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Friday, January 6, 2006

SethSpeaks 2006

Twins Projections

Good morning everyone!  (for today's posting, I have some tables that get a little wide, so you will likely have to scroll to the left and right to see the whole thing. I apologize for this, but didn't see any way around it at this time. Thanks for understanding.)

I'm not exactly sure what the reaction will be to today's posting. I have been thinking a little about fantasy baseball in recent weeks. It is getting close (ok, it is still about two months away from most drafts, but that's ok). Do you ever go out and buy those fantasy baseball magazines? You spend like $8 to get some information on players that, if you follow baseball like many of us do, you already know 98% of it. If you're like me, the only reason you actually bought these magazines is for the cheat sheets and big lists of names. But as soon as you fork out the money, you realize that there are other sources where you can get these big lists as well, for free.

The interesting things for me though are the sites and stats pages where they try to project what each player will do the following year. No matter how elaborate the formula is that goes into these projections, the fact is that they are all nothing but guesses for what a player will do. It can not factor in injuries or natural baseball adjustments that happen for every player in their careers. For many, age 28 is the best year of their career and they maintain a similar level of performance until they turn 31 or 32. Of course, catchers fall off earlier in most cases. But there are exceptions to every case. There is no way to know that Eric Hinske was going to become a flop after his first season. There is no more reason to assume that Jason Bay was going to become the star that he became in Year #2. I have seen projections that involve so many equations. I have seen projections that give a percentage of increase or decrease based solely on a player's age.

Anyway, that is enough background. I figured that I would try my luck at the projection game. I will take the 2006 Minnesota Twins and try to project how each player will do. What were my projections based on? Well, I used a number of factors to determine the numbers. First, I used their age. Secondly, I looked at past history to get a better gauge of where the player has been. I also then factor in their projected place in the Twins lineup and who will likely hit before and after them. I consider injury history and age to determine how many games they'll play. Where they hit in the lineup to determine at bats, walks and how many Runs and RBI opportunities they will have. And you know what I did last? I just made a part educated, part all-out, guess. I am curious as to how my projections match up with other people's and site's projections for these players.

I'll be honest, I have only seen one projection so far. It was for Joe Mauer and I thought some of the numbers were ridiculously low, so that is what made me try my hand at this. So, if anyone has a site or two where I can find these projections, please send me the link. Thanks! Of course, these numbers are subject to change. For instance, if the Twins do trade for Corey Koskie, it will obviously affect the statistics of Tony Batista and likely Rondell White. If someone gets injured in spring training, that would affect their time as well.

TWINS 2006 HITTERS PROJECTIONS

Let's start with the hitters. I project a primary lineup of:

Shannon Stewart

Luis Castillo

Joe Mauer

Rondell White

Torii Hunter

Justin Morneau

Tony Batista

Michael Cuddyer/Lew Ford/Jason Kubel

Jason Bartlett

I will follow my projections with just a few thoughts:

Pos	Age*	Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2B	30	Luis Castillo	142	524	82	156	14	5	3	189	38	58	32	26	14	0.298	0.368	0.361	0.728
1B	24	Justin Morneau	157	573	79	154	32	2	33	289	102	67	132	1	1	0.269	0.345	0.504	0.850
OF	32	Shannon Stewart	129	511	67	147	24	2	9	202	43	42	58	5	3	0.288	0.342	0.395	0.737
OF	30	Torii Hunter	145	549	76	138	28	2	25	245	73	54	111	17	12	0.251	0.318	0.446	0.765
OF/DH	34	Rondell White	149	576	61	165	32	2	22	267	81	44	78	1	1	0.286	0.337	0.464	0.801
3B	32	Tony Batista	151	597	71	137	24	1	26	241	68	22	84	5	5	0.229	0.257	0.404	0.661
C	22	Joe Mauer	135	503	72	157	33	2	15	239	73	71	52	12	3	0.312	0.397	0.475	0.872
SS	26	Jason Bartlett	138	442	57	126	24	6	8	186	43	47	79	17	9	0.285	0.354	0.421	0.775
IF/OF	27	Michael Cuddyer	108	308	38	83	21	1	11	139	35	32	59	4	2	0.269	0.338	0.451	0.790
OF	29	Lew Ford	98	256	33	73	17	3	8	120	19	29	54	10	4	0.285	0.358	0.469	0.827
C	34	Mike Redmond	51	161	21	42	8	0	3	59	18	8	17	0	0	0.261	0.296	0.366	0.662
OF	23	Jason Kubel	54	143	12	44	12	0	5	71	27	22	21	0	1	0.308	0.400	0.497	0.897
IF	33	Juan Castro	82	155	14	41	3	0	2	50	16	12	18	0	0	0.265	0.317	0.323	0.640
C	31	Chris Heintz	8	12	2	3	1	0	0	4	3	0	3	0	0	0.250	0.250	0.333	0.583
IF	28	Glenn Williams	15	38	5	11	2	1	0	15	5	4	4	0	0	0.289	0.357	0.395	0.752
IF	26	Terry Tiffee	21	23	4	4	1	0	0	5	3	0	5	0	0	0.174	0.174	0.217	0.391
IF	25	Luis Rodriguez	41	97	12	27	6	1	1	38	14	8	7	1	2	0.278	0.333	0.392	0.725
OF	22	Alex Romero	5	11	1	3	0	0	0	3	2	1	3	0	0	0.273	0.333	0.273	0.606
IF	28	Nick Punto	68	147	15	30	4	1	1	39	12	13	31	3	2	0.204	0.269	0.265	0.534
	28.2	Total	1,697	5,626	722	1,541	286	29	172	2,401	675	534	848	102	59	0.274	0.337	0.427	0.764
*Age on Opening Day

 

SUMMARY

As you can see, I am projecting that:

• Luis Castillo will miss some time, but when he is in there, he will do a good job of getting on base.

• Justin Morneau will stay healthy and productive. He won't hit for a real high average, but his batter's eye will improve and he will finally give the Twins a 30+ homer hitter.

• Shannon Stewart will have a year very similar to last year. It won't be a complete bust, but also won't be the return of what he was for about a year with the Twins. However, as expected, he will miss plenty of games.

• Torii Hunter will have a couple of minor injuries and a few days off. He will again hit for a low average, but because of his athleticism, he will get plenty of extra base hits to fool some into thinking he is good.

• Rondell White's projections may surprise some. His numbers are very solid. The most surprising stat might be the 149 games meaning that he will stay mostly healthy, just missing games from time to time to stay fresh.

• Tony Batista will again put up Luis Rivas-like numbers. Look at the .661 OPS and the .257 On-Base Percentage. Horrible. However, because he will hit more than 20 homers, Gardy will keep him in the lineup.

• Joe Mauer will be, again, behind only Victor Martinez in terms of offensive catchers. Good batting average, great on-base percentage and enough doubles to go with his 15 homers to have a very solid slugging percentage.

• I think that Gardy will start the season playing Jason Bartlett three out of every four games or so, and probably even pinch hit for him at times. But as the season goes on, he will truly earn all of his playing time with a solid batting average and that excellent Isolated on-base percentage.

• I am not sure yet what will happen with the RF position. My assumption, as of today, is that Michael Cuddyer will start the season as the regular with Lew Ford getting some starts. Because he will have less at bats, his basic numbers are lower, but his on-base and slugging percentages will be excellent.

• I think that Lew Ford will get plenty of time in right, some time in left because of frequent Stewart injuries and Hunter days off. He will continue to have excellent plate discipline, which Gardy will likely not notice.

• Mike Redmond can not duplicate his impressive 2005 season, can he? Mauer will play a little more, and Redmond will continue to be an excellent backup, even though his numbers may not show it.

• Jason Kubel is another huge question mark. If he wins the RF job out of training camp, obviously his playing time and stats will be greatly increased. However, as of today, I think that he will have to be incredible to leave training camp with the Twins. In an effort to be patient with the still young Kubel, they should send him to Rochester for a month or two to get his confidence and timing back. That said, if Kubel wins the starting job, it will be the culmination of an incredible comeback.

• Juan Castro will make appearances in half the games, but he will get very little regular playing time. Think about it, Batista will get too many chances at 3B, and Luis Castillo will get most of the time at 2B. If I believe Jason Bartlett will break out, that means that Castro won't play a lot, and probably will come in as a defensive replacement a lot.

• Nick Punto will return to a utility role. He may get a lot of time early in the season, but he will be a major flop. Of course, that doesn't require much of a drop-off from last year. I question if he will stay with the team the full season.

• I will say the same thing about Terry Tiffee. He will probably start with the team and get some pinch hit at bats, but he will again not hit, so he won't stick too long.

• That then means that Luis Rodriguez will rejoin the team after a couple of months and will be very good. He will play solid defense and put together more quality at bats.

• Glenn Williams would replace Tiffee as a pinch hitter on the roster. I am going to go out on a limb and say that his hitting streak will come to an end, but he will be productive.

• Alex Romero and Chris Heintz will be September call-ups and both will get a few at bats. Of course, if there is an injury to a catcher, Heintz will be the first one called upon. If there is an outfield injury, it is likely that the Twins would recall Jason Tyner first.

• The odds are that things will happen throughout the season that are currently unforeseen; an injury, a trade, a breakout. Because of such things, other players may get a chance with the team.

• In 2005, the Twins scored 688 runs. By this projection, the Twins will score 34 more runs. Now, that may not seem like a lot, but how many one-run games could have been run with that? How many more wins could have Santana, Silva and Radke had?

• Terry Ryan admitted that huge changes were not needed. He made minor moves in an attempt to improve the offense. Should these numbers be right, it is a small improvement in both on-base and slugging numbers to go along with more runs.

• Any other thoughts? Leave some comments, or send me an e-mail.    

TWINS 2006 PITCHERS PROJECTIONS

 

Alright, now let's move to the pitchers. Can they be as good as last year? Can they be better?

 

I will also follow my projections with just a few thoughts:

 

Pos	Age*	Name	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	S	WHIP	BAA	ERA	K/BB	K/9	BB/9
SP	27	Johan Santana	34	34	4	2	225.7	177	78	71	22	53	237	21	8	0	1.02	0.194	2.83	4.47	9.45	2.11
SP	33	Brad Radke	24	24	1	0	151.3	181	77	72	23	23	87	12	7	0	1.35	0.281	4.28	3.78	5.18	1.37
SP	26	Carlos Silva	33	33	5	1	228.7	268	100	93	26	24	108	15	11	0	1.28	0.291	3.66	4.50	4.25	0.94
SP	27	Kyle Lohse	34	34	3	1	202.3	198	95	89	31	59	117	16	9	0	1.27	0.269	3.96	1.98	5.21	2.62
SP	24	Scott Baker	32	32	1	0	186.7	203	93	84	27	49	128	11	10	0	1.35	0.275	4.05	2.61	6.17	2.36
SP	22	Francisco Liriano	48	5	0	0	74.0	65	37	34	8	26	89	6	4	0	1.23	0.255	4.14	3.42	10.82	3.16
CL	31	Joe Nathan	72	0	0	0	70.7	44	21	19	4	21	92	2	4	47	0.92	0.176	2.42	4.38	11.71	2.67
RP	27	Juan Rincon	79	0	0	0	81.3	62	26	22	4	29	93	2	3	2	1.12	0.208	2.44	3.21	10.30	3.21
RP	24	Jesse Crain	75	0	0	0	79.7	70	27	24	9	23	48	3	5	2	1.17	0.243	2.71	2.09	5.42	2.60
RP	27	Matt Guerrier	52	0	0	0	67.7	64	34	31	6	20	53	1	4	0	1.24	0.271	4.12	2.65	7.05	2.66
RP	28	Dennys Reyes	36	0	0	0	33.7	41	23	21	6	19	28	0	4	0	1.78	0.302	5.61	1.47	7.48	5.07
RP	27	Willie Eyre	38	0	0	0	48.7	54	31	30	8	15	39	1	3	0	1.42	0.283	5.54	2.60	7.21	2.77
RP	25	Pat Neshek	8	0	0	0	9.3	9	6	5	1	3	9	0	0	1	1.29	0.297	4.84	3.00	8.71	2.90
	26.8		162	162	14	4	1,460	1,436	648	595	175	364	1,128	90	72	52	1.23	0.279	3.67	3.10	6.95	2.24
*Age on Opening Day

 

SUMMARY

As you can see, I am projecting that:

• Johan Santana will continue to pitch at a Cy Young level. Hopefully the increased runs scored will help Santana get more "Wins" to help his candidacy. His K/9 will still be just over one an inning. His numbers across the board will continue to be great.

• As you can see, I see Brad Radke missing a number of starts and falling short of 200 innings. He may go on the DL once or twice, but not with anything major. I believe him when he says this will be his final season, and I expect him to be solid, but not as excellent as the last couple of years. I just think that his shoulder problem could show up a few times causing him to miss a start here and there to be strong by the season's end.

• Carlos Silva will remain strong all season. He will complete a number of games just because of how few pitches he throws. He will rack up innings because of low pitch counts. He will give up a lot of hits, but again will not walk many (although more than his record-breaking 2005 season). He will actually accumulate a bunch of decisions which did not happen a year ago.

• The biggest surprise you probably saw when you read through my pitching projections was with Kyle Lohse's numbers. At this stage, I am assuming that Lohse will be with the team the whole year. If that is the case, he is very durable and will make his starts. If that is the case, I predict a very solid season for him. 16 wins would be great! It is especially good since his ERA is near four! Scott Boras will be smiling... big!

• I think that Scott Baker makes the most sense as the fifth starter. He more than deserves the job and I assume that he will be able to make all of his starts. The team will be cautious with him, limiting pitch counts and innings, especially early in the year. His ERA will be just over four, but that will still be far better than league average.

• You may also be surprised with my predictions for Francisco Liriano. I am against Liriano being in the Twins bullpen, and that is what Terry Ryan is saying as well. However, when I see that Dennys Reyes and Gabe White are the other options for a lefty-reliever position, I think Liriano will make some relief appearances. You have to like his strikeout rate. He will make starts when Radke misses time and do well. I have his ERA a little high just because he is likely to have a bad inning or two in relief which really hurts a reliever's ERA. Maybe this is a way to limit his innings, but again, I want him to start.

• Joe Nathan will again be one of the best closers in baseball. Because of the team's increased wins (and close wins), his Saves numbers could be very high. Excellent WHIP, ERA, K-rate and more. He just continues to be great!

• Juan Rincon continues to dominate, and hopefully the Twins will sign him for another year before the season is over.

• Check out my projection for Jesse Crain's K/9 number! 5.42. That is still not good for a reliever, but it is a huge improvement from last year. I just have to believe that with his stuff, that number has to increase. And, his Win total last year just reiterates how overrated that stat is!

• Matt Guerrier moves up the bullpen ladder a bit. He will get a few more innings, and more tight situation innings. I think that he will be fine, and I also think that he will find a way to get his first Win.

• Dennys Reyes (or Gabe White because they are similar) will make the team because Gardy feels the need to have a lefty in the pen. Neither would be good, and there is a chance that neither will be with the team by August!

• I think Willie Eyre will take over Guerrier's role from last year, some mop up innings in blowouts. He will put up solid, but unspectacular numbers. But again, he can eat those innings that aren't very important and hopefully do as well as Guerrier did in 2005.

• And finally, I think that friend of SethSpeaks Pat Neshek will get a September call-up. If the Twins fall out of contention, he could get some significant innings.

• Overall, the pitching staff with give up 14 less runs than even a year ago.

• You may see that overall record of 90-72 and think that is crazy. I mean, they only added a few more runs and gave up a few less. But I took the time to put the runs scored and runs allowed projections into the Pythagorean equation and it gives a record of 90-72, so that is right on.

• 90-72 is excellent, even better than the 82-80 that they were last year. But will that put them in the playoffs? You have to assume that both the White Sox and Indians have a chance to win 95-98 games in 2006. So, it could be an interesting season in the AL Central. 90 wins would likely finish second in the AL East behind the Yankees, and possibly in first in the AL West.  

So, do you have any thoughts on these projections? Am I overestimating some players potential? Am I undervaluing other players? Who will get a shot? Who will the team get rid of? Can the Twins win 90 games, and even if they do, will that put them in the playoffs, or will they fall short?

Please feel free to leave some Comments on your thoughts. If nothing else, we can look back to this page in July and then in September and see how we all did. That's always fun. If you would like to send me some file of your projections, please e-mail it to me, and I'll be happy to keep it next to mine so we can look at it later in the year.

On that note, I am going to call it a day, but first, I am going to post my NFL score guesses while I'm into this prognostication thing. But first, to no one's surprise, the Vikings are about to name Brad Childress their next head coach. He was the Offensive Coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, and this is an excellent choice. I'm just glad that they didn't chose some retread for the job. Now to my football picks:

NFC: Washington 27, Tampa Bay 16 - Carolina 24, NY Giants 13.

AFC: New England 38, Jacksonville 14 - Cincinnati 34, Pittsburgh 28.

Have yourself a wonderful weekend, and we'll be back on Monday!

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