Monday,
February 1, 2010
Nine Innings with
Seth
The Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect
Handbook is complete. The TwinsCentric/Maple
Street Press Twins 2010 Annual is complete. The FoxSports/Scout.com
magazine is complete. Twins Fest is complete. A break may be necessary, but
instead, I thought it would be good to go another nine innings with Seth:
First Inning – What’s Going
on with Joe?
OK, so my January 29th
prediction proved untrue. I’m OK with that. But on Monday afternoon, WCCO’s
Mark Rosen got Twins fans attention by saying that he has a source that
says that Twins and Mauer have reached a preliminary
agreement on a ten year contract. Since then, Twins fans got incredibly
excited, national writers like Buster
Olney and Jon Heyman
tried to discredit the rumor, Twins fans got frustrated, an
d the story kind of went away.
So what do we make of all
this? I don’t know.
Oh, you were hoping for
something a little more than that? Alright, I’ll venture a guess. And please,
remember this, it is just my guess.
·
Mark Rosen has a
lot of local sources. He has been apologist and supporter for years. My guess
is that he has a source close to Joe Mauer that has been able to give him something. Let’s
not forget that the ten year story is not news. Rosen himself mentioned that on
a newscast about a month ago. The story is the “agreed in principal” portion. Mark Rosen is pretty credible locally,
so I tend to believe he would not comment on this if he didn’t have something
pretty solid.
·
Buster Olney
is a Yankees guy for ESPN. He’s trying to make a bigger story. SI.com’s Jon Heyman has proven quite a bit of credibility in the
last couple of years, but he has been anything but a Twins person going all the
way back to some ridiculous articles a couple of years again, including about Johan Santana. These guys have some
contacts, no question.
·
The Twins front
office won’t say anything until something if finalized.
·
Robert Shapiro,
Mauer’s agent, is not going to leak anything.
·
Joe Mauer isn’t exactly going to talk.
·
But again, I
believe that Mark Rosen has
something credible. He isn’t going to put himself and his reputation on the
line. Remember, he was the first to note that the Vikings had signed Brett Favre long before it actually
happened. He never said Mauer had signed. He didn’t
say that the deal was finalized. Think about the small print and the minute
details necessary in a contract that includes incentives, potential opt-outs,
no-trade clauses, deferred money and more. That would take a week or four of
lawyer time.
·
I believe that
the deal will be announced before spring training.
·
In the end, I
don’t care if it’s eight years or ten years. If ten years, I am going to stand
behind my $185 million projection. If it’s eight years, I would project $160
million.
·
The Twins need to
resign Mauer. They need to for reasons beyond the
baseball field. However, Twins fans need to understand that this contract
(whatever is may become) is incredibly risky. A ten year contract extension
would make him 37 years old when it expires. Can Mauer
remain this good throughout the next ten years? $18-20 million worth of good
for ten more years?
Second Inning – Will O-Dawg
Crush the Nats?
Over
the weekend at MLB Trade Rumors, it was reported that Orlando Hudson was still asking for $9 million a year, but the
Washington Nationals were only offering him $3 million. Yesterday, it came out
that the Rockies were now out of the running for both Hudson and Felipe Lopez. The Twins were mentioned
as a team that would have some interest. Well, if the cost for one year of Orlando Hudson comes anywhere near $3
million, they should be. The Twins were apparently willing to offer Jarrod
Washburn $5 million. Imagine signing Jim
Thome and Orlando
Hudson (two players actually able to contribute positively) for about the
same price.
In
general, the market is so slow, the contracts are so low. It is a good time to
have a little extra money available. Twins fans should be happy they haven’t
signed anyone yet because over the next two weeks, they should be active and
maybe even sign a player at a huge discount. Hudson makes too much sense, and
if that means going a million over budget, that works of me.
Third Inning – Twins Lose Tolleson
to Take on Thome
I
was thinking that maybe a trade was in the works. When the Twins announced that
they had agreed to terms with Jim Thome last week, immediately I started wondering who would
be removed from the 40 man roster. Would Glen
Perkins be dealt? How about Alexi Casilla? Well, once no one was traded, there was really
no choice in who the Twins would remove from the 40 man roster. The question
became, would Steve Tolleson
be claimed by another team? Well, on Monday, the utility player was claimed by
the Oakland A’s. Here is what I wrote about Tolleson
in the Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook:
Steven Tolleson – IF –
(11/1/83)
Acquired: 5th round pick in 2005 from U. of
South Carolina
2009 Team(s): New Britain Rockcats,
Rochester Red Wings
2009 Stats: .266/.340/.380, 27-2B, 3-3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI
Following the 2008 season, the Twins added Steve Tolleson to their 40-man roster. Despite lingering injuries
in the second half of the season, including a bad finger, Tolleson
had hit .300/.382/.466 with 28 doubles and nine home runs for New Britain, in
just 93 games. He went to Twins spring training in 2009, but he was slowed by
injury and didn’t see much time. Because of that, he began 2009 back in New
Britain where he got off to a horrible start. In April, he hit just
.172/.238/.207 with just two doubles. But by May, he heated up and hit
.310/.408/.506 with 11 extra base hits. He was promoted to Rochester and in
June he hit .310, but his monthly batting averages after that month were
.271/.250/.133, and his OPS fell from .806, to .753, to .647, to .345.
Tolleson stands close to the plate and has a very short, quick
swing. That does make it difficult to know how to pitch him. He has a very good
eye at the plate. He is a good contact hitter who generally hits the ball on
the ground or line drives. Defensively, he is solid, but certainly
unspectacular. He has limited range and arm, but he makes almost all of the
routine plays. He played shortstop at South Carolina, and played mainly the
middle infield spots earlier in his career. He spent some time at third base in
2006. He got a little bit of time in centerfield in 2008. In 2009, he played
primarily shortstop at New Britain, but when promoted to Rochester, he played
everywhere. He played all three outfield positions. He played three infield
positions as well. He mostly played second base and left field, but it appears
now that we can officially put Tolleson into the
utility player listing. Also worth noting is that his father, Wayne Tolleson, played a utility infielder role for the Texas
Rangers, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees during the 1980s.
Fourth Inning – Why Won’t Washburn’s Name Just Go
Away?
Because
there is a pretty good chance that he ends up with the Twins, I fear. A couple
of front office guys really like him. There is no question that Washburn wants
to be with the Twins. The Mets are allegedly out of the running, and the
Mariners likely don’t want him back. The Twins are likely competing against
nobody. I can totally see him signing a low-base, high-incentive contract. The
reality is that you can never have enough pitching. The Twins have nine options
for five rotation spots already, and in reality, they have five options for
just one rotation spot, so I just question the need for Washburn. But I know a
couple of people (that matter) really think he can bring something to the team.
Comments for first four innings.
Fifth Inning – We’re #5! We’re #5! We’re #5!
So,
one of the big topics over the weekend was what the Twins would do with their
fifth starter spot. The first four spots in the rotation are expected to be
filled by Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey
and Carl Pavano.
Why is it even a topic? After the conclusion of the 2009 season, in my mind at
least, the answer was easy. Brian Duensing’s performance over the season’s final six to
eight weeks earned him the right to have the first shot at the fifth starter
job. However, Francisco Liriano’s performance in the Dominican Winter League
playoffs certainly has people excited. It’s not just the completely dominant
numbers. It’s not even the reports of the 95 mph fastball and a 88 mph slider. The excitement seems to be from a focused,
and in shape, Francisco Liriano. The excitement comes from the sharpness of
that slider. The excitement comes from Liriano’s lack
of walks and control inside the strike zone.
Obviously
the big question will be answered through spring training. Brian Duensing deserves the shot. I think
we all agree with that. Nothing in his AAA numbers indicates that he will be
able to sustain that kind of success, but I think most of us think that he can
be a serviceable fifth starter. With Liriano, there
is no question about the stuff anymore. The concerns with him are all between
the ears. How confident will he be? How much does he even want it? How
frustrating have the last two years been for him, not able to do what he did in
2006 before surgery? If he can bring that aspect of the game together, Francisco Liriano
can still be an All-Star caliber starting pitcher. Will he ever get back to his
2006 level of dominance? Unlikely, but you never know. But again, with his
stuff, he can still be an ace. In my mind, Liriano is
the wild card, the X-factor in how far the Twins are able to go in 2010.
But
don’t forget that the Twins have other options, even before reaching to someone
like Jarrod Washburn. Glen Perkins is still around. Most can’t
imagine a scenario in which he comes back, but he is a lefty who throws fairly
hard and has three big league pitches, so he shouldn’t be 1.) forgotten, or 2.) given away. Anthony Swarzak
came up in the middle of the season and pitched well for a few weeks. Jeff Manship
came up to help an over-worked bullpen in August and got the opportunity to
make a few starts. He picked up his first big league win in that final weekend
series against the Royals. Both of them will likely begin at Rochester, but
both could be ready if called upon to either start or pitch some long relief
for the Twins.
Sixth Inning – Podcast Updates
SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota
Twins Podcast – (Tonight at 9:00
central time) – I’m really excited for tonight’s show. Last week’s show was
really fun, with five guests, including four players. This week, we go back to
one hour, but the guests continue. Last Tuesday night, Denard Span and Jeff Manship were involved in the Twins Caravan and signing
autographs through our show, but both of them were kind enough to re-schedule
for this week. Also, there is a chance that Max Kepler will be joining the show
tonight as well, which is pretty exciting. If he is unable to join, we’ll open
up the phone lines and take your questions or comments for the remainder of the
show. Remember the chat room will be open throughout the entire show, and I
will ask Denard, Jeff or Max any questions that you
would like while we have time. I’m excited. It should be a fun show, so
hopefully you will be at to listen live. And if you can’t, please remember that
you can listen to the podcast later, or you can download it to iTunes.
Quick
reminder, you can still pre-order
the Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook for $12.95 through the
conclusion of the podcast. At that point, it will be available for $13.95.
Also,
be sure to listen in to last
night’s Travis Talks Minnesota Sports podcast. It was a good show. His first
guest was Larry from SouthSideSox.com,
a White Sox blog, and they had a good discussion on the White Sox in 2010. Then
Nick Nelson of Nick’s Twins Blog
joined the podcast to talk about all of the Twins topics of the day.
Of
course, on Wednesday night at 9, you’ll want to tune in to Fanatic Jack’s Twins
Talk podcast!
Seventh Inning – Twins Fest Updates
Here
are some other Twins blogs related to Twins Fest experiences that you may
enjoy:
·
Those
Girls handed out their 2010 Twins Fest Awards. You’ll want to check out all the winners!
·
Andrew from Off
the Mark posted his Twins Fest Experience.
·
Be sure to check
out the Twins
Geek account of Day 2 of Twins Fest. Particularly note his awkward
conversation with Topper Anton of Curve for a Strike. It
makes me laugh. Here are his
Day 1 thoughts.
·
K-Bro, of K-Bro’s
Baseball Blog, posted her
Twins Fest experiences.
·
A
Voice from Twins Territory – Twins
Fest Part 1. Twins
Fest Part 2.
·
For
the Love of the Game posted her
stories from Twins Fest.
·
Katie from KC’s Baseball Blog chimes in
with her Twins
Fest Edition.
If
there are any that I am missing, please let me know.
Eighth Inning – Twins Links
Here
are some other Twins blog links:
·
Aaron Gleeman started his Top 40 Twins prospect list yesterday with
his
selections for 36-40, only to see his choice for #37 (Tolleson) get claimed by another team. Today, he’s got his
choices for 31-35. (They’ll all still be with the organization
tomorrow!)
·
Here are Granny Baseball’s
thoughts on Joe Crede.
·
Howard Sinker posted on
several topics from Nick Punto, to Joe Mauer and more at Section
219.
·
Alright Hamilton
has an Essay
Contest: Orlando Hudson or Joe Mauer. Check
it out and participate.
·
February 12th
is officially Nick
Punto Day. This is the brain child of Andrew Kneeland
of Twins
Target who rightfully says that Punto is a
very polarizing character among Twins fans. So on February 12th,
participating bloggers will all write their thoughts on the Twins infielder.
·
And I’ll just
say, be sure to check out the Twins MVB. He’s got a ton of stuff going on
at his site that you’ll want to check out. He was also the feature of Curve
for a Strike’s Twins Blogger: Get to Know ‘Em
last week.
·
Josh
Johnson is up to Twins
Prospect #21 in his countdown of the Top 50 Twins Prospects.
·
The Twinkie
Town Top 50 Prospect rankings are complete. Check it out and weigh in
on who you think is missing, who is ranked too high or too low.
·
And while you’re
there, be sure to check out Roger’s
Weekly Twins Minor League Update.
·
Nick Nelson talks about the False
Alarm, but Very Real Hope regarding the events from yesterday.
·
Twinkie Talk mentions the Biggest
News You Heard yesterday.
·
Undomed takes
a retrospective
look at 2006.
·
Check out the Over
The Baggy Twins Notes.
Ninth Inning – TwinsCentric
Gathering
I can’t really think of a
ninth inning topic right now, so I thought I would just mention that the TwinsCentric group – John Bonnes (Twins Geek), Nick Nelson (Nick’s Twins Blog) and Parker Hageman (Over The Baggy) and I – are
going to be hosting some get-togethers for bloggers and Twins fans. The first
will likely be on a Saturday afternoon in March, sometime when the Twins have a
spring training game that we can all watch together while talking about our
favorite team. So, be sure to pre-order
your copy of the TwinsCentric/Maple Street Press
Twins 2010 Annual, and meet us all there. Obviously as we obtain more
specific details, they will be posted at our sites.
Alright, nine innings with
Seth is complete. Please check out the SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota
Twins Podcast tonight at 9, and have a great day! If you have any
questions or comments, please feel free to e-mail me or leave them in the Comments
section.