Friday January 9, 2004
 

MORE TWINS PROSPECTS RATINGS

OTHER BASEBALL GOINGS ON

NFL “EXPERT” PLAYOFF PICKS

GLEEMAN’S GUESTS

WOLVES WIN AGAIN

GOPHERS BASKETBALL

2003 TWINS ROOKIE CARDS

Well, yesterday I took a day off and only wrote a few notes. Today, I think I more than make up for it. I hope you enjoy it. There is plenty of baseball information. The beginning is primarily Twins and Twins prospect information, but there are a number of other transactions and topics related to baseball covered below, so check them out. There is also some basketball discussion. And as always, if you have any questions or comments, e-mail me.

I have written in the past about baseball cards. I have also written about how I love talking about minor leaguers, prospects and rookies. What is the common ground? Of course, I am a big fan of Rookie Cards.

I have been subscribing to Beckett Baseball Card Monthly since December of 1988. For the past five years, they have added a Rookie Card Rolodex. The newest issue (Feb. 2004) contains the 2003 Rookie rolodex; information on all 433 players whose rookie cards came out in 2003! Now, if you go back to the previous paragraph and add that my favorite team is the Twins, what better for me to discuss than the 2003 Minnesota Twins rookie cards. If you’re interested in collecting Twins baseball cards, and want rookies, check out this list!

In all, 21 players in the Twins organization had their first showings on a major league baseball card in 2003. You won’t find the likes of Joe Mauer (2002), Justin Morneau (2001), Michael Cuddyer (1998) or Michael Restovich (1999) on this list, however, because they had minor league cards in previous years.

Beckett does some analysis on each player. They discuss where the player was drafted or signed out of, how they did in 2003, and their Prospects for 2004 and Analysis of what the player could become. They list out each of that player’s rookie cards (I will just give the number of cards for the year). Although it is subjective, my favorite part of the analysis is the “Best Compared To” information. It is pretty self-explanatory, but it is basically giving the name of one major league player that the rookie is most similar to. It is pretty honest, as you will see from the Twins rookies. For instance Cubs top OF prospect Felix Pie is Best Compared To Carlos Beltran. However, Ranger pitching “prospect” Keith Stamler is Best Compared To former Twin Willie Banks. I don’t know if I would be real excited about collecting his cards!

So, let’s get to the analysis from Beckett Baseball Card Monthly’s Rookie Card Rolodex on the 21 players in the Minnesota Twins organization who had rookie cards in 2003 (in alphabetical order). For further information on these players, be sure to check out my thoughts on some of them in my minor league 2003 season review.

Justin Arneson - 22 year old right handed 2B out of Fergus Falls (MN) Community College

                2003 - hit .256-3-29 with 10 SB at Rookie-Elizabethton

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-Season Class A

                Analysis - Reserve Infielder

                Best Compared To - Shane Halter

                Rookie Cards - 2.

Scott Baker - 22 year old, 6-4 right handed pitcher was the Twins 2^nd round pick in ’03 from Oklahoma St.

                2003 - 3-1, 2.49 ERA with 47 K in 51 IP at Quad Cities

                Prospects for 2004 - High Class A

                Analysis - Solid Starter in rotation

                Best Compared To - Brad Radke

                Rookie Cards - 1

JD Durbin - 21 year old righty was the Twins 2^nd round pick in 2000.

                2003 - Combined 15-5, 3.12 ERA, 139 K in 182 IP at Ft. Myers and New Britain

                Prospects for 2004 - Triple-A with possible major league callup

                Analysis - Top of the rotation starter

                Best Compared To - Roy Oswalt

                Rookie Cards - 8    

Willie Eyre - 25 year old right-hander was Twins 23^rd Round pick in 1999.

                2003 - Combined 6-7, 3.96 ERA, 89 K in 120.1 IP between AA and AAA.

                Prospects for 2004 - Back at Triple-A

                Analysis - Middle Reliever

                Best Compared To - Kyle Farnsworth

                Rookie Cards - 20  

Lew Ford - 27 year old OF was the 12^th round pick of the Red Sox in 1999, traded to Twins in 2000.

                2003 - .303-3-31 in 211 AB in minors - .329-3-15 in 73 big league AB.

                Prospects for 2004 - Majors

                Analysis - Good hitter who has earned shot at starting outfielder position; power should improve with experience.

                Best Compared To - Shannon Stewart

                Rookie Cards - 36. 

Angel Garcia - 20 year old, 6-7 righty was the Twins 4^th round pick in 2001 out of Puerto Rico

                2003 - 2-1, 2.89 ERA, 44 K in 37.1 IP at A ball

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-season Class A

                Analysis - #2 starter at full maturity

                Best Compared To - Derek Lowe

                Rookie Cards - 2.   

Dusty Gomon - 21 year old, big power hitting 1B was Twins 9^th round pick in 2001

                2003 - .219-17-64 combined on the two Class A teams

                Prospects for 2004 - Full Season Class A

                Analysis - Incredible power, but incredibly raw talent

                Best Compared To - Butch Huskey

                Rookie Cards - 4    

Brent Hoard -27 year old 6-4 lefty was the Twins 3^rd round pick in 1998 out of Stanford

                2003 - 3-5, 4.97 ERA, 35 K in 70.2 IP between AA and AAA

                Prospects for 2004 - Back at AAA with major league callup

                Analysis - 5^th starter or middle reliever

                Best Compared To - Billy Traber

                Rookie Cards - 10  

Jason Kubel - 21 year old top OF prospect was Twins 12^th round pick in 2000

                2003 - .298/5/82 in 420 at bats at Ft. Myers

                Prospects for 2004 - AA

                Analysis - Starting OF in majors

                Best Compared To - Bobby Higgonson

                Rookie Cards - 12  

Jose Morales - 20 year old catcher was Twins 3^rd round pick in 2001 out of Puerto Rico

                2003 - .288/2/27 in 212 at bats between Quad City and Ft. Myers

                Prospects for 2004 - Class A to open season

                Analysis - Backup catcher to Joe Mauer in MN

                Best Compared To - Mitch Meluskey

                Rookie Cards - 5    

Matt Moses - 18 year old 3B was the Twins #1 pick in 2003 out of Richmond, VA

                2003 - .385-0-11 in 65 at bats in the Gulf Coast League

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-Season Class A

                Analysis - Don’t let the power numbers fool you, he can hit for average and drive the ball; still maturing as hitter

                Best Compared To - Corey Koskie

                Rookie Cards - 1    

Michael Nakamura -27 year old side-winding righy was signed as an undrafted free agent in 1997.

                2003 - 6-6, 2.99 ERA with 95 K in 78.1 IP in AAA, 0-0, 7.82 ERA with 14 K in 12.2 IP for Twins

                Prospects for 2004 - Possibly majors or back to AAA

                Analysis - Middle Reliever

                Best Compared To - Chad Bradford

                Rookie Cards - 8    

Trent Oeltjen - 20 year old was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2001 from Australia

                2003 - .298-4-44, 29 stolen bases in 466 at bats at Ft. Myers

                Prospects for 2004 - AA

                Analysis - Starting OF with 20+ steals a season in majors

                Best Compared To - Carl Crawford

                Rookie Cards - 5    

Jon Pridie - 24 year old, 6-4 righty was Twins 11^th round pick in 1998.

                2003 - 6-9, 5.19 ERA with 65 K in 111 IP in AA

                Prospects for 2004 - AAA

                Analysis - #3 or #4 starter in rotation

                Best Compared To - Jason Johnson

                Rookie Cards - 4.   

Alex Prieto  - the 27 year old utility infielder was signed as a free agent in 1992 out of Venezuela. Signed with Twins as free agent in 2002.

                2003 - .265-5-21 in AAA, 1-11 for Twins

                Prospects for 2004 - AAA

                Analysis - Reserve infielder

                Best Compared To - Wilson Delgado

                Rookie Cards - 5.   

Mike Ryan - 26 year old OF was Twins 5^th round pick in 1996

                2003 - .225-15-60 in 408 AB in AAA, .393-5-13 in 61 Twins at bats

                Prospects for 2004 - Will get chance at majors again

                Analysis - 4^th OF and DH

                Best Compared To - Jeromy Burnitz

                Rookie Cards - 10  

David Shinskie -18 year old, 6-4 righty was Twins 4^th round pick in 2003

                2003 - 1-4, 7.41 ERA, 12 K in 17 IP in the Gulf Coast League

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-Season A

                Analysis - Former QB prospect has arm to find niche in middle of the rotation

                Best Compared To - Jimmy Haynes

                Rookie Cards - 1    

Ryan Spataro - 21 year old, left-handed hitting OF was Twins 41^st round pick in 2001 from Barrie, Ontario

                2003 - .239-4-22, with 12 stolen bases, in 205 at bats with Rookie-Elizabethton

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-Season Class A

                Analysis - 4^th OF

                Best Compared To - Matt Lawton

                Rookie Cards - 2    

Terry Tiffee - 24 year old 3B was Twins 26^th round pick in 1999

                2003 - .315-14-93 in 530 at bats at AA New Britain

                Prospects for 2004 - AAA with major league callup

                Analysis - Possible starter at 3B in majors but could also play 1B

                Best Compared To - Bill Mueller

                Rookie Cards - 7    

Scott Tyler - 6-6 21 year old righty was Twins 2^nd round pick in 2001

                2003 - 6-12, 5.50 ERA with 110 K in 106.1 IP at A ball

                Prospects for 2004 - Hi-Class A

                Analysis - Needs better control to stay in rotation, could be used as closer in future

                Best Compared To - Carlos Zambrano

                Rookie Cards - 6    

Johnny Woodard - 6-4, 18 year old left-handed hitting 1B, was Twins 3^rd round pick in 2003

                2003 - .238-1-15, 172 at bats in Gulf Coast League

                Prospects for 2004 - Full-Season Class A

                Analysis - Capable of hitting .300 w/29 HR in future

                Best Compared To - Sean Casey

                Rookie Cards - 2.   

SETH’S THOUGHTS

The Twins really seem to be patient with their really young players. The team’s first four draft picks from 2003 all have cards in the Upper Deck Prospect Premieres set. Beckett thinks they’ll play full-season A ball. The Twins generally keep these players and even some of their 2002 high school draft picks in extended spring training and wait to play them until the short-season games start. That said, I do think that Matt Moses should start at Quad Cities.

There are varying levels of rookie cards here. There are the guys like Lew Ford, Michael Ryan, Michael Nakamura and Alex Prieto that are much easier to predict their ceilings because they have made it to the big leagues already. There are the top prospects such as JD Durbin, Trent Oeltjen and Jason Kubel whose ceilings are very high, but there is still risk. There are those second tier prospects like Terry Tiffee and Willie Eyre, who could contribute, but probably won’t be stars.

Then the rest? Well, they’re the high-risk ventures. You can probably buy many of their cards for fairly cheap now. They may reach their full potential next year, two years from now, or some of those 18 year olds may not get there for 5 years, if they ever get there. You may have the most potential for financial gain (if that’s why you buy cards) in getting these players. However, more often than not, these low Class A middle of the road prospects fizzle out. But everyone is looking for next year’s surprise big prospect, and maybe it will be one of the Twins.

THE OTHER PERSPECTIVE

I showed above who Beckett compared the Twins rookies to. Well, let’s turn that around and look at which prospects were compared to current (or recently traded) Twins players. I won’t include the Twins rookies mentioned as comparable to other Twins as they are already mentioned above.

          Daric Barton, C - St. Louis Cardinals - AJ Pierzynski

                Rafael Betancourt, RHP - Cleveland Indians - Grant Balfour

                Pedro Feliciano - LHP - Detroit Tigers - JC Romero

                Mike Gallo - LHP - Houston Astros - Aaron Fultz (signed by Twins yesterday)

                Shaun Marcum - RHP - Toronto Blue Jays - LaTroy Hawkins

                Aaron Marsden - LHP - Colorado Rockies - Eric Milton

                Dustin Moseley - RHP - Cincinnati Reds - Rick Reed

                Bubba Nelson - RHP - Atlanta Braves - Kyle Lohse

                Kyle Pearson - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates - Joe Mays

                Jhonny Peralta - 3B - Cleveland Indians - Chris Gomez (signed with Blue Jays)

                Omar Quintanilla - SS - Oakland A’s - Cristian Guzman

                Reggie Willits - OF - Anaheim Angels - Dustan Mohr

Those in the Minnesota/North Dakota area may know the name Aaron Marsden already. He was the 3^rd round pick in 2003 of the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Nebraska. He is from Grand Forks, ND. The lefty is highly thought of in baseball circles.

Any thoughts on Beckett’s analysis, or my thoughts, or any of these players? If there are bloggers from other team’s web sites who would like similar analysis for player’s in their organization, please let me know. E-mail me.
 

MORE TWINS PROSPECT RATINGS

Fox Sports has determined the Top 10 Prospects by position (and 5 honorable mention) in all of baseball. I should point out that they have not rated the outfielders yet, and there could be several Twins players on that list, including Michael Cuddyer, Lew Ford, Michael Restovich, Josh Rabe, Jason Kubel, Trent Oeltjien, and Alex Romero. Several Twins made the other lists, and here they are:

·         Catcher - #1 - Joe Mauer

·         First Base - #1 - Justin Morneau

·         Third Base - Honorable Mention - Matt Moses

·         Shortstop - Honorable Mention - Jason Bartlett

·         Left-Handers - Honorable Mention - Francisco Liriano

·         Relief Pitchers

·         #2 - Jesse Crain

·         #3 - Grant Balfour

·         #9 - Michael Nakamura

Any thoughts? E-mail me.
 

OTHER BASEBALL GOINGS ON

There have been a number of transactions and announcements in baseball the last few days. Here I will discuss just a few of them.

Roberto Alomar signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Originally, I didn’t understand why Arizona would want Alomar, who has had two terrible seasons in a row, especially since he made $8 million last year. Well, turns out that the contract was for just 1 year and $1 million, of which $350,000 will be deferred. At that price, I would be more than willing to take Alomar on the chance that he is about to get his career back on track!

There are a number of the better relievers signing in the past couple of days:

·         Cleveland signed Jose Jiminez to presumably be their closer. Doesn’t scare me.

·         Former Twin Mike Lincoln signed with the Cardinals. Good signing for them. He came on and wasn’t too bad last year.

·         The White Sox signed Cliff Politte. Now, this is a good signing for the White Sox. I mean, Politte won’t be the savior, but he is a very solid relief pitcher.

·         The Toronto Blue Jays signed Terry Adams. I have been impressed with JP Ricciardi’s moves this offseason. He is grabbing a number of really good players at below market prices, and Terry Adams will really be able to help the Jays.

·         Those who have been to the Dickie Thon Twins Fan Forum  know that there has been much discussion about how a knuckleballer could be successful in the Dome. Steve Sparks signed with the Diamondbacks before Christmas, which left just one knuckler available. Well, yesterday, the Houston Astros signed Jared Fernandez, so that dream is over!

The Seattle Mariners got rid of Carlos Guillen. Clearly, they have been trying to get anyone to take him. Well, yesterday the Detroit Tigers acquired Guillen (a solid hitter, solid SS) for SS Ramon Santiago and minor leaguer Juan Gonzalez.  Santiago is an average defensive SS and a terrible hitter. Great trade for the Tigers! So, why would the Mariners make the deal? Well, shortly after the trade was consummated, Seattle announced the signing of SS Rich Aurilia to a one-year deal. He signed for a fair amount, and if he returns anywhere near his 2001 stats, it is a steal for the M’s.

To me though, the big news of the day happened down in Tampa. The signed DH/1B/OF Aubrey Huff to a 3 year, $14.5 million contract. The deal will take him through his arbitration years. Huff has been a great hitter for the past two seasons. He gets the financial guarantee of $14.5 million, but the Rays also get benefit from signing him now. He will hit, and in arbitration in the next two years, Huff probably would have cost even more than the $14.5 million that he is getting. Good deal for both sides, and great news for the Devil Rays and their fans!

Finally, it was announced that former All Star and MVP Mo Vaughn will not be able to play in the 2004 season for the Mets, and probably won’t be able to play in 2005 either because of his arthritic knee. Vaughn has been called a lot of names the past few years, however, most are undeserved. I really don’t think that people understand just how good he was for an 8-10 year period.

Mo Vaughn was a 3 time All-Star. He won the 1995 AL MVP when he hit .300/.388/.575 with 39 homers and 126 RBI in the shortened 140 game season. I should point out that in the period in Boston from 1994-1998, his 1995 OPS+ of 145 was actually the lowest of those years. In other words, Mo Vaughn, in his peak five years, can put his numbers up against most of the greats of the game.

Let’s look at his 8 years from 1993-2000 (which, Anaheim fans, includes his two seasons in Anaheim). In those years, he averaged 28 doubles, 35 homers and 111 RBI while hitting .304.

What about his overall career numbers?  How does .293/.383/.523 with 328 homers and 1,064 RBI sound? And, yes, he was a big man, but a big man who could flat-out hit. His defense was certainly questioned, wasn’t it? Well, if you look at his career fielding percentage of .988 (compared to league average of .992), that’s fairly average. The number that surprised me, and probably further makes me question its credibility, is his Range Factor. His career range factor was 8.92, compared to the league average of 8.50. That’s significantly better than average!

So, I’m sure many have developed their opinions of Mo Vaughn, and clearly, you’re entitled to that. But no matter what those thoughts may be, NO ONE can say that he was not a GREAT baseball player!

Any comments on any of my thoughts? Any other baseball topics you would like to discuss? Please e-mail me.
 

NFL “EXPERT” PLAYOFF PICKS

Last week, in the Wild Card weekend games, four of our experts were 4-0. They will attempt to do the same this week. Here are the matchups along with our picks:

Summary:

Carolina @ St. Louis - Rams 8-1

Green Bay @ Philadelphia - Eagles 6-3

Tennessee @ New England - Patriots 7-2

Indianapolis @ Kansas City - Colts 7-2
 

GLEEMAN’S GUESTS

As I mentioned earlier in the week, Aaron Gleeman recently celebrated his 21^st birthday and spent this week in Las Vegas. He set up a number of guest columnists for his site for this week. The writing was great, so if you missed any of those days, be sure to check them out here:

·         Monday - John Sickels discusses how he grew to like the Twins as well as talking about the current Twins

·         Tuesday - Texas A&M student and blogger Ryan Levy discusses “How I remember Josh Beckett”

·         Wednesday - Tony Pierce gives an interesting perspective on some baseball topics

·         Thursday - Matthew Namee, a research assistant of Bill James, writes about the best double-play combinations of all-time - Baseball’s Greatest Keystone Combos

·         Friday - Namee continues by discussing the worst double-play combos of all-time. Both articles are well worth the read! Keystone Chasms, includes thoughts on the Twins Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas.
 

WOLVES WIN AGAIN

Last night, the Wolves appeared on a nationally televised game on TNT, hosting the Portland Trailblazers in another important Western Conference game. The Wolves got off to a huge 15-2 lead early and held on throughout the game, frequently increasing the lead to as much as 25 points, on their way to the 96-75 win. Kevin Garnett led with 26 points and 14 rebounds. Latrell Sprewell scored 25 points. Sam Cassell added 10 points and 11 assists. The rest of the team all contributed to the win as well.

The win brings the Wolves to 23-11, and just ½ game behind the San Antonio Spurs, 4 games ahead of the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks in the Midwest Division.

The lone negative with the Wolves was that they waived Keith McLeod, who I think really has performed well. Basically, they had to waive him yesterday or guarantee his contract for the rest of the season. They then signed point guard Anthony Goldwire out of the CBA to a 10-day contract. My guess is that Goldwire will last the 10 days and then he will be waived and McLeod will be brought back to a series of 10-day contracts. I hope that is the case anyway.

GOPHERS BASKETBALL

The Men lost on the road to a terrible Penn St. team on Wednesday night 75-72. Ick!

But the women? Well, they won last night at Northwestern in their second Big 10 game 72-40. Lindsay Whalen scored 21 points. The 6^th ranked Gophers improved to 13-0 on the season, their best start ever.

Any thoughts? E-mail me.

Well, I could write much more, but this is plenty long. I hope that everyone out there has a great weekend (and tells all of their friends and anyone you know who enjoys sports about this site!!!)! If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me!

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