Tuesday, January 16, 2007 (Part 2)
And, the Numbers are in...
And the results are going to cost the Twins a lot of money!
Not too long ago, the official arbitration numbers came out. In my perspective, there really weren't any surprises. We knew that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau would get big raises and their agents would ask for big numbers through arbitration. Michael Cuddyer, Nick Punto, Juan Rincon and Lew Ford were also going to request and get big raises via arbitration.
How big? That was the question. And now, we have a much better indication of how much these players will make and consequently, how the Twins payroll will be affected.
Before I get into the specifics, let me just backtrack for a minute and explain what we know.
Players with three years of Major League time (or Super-2s) are eligible for arbitration.
After the season, the Twins had to decide whether to offer arbitration to the players who met that criteria.
Today, the Twins made their official offer to the players.
The player's agent makes their official request for how much their player should make.
So, what were the offers and requests for the Twins six arbitration-eligible players:
Player Twins Offer Player Request
Justin Morneau $ 4 million $ 5 million
Joe Mauer $ 3.3 million $ 4.5 million
Michael Cuddyer $ 3 million $ 4.25 million
Nick Punto $ 1.6 million $ 2.1 million
Juan Rincon $ 1.6 million $ 2.4 million
Lew Ford $ 800,000 $ 1.3 million
So, what is next? Well, there are several things that happen. here are the most common.
It is a starting point in an attempt to negotiate a long-term contract
The most typical situation is that the two sides meet right in the middle.
It is becoming more rare, but if an agreement can not be reached, a three judge panel will determine which of the two numbers will be the player's salary for 2007.
So, since I've been projecting everything else lately, I thought it would be fun to predict what will happen in these six cases:
Justin Morneau - I think that the goal would be to sign the AL MVP to a long-term deal. If they are able to agree on a four or five year contract, he would likely make $4 million in 2007 and much more in subsequent years. If they can't agree to a deal, I think that they will settle at $4.5 million, and I hope they can work a five year deal.
Joe Mauer - Again, the goal would be a long-term deal, and if they can do that, his 2007 contract would likely be at $3.3 million. It is possible that they could meet in the middle ($3.9 million), but don't forget that Mauer has not given a hometown discount in the past. I can see this one going to arbitration, and if it does, I think that Mauer would win. I'm hoping for a five year deal!
Michael Cuddyer - Cuddyer is in his second year of arbitration. Last year, he made $1.35 million (a midpoint, I believe). Then he had a very good year. I would like to see the Twins sign him to a long term deal, probably three years. These numbers are actually lower than I thought they would be. I think that they will sign a three year deal and he will make just over $3 million in 2007.
Nick Punto - Punto is also in his second year of arbitration. Last year, he reached a mid-point deal at $690,000. A solid season has increased his value significantly. There is no reason to consider a long-term deal with a utility infielder (hey, if he wasn't, they wouldn't talk about even contemplating acquiring a 3B). Also, the difference in the two numbers is pretty small, so a mid-point agreement ($1.85 million) seems to make sense. His agent isn't Scott Boras who goes to arbitration over even less. (Note - that was a Kyle Lohse joke as he went to arbitration the last two years. Ironically, he and the Reds agreed to a deal yesterday for $4.2 million.)
Juan Rincon - Two years ago, the Twins signed Rincon to a two year deal. I believe that saved them from one year of arbitration. Unfortunately for Rincon, he wasn't as good in 2006 as he had been in previous years. Fortunately for Rincon, relievers are getting crazy dollar values. Think about what Scott Schoenweiss just signed for with the Mets. I fear that if this went to arbitration, Rincon would win, so the Twins should hope for a mid-point agreement. I think he will get a $2.1 million deal.
Lew Ford - Ford's remarkable 2004 season makes it likely that in arbitration he would win. The fact that his roster spot is not exactly set in stone gives the Twins some leverage. I think that we'll see a one year, $1 million deal.
So there is the update. It will be very interesting to see what will happen in the next month. What do you think of the numbers and projections. Send me an e-mail or leave me a Comment.
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Tues
day, January 16, 2007It's just about midnight and I just got home from the cites. So, not going to get a lot from me today. But, I will be back with a new blog entry tomorrow. A while ago, I posted my thoughts on an NBC show called The Book of Daniel. It was a very controversial show and only 3 or 4 episodes actually were aired. Well, this weekend I watched the entire series including the missing episodes. Incredible! That is as good of TV as I have ever watched. I want to write to Aiden Quinn and find out what was going to happen next! The Twins Caravan started yesterday with two groups leaving the cities. There was a group headed to Northern Minnesota and one to Northwest Minnesota and into North Dakota. It has been such a mild winter, so I'm sure the players are happy that it is now about -10 degrees outside. I know when I walked in my house tonight, it was just 57 degrees in my house! Not good. Oh well. Finally, there was quite a milestone in my life this yesterday.
Ah, the life of a blogger is extravagant, isn't it?! That 1996 Saturn is pretty tough!
On that note, please be sure to check back tomorrow. There will be a new posting. For now, be sure to check out the rest of those great Twins blogs over on the left. I believe that the players and the GMs will be exchanging arbitration dollars today, so that should be fun!
Have a great day, and if there is anything you would like to discuss, please feel free to leave some Comments, or send me an e-mail.