 79 118  4  3 .273 .364 .552 .916

 

RF – Jeff Franceour

Francoeur was the stroy in the league when he was called up to the Braves and immediately hit for power and average while at the same time showing off his rocket arm in RF. Sure, his numbers faded toward season's end, but he showed a glimpse of just how good he can be. He just turned 22, after all. He was the Braves 2002 first round pick out of another high school near Atlanta. He, McCann and Braves pitcher Kyle Davies all grew up in the area playing youth baseball with and against each other in the Atlanta area. They all were able to help the Braves significantly in 2005 and are keys to their future success. (Note - the Marlins Jeremy Hermida was also in that group of childhood teammates and opponents) Anyway, I project that Franceous will put up numbers a little more in line with his minor league track record. Expect him to meet a little bit of an adjustment period, but he should come out of it nicely.

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Francoeur 152 589 74 164 44  0 24 280  94 40 136 11  6 .278 .324 .475 .800

 

One 2 Watch – Wilson Betemit

I think Braves fans were teased by Betemit for so many years. His tools made him the team's top prospect too early, and when he came to the major leagues so young and failed, some doubted him. Last year, he was finally able to get more playing time and came through with a .305 average in 246 at bats (115 games). I think many would have been comfortable with the team going with Betemit as a replacement for Rafael Furcal at SS. Now, he should get some time at all three infield positions as well as a pinch hitter.

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Jones-Chipper and Andruw varieties, Giles. The future of  Franceour.

The Bad – Questionably Left Field.

The Questions – How can Andruw Jones back up his '05 season? Is McCann ready for a full-time gig? Did Renteria have a bad year, or was he really hurt?

 

Florida Marlins

C – Josh Willingham/Miguel Olivo

Willingham's ability to hit has never been a question. He has hit, hit for power, and consistently taken a lot of walks. The question mark with him is whether he can catch defensively, and if not, can he play a decent 1B, or LF? However, he is about to turn 27 this weekend, so the time to find out is certainly now. I think he'll catch, and we'll be able to see his excellent on-base abilities and some power. Olivo is probably around for some insurance as well as simply being a veteran backup.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Wllnghm 123 376 55 109 24  0 20 193  67 59 94  4  3 .290 .386 .513 .900
Olivo    86 241 25  59 10  0  8  93  25 13 68  5  2 .245 .283 .386 .669

 

1B – Mike Jacobs

Mike Jacobs was actually a catcher through much of his minor league career. When Doug Mientkiewicz was injured late in the season, the Mets turned to Jacobs to play 1B for them. He responded well! He had seven doubles, 10 homers and 23 RBI in just 100 at bats! That was great for the Mets who were able to turn Jacobs (and more) into Carlos Delgado. Now, the last three seasons, Jacobs has shown an ability to hit for average and for power, so it is not as if his showing with the Mets came from nowhere. In other words, I do expect that Jacobs will be a solid, productive fixture in the middle of the Marlins lineup for years.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jacobs  152 554 79 163 33  0 22 262 103 46 123  0  0 .294 .348 .473 .821

 

2B – Dan Uggla/Pokey Reese

The Marlins used the Rule V selections well. With one of their picks they took Dan Uggla. He is certainly a question mark, as most Rule V picks are, but unlike most of the selections, I think that Uggla is a lock to make the Marlins roster. I also think he will get a lot of playing time. He is an interesting case because he really did not hit much throughout his career until this year at AA in the Diamondbacks system. Last year, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI and 15 stolen bases. He also did quite well in the Arizona Fall League. It was no surprise when he was selected in the Rule V draft, but he couldn't have asked for a better place to go after the Marlins traded Luis Castillo. Like Olivo, Reese could just be a veteran backup and insurance in case Uggle can not play every day. Reese is a no-bat, great glove, great guy player who will really be a good influence on the Marlins team.

Player  G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Uggla  112 375 47 97 19  1 11 151  44 35 81 10  6 .259 .322 .403 .725

Reese   96 234 28 53  9  1  1  67  24 22 53  8  4 .226 .293 .286 .579

 

3B – Miguel Cabrera

If the Marlins stayed status quo, Cabrera would be a Top 5 pick in most fantasy drafts. With the entirely new roster, Cabrera is a question mark for fantasy players. Who will hit behind him to protect him? Who will be able to get on base in front of him? Will he see enough pitches to hit? Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are the young guys that the Marlins will build around. And, Cabrera will not turn 23 until mid-April. As you can see from my projections, I think Cabrera will be just fine, and the young Marlins will have enough talent around him to compensate.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Cabrera 162 603 98 187 40  1 34 331 108 62 127  2  1 .310 .374 .549 .923

 

SS – Robert Andino/Hanley Ramirez

This may be a bit controversial, but I am going out on a limb and saying that the Marlins will start their season with Robert Andino as their starting shortstop. He was the Marlins 2nd round pick in 2002 out of his Miami high school. He is another excellent glove who has yet to really show a lot offensively. He has little power, but seems to hit a fair amount of doubles. I think we all know that Hanley Ramirez is the future SS for the team, but in thinking that, I believe that they will want to be extra cautious with him. He has yet to have a AAA at bat, so I would like him to start there. If they can get him a half season of AAA seasoning, he can come up and be more ready. For those closer to the situation, I do realize that Andino also has not played in AA, but we all know that the team is likely just building in 2006. In building, including a pitching staff, defense matters, so I think that Andino gets the nod over Alfredo Amazega. For what it is worth, Andino is about four months younger than the toolsy Ramirez.

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Andino  108 343 33 88 15  0  2 109  27 21 77 11  5 .257 .299 .318 .617
Ramirez  84 292 39 77 12  3  3 104  30 22 57 11  6 .264 .315 .356 .671

 

LF – Chris Aguila

Aguila will turn 27 years old next week. He was the Marlins' 3rd round pick in 1997. To say that he deserves a shot would be an understatement. He actually was with the Marlins most of last season. He played in 65 games, but only had 78 at bats. His AA and AAA numbers the last three years have been excellent. He has hit for high average, shown an ability to get on base and a little bit of pop in his bat. He will need to try to cut down on his strikeouts though.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Aguila 129 457 64 120 27  1 13 188  61 33 114 12  5 .263 .312 .411 .724

 

CF – Eric Reed

In a word... Speed! Eric Reed is the likely CF for the Marlins. Last year, he stole a combined 40 bases between AA and AAA Albuquerque. He is a career .286 hitter in four minor league seasons, but he did hit .310 in AAA in 39 games at the end of last year. One problem with him is that he does not walk much. A guy with this kind of speed needs to get on base more! He also will not have much power. All that said, if he can play well in CF and cover a lot of ground, he can be very important for the team. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Reed   125 459 54 131 16  2  3 160  49 25 108 39  9 .285 .322 .349 .671

 

RF – Jeremy Hermida

I don't know what more to say about Hermida. He has the potential to be absolutely incredible. Here is what I wrote when I discussed my Top Impact Rookie Hitters a couple weeks ago:
 I happened to be watching the Marlins August 31st game on ESPN. Late in the game, with the bases loaded, Hermida made his major league debut and launched a line drive over the right field wall for a grand slam. What a great way to start a career! As you've seen above in this list, the Marlins will be using plenty of rookies in 2006, many of which were brought in from other organizations. Hermida was their own #1 pick (11th overall) in 2002. He is a five-tool player and that was evident by his 2005 season at Class AA Carolina. He hit .293 with 29 doubles, two triples, 18 homers and 63 RBI. He stole 23 bases, getting caught just twice. Most impressive was his Isolated Discipline which was .164 which is remarkable (.293 AVG, .457 OBP) He will strike out a lot, but I think he makes up for it with the walks and the power. Hermida should fit into the middle of that revamped Marlins lineup as the team tries to surround and protect Miguel Cabrera.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hermida  152 512 74 145 26  0 18 225  70 79 124 28  7 .283 .379 .439 .818

 

One 2 Watch – Wes Helms

Helms comes to the Marlins from the Brewers as a free agent. Although I can't imagine he'll get too much time at 3B, he could fill in once in awhile at 1B as well as just be a pinch hitter. He can provide a veteran bat with some power.

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Cabrera and the future of Hermida

The Bad – Probably 2B and the youth in LF and CF.

Three Questions – How will the team react when the league makes adjustments to the young guys? Is Jacobs as good as he was with the Mets last summer? How good can Jeremy Hermida be? (Bonus - how will the youth affect Cabrera's numbers?)

 

New York Mets

C – Paul Lo Duca

Lo Duca was another casualty of the Marlins fire sale. The team made offers to both Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina which were rejected. So, they swung a deal to get Lo Duca. Now, many seem to believe that Lo Duca is good. However, we are talking about a guy with a career OPS of just .760. He has had just two seasons where he has bettered that number. He barely crossed it in 2004, and he had a .921 OPS in 2001! So, as much as he is another veteran for the Mets who filled a need, he is not a great pick up. Of course, as with any catcher, what he is able to do with the pitching staff is going to be equally important... probably more important since I don't think he'll hit much.  

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lo Duca 136 493 53 134 27  1  5 178  67 45 41  1  1 .272 .333 .361 .694

 

1B – Carlos Delgado

Delgado actually came to the Mets from Florida first. The Mets gave up three good prospects to get him. Delgado has not had a season with a sub-.900 OPS since 1998! He is a good, solid, consistent hitter who gets on base and hits for a lot of power. However, going to Shea Stadium will likely cut into his numbers a little bit, but as you can see below, I think he will be just fine. I also think that in this lineup, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities!

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Delgado 139 506 91 144 36  1 33 281 117 98 124  0  0 .285 .401 .555 .956

 

2B – Kazuo Matsui

GM Omar Minaya had tried the whole offseason to trade Kaz, but could not find a taker will to take on his contract, or even part of it. He has been a major disappointment to the Mets. In 2004, his rookie season, hit hit a decent (for a 2B) OPS of .725 with 32 doubles and seven homers. Last year, he was awful, with just a .652 OPS and no power. Of course, he was injured much of the year, missing 75 games. Now, he will be making a lot of money, so he will likely get every chance to play, especially early in the season. I think that he will come back and put up adequate numbers to keep him in the lineup much of the year. Lets face it, he is playing for a contract. And not just another Major League contract, but maybe a deal back in Japan. Remember, he was not even included on Japan's 60 man preliminary rosters for the WBC.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Matsui  122 390 50 108 21  2  6 151  39 36 75 18  5 .277 .338 .387 .725

 

3B – David Wright

Wright is set up for a huge, monster, breakout 2006 season. He was pretty incredible last year, in just his first full season. He hit .306/.388/.523 with 42 doubles, 27 homers and 102 RBI. He also stole 17 bases. He should be the team's #3 hitter. That means guys on base in front of him and Carlos Delgado protecting him and giving him pitches to hit. Even if he hits 5th, he should have some protection in this lineup. So I do predict even better numbers for Wright in 2006!

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Wright 161 603 110 187 48  1 33 336 112 72 123 12  4 .310 .384 .557 .941

 

SS – Jose Reyes

Imagine the fantasy numbers that Reyes could put up if only he had any ability to take a walk! His Isolated Discipline numbers in his first three big league seasons? .027, .016 and .027. As of now, Reyes is still a valuable fantasy player because of his increased hits because of increased at bats. He stole 60 bases a year ago. I am predicting a few more walks in 2005, and that should translate into a few more stolen bases. Although he won't hit a lot of homers, he does hit a lot of doubles and triples. He is a solid player, but if he's going to lead off, you'd like to see a higher on-base percentage, especially with his speed!

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Reyes  162 680 103 194 29 11  7 266  62 37 81 66 13 .285 .322 .391 .713

 

LF – Cliff Floyd

For just the second time in his 13 year big league career, Cliff Floyd was able to play in 150 games. Injuries have just devastated what could have been an incredible career. Last year, in 150 games, he showed that he can still be very good. He hit .273/.358/.462 with 34 homers and 98 RBI. He found himself in Manny Ramirez rumors all offseason, but he should stick with the Mets. When healthy, he is just fine. Hopefully he can stay healthy most of the year.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Floyd  131 453 67 128 23  0 24 223  77 64 92  8  5 .283 .371 .492 .864

 

CF – Carlos Beltran

Beltran signed his $117 million contract with the Mets last offseason and promptly laid an egg. He hit just .266/.330/.414 with 34 doubles, 16 homers and 78 RBI. Also, after stealing 41 of 45 and 42 of 45 bases the previous two seasons, he was just 17 of 23 in 2005. Now, I don't expect that Beltran is capable of a .900+ OPS in Shea Stadium. However, I think he should relax a little more this year as the Mets additional moves should take away some of the attention. I think his numbers will get a little closer to his career numbers. However, Shea Stadium really does take a bite out of numbers.

Player   G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Beltran 159 629 114 175 43  4 24 298  87 71 103 32  4 .278 .351 .474 .825

 

RF – Xavier Nady/Victor Diaz

Diaz was a role player last year. Nady came to the Mets from the Padres in the Mike Cameron deal. Both are solid, but unspectacular players. I expect them to split time in RF this year. However, I also expect both can be used as a pinch hitter, Diaz could play some in LF for Floyd and Nady can play 1B or 3B if necessary. In other words, I would expect both of these guys to get significant at bats.

Player  G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Nady   133 353 44 96 17  1 16 163  66 35 73  1  1 .272 .338 .462 .799
Diaz   106 323 49 85 18  1 15 150  46 28 83  5  3 .263 .322 .464 .786

 

Two 2 Watch – Anderson Hernandez/Bret Boone

Did Boone get himself back into the shape that made him a league MVP candidate in the offseason? Personally, I think he's done and just trying one more time. Like I said above, I think that Matsui has a little bit of wiggle room. I also think that Hernandez is the future 2B. I think Hernandez will come up to the team in June or July and take over 2B duties.

Player     G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hernandez 61 208 33 60  9  3  3 84  20 13 33 13  4 .288 .330 .404 .734

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Beltran, Wright, Delgado.

The Bad – Catcher and 2B.

Three Questions – How good will David Wright be? Can Beltran have a comeback year? What will happen at 2B?

 

Philadelphia Phillies

C – Mike Lieberthal

Lieberthal was booed a lot in Philly last year. I'm not sure why. No, he did not play as well as he had in previous years, but he wasn't horrible either. He was able to catch in 118 games at age 33. He hit .263/.336/.418 with 25 doubles, 12 homers and 47 RBI. Again, these numbers were not up to his standard from previous years, but far from horrible for a catcher. The number that is probably most frustrating with Lieberthal is the $7.5 million he made last year, and he makes more this year. Personally, I expect that his numbers will drop across the board again this year, average and power. 

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lbrthl  111 361 44 91 21  0  9 139  41 36 45  0  0 .252 .320 .385 .705

 

1B – Ryan Howard

26 year old Ryan Howard played in just 88 games for the Phillies in 2005, and he won the NL Rookie of the Year. If you recall, I thought that Garrett Atkins or Willy Taveras deserved it just because they contributed to their team all season. However, it is impossible to say that Howard's contribution in short time was tremendous. He hit .288/.356/.567 with 17 doubles, 22 homers and 63 RBI. So, what is in store for him? I think that he has the ability to to very well in 2006. He can hit well, and his plate discipline and ability to walk should really help him a lot.

I feel the need to caution people from setting too high of expectations for Howard. Why? Check out these numbers:

	      Age   G  AB  R  H	2B 3B HR RBI BB	 K   AVG  OBP  SLG
Morneau 2004   23  74 280 39 76	17  0 19  58 28	 54 .271 .340 .536
Howard 2005    25  88 312 52 90	17  2 22  63 33	100 .288 .356 .567

Now, I realize that Howard was a little bit better in most of the categories, but the overall numbers are not significantly different. Morneau came back in 2005 and really struggled. Do I think that Howard will struggle in 2006? Not really, but I just think that it is fair to make the point that in young players, you never really can be sure how they will react to different things. 

 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Howard  155 562 98 156 32  1 39 307 113 69 167  0  0 .278 .357 .546 .903

 

2B – Chase Utley

Last offseason, the Phillies were upset when Placido Polanco accepted arbitration and stayed with them. Now, Polanco led the major leagues in batting average last year between the Phillies and the Tigers. However, in a choice between Polanco and Utley, it isn't even close. Did you realize that last season, Utley, despite sharing time much of the early part of the season, hit .291/.376/.540 with 39 doubles, 6 triples, 28 homers and 105 RBI. For good measure, he stole 16 bases in 19 attempts. Utley is yet another candidate to become a huge success in 2006! I think he takes a small step forward next year, but it will be a second good year in a row, and then people will start to notice.

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Utley  158 588 106 177 42  3 29 312 115 89 113 19  5 .301 .393 .531 .924

 

3B – David Bell

From the talented youth of the right side of their infield, we get the 33 year old Bell at 3B. After a decent 2004, he struggled again in 2005 hitting just .248/.310/.361 with 31 doubes, 10 homers and 61 RBI. Is he that bad? Probably not. Was he as good as his .821 OPS in 2004 would indicate? Probably not. Will he be traded at some point during this season? I think so. I expect him to be a little better in 2006, but that still isn't saying a lot.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Bell   127 425 46 110 22  0 11 165  47 36 62  0  0 .259 .317 .388 .705

 

SS – Jimmy Rollins

The 5-8, 27 year old SS heads into the 2006 season with a 34 game hitting streak in regular season games. Although he wasn't as good in '05 and he had been in '04, Rollins still does a nice job for a small shortstop who doesn't hit a lot of homers. He still drives the ball with lots of doubles, and he gets on base well and steals a lot of bases. He's a Top 5 fantasy SS. 

Player    G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Rollins  159 664 124 198 42  8 14 298  59 63 78 46 10 .298 .359 .449 .808

 

LF – Pat Burrell

2005 was a solid campaign for Burrell. He had a nice .281/.389/.504 season in which he hit 27 doubles, 32 homers and drove in 117 runs. That puts him very near his career-best numbers of 2002, the year that made him a LOT of money. He shows such good on base stills, and hit s for a lot of power. I expect him to put up similar numbers in 2006, with a few more extra base hits. If he can stay at that level, he is worthy of the contract.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Burrell  156 577 82 158 30  0 33 287 112 93 158  0  0 .274 .375 .497 .872

 

CF – Aaron Rowand

So many people seem to want to call Aaron Rowand a sleeper guy, or a breakout guy in 2006. And, maybe had he stayed with the Sox I would agree. But, it's not like he is an unknown. In 2004, he had an excellent season with 38 doubles and 24 homers. Last year, those numbers went down to 30 doubles and 13 homers. His OPS dropped almost .180! That is huge! With the change in scenery and the change of leagues, I don't expect huge things from Rowand, but I do expect him to be better than last year.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Rowand  158 581 97 165 33  2 21 265  76 50 111 14  4 .284 .341 .456 .797

 

RF – Bobby Abreu

Abreu is greatly underrated, and I hope that his performance in the Home Run Derby last year would put his name on the map. Of course, you would also hope that it wouldn't have hurt his swing so bad after the All-Star break. His average dropped to .286. It was just the second time in the last eight years that Abreu had hit under .300. His Isolated Discipline is always over .100.  He has been a 20-20 guy the last seven years. He has had two 30-30 seasons. Last year, he had 30 homers and 40 stolen bases. Overall, he is just very good. That would make it surprising that his name has been in trade rumors all offseason... until you realize he is making over $15 million a season!

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Abreu  162 593 111 176 41  1 30 309 109 118 130 30  8 .297 .414 .521 .935

 

One 2 Watch – Shane Victorino/Chris Coste

Between these two players, the Phillies have depth in the IF and OF. Coste is 32 years old and yet to make his big league debut. He can catch, play 3B, 2B and 1B and pinch hit. Victorino is an outfielder. I played college ball and did a Q&A with Chris Coste. Neither of those things is true about Victorino. Victorino is 24 years old. He got 17 at bats in 21 games for the Phillies last year after hitting .310 at Scranton Wilkes-Barre during the season. Both could play for the Phillies in 2006, although Coste could have been hurt by the Phillies signing of IF Alex Gonzalez. 

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Howard, Utley and Abreu.

The Bad – Catcher, 3B.

Three Questions – Will Howard and Utley take the next step to superstardom? How will Rowand adjust to the new league? Will J-Ro ever have a game where he doesn't get at least one hit?

 

Washington Nationals

C – Brian Schneider

Schneider has lived in some relative anonymity as a player to this point. Now that he is on Team USA in the WBC, it is possible that people will now start paying attention to the 29  year old veteran of six big league seasons. In his early years, when he was playing only part time, his offensive numbers were higher. As a full-time player, they have kind of come to a plateau. That said, his batting average and slugging percentage have both increased the past couple of seasons. I predict the same this year, minor improvements, particularly in the slugging.

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Schneider 129 419 44 111 27  0 12 174  48 39 53  0  0 .265 .328 .415 .743

 

1B – Nick Johnson

Last year, Johnson played in a career-high 131 games for the Nationals. He probably had his best season to date hitting .289/.408/.479 with 35 doubles and 15 homers. He is a solid hitter with decent power who has always put together great at bats to get on base! About the only thing that he can't do, is stay healthy. It is one of those "If Only" scenarios. If only he could stay healthy, imagine what he could do. Well, I'm adding another dozen games played to his career-high for next year. Suddenly the below numbers look pretty good. Can he actually play 143 games though?

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Johnson 143 486 74 142 38  2 17 235  82 102 101  4  3 .292 .415 .484 .899

 

2B – Jose Vidro

From 1999 to 2003, Vidro hit no lower than .304. He hit massive amounts of doubles and even flashed a lot of power for a 2B. Then in 2004 he missed 52 games. Last year, he missed 75 games. So, what does 2005 bring for him? Hopefully some health, but I think that he could still miss a significant amount of time since reports now are saying that he is still not completely healthy. Factor in health with RFK Stadium and I don't project real good things for Vidro this year.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Vidro  118 413 50 112 27  0  8 163  44 41 45  0  0 .271 .337 .395 .732

 

3B – Ryan Zimmerman

What a year 2005 was for Zimmerman. He started the year in the second semester of his junior year at Virginia, was named a 2nd team All-American, was taken with the 4th overall pick in the draft, signed a Major League contract right away, played four games in A ball, played 63 games at AA, got called up to the Nationals and played in 20 games in which he hit .397, played in the Arizona Fall League and found out the Nationals had traded Vinny Castilla, essentially giving the 21 year old the 3B job in 2006 and beyond! Pheewww! Now, what will Zimmerman do in a full year against big league pitching? Well, I think he will hit for a good average and plenty of doubles, but I don't think he'll develop a lot of power yet. Maybe down the road, and in a different ballpark.

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Zimmerman 152 516 67 151 38  0 12 225  81 38 96  4  6 .293 .341 .436 .777

 

SS – Cristian Guzman

Last year at this time, I predicted that getting away from Scott Ullger would hopefully mean that Guzman could take a step forward in his career. Nope! Didn't happen. In fact, he may have been the worst player to put on a big league uniform in 2005. The 27 year old hit .219/.260/.314 with 19 doubles, 6 triples and 4 homers. Awful. He was losing time to Jamey Carroll! I do expect Guzman to be a little better in 2006, but probably not even as good as he was in his not-so-good offensive years in Minnesota. The Nationals brought in Royce Clayton to push Guzman (who still has three years and about $12 million coming to him, so I don't know if it will work) and be insurance. Clayton has never been real good, but overall, his career numbers are not horrible.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Guzman   139 479 67 123 21  7  5 173  37 26 74 14  5 .257 .295 .361 .656

Clayton   71 145 18  36  7  1  1  48  13 10 28  8  3 .248 .297 .331 .628

 

LF – Ryan Church

Church was the 14th round pick for Cleveland in 2000 out of Nevada. The 27 year old is another guy who is ready and deserves a chance at a full-time gig. If he can post the .800+ OPS that I've projected, I am sure Nationals brass will be thrilled. However, in 268 at bats in 102 games last year for the team, he did post an .817 OPS. He hit 15 homers, three triples and nine homers. The lone problem appears to be his strikeouts. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Church 131 448 68 126 26  1 16 202  62 51 105  2  2 .281 .355 .451 .806

  

CF – Alfonso Soriano

I'm sure a lot of people won't like or agree with this projection. Soriano has not had an OPS below .800 since his first full big league season with the Yankees in 2001. And I project him barely over .700. In his past four seasons, he has averaged 41 doubles, 35 homers and 97 RBI. But there is a lot going against him in 2006. First, moving from hitter-friendly Arlington to the vastness of RFK Stadium is not good. Second, he has terrible plate discipline. Take him away from Arlington, and I fear that he becomes Torii Hunter, if even that! Finally, he has just a horrible attitude. Now, Manny Ramirez can get away with that because he is actually a good overall hitter. It is an interesting year coming for Soriano, especially since it is a contract year for him, his first free agency. The team wants him to play in the OF. As a Corner Outfielder, he is league average, at best. As a 2B, he is one of the elite (not with my projected numbers, but historically). So, I can understand his unwillingness to move.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Soriano 148 577 63 146 29  2 21 242  66 36 118 23  6 .253 .297 .419 .716

 

RF – Jose Guillen

Jose Guillen has gone from malcontent, having been kicked off the Angels roster during a pennant race with a week to go in the 2004 season, to being considered a great leader in the Nationals clubhouse. Although his homer total dropped by three, his doubles actually increased. His average dropped some but considering the ball park, he was not bad at all. Look for him to improve upon that just a little bit.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Guillen 139 512 76 147 28  1 23 246  79 46 96  1  2 .287 .346 .480 .826

 

One 2 Watch – Marlon Byrd/Sammy Sosa

I think Sosa is retiring. I don't think he'll come to the Nationals at their price. That's fine. He is probably done. Marlon Byrd was a flop  in Philly, but could compete with Church for a starting outfield spot. Now 28, it is hard to believe that Byrd will ever be more than a role player on a team, a solid starter, but never a star. 

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Johnson, maybe, and the future of Zimmerman.

The Bad – Likely everyone else, especially the SS's.

Three Questions – Can Johnson and Guillen stay healthy? Is Guzman really that bad? How will his attitude, a position change and going from the best hitter's park to the worst affect Soriano's numbers?

Well, that is it for Part 6 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Next up in the series, we will start discussing the pitchers. I am still not sure what format to use for those, so hopefully it will be worthy of your time to read. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.

OTHER THOUGHTS

And on that note, I wish you a good day!. If you have any questions or comments on anything you have read above, please e-mail me.

 

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