Friday, February 3, 2006

Super (Bowl) Thoughts

Other Stuff

FANTASY PERSPECTIVE:

National League West Hitters

Good morning everyone! Well, Super Bowl weekend is upon us and if it is possible that you wanted to hear any more prognostication about the game, we have a little bit more for you today. Following the NL West Hitting Projections, you will find the Super (Bowl) Thoughts. There, you will find the thoughts and opinions on Sunday's Super Bowl game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Seattle Seahawks. We have quite the cast of "pickers" today, so you will want to at least check out who made their predictions!

Today, I will dive into the NL West division hitters in Part 4 of my Fantasy Perspective series. If you would like more detail on why I want to do this series as well as some of the thoughts that go into my 2006 Projections, please click here.

If you have any questions or comments about what I write here, or regarding your league, please e-mail me. If you would be fun, feel free to ask questions or comment on anything down below in the Comments section.

Disclaimer: What you read below are simply my opinions. Obviously I have no knowledge of what will happen in the 2006 season, so please take the information for what it is worth (fun). Also, these opinions are subject to change as spring training approaches. All players listed are either projected starters, or starters based on my opinion.

To this point, I have only done my look at the:
Top 20 Impact Rookie Hitters for 2006

Top 20 Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2006

American League West Hitters

American League Central Hitters

American League East Hitters

PART 4: NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST HITTERS

In previous years, the American League Central was generally accepted to be the worst division in baseball. Last year, I predicted that the NL West would be baseball's worst division, and I think it is fair to say that I got that one right! The Padres won the division but barely finished above .500. They were then swept in the first round of the playoffs. The Diamondbacks looked pretty clueless with their off-season acquisitions. The Giants had their age show with a rash of injuries, none bigger than that of Barry Bonds. And, to be honest, the Rockies showed as much direction as any team in the division, despite their last place finish. The division is full of change from three of the four teams, but I still think it will prove to be the weakest division.  So, let’s get going on some analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.

Arizona Diamondbacks

C – Johnny Estrada

Estrada struggled last year due to injury, and as Brian McCann proved himself, Estrada became expendable. The Braves needed relievers, so they sent Estrada to the D-Backs for two middle relievers. Estrada had a huge year in 2003, but fell back in 2004 and last year was not a good year. Heading to a hitter's ballpark like The Bob should help Estrada, and I would predict an improvement, but not a big one.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Estrada 122 395 38 102 27  0  6 147  48 34 51  0  0 .258 .317 .372 .689
 

1B – Conor Jackson/Tony Clark

Last year, Tony Clark hit 30 home runs in just 349 at bats. He posted a 1.002 OPS after being under .800 the previous two seasons. Where did that come from, or is that a ballpark situation? Clark signed a two year extension with the team, but they have now said that former first round pick Conor Jackson will be the regular starting 1B. Jackson has put up spectacular numbers through his minor league career, but struggled some in his brief big league chances a year ago. Part of that was the logjam at 1B with Clark and Chad Tracy. I expect that Jackson will get more at bats and have a higher OPS. I just can’t imagine Clark repeating his amazing 2005 numbers.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jackson 134 414 46 118 33  1 11 186  59 45 53  4  3 .285 .355 .449 .804
Clark   103 268 30  66 13  0 15 124  45 25 66  0  0 .246 .311 .463 .773
 

2B – Orlando Hudson

At 28, many are predicting big things for Orlando Hudson. He certainly has the tools to put together that kind of season. In Toronto, O-Dawg was remarkably consistent. His OPS in his four seasons has stayed between .720 and .780. With the league adjustment, I think that he will remain in the lower side of that. However, he will play every day, so I don’t think he is a bad fantasy option. Also, he is probably the best defensive 2B in baseball, so he should still help the Arizona pitching staff.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hudson 145 522 59 145 27  6  8 208  52 45 83  9  2 .278 .335 .398 .734
  

3B – Chad Tracy

For awhile, we kept hearing how good Chad Tracy is and can be. His 2004 rookie season was a little disappointing as he posted a .285 average but only a .755 OPS because of just eight homers. I didn’t realize how good Tracy was in 2005. He 25 year old hit .308 with 34 doubles, 27 homers and 72 RBI. Altogether, it was a .912 OPS season for him. I’m predicting another big season for Tracy. His OPS will be down slightly, but he will also play in a dozen more games. He becomes a major fantasy sleeper especially since he will be eligible in the OF and at 1B in most leagues and will be moving to 3B for this season.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Tracy  157 553 67 167 37  2 29 295  91 49 84  3  1 .302 .359 .533 .892
 

SS – Craig Counsell  

Counsell is one of those guys that every team really needs. He is a guy who can play all three infield positions. That said, he has never been much of a hitter. He has always posted solid Isolated Discipline numbers. For his career he is at .085, a number he has be very consistent with. After three straight sub-.700 OPS seasons, he showed a little bit of pop last year with 34 doubles, 14 more than his previous career high. He also had nine homers which was five more than his previous season high. Counsell is a solid player, but I don’t expect him to maintain that this year. I reality, he is holding the shortstop position for one Stephen Drew.

Player     G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Counsell  113 389 54 97 14  2  5 130  26 45 51 15  3 .249 .327 .334 .661
 

LF – Luis Gonzalez

The 38 year old Gonzo has seen his numbers decline each of the past three seasons. The team was trying to unload him in the offseason, but they were not successful. I am predicting another drop, putting him below average for a corner outfielder.  After experiencing shoulder problems and opting for surgery in 2004, he did return and played in 157 games in 2005. I don’t think he will match that number again in 2006 as other players are moving up the system.  As you can see, I see a pretty drastic dip in his power output this year. He has been good for so long, I almost feel guilty predicting such a big drop.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Gonzalez 146 518 73 138 30  0 16 216  72 62 85  2  2 .266 .345 .417 .762
 

CF – Eric Byrnes

Why the Diamondbacks invested so much money, albeit for just one year, in Byrnes is beyond me. The team clearly has a better option available within the system who is ready right now (see below). He had a very solid 2004 season in Oakland, but even that resulted in an OPS of just .814. He played for three teams last year and really struggled, hitting just .226. I think he was found out. You see, Byrnes is one of those all-effort guys who fans love to watch. You see him diving all over the outfield and making catches. But if you step back, you realize that most outfielders probably would have been camped under most of those plays. He is on SportsCenter so often that people forget that he really isn’t that good. He is a nice bit-part for a team, who would be a fine fourth outfielder, a role I believe he will have by early in the second half of the season.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Byrnes 124 451 65 119 25  1 13 185  54 43 83 12  4 .264 .328 .410 .738
 

RF – Shawn Green

The 33 year old Green had another solid, but far from spectacular season last year. He hit .286/.355/.477 with 37 doubles, 22 home runs and 73 RBI. Granted, these numbers would have been appreciated by the Twins, but not anywhere near worth the $8.5 million that he got for them. His OPS has been between .811 and .832 the last three seasons… and The Bob is considered a hitter’s park. I predict that he will increase his numbers a little bit in 2006, but still nowhere near that .900 OPS mark.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Green   159 575 82 160 35  2 26 277  84 78 108  6  4 .278 .364 .482 .846
 

One 2 Watch – Carlos Quentin/Stephen Drew

I think that by early in the second half, two of the best prospects in the Diamondbacks remarkably strong prospect class will make their mark in the major leagues. As I said above, I am shocked that the team did not just go with Quentin as their starting CF from the start of the season. He can prove no more in the minor leagues. The D-Backs took him with their 1st round pick in 2003 out of Stanford and he has hit ever since.  He has hit over .300 at every level and been on base over 40% of the time at every level. He has an incredible knack for getting hit by pitches. He may not  be ready to be an All-Star in 2005, but he is ready for a full-time job. Stephen Drew should not be given the starting job out of spring, however, I don’t think that he is far from being ready. The 2004 first round pick from Florida State held out until hours before he would have gone into the 2005 draft pool. He signed and hit .389 in 38 games of high-A ball. He moved up to AA and hit just .218 in 29 games there. He should hit for average, displays great discipline at the plate and should hit for some power. I think both will be in the Arizona starting lineup by July.

Player    G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Quentin  72 231 35 68 13  1  9 110  31 29 30  4  2 .294 .373 .476 .849
Drew     65 208 29 56  8  1  3  75  26 21 35  7  2 .269 .336 .361 .697
 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good –  Gonzalez.

The Bad – Catcher, middle infield.

The Questions – Can Gonzalez return to full health? How will the middle infield play out? Can Glaus stay healthy and hit for power?

 Colorado Rockies

C – Yorvit Torrealba

Torrealba comes to the Rockies from Seattle. Now, he has been a backup throughout his six years in the big leagues. He should be the leading candidate for the starting job and it will be interesting to see how he responds. Although certainly not great numbers, I think he will put up adequate numbers. It is also important to know that former Twin Danny Ardoin and JD Closser are the other options. Torrealba should have some leeway.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Trrlba   123 393 45 103 20  0 11 156  54 35 76  0  0 .262 .322 .397 .719
 

1B – Todd Helton

One of the best, most consistent, purest hitters in baseball, Helton had another strong year in 2005, despite the fact that he had little around him and missed time due to injury. In 144 games, he hit .320/.435/.534 with 45 doubles, 20 homers and 79 RBI. The homers and RBI were career lows while his Isolated Discipline of .125 was also a career high. These numbers signify pitcher's unwillingness to pitch to him, particularly with runners in scoring position. I believe that he has a few guys around him that he could see a few more pitches to hit, so I expect a very strong 2006 from Helton.

Player   G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Helton  155 569 114 192 44  1 33 337 104 137 73  2  0 .337 .466 .592 1.058
 

2B – Luis Gonzalez

A former Rule V pick, Gonzalez has been with the team for two years now. He has played a utility role, but in doing so, he has played in more than 100 games each year. Following the Aaron Miles trade, it would appear that Gonzalez has a good chance to finally to start. It will be interesting to see what he will do with it. 

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Gonzalez  138 467 57 134 26  0 14 202  49 32 84  4  3 .287 .333 .433 .765
 

3B – Garrett Atkins

Last year at this time, I predicted that Atkins would be the NL's top rookie, with Clint Barmes #2. Well, Atkins put up some excellent numbers after missing the first few weeks with injury. Overall, he hit .287/.347/.426 with 31 doubles, 13 homers and 89 RBI. A very solid rookie campaing. I am surprised he didn't receive more votes for the award. I expect that Atkins will take another step forward. In my opinion, he will add more power in the form of homers and doubles, and he will be able to drive in a lot of runs.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Atkins  152 588 73 177 38  2 21 282 107 62 87  1  2 .301 .368 .480 .847
 

SS – Clint Barmes

Barmes likely would have been the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year had he not had his fluke accident and missed about half of the season. That was a strange injury, so I don't believe it will be anything to worry about this year. In more playing time, I believe that he will have an even better year, proving that he really is a solid big leaguer.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Barmes  151 611 96 170 34  2 19 265  73 39 79 11  7 .278 .322 .434 .755
 

LF – Matt Holliday

I have to admit, I was shocked when I saw Holliday's 2005 numbers with the Rockies. First, I didn't realize how much he played (125 games, 479 ABs). He hit .307 with 24 doubles, 19 homers and 79 RBI. Those are excellent numbers and numbers that he should be able to add to as he gains more confidence at the plate. Look for a big year for him in 2006.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Holliday 146 545 82 159 30  5 24 271  96 52 99 12  4 .292 .353 .497 .851
 

CF – Cory Sullivan

In 2003, Sullivan hit .300 at AA Tulsa. He did not play at all in 2004, and spent all of 2005 with the Rockies. He played a lot of CF. In 139 games, he hit .294/.343/.386 with 15 doubles. He is not a big extra base hit guy, and probably will not make a great fantasy player. However, he played well enough to be given another year as the full timer. I expect his rate numbers to come down a little bit with the increased responsibility and playing time, but not significantly. 

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Sullivan  151 474 77 132 23  4  7 184  43 34 108 21  8 .278 .327 .388 .715
 

RF – Brad Hawpe

Hawpe is more of the traditional power hitter types. Last year, in 101 games, he had 10 doubles and nine homers. Much of the optimism surrounding Hawpe is due to the 31 homers he hit at Colorado Springs in 2004. Last year, he hit just .262, but he showed a good ability to take a few walks. I think his power will develop more in 2006 although his average and some of his other numbers may not look great.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hawpe   139 431 55 111 14  1 19 184  64 49 110  2  1 .258 .333 .427 .760
 

One 2 Watch – Omar Quintanilla/Ryan Shealy

Quintanilla was one of my favorite prospects to follow the last couple of years with the A's. He came to the Rockies last year with Eric Byrnes in the deal that netted Oakland lefty Joe Kennedy. He had hit well at every level. He quickly came up to the Rockies and really struggled with the bat, but he is very close to being ready. If Gonzalez struggles, do not be surprised if Q is the Rockies 2B. It is a different situation for Shealy. He is a 26 year old power-hitting 1B. Well, Todd Helton and his ability and contract are around, so unless Shealy switches positions, it will be difficult for him to move up and contribute.

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Helton, Atkins, Barmes, Holliday

The Bad – Just the youth-factor.

Three Questions – How will that young OF stand up over a full season? Can Todd Helton stay healthy all year? Will Clint Barmes accept food gifts from Helton again?

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

C – Dioner Navarro

Although he will only turn 22 years old next week, it is probably a big year for Navarro. He has not been great in his two brief big league looks so far. But it is important to remember how young he is. It is important to remain patient with Navarro. However, it is important to know that another prospect, Russell Martin, is almost ready too. Of course, rumor has it that the Dodgers may have some interest in free agent Bengie Molina. I just don't think he is worth what he is asking for.

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Navarro 104 353 37 87 14  0  8 125  31 33 41  1  1 .246 .311 .354 .665
 

1B – Nomar Garciparra/Hee Seop Choi

So, Nomar is switching positions, huh? I don't think he will have any problem adjusting to 1B defensively. The only concern with him is his health. After missing 81 games in 2004, Nomar missed 100 games last year. If he is healthy, we know he can hit, or at least we remember that he could hit. But he is also 32 years old, so will he come back with the same bat? Choi has done nothing bug disappoint everyone since his big league debut. This lefty-righty situation would make sense for a platoon situation, but neither hitter really hits left-hand pitching. I think Nomar plays as long as he can with the occasional day off.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Grcpra 122 439 62 131 31  1 14 206  64 32 48  0  0 .298 .346 .469 .815
Choi    91 255 26  66 14  0 13 119  29 32 68  0  1 .259 .341 .467 .808
 

2B – Jeff Kent

37 year old Jeff Kent remained productive in 2005. He is one of the players that I don't really care for who I always project a decline for, and so far, he really hasn't. Kent had an OPS of .889 last year, his eighth straight season where that number has been above .860. I am predicting some missed time in 2006 for Kent, and a low OPS (for him). However, that OPS still makes him one of the better 2B options in the big leagues.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Kent   138 507 89 143 31  1 23 245  88 56 85  4  3 .282 .353 .483 .837
 

3B – Bill Mueller

Mueller  really does represent the definition of veteran, professional hitter and person. He will fit in and perform well for the Dodgers in 2006. However, he is far from a spectacular player. The year he won the AL batting title, he had an OPS over .900. He has only had two other full seasons with an OPS over .800. Dodgers Stadium will likely hurt his power, but Mueller should continue to put together great at bats. But in terms of fantasy value, he is not in the upper third of 3B options.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Mueller  142 503 80 145 32  1 10 209  73 61 67  0  0 .288 .365 .416 .781
 

SS – Rafael Furcal

After six solid seasons in Atlanta, the 27 year old Furcal took $39 million over the next three years to become the Dodgers SS. He is generally considered a great player and he really does well for a leadoff hitter despite the fact that he doesn't walk and get on base as much as you would like. But once on base, he can wreak some havoc. That said, he has never had a season with an OPS of over .795. Couple that with the change of leagues and it could be a tough year for Furcal.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Furcal  149 579 93 161 27  9  8 230  54 53 75 36  8 .278 .339 .397 .736
 

LF – Jayson Werth/Jose Cruz

Well, the Dodgers can't be planning on getting much batting average from the left field position, however both of these guys do do a good job of getting on base and hitting for some power. I also believe that Cruz will get plenty of time out in CF to try to keep Lofton fresh. Is there anyone else out there who wonders what Cruz's career would have been like if the Mariners had not traded him to Toronto for two relievers in 1997?

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Cruz   134 435 55 112 21  2 18 191  58 54 103  3  1 .257 .339 .439 .779
Werth   94 277 35  71 12  1 10 115  36 31  83  5  4 .256 .331 .415 .746
 

CF – Kenny Lofton

How much is left in Lofton's 38 year old legs? Well, I am sure that I asked the same about his 37 year old legs last year when he signed with the Phillies, and he came up with a great season. In 110 games, he only hit .335/.392/.420 with 15 doubles and 22 stolen bases. I assume that he will team with Furcal at the top of the lineup to give the middle of the order some guys to drive in. He will need time off though. I can't see him duplicating his batting average from 2005, but he will still find a way to get on base, I'm sure.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lofton  123 402 68 116 16  3  2 144  38 41 45 26  6 .289 .354 .358 .713
 

RF – JD Drew

Say what you will about him or his techniques, but he is good at his job! I'm talking about Scott Boras. To have convinced the Dodgers that Drew was worth five years and $55 million after just one good season of health was amazing. Drew managed to miss 90 games a year ago. When he plays, he is very good. He hits for average, takes a lot of walks and hits for power. He is the hitter that so many projected from him. He just can not stay healthy. In 2004, he played in 145 games with the Braves. He has not played in more than 135 games in a season other than that. I expect Drew to be very good in 2006, but we know that he will also miss a significant amount of time.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Drew   124 438 84 130 24  2 25 233  69 79 91  3  2 .297 .404 .532 .936
 

One 2 Watch – Cesar Izturis

25 year old Izturis had made himself one of the more respected SS in the National League last year. He was even hitting a little bit. But in September, he had Tommy John surgery. He will likely be out until at least the All-Star break, but I can't help but think it will be a little longer than that. Also, a move to 2B may be necessary, at least in the interim. Of course, with Furcal signed for three years, it has also become reality. Jeff Kent is in the final year of his contract, so if the Dodgers are out of contention when Izturis is ready to come back, Kent could be dealt for prospects. I just don't really expect much of a contribution from Izturis yet this year.

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Kent and the healthy version of Drew.

The Bad – Catcher and Left Field.

Three Questions – How many games will JD Drew and Nomar Garciaparra play? Will the new veteran infield be able to meet their own expectations and post solid seasons? How long will Kent keep playing at this level?

San Diego Padres

C – Mike Piazza

What are the Padres thinking signing the 37 year old Piazza and telling him that he can catch "as much as he wants." It makes little sense. He is a bad defensive catcher and a worse 1B. An AL team would have made sense, but there wasn't a team in the AL that was interested. So, the Padres sign him. I just can't imagine him catching more than about half of the games, and maybe getting a few games in at 1B and some pinch hitting. I think you could easily convince me that my projections for Piazza are a bit optimistic. Last year, in 113 games with the Mets, he hit just .251/.326/.425 with 23 doubles, 19 homers and 62 RBI. I have his overall numbers just slightly below those numbers. Of course, it isn't so bad that he'll just be making $2 million in 2006 after making $16+ million with the Mets in 2005.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Piazza  107 370 38 100 17  0 13 156  47 41 66  0  0 .270 .343 .422 .765
 

1B – Ryan Klesko/Adrian Gonzalez

After 12 straight seasons with an OPS over .800, last year Klesko hit just .248 on his way to an OPS of .776 OPS. Klesko was helped very much by an Isolated Discipline of .110, and after he whined so much the last two years, the Padres are moving right field in about 10 feet which should help him hit a couple more homers. I fully expect Klesko to get plenty of time in the OF as I think Gonzalez is worth getting plenty of playing time at 1B. Gonzalez was the #1 overall pick in the 2000 draft and slowely worked his way up. The Marlins sent him to the Rangers for Ugueth Urbina. In Texas he was behind Mark Teixeira. He came to the Padres this winter as part of the Adam Eaton/Chris Young deal.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Klesko   124 406 57 107 21  1 20 190  61 66 71  2  3 .264 .367 .468 .835
Gonzalez 136 446 64 130 20  1 18 206  56 35 87  0  0 .291 .343 .462 .805
 

2B – Josh Barfield

The son of former big leaguers Jesse Barfield, Josh has a chance to be a very good player. He has been one of my favorite prospects since he hit .337 with 46 doubles, 16 homers and 128 RBI in 2003 in Class A Lake Elsinore. He had a disappointing year in AA in 2004, but still managed to drive in a lot of runs. He moved up to AAA in 2005 and regained his prospect form. He his .310/.370/.450 with 25 doubles, 15 homers and 72 RBI. He also stole 20 bases. With the team's trade of Mark Loretta, 2B appears to be Barfield's to lose. The team did bring in veterans like Mark Bellhorn, but I think he'd be around for just in case. I expect Barfield to be very good. But I don't expect excellence in his rookie year.

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Barfield  143 509 65 137 23  2 11 197  56 36 117 15  6 .269 .317 .387 .704
 

3B – Vinny Castilla

Why would the Padres want Vinny Castilla. I realize that Brian Lawrence is nothing to write home about, but what has Castilla ever done outside of Coors Field or the Launching Pad in Atlanta? Last year with the Nationals, the 37 year old hit just .253 with a .722 OPS. I expect similar numbers in San Diego for Castilla. Petko is another pitcher's park and Castilla is not good anyway.

Player     G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Castilla  138 472 47 122 28  0 15 195  60 33 91  1  1 .258 .307 .413 .720
 

SS – Khalil Greene

I have been fairly negative on most of the Padres hitters so far, so I should change that up. I think that this will be a breakout year of sorts for Khalil Greene. I think he will find a way to stay healthy most of the year, and if he can do that, we should start seeing the extra base hit power that we had expected. Now, last year Greene hit just .250 with a .727 OPS, so I really do expect quite the leap for Greene, but at age 26 and with just about 1,000 at bats, he should be ready to do something offensively. He just has not played more than 139 games in a season yet.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Greene  151 531 71 146 38  3 20 250  89 49 106  8  2 .275 .336 .471 .807
 

LF – Dave Roberts

Roberts has been the subject of trade rumors most of the offseason. Most had him going back to the Red Sox, but those talks should be over with the Sox acquisition of Coco Crisp. Roberts is a good little player who really had a strong 2005 season. Unfortunately, he only played in 115 games last year because of a hamstring injury. Since speed is such a big part of his game, that is not good. I expect Roberts will miss more time in 2006 as well as split some time with the likes of Ben Johnson. He will contribute though, and if the Padres fall out of contention, Roberts is again a possible trade chip to a contending team.

Player    G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Roberts  98 333 60 85 14  5  5 124  28 38 42 24  7 .255 .332 .372 .704
 

CF – Mike Cameron

Cameron did not play in 86 games last year. Most of the missed time was due to his horrific injury that he endured while diving for a ball in right centerfield and knocking heads with Carlos Beltran. Cameron is what he is as a player. He has never and probably will never hit for much average. He has pretty consistently shown an ability to take a walk though, so that is a positive. He also has a knack for doubles and homers. Add in some stolen bases and plenty of Gold Glove plays in the OF and Cameron does have value to a team. In the last seven seasons, his OPS has not dropped below .775... although I project that it will in 2006.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Cameron  152 542 77 134 34  3 18 228  70 68 139 21  8 .247 .331 .421 .752
 

RF – Brian Giles

Did anyone really think there was any chance that Giles was going anywhere else this offseason? He was staying in San Diego all along. I think that moving in the right field wall even a little bit will help Giles add more homers to his totals from the last couple of years. I think Giles is one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. Even in a pitcher's park, he has been a better than average fantasy player. His OPS has been over .900 in seven of the past eight years and I expect that he will go back above that number again in 2006.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Giles   156 581 92 179 41  5 25 305  85 113 66  8  3 .308 .421 .525 .946
 

One 2 Watch – George Kottaras  

Kottaras is a 23 year old catcher from Ontario. He had an excellent 2005 season, hitting over .300 at Lake Elsinore and doing well in his last 29 games at AA. Kottaras has had OPS's between .800 and .900 at each stop he has made, but I think that he projects to add more power. With Piazza likely around only for 2006 (can't imagine the Padres picking up the $8 million option for 2007), Kottaras can spend 2006 at AA and be ready to take over catching duties in 2007.

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Giles, Green.

The Bad – Catcher, 3B and LF.

The Question Marks – How will Barfield perform in his first season and will Bruce Bochy stick with him in struggles? Can Greene make the next leap forward? How much will Piazza be able to contribute in 2006?

San Francisco Giants

C – Mike Matheny

At age 34, Matheny arguably had the best offensive season of his career in 2005. Granted, that still resulted in an OPS of only .701. He had career highs in doubles (34), homers (13) and RBI (59) for the Giants. He used only a .245 batting average and .295 on-base percentage to go with a .406 slugging percentage. I certainly don't expect Matheny to repeat his numbers from 2005, but if he can even maintain some of the power he showed, he can still help the Giants.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Matheny  127 412 33 104 24  0 10 158  49 29 84  0  0 .252 .302 .383 .685
 

1B – Lance Niekro

The son of former Twins pitcher Joe Niekro, it appears that the Giants will be using Lance as their every day first baseman now that they decided to let JT Snow leave as a free agent. I think that is the right move. Niekro has been in the organization for six seasons, and last year he performed admirably in 133 games at 1B. His ceiling is not real high, but he has shown plenty of power. In just 278 at bats last year, he did have 12 homers. I expect given more playing time that he will increase his batting average while maintaining his power rates. Not great for a first baseman, but he is a cheap option at 1B. Plus, he just turned 27, so it is time for the organization to finally see what he is going to be capable of.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Niekro  134 435 48 118 22  1 16 190  66 29 85  0  0 .271 .317 .437 .754
 

2B – Ray Durham

The diminutive 34 year old Durham was able to play in 142 games in 2005. He had missed 94 games over the previous two seasons. His OPS dropped last year by .063 points. I expect it to drop about the same amount in 2006. I don't see him hitting for as much power and I would guess that his walk totals will come down a little bit as well. Durham. This is a place that I could be wrong. Before his .785 OPS last year, it had been over .800 the previous seven seasons. I just think that Durham has been beat up so much the last few years that he is a prime candidate to decline a bit.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Durham  144 525 84 140 33  1  8 199  68 55 64  8  3 .267 .336 .379 .715
 

3B – Pedro Feliz 

One thing that people reading any of my fantasy perspectives needs to remember... I am almost always a year early on my projections. I thought that 2005 was the year that Feliz would finally bust out. He didn't, but even with disappointment, he put up a decent offensive line of 30 doubles, 20 homers and 81 RBI. The team traded Edgardo Alfonso to the Angels so 3B is Feliz's for now. Because he doesn't walk much, it would take some remarkable power numbers to get his OPS up over .800, but I think he will come close. He should finally, actually just be able to play one position. Also, having Bonds back most every day will help him tremendously. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Feliz  160 592 81 158 36  2 25 273  94 38 103  1  2 .267 .311 .461 .772
 

SS – Omar Vizquel

The time has come. It had to eventually, right? I think that Vizquel has very little left. I could be wrong. I thought he was done three years ago. After posting a .748 OPS in 2004, his last in Cleveland, Vizquel's OPS fell to .691 in 2005. I see that already low number tumbling even further in 2006. I can still see him hitting some doubles, but other power should fall. His defense will likely keep him in the lineup most days. This is where the intelligence of the three year contract to the then-37 year old can be questioned.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Vizquel  147 539 57 137 25  2  2 172  39 45 55 17 11 .254 .312 .319 .631
 

LF – Barry Bonds

One of the biggest question marks heading into the 2006 is Barry Bonds. First, how is his knee? It was always so funny to me that people bashed Bonds for taking so long to come back from the knee injury, yet they forget that it is the same injury that kept Joe Mauer out for most of the 2004 season. Second, we know that Bonds will show up to camp having lost a lot of weight. That will, of course, be questioned to excruciating ends. However, because of that, how will it affect the numbers he has put up in recent years. In my projections, I figured that Bonds should be given a day off every week, even if the club has a scheduled day off. At 41, they need to take care of him. I projected that he will get slightly more at bats per game because people may try to pitch to him. His other numbers, I dropped the rate a little bit. In other words, these numbers actually represent a small decrease from where he had been. Still very strong numbers, aren't there. His Isolated Discipline is just out of this world. For what it is worth, I will always be a Bonds fan regardless of what comes out, and I hope that he has a great year to shut people up.

Player   G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Bonds   133 386 101 119 24  0 41 266 106 133 52  4  1 .308 .486 .689 1.175
 

CF – Randy Winn/Steve Finley

When Randy Winn came over to the Giants from the Mariners at midseason, he had a huge impact on the Giants. In just 58 games in San Francisco, Winn hit .359/.391/.680 with 22 doubles, 14 homers and 26 RBI. Those are incredible numbers. Overall, he hit .306. Many seem to think that the Angels acquisition of Steve Finley would mean less playing time for Winn. I totally disagree. I think that Finley can really only play CF whereas Winn can play LF and RF. Both Bonds and Alou will need plenty of time off in an attempt to keep them healthy. On their days off, Winn likely will move into the vacated position with Finley taking over in CF. Winn has earned the right to play every day, not just because of what he did for the Giants in 2005. Finley went from great to horrible in 2005. And yet all anyone wants to talk about is Barry Bonds! Huh?!

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Winn    160 616 83 186 41  5 17 288  73 34 94 17  9 .302 .338 .468 .806
Finley   89 305 33  81 11  1 11 127  39 30 51  5  2 .266 .331 .416 .748
 

RF – Moises Alou

The 39 year old Alou missed 39 games last year, but when he was in the lineup, he was very good! He hit .323 with a .918 OPS. That included 21 doubles and 19 homers. I expect that Alou will again spend some time on the DL as well as just some regular days off. I can't imagine him still hitting that much over .300, but he will be very productive in terms of power.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Alou   129 477 73 137 23  1 21 225  74 57 59  3  1 .287 .363 .472 .835
 

One 2 Watch – Fred Lewis

Lewis hit .310/.424/.451 with 20 doubles, 11 triples, eight homers and 57 RBI at AA Norwich in 2004. He ended up repeating that level in 2005 and it just didn't go as well at all. He hit .273/.361/.396 with 28 doubles, 7 triples, seven homers and 47 RBI. 2006 becomes a vital year for Lewis. He will be 25 years old the whole 2006 season and should be promoted to AAA. Because of the extreme age of three of the four primary outfielders with the Giants, it is important that Lewis be ready to go in 2007. Lewis has shown a great ability to get on base. He also has tremendous speed. Since 2003, his stolen base totals have been 30, 33 and 30. 

 

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Bonds, Winn, Alou.

The Bad – Vizquel.

The Question Marks – How will Bonds play at 41, after missing all of the 2005 season, and how will he answer all of the questions he will have to face throughout the season? Can Pedro Feliz develop into the kind of power hitter I think he can be? Is it possible that the team could get any older?

 

Well, that is it for Part 4 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed my previews of the hitters in baseball. Next week, I will post the remaining previews for hitters, the NL Central and NL East. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.

SUPER (BOWL) THOUGHTS

As promised above, today, I will be posting a paragraph or so from a number of bloggers, players and media types about Sunday's Super Bowl game in Detroit. It is being held in Detroit, so you would assume there would be a Motown groove rocking the halftime show, right? But no, the skeletonic Rolling Stones will instead be performing. That is too bad! The game pits the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 6th seed out of the AFC, against the top seed in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks. Just by looking at those seedings, you would certainly assume that the Seahawks would be the favorite. However, much of the talk I have heard has put the Steelers as favorite. That isn't necessarily surprising. The AFC is generally considered stronger. Also, the Steelers beat the Bengals, Colts and Broncos the past three weeks to show that they are the ht team right now. So, what do I think will happen?

Seth's Thoughts and Predictions - First things first, I'm all about the Super Bowl commercials. That's what really matters to me! People can talk during the game. I have no problem with that. But just please respect the fact that many people want silence during the commercials so we can watch the commercials. With that in mind...

I think that it is going to be an incredibly boring first three quarters of the game. The Steelers are a run-first team led by the speed or Willie Parker and the brawn of Jerome Bettis. The Seahawks have the NFL's Offensive MVP Shawn Alexander who can do it all. So, what does that mean? Probably that both teams will air it out. So, it could very easily become a Ben Roethlisberger versus Matt Hasselbeck show. Honestly, I would rank the two very similarly. So, maybe it comes down to the Wide Receivers. Do I take Hines Ward and Antwan Randle-El? Or, do I go with Darrell Jackson and Joe Juravicious? Randle-El and Jackson are all about the big play. Hines Ward is so consistently good, probably the best of the four. But Juravicious just has a knack for the big game. So then it may come down to the defenses. The Steelers have a very strong defense with Troy Polumalu, the toughest and cheapest player in the NFL on their side, along with Jerry Porter. The Seahawks really don't have the big names yet their defense is very strong as well.

So, I am going to predict that a return of some sorts will make the difference in the game. I will return to Antwan Randle-El and predict that he will return a punt for a TD that will be the difference in the game. At that point, Vikings fans will gloat about how Koren Robinson is with them, and if the Seahawks would not have let him go, maybe they would have won.

Seth's Prediction - Steelers 23, Seahawks 17.

But, what do others think will happen? Here is out panel of pickers with their predictions:

From Mike V - Is a frequent contributor to this site. The owner of GuardDog Watches, he has helped this site by donating prizes for some of our contests.

As a lifelong Viking fan, I can't say I find much enjoyment in the Super Bowl anymore. After the '98 debacle with the "kick" and the "knee", the era of me hosting or attending any type of Super Bowl party came to an abrupt end. In fact, I've only watched portions of each game since '98 with my interest more focused on the ads than the game.

There are, however, a number of reasons why this year's Super Bow is intriguing to me.

1.) I'm rooting for Detroit I'm sick and tired of every sportswriter and broadcaster schmuck who insists on slamming the NFL's decision to host the Super Bowl in Detroit. Yeah, Detroit is not San Diego but I'm betting they put on a heckuva show and show everyone a good time.

2.) The Stamping of Vindication Cards While I'll probably root for Pittsburgh, I like what the implications are (in the eyes of the media and maybe the average NFL rube are concerned) for Cowher and Holmgren. If Holmgren wins it proves he can get it done without Brett Favre. If Cowher wins, it proves he can win the big one and it makes a statement about staying the course even when the average rube calls for the coach's head every week.

3.) Neither team is the Patriots and I don't have to hear what a genius Bill Belichick is. Enough said.

Lastly, when the game's finally over and the slate is wiped clean, there's always the hope the next year will be the year the Vikings won't break your heart. But more importantly, we're one day closer to the opening day of baseball season.

From Chris Brown - He is a Twins farm hand who spent 2005 with the Beloit Snappers. He was featured in a great Q&A here in November. The Florida native will report to minor league camp in Ft. Myers in early March with the hopes of a promotion to the Ft. Myers Miracle. 

I love the Seattle Seahawks. As weak as everyone claims the NFC is this is not one of those teams. Shawn Alexander will be effective against the Pittsburgh 3-4 defense mainly because there will not be enough pressure in the backfield to slow him down. Alexander torched a Carolina defense (which I believe is better than Pittsburgh's) that in it's 2 playoff games was only giving up 69 yards on the ground. Secondly, Seattle's run defense in the playoffs has been unbelievable. They have given up a measly 47 yards a game. If Bettis and Parker can't get it going on the ground you leave it up to a young and sometimes very inconsistent quarterback who hasn't proved he can win when he is forced to throw the ball. Anyway, what do I know I'm justa baseball player. I guess since the Bucs can't win it I'll have to settle for Seattle.

From Rita Maloney - She is a great friend of this site. She has had me as a guest on her radio show a number of times. We have now met on a couple of occasions. She works for WCCO-Radio in the Twins Cities. Her shows include Saturday and Sunday afternoon sports talk shows from 12-3. She works a lot with the Twins pregame shows including the Twins Magazine Show. She is also in her first year as the station's voice of the University of Minnesota's women's basketball team. And, she probably does a LOT more. I'd say where she is originally from, but I think you'll be able to tell.

Let me preface by saying this: being a Steelers fan is a sickness…a wonderful sickness.

If you cut me, I bleed Black and Gold.  And I make no excuses for it.

On Sundays during Steelers season, life stops at kick-off.  There is no shoveling, no laundry, no work out, no dog walking, no playing “Chutes and Ladders” with a 4 year old.  There is only football…Steelers football.  As if there is anything else.

This is the environment in which I was raised.  Sundays at 1pm (Eastern, that is) was a family affair; six kids, two parents, the dog and a collection of friends and neighbors, all planted in front of the console Television in my parents’ 10X10 living room.  Oh yeah, all dressed in Black and Gold.  Even the dog had a Steelers collar. 

Now, you may think this was unique to the Maloney family.  Not so.  This was unique to the entire City of Pittsburgh and the surrounding area.  Sure, some went to bars, others the Legion and still others who, although they had no tickets, were in the parking lots surrounding Three Rivers Stadium, tailgating and listening to the game on the radio or watching on some portable black and white TV complete with rabbit ears and tin foil.  And then, there were “The Chosen.”  The lucky 55,000 people who actually HAD tickets to the game.  A ticket to a Steelers game was more valuable than a winning lottery ticket.  I had a friend in college who traded his $200 winning Daily Number lottery ticket for one Standing Room Only ticket to a game versus the lowly Seahawks.

Which brings us to present day. 

Everything I described above is still a way of life on Steelers Sunday…especially this Steelers Sunday.  Time will still stop when the ball is kicked-off at Ford Field.  For a moment I’ll be 10 years old again in my parent’s living room, with my family, my dog and my Jack Lambert jersey worn proudly.  I’ll imagine looking outside on the front porch to marvel at the “GO STEELERS” sign my dad and I made the night before.  But in reality I’ll be in Minnesota with a gaggle of other transplanted Steelers fans, proudly sporting my Big Ben jersey, frosty mug in hand and marveling at the vast reach of Steelers Nation.  We are everywhere…from Maine to Arizona, Texas to Minnesota, Florida to, well…Seattle.  Steelers Nation is Nationwide.  We travel well.  We travel everywhere.  We travel in large throngs.  We bring friends and co-workers along for the wonderful ride and welcome any and all to join Steelers Nation. 

Consider this your invitation.  Because when the clock winds down to zero, I wouldn’t want you to be left out in the cold.  The Seattle cold, that is. 

From Jonathan Mayo - He is a great contributor to MLB.com (and MiLB.com) with his thoughts on Minor League baseball. He hosts a show on mlb.com radio Tuesdays and Fridays at 1:00 (central time) regarding minor league ball. He interviews prospects and answers questions. The show is called Around the Minors (with Mayo). He also writs a blog with the same name. 

Since I live in the Iron City, it's hard for me to pick against the Steelers. Granted, I'm rather new to the Burgh (4 1/2 years or so), but it's hard not to jump on the bandwagon here...The obvious key will be if the Steelers defense can corral Shaun Alexander because I have little doubt about the D's ability to wreak havoc on the Seahawks passing game. The Hawks' defense is underrated, but I think the Steelers have the most underrated offense in the NFL. Everyone talks about the defense, deservedly so, but now that there's a better mix of run and pass, and Big Ben continues to mature, it's hard for any defense to be sure of what's coming next. Bias or no, I think the Steelers win this one 27-20.

From Mike Boehm - the author of the Baltimore Orioles blog called Oriole Magic. Yesterday, he posted a great article regarding my projections for the Orioles hitters in 2006. 

As a Baltimorian and proud Ravens fan, my ability to judge this game on it's merits alone are clouded by a blinding hatred of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'm all Seahawks this Sunday so my large array of jokes about Steelers fans holding onto memories of the 1970's will remain valid."

From Kevin Slowey - He was the Twins 2nd round pick out of Winthrop in 2005. He entered pro ball and completely dominated the Appalachian League and then the Midwest League. Kevin is a very good guy who participated in this site's NFL "Expert" Picks, even though it didn't go so well for him, and answered questions for a Q&A for the site in October. Kevin will report to Ft. Myers in early March and has a good chance to start the season with the Ft. Myers Miracle. Because of his great control, he could move swiftly up the Twins ladder. 

Well, although my "NFL expert picks" team came in dead last, my real football team will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl this Sunday in Detroit. Lets just be honest, nobody really expected the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl, but a string of road wins paved the way. No, I do not think Big Ben is better than Peyton Manning, or Jerome Bettis is better than Shaun Alexander, but I do think Troy Polamalu is way sweeter than you. And the playoffs so far haven't been about the "better" team, its been about the team that makes the fewest mistakes ( i.e. Broncos v Pats, Steelers v Colts).
 

The Steelers have played near flawless football (minus the Bettis fumble) all postseason, and you can expect to see a lot of the same come Sunday. Seattle is a good team, but they haven't played on the road in a month, and they haven't seen a defense like the Steelers all year, and thats just too much to overcome.

Prediction: Coach Bill Cowher leads the Men of Steel to a Super Bowl Victory 31-17

From Al Bethke - he writes the blog Al's Ramblings. It is mainly a site following the Milwaukee Brewers, but he does also branch into other areas. He definitely will admit that football is not one of his passions.

I will be watching the Super Bowl for the commercials, so I'm probably not the most trustworthy person to ask. That said, I expect the Steelers to win, as well as cover the spread. I must admit, I do enjoy watching Jerome Bettis, a guy built a lot like me, still be an effective running back.

From Trevor Born - He is The Twins Junkie. I met him at the State Fair this past summer when we were both, along with the Twins Geek, on-air on the WCCO stage. Trevor won the NFL "Expert" Picks in his first season of making predictions with us.

If this were the Pick 'em contest I would pick Pittsburgh because it the safe and theoretically logical bet, but since this is not a contest I have to say my gut feeling is the Seattle Seahawks. I'll of course be rooting for them because they are from the NFC and are under-hyped. Also, the only reason the spread is 4 points (I think) in favor of Pittsburgh is because of the huge influx of betters who just like the Steelers. They are much more of America's team than the Seahawks. Everything about them screams underrated, not the least of which being 4 point underdogs while being the #1 seed in the NFC. I like Shaun Alexander, don't mind Matt Hasslbeck (even the whole "we want the ball and we're gonna score" debacle), and respect Mike Holmgren as a coach. So my definitive answer (especially if you're betting against the spread) would be the Seahawks.

From Will Young - Will is an excellent Twins blogger. One of his projects is updating the Organizational Big Board. He too was a member of the NFL "Expert" Picks this year. Will goes to grad school at George Washington University in Washington DC and has worked in their athletic department. 

Let's see, predictions for the big game on Sunday. Well, I expect Richmond to hang with the Colonials for about ten minutes trying to lull them to sleep. However, GW's size, speed and depth will overwhelm the Spiders and lead to an easy blow-out victory. As for the other game, the Seahawks will win causing much confusion in my family as we attempt to decide how best to broach the subject with our cousin. After all, he worked for Seattle for the past seven seasons before quitting his job last Spring to get married and return home to Omaha. Needless to say, he walked away from a nice bonus.

From Brent Hanson - The author of BrentNet was a member of the NFL "Expert" Panels. His blog covers all kinds of topics from baseball and other sports, to music, movies, politics and much more. 

From Bill Ferris - Bill is rather busy. Being from Detroit, earlier in the week, he was greeting media members as they arrived at the airport for the game. Bill writes a couple of great blogs. He writes about the Tigers at The Detroit Tigers Weblog. He also writes a helpful site for Baseball Bloggers at Baseblogging.net.  

Being from Detroit, I have been immersed in the Super Bowl for the better part of a year. One would think I would have strong opinions about the outcome. However, like many of my fellow Detroiters I've pretty much overlooked the game itself while I've focused on what others are saying about my hometown. While the popular pick is Jerome Bettis, er uh the Steelers I'm going with Seattle. I actually don't think the Seahawks will have any problem with Steelers provided Shaun Alexander doesn't go down on the first series. Seattle 27, Pittsburgh 20.

From Stick & Ball Guy - author of The World's Greatest Online Magazine!

Pittsburgh

 

To be honest, I don't really have a good feeling about this game.  I have no idea.  I like Seattle's running game and Hasselbeck seems to be as good of a quarterback as Rothliesberger, but Big Ben has been very good in the playoffs.  The Steelers have beaten far better teams on their way to the SBXL.  The Seahawks have Shaun Alexander but how well will he play?  I'm suspecting that the Pitt D will contain Mr. Alexander.  And that's why I'm taking Pittsburgh.

From Nick Nelson - One of the Nick's who writes Nick & Nick's Twins Blog. 

It's been commented on before, but this year's Super Bowl just doesn't seem to carry the same amount of excitement and prestige as have ones in the past. It's not that the teams are bad, or - despite what a blowhard Skip Bayless says - that there is a lack of star power. I mean, come on, we have the NFL MVP on one team and a quarterback one year removed from winning a Rookie of the Year award on the other, not to mention several Pro Bowlers on both squads. The problem, I suppose, is that neither team has a great storyline. There can be no no Terrell Owens comeback, no Tom Brady/Joe Montana comparisons, and no dynasty talk. The media was probably thanking the heavens when Seahawks TE Jerramy Stevens made an off-hand remark earlier this week saying he believes his team will win. This was, of course, quickly blown out of proportion in a vain attempt to draw interest to a game that is struggling to intrigue even some hardcore football fans. Trash-talking aside, Pittsburgh is the better team, and they are going to win this game. And it is not going to be particularly exciting. My prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Seattle 13.

From Jay Maxwell - writer of Black Sox Blog

Although the Seahawks were a favorite team of mine in the 1980s, I'm going to have to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  In the Super Bowl, you don't see a ton of penalties called, so a more aggressive defense like the Steelers have will be a huge plus.  I also think they have the more complete team, and Jerome Bettis playing in front of a hometown crowd is a great story.

From Pat Neshek - Twins minor league closer. After an excellent 2005 season at New Britain, he was added to the Twins 40 man roster and will be reporting to spring training February 20th with the rest of the big league roster. Pat also writes the excellent blog On the Road with Pat Neshek, where he gives us a first hand account of life in baseball. 

Well I haven't been following the NFL at all but the one game I will be watching this year is coming up in two days.  I've always been an underdog and like seeing the little guy win so I want Seattle to win because they use to suck when I was growing up.   That's pretty much all I can really say about football .

From Jeff Kuhn - writer of The House that Dewey Built

Every season on the eve of the playoffs, I lay down $20 on the futures of five teams.  The three non-favored bye teams (Seattle, Chicago, and Denver this year), another division winner (New England) and a long-shot (Carolina). 

I was pumped when Pittsburgh beat Indy.  Money in my pocket!  I’m now less pumped now that the 37-1 Panthers were beat by Seattle, and everyone and their brothers are driving Steeler bandwagons.

My pockets cry at this game…

The premium matchup for this year’s Uber Bowl, we have the Steelers’ blitz happy, run smashing defense (I refuse to call it Blitzberg) against the excitingly balanced Seattle offense.  The key for the Seahawks to move the ball against the Steelers' defense is to neutralize Troy Palamalu.  This is a risky proposition, because the best way to do this is with a 3WR set that leaves Hasselbeck more vulnerable to blitzing Pittsburgh loves so good.  Of course, the converse is that if Pittsburgh comes with heavy outside pressure, and the middle opens up a bit for Shaun Alexander.  Considering the Seahawks did a decent job against equally strong Carolina and Washington defenses, mostly by running a disciplined offense, I would actually give them a pretty good chance to move the ball a little bit against the Steelers.

The Steelers have one of the most conservative offenses in football, which is actually a problem for the Pittsburgh squad.  Their running game is more an illusion of quantity rather than quality, and because of Bill Cowher’s inability or unwillingness to really diversify, the Steelers best chance to win would be letting Roethlisberger throw the ball 30 times.  The Seattle front seven does a very good job at both stopping the run and rushing the quarterback, but the Seattle secondary is vulnerable.  This, of course, would mean that Cowher would have to basically revamp his script.

Barring things like Jeremy Stevens getting into a helmet fight with Joey Porter, I doubt this Super Bowl will be one for the ages.  Pittsburgh had a schizophrenic season, topped off by a Cinderella run through the playoffs, and Seattle was the best team in a bad conference, and neither team has an “Oh boy!  The <blank> are on this Monday night!” appeal.  If the Seahawks get a quick, early lead, and Hasselbeck doesn’t get von Oelhoffened out of the game, I don’t think the Steelers are equipped to come back.  However, if the Steelers put up some early points, I’m not convinced that the Seahawks won’t be able to come back given the Steeler reluctance to throw the ball with the lead.

Seattle 28, Pittsburgh 17

So there you have it, plenty of 'expert' opinion on what will happen on Sunday night when the Steelers and Seahawks FINALLY play the actually Super Bowl game. If you have any thoughts on what will happen, feel free to post your comments below and we'll be able to check back on them after the game on Sunday!

OTHER STUFF

• John Sickels' Minor League site has a couple of interesting Twins discussions. First, John compares and contrasts 2004 first-round shortstops, the Twins Trevor Plouffe and the Rockies Chris Nelson. Second, someone posted a diary asking about the future of Francisco Liriano in comparison to other top pitching prospects. There are some good comments in each.

• FoxSports.com's Dayn Perry continues his look at the Top 100 Prospects in baseball with numbers 51-60 where another Twins player makes hit appearance. I won't give away the name, but it probably won't surprise you at all when you read it. He joins Alex Romero (#80) and Boof Bonser (#89) as Twins on his list so far.      

And on that note, I wish you a great day and a week. If you have any questions or comments on anything you have read above, please e-mail me. Have yourself a great week!