Friday

Friday, January 12, 2006

SethSpeaks 2007 Twins

Pitcher Projections

Good morning everyone! (for today's posting, I have some tables that get a little wide, so you will likely have to scroll to the left and right to see the whole thing. I apologize for this, but didn't see any way around it at this time. Thanks for understanding.)

Yesterday, you saw my projections for the Twins hitters in 2007. Today, I am posting my pitcher's predictions. This is very difficult to do because injury risk with pitchers is higher. Also, trying to project Wins and Losses is all but impossible because it has nothing to do with how well a pitcher pitches. But, it is still fun to look at this. I would love to hear your comments on these projections, so e-mail me or leave some Comments below.

TWINS 2007 PITCHERS PROJECTIONS

I will also follow my projections with just a few thoughts:

Pos	Age*	Name	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	ERA	WHIP	BAA	K/BB	K/9	BB/9
SP	28	Johan Santana	34	34	2	1	238.7	174	76	70	19	47	258	23	6	0	2.64	0.93	0.243	5.49	9.73	1.77
SP	25	Boof Bonser	32	32	1	0	179.3	178	94	84	31	57	141	13	10	0	4.22	1.31	0.331	2.47	7.08	2.86
SP	27	Carlos Silva	33	33	3	1	201.3	264	111	102	36	33	92	12	12	0	4.56	1.48	0.437	2.79	4.11	1.48
SP	23	Matt Garza	23	23	1	1	131.7	126	68	58	16	39	124	11	5	0	3.96	1.25	0.319	3.18	8.48	2.67
SP	25	Scott Baker	31	31	1	0	185.3	184	93	85	27	41	142	14	9	0	4.13	1.21	0.331	3.46	6.90	1.99
P	24	Glen Perkins	28	2	0	0	42.7	43	21	18	4	16	46	3	3	0	3.80	1.38	0.336	2.88	9.70	3.38
SP	30	Sidney Ponson	7	7	0	0	34.0	46	34	25	8	16	22	1	4	0	6.62	1.82	0.451	1.38	5.82	4.24
CL	32	Joe Nathan	70	0	0	0	69.7	45	19	17	4	21	88	4	2	44	2.20	0.95	0.215	4.19	11.37	2.71
RP	28	Juan Rincon	64	0	0	0	66.7	65	33	28	6	26	60	2	5	0	3.78	1.37	0.325	2.31	8.10	3.51
RP	25	Jesse Crain	77	0	0	0	78.7	69	28	24	4	20	68	3	2	4	2.75	1.13	0.292	3.40	7.78	2.29
RP	26	Pat Neshek	73	0	0	0	75.7	57	25	22	9	19	93	4	2	3	2.62	1.00	0.251	4.89	11.06	2.26
RP	28	Matt Guerrier	54	0	0	0	65.7	61	39	32	6	20	43	2	3	0	4.39	1.23	0.310	2.15	5.89	2.74
RP	29	Dennys Reyes	58	0	0	0	45.3	44	22	20	4	22	39	2	1	0	3.97	1.46	0.324	1.77	7.74	4.37
RP	25	JD Durbin	34	0	0	0	37.0	36	23	20	5	17	33	3	1	1	4.86	1.43	0.324	1.94	8.03	4.14
RP	26	Ricky Barrett	3	0	0	0	3.3	3	3	3	0	3	2	0	0	0	8.10	1.80	0.300	0.67	5.40	8.10
RP	22	Kevin Slowey	2	0	0	0	3.0	2	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3.00	0.67	0.222	#DIV/0!	6.00	0.00

	26.4	Totals	623	162	8	3	1,458.0	1397	690	609	179	397	1253	97	65	52	3.76	1.23	0.319	3.16	7.73	2.45

SUMMARY

As you can see, I am projecting that:

First, I need to point out that the last columns I filled in were Wins and Losses. Those are absolutely impossible to predict because it has nothing to do with how well a pitcher pitches.
However, with the 690 runs allowed and the 848 runs scored that I projected yesterday, the Pythagorean W-L for the Twins is 97-65. So, that is why I have made sure that the overall records in this projection adds up to that.
Johan Santana will post arguably his best season to date, making it even more difficult for the Twins to get him signed long-term.
Boof Bonser will likely remain in the rotation the whole year. He was amazing down the stretch and really deserves this spot. I think that he has the ability to be a solid #3 or #4 starter so I put him at very league average type numbers. He is able to post good strikeout numbers as well.
Carlos Silva will pitch just well enough to make his starts this year. Because of his low pitch count, I do think that he can provide 200+ innings, and if he does, picking up his option was well worth it. Still a lot of hits allowed!
I think that Sidney Ponson will be given a real opportunity to make the Opening Day roster, and I think he will. And I think he will be awful. I do think that because the 5th started likely won't need to be used a lot in the first month, I think that the team will be patient with him and allow him to last just into June.
At that time, Matt Garza will have tuned up and be in the rotation the rest of the way. In his time, he will pitch at an above average level, recording a lot of strikeouts.
I believe that Scott Baker will start the season in the rotation. It will be touted as his last chance. At some point, you have to believe that his minor league performance (in AAA) will start to show itself at the big league level. He absolutely dominates AAA. That is why I think he will make all of his starts and come through with a very good season.
You will notice that there is no Mike Venafro, no Randy Choate and no Carmen Cali. The reason is that I just don't think any of them would justify a roster spot over any of the right-handed options. I believe that they will just be insurance at AAA in case Dennys Reyes turns back into Dennys Reyes.
Speaking of Reyes, there is absolutely no way he can duplicate his 2006 performance and no one could expect it. I mean, a 0.90 ERA!? His number will drop and probably fairly significantly. Yet, as much as they drop, what I have projected would probably rank as his second best season of his career.
Joe Nathan will again be one of the best closers in baseball. Because of the team's increased wins (and close wins), his Saves numbers could be very high. Excellent WHIP, ERA, K-rate and more. He just continues to be great!
Juan Rincon sees another statistical drop off and will again end up behind both Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek who each put together great seasons. Neshek's K-Rate remains amazing, and Crain's continues to go up as well.
Matt Guerrier continues to move up the bullpen ladder. He will get a few more innings, and more tight situation innings. I think that he will be fine although not as good as the last two years, and I also think that he will find a way to get his second Win.
JD Durbin must make the team or be lost to waivers. I see him taking that Willie Eyre, final guy in the bullpen spot to start the season. I would really like to see him stay healthy and pitch well in his chances. Who knows, maybe he makes a start or two. Or, maybe he can dominate out of the bullpen. He has a lot of talent!
And finally, I think that Ricky Barrett will get a September recall. Also, I think that Kevin Slowey will be seen at that time. I think that he will have another great minor league season, but the Twins starters will perform better than anticipated so they can be patient with Slowey.
97-65 is pretty impressive, huh? But is it realistic? But will that put them in the playoffs again? You have to assume that the Tigers will be very good again, and that the Indians will have that breakout season we thought they would last year. So, it could be an interesting season in the AL Central.

So, do you have any thoughts on these projections? Am I overestimating some players potential? Can the young pitchers really pitch this well? Am I undervaluing other players? Who will get a shot? Who will the team get rid of? Can the Twins win 97 games, and even if they do, will that put them in the playoffs, or will they fall short?

Please feel free to leave some Comments on your thoughts. If nothing else, we can look back to this page in July and then in September and see how we all did. That's always fun. If you would like to send me some file of your projections, please e-mail it to me, and I'll be happy to keep it next to mine so we can look at it later in the year.

Have yourself a wonderful weekend, and we'll be back on Monday!