Thursday, January 3, 2007

Where Would They Rank?

A couple of days ago, I asked people to think of possible articles for the website, things that you would like to see or read. A few people have e-mailed me some great ideas, but I really liked one in particular. The following e-mail came from a reader named Ben and it involves a couple of things that I enjoy writing about, trade rumors (even though I’m a bit tired of it too now) and minor leaguers. Here is the question

Hi Seth,

I've read quite a bit about the players being offered for Santana (that horse is almost dead), but it's hard to put them into context.  It would be nice to see them compared with Twins players - maybe give an example of a comparable player in the Twins system, or say where they would rank in the Twins list of prospects.  Maybe a guess at how they would score on the Twins evaluation scale?

Thanks,

Ben

Like I said, I thought this was a great question and it made me do some thinking. I’m not going to rehash my entire Top 50 Twins prospect list in great detail, but I would like to think about any names that have been involved in Johan Santana rumors and plot out where I think they would rank within the Twins system. So, first, I will review most of the names mentioned in potential Johan Santana trade rumors. Some of these names were barely mentioned. Some may not actually have been on the table.

New York Yankees – Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez, Alberto Gonzalez, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson

Boston Red Sox – Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Ryan Kalish

New York Mets – Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra

Seattle Mariners – Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Jeff Clement

What I will do next is plot out my Top 50 as it was in September when I wrote it. Then I will plot in where I would put the guys from the other teams. Please note that this is just my opinion. Like any prospect ranking, it is subject to debate and discussion. Also, many of these guys will appear ahead of my #1 Twins prospect, Tyler Robertson. That is not a knock on Robertson or any of the other Twins prospects at all. What it shows is the type of talent that teams will be required to give up for Johan Santana. So, with that, let’s see the list. It will include the name, the current team of a rumored player and a ceiling comparison.

Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox – Dwight Gooden (the good years)

Philip Hughes – New York Yankees – Roger Clemens

Adam Jones – Seattle Mariners – Andruw Jones

Fernando Martinez – New York Mets – Ken Griffey Jr

Carlos Gomez – New York Mets – Carlos Beltran

Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox – Johnny Damon

Deolis Guerra – New York Mets – Pedro Martinez

Jose Tabata – New York Yankees – Andre Dawson

1.) Tyler Robertson

2.) Anthony Swarzak

Jeff Clement – Seattle Mariners – Paul Konerko (at his best)

Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox – Andy Pettitte

Jed Lowrie – Boston Red Sox – Dustin Pedroia with more pop

Ian Kennedy – New York Yankees – Kevin Slowey

3.) Trevor Plouffe

Kevin Mulvey – New York Mets – Jon Garland

Jeff Marquez – New York Yankees – Freddy Garcia

4.) Brian Duensing

5.) Jeff Manship

Michael Bowden – Boston Red Sox – Jake Peavy

6.) Chris Parmelee

7.) Danny Valencia

8.) Alex Burnett

9.) Joe Benson

Brandon Morrow – Seattle Mariners – Curt Schilling

Ryan Kalish – Boston Red Sox – Austin Kearns (the good year)

Austin Jackson – New York Yankees – Jason Bay (at best)

10.) Erik Lis

11.) Eduardo Morlan – traded to Tampa

12.) Oswaldo Sosa

13.) Ben Revere

Justin Masterson – Boston Red Sox – Carlos Silva

14.) David Winfree

15.) Ryan Mullins

16.) Juan Portes

17.) Kyle Waldrop

18.) Brock Peterson

19.) Jay Rainville

20.) Brian Dinkelman

21.) David Bromberg

22.) Garrett Guzman – Rule V pick to Washington

Edwar Ramirez – New York Yankees – Trevor Hoffman

23.) Yohan Pino

24.) Deibinson Romero

25.) Dustin Martin

26.) Rene Tosoni

27.) Nick Blackburn

28.) Danny Rams

29.) Rene Leveret

30.) Denard Span

31.) Wilson Ramos

32.) Angel Morales

Alberto Gonzalez – New York Yankees – Adam Everett

33.) Ozzie Lewis

34.) Matt Tolbert

35.) Jose Mijares

36.) Mike McCardell

37.) Steven Tolleson

38.) Zach Ward

39.) Brandon Roberts

40.) Matt Moses

41.) Brian Buscher

42.) Cole DeVries

43.) Jose Morales

44.) Brian Kirwan

45.) Dan Berlind

46.) Greg Yersich

47.) Brad Tippett

48.) Trent Oeltjen – signed with Arizona

49.) Matt Macri

50.) Tim Lahey/Armando Gabino- Lahey was #1 pick in Rule V draft, trade to Cubs

Now, you will notice a couple of names missing. Mike Pelfrey is not listed. He is over the rookie innings limit so not a ‘prospect’. That said, he was the #9 pick in 2005 out of college. Matt Garza was the 26^th pick in the first round in 2005 out of college. Both can hit 97 and have secondary pitches that are in the works. So, I think there is a fair comparison between those two. Melky Cabrera is also well beyond the prospect limits. I see him as a guy to hit about .280-.300 with 15-20 homers a year. Probably a #1, #2 or #8 type of hitter in the Twins lineup, I’m not sure who a good comparison might be. Maybe a step lesser than Johnny Damon in his prime. I don’t think he is ‘just a 4^th outfielder’ as many seem to think he is.

Now, I don’t know what the Twins evaluation scale is, or how that is determined. Maybe someone reading can help us out. This isn’t the cleanest posting you’ll ever see, but I hope it makes sense and is something to start some discussion. Please comment if you have any thoughts on the list. Not so much on where the Twins rank (because I would probably make several changes myself already), but on how I rank those names. And, maybe based on that, determine which offer that is out there is most worth consideration.

And of course, keep the ideas coming!

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